New ONS Heat Deaths Claims Don’t Stack Up
By Paul Homewood
The BBC continue to print this lie:
There have been more than 50,000 heat-related deaths and more than 200,000 related to cold in England and Wales since 1988, new official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics said very low and very high temperatures both increased the risk of death.
And although cold is the bigger killer, the ONS said heat-related deaths appeared to have risen in recent years.
Some 4,507 deaths were estimated to be linked to heat in England last year – when temperatures topped 40C.
That was the highest number of estimated heat-related deaths over the last 35 years – but does not take into account population growth, and is a similar number to levels in the 1990s and early 2000s when the population was smaller.
Last year, the UK saw record-breaking heat – with climate change playing a key role in pushing temperatures so high.
The extreme heat caused disruption across the country, and data has already suggested about 3,000 more over-65s died than usual in England and Wales last summer.
According to the ONS, once temperatures hit 25C, the number of temperature-related deaths go up by about 50%, compared to the optimal temperature for people. Below -5C, the number of temperature-related deaths shoot up by about 75%.
However such temperatures above 25C or below -5C were only experienced on relatively few days over the study period, and therefore contributed relatively few deaths, the ONS points out.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66890135
There are a number of issues with this ONS report.
For a start, the claim of 50,000 heat deaths since 1988 works out at 1400 a year. Out of total annual deaths of around 600,000, this figure is laughingly small, and cannot be regarded as statistically meaningful.
There is also the fact that according to the ONS themselves, excess winter deaths have been running at around 30,000 a year since the 1980s. Plainly the new claim of a total of 200,000 cold related deaths since 1988 is a woeful underestimate, which raises the question of the legitimacy of this new study.
More fundamental is the fact that the number of deaths in summer is always by far the lowest of any season, this year being no exception:
This should set alarm bells ringing regarding claims of heat related deaths. After all, if cold is killing people in winter and heat in summer, what is killing them in autumn and spring?
So let’s take a close look at the new ONS study:
First of all, they stress caution when using the data. They are clearly concerned about the quality of their own report:
The previous analysis they mention says this:
We found relatively little increase in deaths caused by warmer weather and a reduction in deaths caused by cold winters, leading to a net decrease in deaths; in contrast, there was a net increase in hospital admissions linked to warmer weather, especially from injuries.
Previous research has linked warmer weather to injuries from outdoor activities, increased violence and mental health problems; direct harm from extreme heat is still less common but this is likely to change over time.
Our findings are consistent with previous research and confirm that the warming trajectory predicted by climate scientists is already affecting health in England and Wales; however, in the UK’s cool-to-temperate climate, the mortality impact is limited and appropriate policy and behaviour changes could mitigate much of the health risk from increasing temperatures.
That message could not have been clearly - a warmer climate has saved lives.
But that clearly was not the message the government wanted, so they told the ONS to go back and produce “the right result”
This is what they came up with:
So what is going on here? The Notes give us a clue:
What does this tell us? Quite simply that the observed mortality risk is based on people dying on that particular day or shortly after, not over the season as a whole, which is how the Winter Excess Deaths are calculated.
And here we can return to last year’s ONS study on Excess Mortality during heat waves, which quite astonishingly is not mentioned at all in this new report, other than as a related link at the bottom:
Last year’s report also find excess deaths on extremely hot days, but crucially made this qualification:
In short, people may have died a few days earlier than they would otherwise. But the heat did not kill them at all – they were dying anyway, and the heat was no more than a trigger, just as a bit of cold or wet weather could have been.
This of course explains why the overall mortality rates in summer as a whole remain lower than other seasons, as they are not affected at all by daily spikes. On the contrary, in winter the cold and damp weather kills relentlessly, throughout the season.
It seems clear to me that the ONS have been leaned on by the government to come up with some dodgy statistics to “prove” that hot weather kills. This seems pretty obvious from this paragraph in the ONS report:
For a start, why would a warmer climate lead to more extreme temperatures? Statistically the whole idea is absurd. And statistics is after all what the ONS is supposed to be about!
And they must know full well that a warmer climate will reduce winter excess deaths in the UK. So why are they lying about it?
And with the media giving full publicity to this fraudulent report, the government is no doubt very happy!
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
May I simply say that “They never did” . If people really did “care for the planet in so far as ‘overheating’ ” – then why do they go in their droves – FLY even, to Hotter parts of the world for their holidays, or to live in retirement or a new life in the sun. ….
Yes, very good point
My Dad left these cool climes to live in Brisbane for the good of his health – now 91yrs old in the pleasant 35c summers.
Australia has a higher life expectancy than the UK, Spain higher than Ireland.
Keep the people afraid and they’ll do as they are told. Its all smoke and mirrors because a warming climate has many benefits that the media never mention.
“Lies, damned lies, and the ONS”, duly reported by the MSM.
“Some 4,507 deaths were estimated to be linked to heat in England last year – when temperatures topped 40C.”
Not everywhere in the UK recorded temperatures of 40C last year,. In fact 40C was only recorded once, “For many this summer’s record-breaking heat in July – where temperatures reached 40.3°C at Coningsby in Lincolnshire”
(National Climate Information Centre).
So how many of the heat related excess deaths were in and around Coningsby?
In fact June, July and August 2022 combined only averaged 17.1C (Met Office)
Dunno where “you” ie THEY get these figures from. My neighbour was on permanent Nightshift and it was COOOOOLD at night, but reasonable warmth in his Cabin for daytime sleeping. Just saying. So it looks like that if you turn day into night, you would probably get the OPPOSITE understanding of it being a hot or not-o-hot summer. I know too that we have had Harvests with hot Septembers including Nights – mann – they were braw. short sleeves all the time. Now its fully clothed most of the summer. ( sunburn or just cool draughts)
The Exposure Fallacy. As I’ve commented below, let’s see the regional deaths correlated to regional temperatures. Shouldn’t be difficult. And let’s see the differences in deaths between say Newcastle and Seville in the summer.
The whole ONS report is rubbish. where did they get the daft idea that the ideal living temp range is 8 to 22 deg? Most people in most parts of the world would go for 18 to 32deg as a heathier temp range. Inventing these blatantly false parameters to then help make-up spurious ‘estimates’ just proves the ONS is no longer an honest or useful institution. Defund and scrap it.
Yes, when you work closely with the SOIL ( Mother Earth, – the PLANET, y’know! ) soil temp of 8C are COLD and you don’t want to be guddling around in that for too long. Really, though , I have always maintained that Air TEMPS are no indication of very much: Prefer to use SOIL and maybe more bias towards Night time temps. Shine a IR Lamp on anything on a cold day, stuck on ice and you can cook …. so what does that mean?
Humans evolved in Africa. Let’s start from temperatures in Olduvai as being optimum.
40 deg C?
Most of the population wasn’t camped out next to a runway where Typhoon jets were taking off on full afterburner.
Talking of runways and carparks.
A novel UK satellite has returned its first pictures of heat variations across the surface of the Earth.
HotSat-1 carries the highest resolution commercial thermal sensor in orbit, enabling it to trace hot and cold features as small as 3.5m across.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67010377
Informative satellite stuff there!
https://www.satellitevu.com/
Nowhere to hide from that.
Would access to this satellite show the ground temp around met office weather stations – esp. those dodgy ones on RAF bases and near greenhouses? Just a thought.
‘Some 4,507 deaths were estimated to be linked to heat in England last year – when temperatures topped 40C.
That was the highest number of estimated heat-related deaths over the last 35 years’
Are death certificates issued for ‘estimated deaths?’
Can we see some? Perhaps they can share some of the death certificates that state “Cause of Death: linked to heat.”
‘And although cold is the bigger killer, the ONS said heat-related deaths appeared to have risen in recent years.’
“We’re gonna talk about heat-related deaths, cos that’s our agenda.”
And if warmer winters means fewer deaths then, there will be more deaths in the summer no matter what.
They will be wanting to ignore the fact that people who die tend to be indoors to begin with, rather than dying of exposure to outside temperatures. Modern highly insulated houses with limited ventilation are much more likely to overheat inside. But inability to afford a heating bill is much more likely to be a problem. AFAICS, the data for this chart are no longer published: perhaps we should FOI DESNZ for an update:
This has not been updated since 2012:
Click to access 2_Mean_Household_Temperatures.pdf
Now surely overdue. Both were part of the analysis Roger Andrews did here that therefore cannot be updated:
https://euanmearns.com/the-influence-of-temperature-on-uk-death-rates/
The consequences of Net Zero policies and high energy prices need to be rammed down politicians’ throats.
ONS usually get the data from cause of death on death certificates.
This data source is not as robust as one might hope as the scrutiny of what gets written on death certificates has until now been non existent. Except for those few cases referred to the Coroner.
Independent medical examiners are only now being introduced.
What gets written on death certificates is subject to influences by the prevailing fashions and is not useful in determining anything more than what the prevailing fashion is.
” What gets written on death certificates is subject to influences by the prevailing fashions ”
Death certificates where Covid is mentioned being a prime example.
When someone can not adjust to temperatures above 25 C, he is indeed almost certainly very old; and it is evidence of what is called, by gerontologists, “a general loss of homeostatic capacity.” Difficulties in adjustment to heat and cold are only part of it.
Your kidneys do not balance your salts. The pH of your blood fluctuates. Your diabetes goes wild. Your heart and lungs do not take kindly to being stressed. In other words, you are knackered! And should be making your peace before death. When did we lose the wisdom exemplified in the old saying, “Pneumonia is the old man’s friend”?
“Experimental statistics.”
Never heard of that. I suppose it is an euphemism among data torturers for their despicable calling.
“..some 4,507 [sic] deaths were estimated…”
“It is true that it is extremely difficult to interpret figures when they relate to some concrete problem. It is also true that it is extremely easy to do arithmetic…When the job is done it looks very accurate…We suffer from ‘delusions of accuracy.’ Once an enthusiast gets this disease he and all who depend on his conclusions for their welfare are damned.”
M J Moroney, “Facts from Figures,” Third Edition, 1956.
Exactly. A number of research papers have shown death certificates to be full of errors and often no more than guesses. That we spend a great deal of money and base a great deal of policy on them is appalling. And it’s been shown that doctors follow fashion – through often put what is the default.
Quite so. The figures for covid deaths were inflated because they included those who died (say) in a car accident but who also had covid symptoms. So someone who died in a car accident on a very hot day gets counted as a climate casualty. Just as truth is – a casualty of political lies.
I have some sympathy for ONS who are tasked by Gov to provide some kind of analysis, even though the cause of death certificates are not reliable.
Probably of more concern is that death certificates have hidden nearly every NHS care scandal.
1000’s of deaths from contaminated blood.
Stafford Hospital care scandal.
Morecambe Bay and Shropshire County maternity scandals.
Dr Harold Shipman hid his murder of 250 patients with death certificates.
etc
At last this year following the recommendation of several public inquiries independent medical examiners are being rolled out to scrutinise death certificates.
With covid as a cause of death hospitals in both UK and US got extra payments – no surprise then that so many deaths were attributed to it.
Dave, it appears Covid cures flu.
‘As Scientific American reported in November 2020, the drop-off in flu numbers following COVID’s arrival was swift and global. Since then, cases have stayed remarkably low. “There’s just no flu circulating,” says Greg Poland, who has studied the disease at the Mayo Clinic for decades. The U.S. saw about 700 deaths from influenza during the 2020–2021 season. In comparison, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates there were approximately 22,000 U.S. deaths in the prior season and 34,000 deaths two seasons ago.’
Cynical Gamecock suspects that flu deaths were unchanged, they were just reported as ‘Covid.’ Flu deaths didn’t pay anything. Government got the result they paid for.
Policy based evidence making
We could start with indisputable facts:
1. Longevity has increased as temperatures have increased.
2. Total deaths have decreased as temperatures have increased.
3. Countries with warmer summer temperatures do not have higher rates of deaths and have similar longevity.
4. There is no evidence of exposure to higher temperatures amongst those who die – they show no regional correlations for example.
5. It is unclear if deaths brought forward are caused by heat as such rather than change in temperature.
“…change in temperature…”
The Yale geographer, Ellsworth Huntington, thought that the mild stresses caused by variability in weather and climate was essentially healthy:
https://archive.org/details/civilizationandc031898mbp
Probably, if you are young and healthy. But as most of us know, if you arrive from the UK somewhere where it is 32 degrees, that feels very hot. After 3-4 days, it doesn’t. It is very easy for the young to adapt but much less easy for those whose systems are all in very poor condition.
Gamecock is always amused by British politicians on world stage moaning about it getting warmer.
“Warmer” would easily win a referendum.
The objective of Net Zero is to keep UK from getting warmer. How stupid is that?
A relevant interview. Sarah Caul was awarded an MBE for her work.
https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2021/general-news/statistics-are-vital-an-interview-with-sarah-caul/
” direct harm from extreme heat is still less common but this is likely to change over time.”
The bias is explicit in that statement.
I, on the other hand, expect deaths from heat to decline (as a %) as air conditioning and societal concern grow.
Something as simple as a spray-bottles and many more:
https://gadgets-reviews.com/review/13-top-10-gadgets-to-keep-you-cool-this-summer.html
Many people now have spray-facilities (misters) for their outdoor events.
https://www.hgtv.com/outdoors/outdoor-spaces/decks–porches-and-patios/best-outdoor-deck-misters
Cancel just one wind facility and subsidize the things in those two links and the people would be better served.
Politicians revert to blaming AGW when they are loath to do useful things.
Funny thing, for many years I have travelled to much hotter climates than the UK and observed millions upon millions of elderly people spending lots of money to go to them for purposes of enjoyment, and I can’t see I’ve ever seen any of them not make it home…
Strange or what!