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UKCP Summer Temperature Projections Are Not Supported By The Data

February 8, 2023
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood


Let’s have a look at some of the other crazy projections made in UKCP09:



Let’s start with summer temperatures:



England was projected to be between 3 and 4C warmer on average by the 2080s, in comparison with 1961-90.

The actual trend so far is much less dramatic:


The current 30-year average is only 0.72C higher than 1961-90; but more significantly, it is just 0.40C higher than 1931-60.

Given this knowledge it is not credible to postulate that average temperatures will rise by another 3C or more in the next 60 years, particularly since temperatures in the hottest of summers do not appear to be increasing.

Even if every summer in the 2080s was as hot as last year, the long term average would still only be 2C higher than 1961-90.

Yet UKCP09 is still used as the basis for climate projections, and similar nonsense numbers are coming out of the most recent set of projections in UKCP18.

Are these just academic matters? No, because as UKCP18 makes clear, these projections are at the heart of government policy and planning:



It is time that DEFRA dropped the make-believe, corrupt advice from the Met Office, and employed a team of independent experts to advise them who are not tainted by self interest.

  1. GeoffB permalink
    February 8, 2023 6:04 pm

    Just what is in it for the Met office to fabricate this false scenario? Money I suppose.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      February 9, 2023 8:24 am

      I suspect for many that having started down this path of huge alarmism, they now have to keep going. Can you imagine the Met Offuce calling a meeting with the PM and saying “we think we significantly exaggerated the problem”?

      And many believe even though the data no longer support their belief. It’s La Nina or this or that or the other or we shift the goalposts to extremes with attribution studies and so we are right.

    • Bloke down the pub permalink
      February 9, 2023 11:02 am

      Power and influence. There are other obvious recent examples where little known ‘experts in their field’ are given a say in how goverment frames its policy and milk it for every drop of exposure and glory.

    • February 9, 2023 11:40 am

      Prestige. Damehoods.

  2. Cheshire Red permalink
    February 8, 2023 6:37 pm

    Paul, have you seen this beauty?

    BBC screaming from the rooftops about a ‘new study’ (it’s always a ‘study’) that references the threats that ‘Millions face threat of flooding from glacial lakes’.

    Then there’s acres of guff about what ‘could’ happen. Obviously it’s all Very Scary Indeed.

    Now go to the very last sentence of this article.

    ‘While scientists expect that glacial floods will increase as a result of human-induced climate change, there has as yet been no such increase.’

    How the heck can a screaming article claiming ‘Millions face threat of flooding from glacial lakes’ be predicated on a reality that the article actually admits, that ‘there has as yet been no such increase’?

    Textbook climate propaganda.

  3. February 8, 2023 7:00 pm

    Can these idiots not understand that we are a rather cold island and could be several degrees warmer to our great benefit?

    • Ben Vorlich permalink
      February 8, 2023 7:22 pm

      There aren’t many places across the globe that wouldn’t benefit

  4. Harry Passfield permalink
    February 8, 2023 7:00 pm

    Choosing a 30 year outlook means that many of these fools will be dead and not in any way capable of taking responsibility for their ludicrous ‘projections’.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      February 9, 2023 8:28 am

      For many supposed Greens, it doesn’t matter if the science is right, it’s about getting the political actions done. People keep trying to fight politics with science.

  5. Ben Vorlich permalink
    February 8, 2023 7:20 pm

    who are not tainted by self interest.

    You mean retired with an uninterruptible independent income stream

  6. February 8, 2023 7:28 pm

    Alas, there is no warming. All the doomsday predictions by the Climate Marxists have come and gone, and will continue to come, so long as credulous politicians let chubby, petulant teenage girls set their national energy policy. Want to know what is really happening with the weather? It is all down to the big yellow ball of fire in the sky, and according to a recent book by John L. Casey, DARK WINTER. Casey’s conclusion is we could be in for thirty years of steadily cooling temperatures. It is an excellent, well researched book, and a quick read. Sorry, Greta; it is time to get a real job.

    • Ian Wilson permalink
      February 9, 2023 8:21 am

      Absolutely! The UAH satellite data show 0.75 degree COOLING since the el Nino peak of 2015/16 and no measurable warming at all this century apart from that spike.
      In a rational world this cooling while atmospheric CO2 is still rising would bury once and for all the unproven hypothesis that the trace gas will fry us all, but alas, we are not in a rational world but one driven by hysteria and well-funded vested interests.

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        February 9, 2023 8:29 am

        That’s why it’s now about extreme weather. And since that’s just weather, they can never be wrong.

    • mikewaite permalink
      February 9, 2023 10:06 am

      I checked on Amazon for a copy . then saw that it was published in 2014 , 9 years ago . So 1/3 of the predicted 30 years cooling has come and gone and without any perceptible global cooling . Makes me slightly doubtful of his assumptions about the role of the solar input (speaking as an AGW sceptic).

      • Ian Wilson permalink
        February 9, 2023 10:48 am

        Mikewaite – please see my post above. The cooling shown on the UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville) database, which is more reliable than the terrestrial records because it’s not susceptible to urban heat island effects or the adjustments (what we called in my schooldays fiddling) is corroborated by the low temperature records being broken in many parts of the world – minus 75 degrees in Siberia, -53 in China, the country’s lowest ever, Antarctica’s winter ending September 2021 the lowest since records started with the IGY in 1957 and much more.
        There’s even been snow on Algeria’s Mediterranean coast. However the politicians won’t believe it till the Thames freezes.

      • February 9, 2023 11:17 am

        You missed one point–there is no warming. People started measuring temps in early 1800, at the start of the last warming cycle of the WEATHER, which has flattened out and will proceed to cool in Mr. Casey is correct. It is a quick read of about fifty pages followed by 100 pages of notes and appendices. Don’t be so quick to judge based on your calculation of nine years,,,,Face it, there is no warming–the climate nonsense is pure Marxism propagated by the WEF.

      • mikewaite permalink
        February 9, 2023 12:15 pm

        Billy and Ian
        Thank you for your replies. I had hoped someone would try to convince me out of my pessimism. At the moment my feelings , as a mere layperson , are that there is a very mild warming effect due to increased CO2 , countered by the down slope of the latest AMO peak giving an apparent stalling of the warming , though that is arguably more applicable to the Northern hemisphere and UK in particular than to the whole globe.

  7. dfhunter permalink
    February 8, 2023 11:55 pm

    for a laugh, can’t help but link to –

    these are the great minds in climate science us plebs are up against.

  8. stevejay permalink
    February 9, 2023 8:17 am

    We’ve all seen the doomsday predictions going back over 50 years. Not a single one of them has come true. These Marxist, so called, environmentalists should read up on science and geological history. That goes for our useless politicians, who are pushing our country into a third world backwater.

  9. Phoenix44 permalink
    February 9, 2023 8:22 am

    If we take the Alarmists at their word, that there was no 60s-70s “cooling” because of aerosols or whatever, I’m struggling to see any increase since the 1930s?

    The 30 year trend is only upwards because of the cooling period. Which supposedly didn’t happen.

  10. Derek T permalink
    February 9, 2023 3:19 pm

    It looks as though the Met Office need to “hide the decline”! This post is very important and needs to be seen by a much wider audience. I was not aware of this until I read it here.

  11. Athelstan permalink
    February 9, 2023 4:27 pm

    100% drivel, still the mongs er sorry mps will lap it all up.

  12. theturquoiseowl permalink
    February 9, 2023 11:37 pm

    I thought CET’s one-time UHI fudge of 0.5C makes it virtually meaningless.

  13. Ulric Lyons permalink
    February 13, 2023 7:18 pm

    The Met Office say that heatwaves like in 2003 and 2018 will happen every other year by 2050. I say that they were discretely solar driven:

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