Yet Another Coffee Scare
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness
More drivel from the Telegraph:
Every morning, before doing anything else, I make coffee. It’s a ritual as much as a caffeine fix, with little thought given to its provenance. Yet this morning, I’ve got my hands on something a little different. Lighter in colour than my usual jet-black brew, it is more nuanced in flavour, with hints of grapefruit and less bitterness. It is delicious. It may also secure the future of one of the world’s most popular drinks.
In Britain, we drink about 98 million cups per day, with an estimated two billion consumed worldwide. The coffee industry sustains 210,000 jobs here, and around 100 million farmers depend on it globally. From instant coffee at a greasy spoon to a fancy oat-milk latte, coffee is big business. Yet its future is at risk.
A recent report by Christian Aid warned that climate change could reduce the land available for growing coffee by 54 per cent by 2100, even if global temperatures are kept to internationally agreed targets. On May 17, the World Meteorological Organisation said that temperatures could breach the 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2027. It’s not good news for coffee growers and lovers.
According to Dr Aaron Davis, a global expert in coffee and climate change, and head of coffee research at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, coffee is one of the most researched plants when it comes to climate change, with almost 150 studies published, and the outlook seems dire. Even if commitments to reduce carbon emissions are met, a 2022 study in Nature suggests coffee production will still see a rapid decline in countries accounting for 75 per cent of the world’s arabica coffee supply.
“It’s not something that’s going to happen in the future, it’s already happening,” says Dr Davis. “It’s very real.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/food-and-drink/drinks/why-your-morning-coffee-is-facing-extinction/
Notice the comment, it’s already happening. So this is not just the usual scare about something happening in the distant future; it’s a very specific claim that climate change is already affecting coffee production.
And is it?
Plainly not. The UN figures go up to 2021, and although there was sharp decline that year, such drops frequently occur. Even then 2021 coffee output was the 4th highest on record.
https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare
The Telegraph goes on to specifically mention three countries:
The world’s largest producer, Brazil, and Vietnam, the second, have both experienced concerning weather patterns just this year: extreme heat and drought in Vietnam, heavy rains in Brazil. “Last year, coffee harvests were influenced by drought in many countries, and long-term climate change may cause those drought periods to become longer, more severe and more regular,” Dr Davis explains. In Uganda, exports fell by about 20 per cent in 2022.
But the UN data shows nothing of concern in the long term trends in any of these. Note also the weasel words, climate change may cause those drought periods to become longer, more severe and more regular. On the other hand, maybe it won’t!
Interestingly the drop in Brazilian coffee output in 2021 was due to severe frosts, the opposite of what global warming is supposed to bring:
The journalist who wrote this piffle is the Telegraph’s Assistant Food Editor. I suggest that in future he sticks to restaurants and recipes, and leaves serious stuff like this to economic experts.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
The swiftest killer of coffee is a frost.
Global warming will reduce the number of frost events at the locations where coffee is grown.
“A frost has far reaching effects since it can reduce or completely annihilate much of the world supply in a matter of one day.”
http://www.coffeeresearch.org/market/frost.htm
Interestingly in Australia the number of frost days and the length of the frost period has been steadily increasing. No, this is not headline news at the ABC as like our Biased Broadcasting Corporation, anything that goes against their world fascism agenda is hidden away or not reported. I did smile at the review of the new gameshow fronted by the talentless St Gary of Crisps and Illegal Immigrants by the Mail TV critic. Coming on top of the joy at seeing Leicester relegated he must be choking on his crisps.
Whats coffee got to do with Christian Aid? They would do better by getting rid of Archbishop of Canterbury, sanctimonious twat.
Christian Aid is simply Socialist. For decades they pushed Socialist policies on African nations and blamed their utter failure on everything and everybody but those policies. They are frankly, evil, determined to keep people in dire poverty unless they follow left-wing notions.
I wonder what happened to “Investigative Journalism”. They now source their information from governmental body handouts and use the internet without any critical sense. The sermon dominates the science or even common-sense it appears.
What an excellent comment, beat me to the punch. Didn’t realise that Christian Aid consisted of climate scientists.
The Geography Manager (I’m not sure what that is) at my local primary school proudly boasted that the school has signed up to the climate education system from Christian Aid. Christian Aid sends the school teaching material and lesson plans to be followed to teach the children and their parents all about the climate crisis. If the school does a good job it is awarded a bronze certificate by Christian Aid. Of course it is hoped the school goes on to gain a silver and a gold certificate. I wonder how much that costs the school.
It’s such junk it’s embarrassing. Using last year’s weather as some sort of predictor is so absurd it hurts. Are we supposed to believe that prior to 2022 Brazil and Vietnam had utterly perfect weather, year after year?
The telegraph is rapidly beating the Grauniad at the scare tactic game.
“severe frosts, the opposite of what global warming is supposed to bring”
That’s why it was renamed Climate Weirding.
Great comment from GeoffB, a comment I wholeheartedly support!
The standard of journalism at the Telegraph is dropping markedly.
Drink tea, much better for you.
and you don’t have to get all poncy about it to enjoy it ! No lardy dah lattes or mochas !
” Drink tea, much better for you. ”
What’s wrong with beer?
Yet not so long ago we were told Fairtrade was what we had to do because there was such a glut of coffee, coffee producers weren’t getting a fair price. Do people still fall for this obvious nonsense? The “expert” is a climate change activist.
‘In Britain, we drink about 98 million cups per day, with an estimated two billion consumed worldwide.’
What is that in “billion elephants?”
I only accept data expressed in Hiroshima bombs !!
My favorite!
or compared to the size of Wales
According to my thumb, an elephant is about 8cuM, and according to my other thumb, each cup is about 250ml, so running the data across my fag packet, your 2 billion cups will fill up 500,000 US elephants or 50,000 Imperial elephants, but I prefer to drink mine out of a cup because it tastes better.
So between 40m adults, that’s an average of 2.5 cups/day. I call BS.
Well …. I average 9 cups a day (mainly Colombian).
When quoting the many experts who are producing this drivel it would be useful to know how much funding they are receiving and from what source. We keep hearing that the BBC, various newspapers and universities and, no doubt, the Met Office are receiving shed loads of money to promote climate change alarmism- has anyone got any facts and figures?
MJJ Exeter
This type of story is always irritatingly wrong. No matter what the climate does the ONLY thing that is likely to change is where the coffee is grown.
My current coffee is from Guatemala and the next pack is from Costa Rica. There are a lot of countries that produce coffee in addition to Brasil. Honduras, Indonesia, Ethiopia, India, Colombia, Peru and we can see it is growing fast in Vietnam.
Coffee production will only decline if the climate changes to a colder climate. Is that what the author is saying?
However if the climate changes naturally to a warmer climate then I forecast a 54% increase in coffee production as places like the sahara get warm and wet – perfect for coffee.
As Frank once sang…
“Way down among Brazilians
Coffee beans grow by the billions
So they’ve got to find those extra cups to fill
They’ve got an awful lot of coffee in Brazil
You can’t get cherry soda
‘Cause they’ve got to fill that quota
And the way things are I’ll bet they never will
They’ve got a zillion tons of coffee in Brazil
No tea or tomato juice
You’ll see no potato juice
The planters down in Santos all say no no no
The politician’s daughter
Was accused of drinking water
And was fined a great big fifty dollar bill
They’ve got an awful lot of coffee in Brazil
You date a girl and find out later
She smells just like a percolator
Her perfume was made right on the grill
Why they could percolate the ocean in Brazil
And when their ham and eggs need savor
Coffee ketchup gives ’em flavor
Coffee pickles way outsell the dill
Why they put coffee in the coffee in Brazil
So your lead to the local color
Serving coffee with a cruller
Dunking doesn’t take a lot of skill
They’ve got an awful lot of coffee in Brazil”
Notice the contradiction first they let the cat out of the bag that this is all based on moggles and is about what MAY happen, as Paul points out…that weasel word is everywhere…then our intrepid Dr Davis goes from moggled future tense to say “it is very real”!
Does this man not know that empirical data and the product of models are not the same thing? FFS!
For someone who supposedly has learned how to research and write a PhD as well as several articles and papers he seems to have forgotten much. Also the classic ecoevangelist hyperbole is in there which always makes me suspicious. Real scientists are reserved and cautious. Chancers and rent seekers say the sky is falling. He clearly has an agenda and wilfully ignores the difference between moggles and empirical data.
I am also very confused by his desire for only bad things to happen with klymutt sheyngsh. This is logically and factually incorrect. He is just one more evangelical doomsayer….. lost in the tens of thousands of other doomsayers….for money.
I looked him up on Linkedin but strangely there is no entry for his education. I see he has a BSc and a PhD mentioned on the Kew site but no mention of titles.
From his bio:
“My research background is in taxonomy and systematics.”
Yet now he’s a climate change expert.
Never heard of “systematics.” Looked it up. It means . . . taxonomy.
So he names stuff twice !!!
Maybe he named bison and anhinga.
Bsc and PhD from Uni of little Piddle. Founded 2023 in his bedroom.
Whatever happened to that “bold” idea that we plant a billion new trees? Capture CO2 in more coffee trees…and beans? Brew more and recycle CO2 and water back into the atmosphere? Brilliant plan.
I would like to get into the tree planting farrago some time. Has anyone seen any actual quantitative work? The obsession with this is in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular temperate northern lands where deciduous trees have no leaves for a good 6 months of the year. Now! I assume we are talking about deciduous trees and not evergreens that the celebrities invest in as tax dodges, which turn the ground they are planted on into an acidic desert? If a tree is planted where grass currently grows and as the tree grows the grass stops growing. 1. What what would be the CO2 absorption of the grass if it were left alone? That is an important number as that grass will die back as the tree grows and starves it of light and water. 2. What is the annual CO2 absorption by a generic deciduous tree? Remember it only has leaves for 6 months of the year therefore for 6 months it does nothing to thave the pwanet. Remember the grass is there all year round. Granted it is not photosynthesising much during the Autumn/Winter. If anyone has some numbers I would be interested to see them.
This all being said, of course sane human beings would only use time on this if there is a real problem and a cause of said problem identified. The greatest scientists of our time…. Greta Thunberg, Al Gore, Jane Fonda and the whole cast of the IPCC and their propagandists have STILL NOT produced the statistically significant empirical dataset(s) which support the claim that CO2 returned to the Carbon Cycle by the actions of man during the last 150 years can be shown in any measurable to be responsible for all or part of the current warming, the fourth such warming in recent human history. Science exists only where there is data. That data does not exist so there is no science to support the global asininity pushed by the marxist left and their willing useful idiots.
If as I suggest that data does not exist, what the hell is going on?
The planting of trees or grass, or even algae, will have no long term effect on the climate simply because eventually the oxygen they helped create will recycle their biomass back to CO2 and water…aerobic respiration. It is a temporary storage when permanent storage (geological burial) is needed…assuming you believe that CO2 is a problem worthy of that kind of energy-intensive investment.
I did vent my spleen somewhat extensively in the terminal portion or my rant on that very issue. My industry in it’s European death throws is diving head first into the CCS asininity. CO2 should stop providing oxygen molecules the the climatistas as they clearly do not appreciate it!
Whatever happened to literacy and numeracy in journalism?
Not to mention accuracy…
My regular supplier sold out of the Colombian beans I buy. But they will be back in stock 1st June. Despite higher roasting costs the price has softened a little since I last bought too.
A long way from alarm in the markets.
The alarm is that we will run out of Gas and Oil as our drillers all emigrate and Russia and friends sanction us and refuse to sell to us. I guess Parliament will keep us warm for a day if we set fire to it. Dont see it useful for anything else.
Hi I wonder if you would be kind enough to tell me how I can place an image into the text box as you have done in the above message. Thanks
For an image to appear directly it need to be hosted on the internet somewhere. It also needs to be a .png or .jpg image type. Then you just paste in the link to the image. For example if you go here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_coffee_production
you will find this map
Click on the map in the page and open it in a new window and you should find a linkable .png
If you make your own images, or have downloaded to your own device you need to find a way to get them hosted on the internet. There are sites that specialise in that, but they probably demand a subscription. Some comment systems allow images to be uploaded – but unfortunately not this one. But if you use e.g. a site with Disqus and image uploading allowed, you can click on the image after it is uploaded into your comment and open it in a fresh tab, which will have the internet link to the image in the address bar.
If you use other people’s images you should take care that linking to them doesn’t infringe copyright.
I usually just insert the link, that usually does it.
‘A horse? A horse? My kingdom for a horse.’
How yesterday. My media for a good scare.
The Telegraph should decaffeinate him.The Telegraph is not interested in the science.
Gamecock loves Colombia Supremo. But he’s not worried – it comes from Sam’s Club.
Paul,
This is a regular climate scare story with absolutely nothing in it. If I may:
Just a quick glance at a chart of US Coffee futures prices shows that there is no shortage, no evidence of any long term uptrend-just an occasional tendency towards price spikes.
In fact today’s price @ $1.77 per lb is not markedly different from that 40 years ago.