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Why November Was So Mild

December 5, 2022
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By Paul Homewood

 

 

As we know, last month was much milder than average. In England it ranked 4th warmest, though well below the warmest in 1994.

However averages only tell part of the story. While the Met Office have linked it to global warming, the daily data shows a much subtler story:

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

Daily mean temperatures did not rise above the ceilings set in the majority of the past 30 years. Instead the monthly average was higher than normal because of the almost complete absence of colder than average days, particularly extremely cold ones.

This pattern is also exhibited in the three Novembers which were warmer – 1994, 2011 and 2015.

This is strong evidence that we are seeing is weather, and not climate change. If it was the latter, we would see the whole range shifting upwards. (Picture, if you will, a chart comparing temperatures in London and Newcastle).

And we see exactly the same with daily temperatures throughout this year. Apart from a few days, daily temperatures have stayed within the upper half of the “normal” band:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2022/daily_meantemp_cet_2022.png

British weather is extremely variable because of its geographic location. We can get dry and wet weather, and hot and cold weather, all dependent upon which direction the weather is coming from, and whether it is cyclonic or anti-cyclonic.

This year, for whatever reason, the warmer side of the weather spectrum has prevailed.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2022/daily_meantemp_cet_2022.png

17 Comments
  1. December 5, 2022 6:22 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  2. Jack Broughton permalink
    December 5, 2022 7:19 pm

    As the earth recovers from the LIA it is to be expected that record temperatures will occur more frequently as temperatures were not measured before the LIA. The Met office, NASA and NOAA all seem to be determined that most warming is AGW, an unproven, and probably unprovable, hypothesis, which dominates our economy now.

    • dave permalink
      December 6, 2022 11:24 am

      “As the earth recovers from the LIA…”

      This expert in the field of natural, deterministic, cycles believes that the LIA will not be over until AD 2150 and that a renewal of cooling is imminent.

      https://www.researchgate.net/project/The-Climate-Clock

      We will not be around to see how it goes, unfortunately.

    • Sylvia permalink
      December 6, 2022 2:42 pm

      Apologies for my ignorance but what is LIA ??

      • JohnM permalink
        December 6, 2022 4:21 pm

        Little Ice Age : 1760 and all that !

  3. December 5, 2022 8:05 pm

    ‘for whatever reason, the warmer side of the weather spectrum has prevailed.’

    Western Europe has benefited from La Nina effects this year. More south-westerly air streams than usual.

  4. Bob of Bonsall permalink
    December 5, 2022 8:29 pm

    “British weather is extremely variable because of its geographic location. We can get dry and wet weather, and hot and cold weather,”
    And very often on the same blooming day!!!

  5. December 5, 2022 10:42 pm

    Isn’t this what was originally proposed would happen with “global warming” slightly warmer low temperatures particularly in winter and at night. This doesn’t sound catastrophic, (sounds pretty good to me) so any new high temperature is locked on to and published with great fanfare even though this is not what increased CO2 is supposed to cause.
    With the number of recording stations in Britain and worldwide it is pretty natural that there will be a number if warmer records every year, probably colder ones too that don’t get mentioned.

  6. Jim Petch permalink
    December 6, 2022 7:38 am

    You say “This is strong evidence that we are seeing is weather, and not climate change. If it was the latter, we would see the whole range shifting upwards.

    This is just silly. it is a similar sort of error you point out yourself as the subject of the post.

  7. December 6, 2022 8:37 am

    Whenever somewhere is colder/hotter than “normal” somewhere nearby has the reverse conditions. That somewhere else is probably the Arctic, which has been exceptionally cold and snowy.

    https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/snow-extent-northern-hemisphere-highest-56-years-winter-cold-rrc/

    • December 6, 2022 2:18 pm

      Yes, but it’s parts of Siberia this time…

      Yakutia facing major anomaly
      Today, 11:00

      The Pacific snow hardly makes it to Oymyakon, but it has been extremely cold there, with the mercury falling to -57°C at night and to -53°C in the afternoon. The circumpolar vortex has also brought record low temperatures to the Khabarovsk and Amur regions and to China.

      https://www.gismeteo.com/news/climate/yakutia-facing-major-anomaly/

      Nice graphics of the polar vortex in the link.

  8. Phoenix44 permalink
    December 6, 2022 2:30 pm

    And this is the problem with the claims. No day in November was unusually or exceptionally warm. No-one can point at any given day and say that day was warmer than it would have been as a every day was within “normal range”. November was not “warmer”, only the average was. The claim by activists such as XR that the earth is therefore “burning” are just hysterical nonsense. Having a few days of about average temperature rather than a bit below average does not justify the hysterical claims in any way.

    • dennisambler permalink
      December 7, 2022 12:25 pm

      As with “warmest year” etc. If there have been no exceptionally cold months the average is warmer.

      Check out https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/JOC.7787

      “The UK mean temperature (Tmean) for 2021 was 9.3°C, which is 0.1°C above the 1991–2020 long-term average. 2021 was the 18th warmest year in the UK series from 1884. Nevertheless, it was still warmer than all but one year (1949) of this series prior to 1990. 2021 was ranked the 29th warmest year in the Central England Temperature (CET) series from 1659. The annual mean temperature was near or slightly above normal for much of the UK, and highest above normal for Northern Ireland (+0.4°C)”

      “2021 was the 18th warmest year in the UK series from 1884 and 29th warmest year in the Central England Temperature (CET) series from 1659.” So where is the CO2 induced warming and how has the climate changed?

  9. December 7, 2022 8:47 am

    Yahoo claims autumn is disappearing…guess why 🙄

    Regarded by millions of Americans as their favorite season, autumn for many regions of the United States has traditionally been marked by the gradual transition from hot summer weather to frigid winter temperatures. But in recent years, fall seems to have all but disappeared — especially in the Northeast — and experts say climate change is partly to blame.

    https://news.yahoo.com/what-happened-to-autumn-scientists-point-to-climate-change-202933722.html

    • dave permalink
      December 7, 2022 10:21 am

      UAH SAtellite figure for Globe November down 0.15 C to +0.17 C. Iam yawning.

  10. Edward Philip John Foster permalink
    December 7, 2022 4:40 pm

    And now comes colder than average December!

  11. Guy permalink
    December 11, 2022 3:52 pm

    It is also likely that urban heat island effect is part of the problem. See Dr Roy Spencers analysis of US data.

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