Hot June? Blame It On The NAO, Not Global Warming
July 3, 2023
By Paul Homewood
While the Met Office is busy cooking some way to connect a hot June to global warming, the real culprit is the NAO, (North Atlantic Oscillation).
This is how Judith Curry described what has been happening:
Stagnant surface winds and weak westerly flows. This translates to atmospheric blocking, giving the UK predominantly anticyclonic weather for virtually the whole month; and consequently plenty of sunshine and hot weather.
Will the Met Office acknowledge this fact? I would not hold your breath!
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Yes, but the NAO is perturbed by the difference in CO2 from last year.
I couldn’t help smiling at the teatime ITV News weather forecast was done by Alex whatsaname talking about climate change and how how hot June had been whilst wearing a camouflage jacket to keep warm.
Lots of talk about high sunshine low rain. Who’d have thought lots of sunshine means not much rain
The MO judgement:-
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/fingerprints-of-climate-change-on-june-temperature-records
God, I love well-crafted propaganda produced by conscientious government servants to support the narrative of their political masters! The only drawback is their use of a CliSciFi climate model that doesn’t even represent the real climate to calculate imaginary chances of different temperature occurrences. And that’s what they are passing off as science these days at the Met Office; Diogenes wouldn’t bother taking his lamp to visit.
Fully agree, but for one fact. It is not our elected politicians who are driving this propaganda for the most part, but the Civil Service who have the power, and their long term goals that relate to their ambitions in the unelected international institutions such as the UN and all the subordinate entities.
Much lawmaking and regulation is of their purview; the politicians are mere pawns of self-aggrandisement (bar a few who have the ability to dispense and question, usually without being able to influence the ordained direction of travel for the peasantry).
Don’t forget the World Empire of Fascism playing their part in this as global warming is a perfect invention for their plans to control us all. They run a Hitler Youth training scheme to programme politicians which includes the PM Sushi, Horseface Arden and Adolf Trudeau.
I’ve complained to both the BBC and Met Office regarding their misleading headlines today, as your blog about the CET clearly pointed out the other hotter Junes in 1676, 1822, 1826 and 1846 – https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt
Wasting your time on those grounds, they’re talking about the UK, you’re talking about the CET, not the same thing.
Ah I see, interesting how they choose to ignore this long-term English record but I suppose that doesn’t make as good a headline?!
June 2023 was actually warmest in the CET if you look at the average max temperature per day, although they only do daily data for the past ~140 years.
The mean temperature ranked 5th warmest (full series). Average minimum 4th warmest (~140 years).
Heathrow was clearly warmer in 1976.
Apples and oranges.
BBC/MO have not lied and June 2023 is remarkably warm whichever way you slice it.
Don’t know about that MrGrim. One broadcast I heard not sure whether ITV or BBC said all four nations had records so CET would be relevant for one of the four.
The Met Office is a global warming activist organisation pretending to be a reputable scientific institution.
It’s all very well confronting the propagandistic way that the MO/BBC cover the story, but some people are in danger of just not accepting that June 2023 was extraordinary statistically in the last 140 years or so at least.
You can argue about the reasons for it, and random chance of various factors combining would be top of my list.
Fair point Mr GN but as we have seen here, many of their weatherstations are of poor quality and produce dubious results so that applying a reasonable tolerance to the figure would put it in context.
Can you prove that? Jot down the relevant equations. I ‘d like a look. They’ll be on the Met office website.
The thing that gets me is, if June 2023 is recorded as hotter than June 1940, were the temperature measurements made in both years made in exactly the same way – process and method? So, were the 1940 measurements as accurate as 2023’s? Otherwise, the MO is comparing the performancs of Hurricanes to Typhoons – if you get my drift.
Harry the answer to your question is no. To take 1976 as an example, the heatwave started on my 20th birthday (23rd June) so I remember it well. In 2003 the Brogdale Faversham weather station recorded the then record. How did it compare with 1976? Well as it was only installed in 1999 there is no way of knowing. So the MO can use the Brogdale figure to prove it’s getting hotter even though they have no apples with apples comparison. The Brogdale figure was marginally higher than Gravesend recorded that day in 2003 but that site was only installed in 1997 and removed in 2018.
The MO are just playing smoke and mirrors.
You could ask if the 2023 data is as accurate as the 1940 measurements given that electronic recorders have some problems with RF interference before we even mention the dubious environment of some of the stations and UHI.
Does anyone know what impact the hot spell in Scotland had on the overall result?
Looking at the Met Office anomaly map it would appear that the area around Kyle of Lochalsh had the largest anomaly, 3.5’C if they are to be believed.
I know from talking to my brother that the warm dry spell started in Dundee getting on for a fortnight before we got any decent weather in Derby.
I do wonder whether the wrong metric is being used.
I recall well the 1976 heatwave whilst on a major exercise on Salisbury Plain. The most notable impact during that was the many fires that started resulting from the pyrotechnics and explosive we used to simulate warfare, requiring many of the troops involved to man fire-beaters to control the various conflagrations.
To my mind the more apt metric would be the summation of daily temperature- time graphs over a defined heatwave that will give the degree of heat achieved by that, regardless of just the maximum and minimum temperatures. That way a more useful comparison between differing heatwaves would be achieved.
But I suppose another would be an aerial measure of ground aridity, noting in 1976 England was not the green and pleasant land – more a desert colour – than this years!
We had a similar thing only much more prolonged in 2019 I think it was. Golf courses got scorched and took two years to recover. Paradoxically the UK heatwave was caused by unusually cold conditions in the west Atlantic (see Curry’s charts) which caused our blocking high. Nothing to do with man-made CO2.
Most of June was dry and not very warm due to continual northerly and easterly cold air blowing in with high pressure over Greenland and Iceland. A few hot days do not make it the “hottest June since 1940”. Average June temperatures cannot have been record breaking.
I was in North Wales for almost 3 weeks in June and it was hot, no doubting that. We were experiencing 23C-30C temperatures, according to my car, and I didn’t see a cloud on Snowdon in all the time I was there and that is very unusual. In contrast around Canterbury, where I live, was recording much lower temperatures for that period. The Eastern side of England was stuck in fairly chilly Northerly air currents which I was glad to get away from. It was an unusual combination but not unheard of. Was it evidence of climate change? I doubt it.
Since we got back the temperature differential, and weather generally, has reversed with Snowdonia a good deal cooler and wetter than Canterbury. So what?
All the recent temperatures are irrelevant, due to urban heat effect. But checking 1976, which I remember well. The UK had 19 days with temp over 25C. 10 of which were over 30 C. My local weather station reported just 11 days over 25C and none over 30C. So no comparison to this year.