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Storm Agnes

September 28, 2023

By Paul Homewood

 

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Storm Agnes is yet another one that failed to live up to the hyperbole beforehand, with the media publishing all sorts of bloodcurdling nonsense, fanned by the Met Office warnings. The Express, for instance:

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https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1816375/storm-agnes-live-warning-met-office-forecast

The media, of course, loves all of this, because it attracts readers’ attention, but you cannot blame them when the Met Office has been equally guilty of fanning the flames:

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/autumnal-weather

As usual, the Met Office found its 80 mph gust, this time at Capel Curig, half way up a mountain in Snowdonia:

 

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 https://earth.google.com/web/search/53.094+-3.94/@53.09566603,-3.94197926,200.60420227a,0d,80.54690393y,199.82224702h,83.3622888t,0r/data=CigiJgokCfFEnBF95UNAEYOwrj0o5UNAGU4Hsp6lNyNAIfbMI1r5NSNAIhoKFjY1NXVIMWRkQjFYaGF0dnVRUk5URUEQAg

Capel Curig is only a few miles from Conwy on the coast. There sustained winds were only a breezy 14 mph:

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https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/@2652426/historic

At nearby Rhyl, the Met Office could only find maximum gusts of 34 kts, (39 mph):

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/gcmr0gu3s

Once again, the Met Office prefers spin to responsible weather forecasting.

38 Comments
  1. Gamecock permalink
    September 28, 2023 10:37 am

    Congratulations on making it to September before having a named storm.

    Here in America, they give zephyrs names. We have had a very quiet hurricane season*, yet they are already up to Philippe.

    *Early season predictions of catastrophic season because of “hottest ocean evah” came to nothing, as Gamecock predicted (tropical North Atlantic is hot enough to support hurricanes every year; ocean temp is not a limiting factor on hurricanes)

    • catweazle666 permalink
      September 28, 2023 5:24 pm

      There’s a reason for storm naming, you might find this interesting:
      “When a Storm Gets Its Name, Your Insurance Takes a Hit”
      https://www.risk-strategies.com/blog/when-a-storm-gets-its-name-your-insurance-takes-a-hit

      • 186no permalink
        September 28, 2023 5:41 pm

        The corollary to that is if you experience severe weather and it causes damage to your property, in whatever form, one tried and tested claims management strategy of insurance companies is to confirm with the “weather authorities” that a storm occurred in your area “officially”; if it was you may be insured…if it was not you may have a monumental fight on your hands.

        The devil, as ever, is not only in the “small print”, but 100% subject to how the Insurance company interpret that small print …….don’t get me started…

      • devonblueboy permalink
        September 28, 2023 6:06 pm

        As always, the insurers look after themselves and their shareholders first and their policy holders (aka customers) last.

    • Matt Dalby permalink
      September 30, 2023 11:09 pm

      In the UK most storms occur in winter so they start on a new list of names on 1st September each year. Last ‘year’, Sept 2022-Aug 2023, we had 2 named storms, both in August this year meaning it was very unusual to have no named storms over winter.
      The headlines should of been:-
      WARNING!! Storm Agnes upgraded to typical autumn/winter conditions in the Welsh mountains.

      • Gamecock permalink
        October 1, 2023 2:30 am

        Thx for clarification.

  2. In The Real World permalink
    September 28, 2023 10:37 am

    Sorry about this being off topic , but news just out showing cost of NET ZERO .They are finally admitting that it will cost every family an extra £6000 plus per year , or over £150,000 up to 2050 .
    And if they admit that , you can be sure it will be a lot more .

    • gezza1298 permalink
      September 28, 2023 10:55 am

      A report from Civitas which says if it was all scrapped all families could have free food and £2800 a year to spend until 2050. Worthy of a full post.

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      September 28, 2023 12:03 pm

      Are those costs in GBP or HS2P?

  3. Nordisch geo-climber permalink
    September 28, 2023 10:38 am

    So-called “Storm Agnes” – a perfectly normal spell of autumnal weather here high up in the Northern English Lake District. Hardly noticed. In fact the only small tree that came down recently was a few days ago before this depression.

    • September 28, 2023 5:35 pm

      We have had mounting hysteria here in the South West for the last 5 days. Complete non event where I live in Devon. The local news showed its reporters trying to talk up the very moderate waves that could be seen in the background shots. One reporters hair barely moved in the gentle breeze

      • devonblueboy permalink
        September 28, 2023 6:08 pm

        Same in East Devon

  4. saighdear permalink
    September 28, 2023 10:43 am

    Aye, indeed: Great thing this digital TV lark: can see weather reports in other parts of the country. Scotland ( up here) was consistently INCONSISTENT and at odds with the National forecasts – Howzat? Am I living in a time warp? So we took precautions and cancelled jobs that were to be done in areas of high risk of flooding and battened down the hatches ( shed doors) ,,,,, ….. but nothing happened. Warmer night than the day but with windchill, Some Rain BIG drops from high loud. Mammus cloud for a while then clear spells .Black skies with a Sun peeping through. Great for photography – that’s about all.
    Coffee-break viewing of various UK / Welsh & Scot’s webcams like watching paint dry. https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/wales.html

  5. gezza1298 permalink
    September 28, 2023 10:57 am

    Even the illegal migrant delivery service – some know them as the RNLI – got in on the nannying by warning people not to go near the sea.

  6. glen cullen permalink
    September 28, 2023 11:16 am

    These exaggerated BBC storm claims are no laughing matter, we rescheduled a planned outdoor event in Colwyn Bay due to their forecast ….and nothing happened, it was just like any other end of September day

    • Mike Jackson permalink
      September 28, 2023 11:31 am

      You could try suing them for the costs incurred. You probably won’t win but the publicity might be worthwhile.
      Forcing them to defend their ongoing scaremongering forecasts might at least be good for a giggle!

    • Philip Mulholland permalink
      September 28, 2023 12:07 pm

      @glen cullen
      Ditch the BBC, use Ventusky instead.

  7. madmike33 permalink
    September 28, 2023 11:26 am

    Capel Curig is at T junction of 2 wide valleys. Naturally this is going to affect the wind currents. It is also at 653 ft above sea level so is well in to the mountains. I would suggest that an 80mph gust is no big deal there. That gust could have lasted a couple of seconds only.

    • Mike Jackson permalink
      September 28, 2023 11:35 am

      It’s a bit like saying the wettest place in England is the middle of Lake Wimdermere. ‘Mountain tops windier than valleys’ shock!!

    • glen cullen permalink
      September 28, 2023 1:02 pm

      Capel Curig gets gusts of 40mph on a mild summer’s day ….Its just geography,
      a bit like putting a thermostat next to a 747 aeroplane engine on a hot runway made of concrete

  8. edwardrodolph1891 permalink
    September 28, 2023 11:37 am

    ‘Danger to life’, eh? Here in central Wales it was just another benign, dreary, VERY slow day! In the new drakeford inspired slow-down, drivers caught snoozing at the wheel. The left-wing national ‘utopia’ was boring beyond words.

  9. madmike33 permalink
    September 28, 2023 11:37 am

    Looks like Wednesday night was the peak at Capel Curig. Around 50mph tops. Not unusual at all but windy all the same.

    https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/@7299983/historic

  10. September 28, 2023 11:40 am

    You’re maybe a bit harsh on the MO. They’ve always erred on the disastrous side ever since Michael Fish and the 1987 Hurricane. He was right and it wasn’t a hurricane of course, it was just a bit worse than he thought. It’s a fact that if you forecast a bad storm and it’s only a storm the public and press don’t mind. But you forecast a bit of wind and it turns out to be a storm, you get pilloried. It’s more about civil servants covering their backs in cases like these. Of course in other areas the Met Office is fully signed up to climate hysteria.

  11. jeremy23846 permalink
    September 28, 2023 11:42 am

    I’m surprised I wasn’t inundated with messages from Northern Powergrid, who haven’t recovered from the slating they got for the 5 day power outage in November 2021. If we’d have been on heat pumps it would not have been good. My lithium battery via an inverter will run the oil boiler pump and control unit.

    National Grid estimated the cost of net zero at £3 trillion in 2020, £110,000 a family. I’m not surprised it’s gone up to £150,000. What they don’t mention is that the storage we will need for at least 19,000 gigawatt hours to cover a dunkelflaute will cost at least as much again.

  12. Devoncamel permalink
    September 28, 2023 11:55 am

    It got a bit breezy in Devon. Despite all the alarmist language ( weather bombs anyone?) nothing alarming happened. Unlike the recent localised flooding that hit Devon and Somerset which wasn’t predicted.

    • September 28, 2023 12:16 pm

      Same in my part of Devon. Breezy and no rain, just a pleasant autumn day.

  13. Thomas Carr permalink
    September 28, 2023 12:18 pm

    At least they got it right for Tramore and Youghal in Co. Cork

  14. Ray Sanders permalink
    September 28, 2023 1:13 pm

    Only slightly O/T but from that first image above “Charlwood” is showing 23.1°C
    “Charlwood” would be better described as “just off the end of the Gatwick runway”. It ranks as garbage standard WMO Class 5 (in)accurate to more than 2°C. even without the aircraft exhausts, and the buildings, and the car parks, and the air con exhausts etc, etc,
    Here it is on google maps – zoom out for a more interesting view of the “small”
    landing strip.
    https://www.google.com/maps/place/51°08'38.0“N+0°13’46.0″W/@51.1441724,-0.2297944,104m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d51.1438889!4d-0.2294444?entry=ttu
    Here is how Tim Channon described it

    WMO03769, Charlwood


    There are some illuminating extra photos in the comments.
    Yet more high quality from the Met Office.

  15. Barry Paterson permalink
    September 28, 2023 1:31 pm

    In the U.K. we now have a “ Storm Season” according to ITV weather. Most people still talk in quaint terms, such as, autumn, winter etc.

  16. Andrew Harding permalink
    September 28, 2023 2:02 pm

    I see that the Moronic Office are using even more bold colours to emphasise their exaggerated lies!

    • September 28, 2023 5:42 pm

      its about time they put EVERYTHING in red and splashed exclamation marks across the maps. We could then have Corporal Jones shouting over the top of the Forecast “Don’t panic! Don’t Panic!”

  17. September 28, 2023 3:04 pm

    It was bad. My dog was very scared by the noise of acorns falling on top of the van. We had to move from under the tree just after midnight.

    • Philip Mulholland permalink
      October 1, 2023 2:38 am

      @Jaime Jessop
      Maybe it was just the squirrels having a midnight feast?

      • edwardrodolph1891 permalink
        October 1, 2023 1:43 pm

        Falling acorns were, of course, the met orifice’s ‘danger to life’ big worry’. How many excess deaths were there? Khant, for example, would use any number, say 40,000, snatched from a passing moonbat cloud, to terrrify the population and impose some new multi £million’ fund raising scam. It’s an ‘ill-wind’ eh?

  18. catweazle666 permalink
    September 28, 2023 5:27 pm

    So the Met Orifice thinks equinoctial gales are caused by AGW now, does it?

    • Philip Mulholland permalink
      October 1, 2023 2:47 am

      @catweazle666
      Equinoxes?
      You will probably like this:

      Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability is ubiquitous at Earth’s magnetopause and plays an important role in plasma entry into the magnetosphere during northward interplanetary magnetic fields. Here, using one solar cycle of data from NASA THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macro scale Interactions during Substorms) and MMS (Magnetospheric Multiscale) missions, we found that KHI occurrence rates show seasonal and diurnal variations with the rate being high near the equinoxes and low near the solstices. The instability depends directly on the Earth’s dipole tilt angle. The tilt toward or away from the Sun explains most of the seasonal and diurnal variations, while the tilt in the plane perpendicular to the Earth‐Sun line explains the difference between the equinoxes. The results reveal the critical role of dipole tilt in modulating KHI across the magnetopause as a function of time, highlighting the importance of Sun-Earth geometry for solar wind-magnetosphere interaction and for space weather.

      Seasonal and diurnal variations of Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability at terrestrial magnetopause

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