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Lancet’s Misleading Excess Mortality Chart

August 6, 2023

By Paul Homewood

 

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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(23)00023-2/fulltext

I think I covered this report when it was published. It found that excess deaths from cold were about ten times those from heat across Europe:

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Bjorn Lomborg has pointed out however that the table included in the paper was misleading:

 

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https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1680966007148498945?s=20&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Whether this was deliberately dishonest or not, I do not know. But you can well imagine the misleading version being promulgated by the media.

Lomborg goes on to show how rising temperatures have been saving lives:

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And he explains why cold weather is so much more deadly:

 

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19 Comments
  1. Joe Public permalink
    August 6, 2023 11:47 am

    AFAIK, not even Darrell Huff thought of that one.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics

  2. CheshireRed permalink
    August 6, 2023 1:35 pm

    Nothing is coincidental in the warped world of ‘climate change’. Everything is by design.

    The Lancet is probably THE medical journal of record so they can’t readily be excused when they use such blatant statistical tricks. Honestly, what were they thinking?

  3. Mike Jackson permalink
    August 6, 2023 1:46 pm

    That’s not ‘misleading’; it’s fundamentally and almost certainly deliberately dishonest.
    “But we did say …..” And who was it said “a picture is worth a thousand words ….”

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      August 6, 2023 3:15 pm

      ‘…dishonest’: an alternative spelling for fraud. Works for me.

  4. Stonyground permalink
    August 6, 2023 3:21 pm

    The lying is blatant and wall to wall from just about all media outlets now. I don’t know how long they can keep it up now before the majority of people catch on. I’ve been expecting the climate change bubble to burst for several decades now and I’m amazed at how long it has been maintained. I’m 65, will I live long enough to see it die? Only time will tell.

  5. 2hmp permalink
    August 6, 2023 4:33 pm

    Woke Lancet ? Of course.

  6. August 6, 2023 5:13 pm

    LAT’s lead editorial a few days back, in their continued effort to portray heat as the leading cause of death from weather – wanting heat waves to be named:

    “But no U.S. president has ever issued an emergency or major disaster declaration for extreme heat, even though it’s the deadliest weather-related hazard.”

    It’s a mental sickness.

    • gezza1298 permalink
      August 6, 2023 9:47 pm

      Perhaps they have been out in the sun too long. Although in our summer they might be suffering from exposure.

  7. August 6, 2023 6:39 pm

    I think the idea was to compare the breakdown by age, which you can’t do if the whole bar is 1mm long.

    • Dave Fair permalink
      August 6, 2023 7:20 pm

      Two different graphs is the normal researcher’s method for conveying that information. I’m unaware of any honest researcher that changes the X-axis to present the same data.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      August 7, 2023 7:25 am

      So what was the point of the paper? That far more people die in winter than summer? A fact known for decades. The entire thing is a waste of time, but they made hot deaths look similar for some reason.

  8. cookers52 permalink
    August 6, 2023 9:42 pm

    It probably helped the study pass through peer review as all heat deaths are caused by AGW CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. Whereas all cold deaths are caused by deniers not taking action to reduce our emissions to net zero.

  9. gezza1298 permalink
    August 6, 2023 9:58 pm

    Some cheery news – 2 battery bikes makers Gleam and Van Moof have gone bankrupt. Gleam make cargo bikes that are supposed to replace trucks and vans according to the moron that was my section leader at the City of London.

  10. pardonmeforbreathing permalink
    August 6, 2023 10:54 pm

    Papers are sent out to be reviewed by a number of reviewers. It is for those who review papers to assess the quality of a paper and catch errors. This is sleight of hand by the paper writers but what to think about the reviewers? I have no idea how many reviewed the paper.
    There are only two possible conclusions. Either the current editorial board are not fit to do the job and need to be fired en mass OR they have been contaminated with climate virus and “looked the other way” letting the paper through. However, few people behave altruistically, one favour given deserves another bigger favour in return…

  11. August 7, 2023 12:23 am

    Notable Twitter things on Sunday
    People tweeted a Tele
    Massive thread of people calling out nudgeUnit stuff in Gardener’s World… quotes a letter to the Telegraph
    see the QuoteTweets too
    there people often cited Countryfile too
    .. https://www.twitter.com/cultfree54/status/1687830886438350849

    Also @AlineDobbie tweeted
    Unintended humour was provided last night when Monty Don portentously revealed: ‘We are told not to refer to global warming anymore but to climate change instead

    • August 7, 2023 12:26 am

      Also Countryfile had big PRasNews for the Scottish windfarm industry
      “oh aren’t they cool they are trying to throw away less components”
      Things prog failed to mention is a long list

      It was PRasNews for Argyll’s Renewable Parts Ltd
      https://ashden.org/awards/winners/renewable-parts

      On Twitter 97% mocked it

  12. Phoenix44 permalink
    August 7, 2023 7:22 am

    Lomborg is wrong g though. Nobody knows why more people die in winterthur in summer. Our bodies are easily capable of coping with small changes caused by vasoconstriction and anyway people having heart attacks aren’t going out in the cold. And relative cold doesn’t cause vasoconstriction anyway. Only actual cold does. There are lots of other hypotheses such as lower Vitamin D but there’s no actual accepted, proven theory.

  13. Iain Reid, permalink
    August 7, 2023 8:04 am

    Phoenix,

    whatever the cause the statistics are there, a lot more deaths in winter than summer. Are there more deaths from heart attacks in winter? Another point some people cannot afford to heat their homes properly so staying in does not realy help that much?

  14. Ray Sanders permalink
    August 7, 2023 10:26 pm

    ‘peer review to the public is portrayed as a quasisacred process that helps to make science our most objective truth teller, but we know that the system of peer review is biased, unjust, unaccountable, incomplete, easily fixed, often insulting, usually ignorant, occasionally foolish, and frequently wrong’.
    Richard Horton Editor in Chief…….the Lancet.

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