Electric car sales set to plummet with falling driver demand ahead of major announcement
By Paul Homewood
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has lowered its forecast for electric car sales following the Autumn Statement as major manufacturers plan to invest heavily in EVs.
The OBR announced that it was reducing its forecast for electric vehicles’ share of new car sales in 2027 to just 38 per cent, a huge drop compared to the 67 per cent it projected in March.
It stated that the growth of electric car sales had slowed with drivers avoiding new EVs, as many delay buying a new car because of cost pressures.
In September, the Prime Minister announced that the deadline to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars would be delayed from 2030 to 2035.
The OBR suggested that this could be a reason for people delaying their decision to buy a new car, as well as expensive upfront costs.
Electric vehicles accounted for 16.5 per cent of new car sales in 2022/23, although this was more than one percentage point below the OBR’s March 2023 forecast of 17.7 per cent.
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The OBR generally base their forecasts on the Government’s own data and assumptions. This would suggest that this forecast for EV sales is actually the latter’s assessment as well.
For what it is worth, I don’t believe EV sales will get anywhere near even 38%. The business/fleet market is already probably near saturation point, and there is very little interest amongst private motorists.
This raises the question of where it leaves motor manufacturers under the government’s zero emission vehicle mandate, which says that 52% of new car sales in 2027 must be zero emission. If manufacturers fail to hit the target, they must pay a penalty of £15000 per car, although they can carry forward deficits.
If they even manage to sell 38% EVs, there will still be a shortfall of about 280,000 cars. At £15k a time, the penalties would add up to £4.2 billion in 2027.
A penalty of this magnitude would kill off the UK motor industry. That would leave them with two choices:
1) Try and recoup the penalty on the selling price of ICEs, which would add about £3000 for every car sold.
2) Produce and sell fewer ICEs, in order to boost the ratio of EVs.
In reality, I suspect they will end up doing both. By putting up prices, they will automatically reduce demand.
In short, if we do not obey the government and buy ICEs instead of EVs, we will have to pay an extortionate tax instead.
I don’t remember voting for this!
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Green regressive taxes. Turn a necessity into vice and the sky is the limit on taxes.
I see Nissan have announced two new EVs and an updated Leaf for their UK plant. I suppose they’re taking reduced volumes into account and reckon there’s enough capacity to do that.
I still puzzle over new battery technology with twice the capacity charging in 10 minutes in a facility charging 20 vehicles in parallel a typical supermarket forecourt. For a 350 mile range, roughly what I do in my ICE between fills, you’re talking 100kWh.At 100 charges per hour that’s a big expensive installation and lot of AC to convert to DC.
Hmm, aye, Nissan, no axe to grind but on hindsight, maybe they should have called that Leaf ” Acorn” … that it may develop further.
Now rightly so as you rightly say regarding Charging Stations ( Still filling station, init? ) But I believe they have large Batteries with all the incumbent electronics to discharge controllably into your car. and how efficient is that? Jut think of the Mega kWHrs of power stored underground in the usual tanks – which for cars at least , you could even fill by hand-power. ( Do they even know what a handle is ? )
Yes, someone up-top hasn’t done their sums properly! And they certainly don’t inhabit the same world as I do!
Be careful what you wish for!
The activist group which targeted Ineos early in the year – even gaining access to the oil terminal by using kayaks – is now calling on the company to provide a “just transition” for workers and the town of Grangemouth instead of a “sudden closure”.
Trigger warning!! There’s an awful lot of green socialist nonsense
https://www.falkirkherald.co.uk/business/climate-camp-scotland-blasts-ineos-for-sudden-closure-of-grangemouth-refinery-4421467
I see no mention that because energy costs in this country are so high it is not economic to run a refinery. Grangemouth nearly closed earlier because of costs. And Grangemouth just joins the other refinery that are now storage facilities.
The plan is to stop car ownership to take away our mobility. BEVs are just a distraction.
And not just private vehicles but vans, lorries, buses.
And back to… where will the electricity come from and how will it get into the batteries if there were enough?
A bit OTT, Ben. I can’t think how a modern society could function without delivery vans, lorries and then, buses for transport.
There’s a certain level o political arrogance – not to say, pure bloody ignorance – for government to mandate the market. Whenever this had happened in the past it has failed. But they never learn.
London starves in less than a month.
Used ICE cars will hold their values nicely, especially diesels and sensible mileage, clean runabouts.
Politicians really are so arrogant at times. They think they can snap their fingers and ‘it’ happens. Reality check incoming!
This ridiculous EV mandate will be a major embarrassment for them and in a worst-case scenario could be a financial disaster for the industry.
A growing industry for manufacturing new engines for old cars.
Key component to manufacture: ECU.
Ford has been using the same one for decades, so no problem. Other brands can be problematic.
Gamecock had a problem a few years ago acquiring an ECU for a 15 year old Dodge truck. As the years go by, they can become the most critical part.
US regulations require manufacturers to maintain parts for their vehicles for at least 10 years. Afterwards, anything can happen. The progression of technology can result in the end of previous technologies. After market production of electronic gear can be impossible.
Spot on!
Financial disaster already happening. The biggies have invested tens of billions in EV manufacture. The expected uptake ain’t happening.
Net Zero is dying but rather slowly. The EV rules will keep on being changed till the market alone dictates supply and prices.
“I don’t remember voting for this !”
YES, YOU DID,
You voted for a party who agreed with the 2008 climate act (only a few brave individuals voted against ), & this is the result !!
Give it a few years … & you’ll have nothing,
but the man says you’ll be happy.
And the Tories will say we supported Net Zero as it was in their manifesto – totally uncosted of course.
There was no plebiscite. It was Tory government alone that supported Net Zero, applauded by the usual minority . Any party manifesto that includes the abandonment of Net Zero gets my vote. Sooner or later elements of the media will find the courage to say the same.
It’s nonsense though. I voted Tory to make sure we didn’t get Corbyn and to ensure Brexut wasn’t reversed. Had I been able to vote for that and an end to Net Zero, I would have done.
“The future isn’t what it used to be.”
Naw, that’s quite right, People die now who never used to die. No worries.
Its all happiness and great joy here in Sunderland now that Nissan has announced all electric production, according to the news it safeguards 6,000 jobs at the Nissan plant and 45,000 in the local economy.
But it still depends on selling the BEVs somewhere in the world, I honestly hope it works, but I have serious doubts after VW, Mercedes and Ford all paused BEV plans.
But it still depends on selling the BEVs somewhere in the world,’ And THAT will depend on a shipping company being willing to transport said BEVs in its ships!!
‘In September, the Prime Minister announced that the deadline to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars would be delayed from 2030 to 2035.’
So you have 12 years to strip authority of the PM to ban vehicles. Other powers should be stripped as well. Ban him before he bans you.
According to the SMMT nearly 1m people are employed in th UK car manufacturing and the wider automotive industry and it accounts for 10% of total UK exports and some £77bn in UK trade. Do the politicians really want to destroy the industry?
They have been assured there will be far more new Green jobs. Exports do not matter and are domestic inputs of labour, energy and capital consumed by foreigners.
The drum beat of dictator-style impositions rolls on. Today the hidden relaxation of the separation distance between the installation of a noisy yet inefficient heat pump and a neighbouring property. Yesterday it was the huge increase of taxpayers money to persuade wind farm moguls to bid for new development in the North Sea etc – bloody bribery and corruption in the highest places in our Nation. This current crop of politicians need to be culled at the next election of seats in our Parliament, which is not theirs.
Just read that ‘car tax’ will be applied to EVs from 2025. Oh deep joy.
Yeay! Now watch the you-know-what hit the fan. If the Gov doesn’t get the message then, they never will!
Why not NOW?
The thing is, if the technology in EVs was found in ICEs then EVs wouldn’t sell. Also,, the sector seems to waiting for the miracle battery that will run for 1,000 miles – notwithstanding it will take a few hours to charge from near-flat. And that’s the rub: people don’t want to have to plane to spend hours hanging round a charging station on a long trip. The ‘re-fuelling’ for batteries will be the Achilles heel of the concept. I can’t imagine any government (until now) thinking they could mandate what products people should buy….
Pony and trap, anyone?
“if the technology in EVs was found in ICEs then EVs wouldn’t sell”
What tech is that – apart from the battery etc, obviously?
From what I read in the motoring press, all cars are festooned with the same myriad bits of tech, irrespective of the motive power.
From comments on EV forums, one area where EV technology has made progress is charging speeds and curves with many/most cars able to charge at 150 kW and some at up to 350 kW. As the aficianados point out, it’s normal to stop after 2-3 hours or so for a comfort break/coffee/snack – long enough to add another 2-3 hours or so of range.
AFAIK high speed charging still comes with a big penalty on battery life and longer term capacity. You would probably want to avoid doing it more than a couple of times a year if you actually own the vehicle or expect to have to drive it more than 3 years. The resale value of an EV with a knackered battery is poor.
It’s not that clear-cut, aiui. Older cars and some which are not up to the latest standards are do suffer battery degradation from fast charging. However, newer cars with more advanced battery management systems are more robust, especially Teslas – they even precondition the battery ahead of charging. Repeated rapid charging is not recommended, even so, but, for most users, it is not a frequent occurrence.
There is also the back-stop of the manufacturers’ battery warranties – typically 8 years with some offering 10.
Wrt used EVs, there is software available which enables the “health” of the battery to be checked, showing degradation, weak cells, etc. It may even show the charging history.
The general perception on EV forums is that battery life is turning out to be better than expected, with the exception of a few specific older designs. If battery failures were commonplace after only a few years, it would be all over the motoring press and probably the MSM too!
Gamecock insists range and charging times are marketing. They are irrelevant to actual EV owners.
EV owners drive locally. Only. They put it on charge when they get back home, where it has overnight to recharge. Range and charging time are irrelevant.
Repeat: The range and charging time wars are in the marketing realm, and have no actual value to owners. First time shoppers, who have never had an EV before, don’t realize that. They will actually pay big bucks to get the upgraded battery!
The cumulative range capability of existing EVs probably exceeds the need by 50%.
Furthermore, the cost of EVs could be substantially reduced if batteries were sized for actual use patterns. Can’t happen now. Years of range based marketing has the public believing range is important.
A lot of EV users would agree that great range is not needed. They are happy with 100 – 150 miles in cars like the Mini, HondaE, Fiat 500e and the like which are typically used as town cars.
However there are also lots of users who rack up significant miles and make full use of the 250 – 350 mile ranges of the higher end models.
This thread shows the diversity of opinions and requirements:
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=247&t=2046975
” This thread shows the diversity of opinions and requirements: ”
Would be interesting to read the opinions of BEV users if the comparative running costs for BEV and ICE were measured on a level playing field re: tax and subsidy.
No one has said when foreign imports of ICE vehicles is to happen. If they have I’ve missed it. I’m bubblewrapping a couple of Citroen diesels- last for ever.
he EV revolution will not happen because it cannot happen.
EVs are too expensive new except for companies with income tax incentives for employees. And do you really think VED will not increase for EVs or maybe road-pricing? And the pence per mile cost for ‘fuel’ is marginal if you recharge at publice charge points.
EVs are not going to save the planet. Never mind child labour in the Congo or decimation of the environment processing lithium, the electricity is currently produced mostly by gas and hence the CO2 emissions are still there – just remote. And the recycling of EV batteries looks problematic even if possible.
EVs are impractical given the limited range and poor coverage of the charging infrastructure; an infrastructure unlikely to improve because we don’t have the electricity generation to service it. Besides, who wants to wait 45 minutes to ‘refuel’? My son’s Tesla runs for 350 miles and then takes an hour to recharge. My petrol Toyota goes for 400 miles on a full tank and takes five minutes to refuel.
EVs lose value at an incredible rate with secondhand examples bordering on worthless, because word has got around that battery replacement is incredibly expensive – more than the car is worth. QED: secondhand buyers won’t touch them with a bargepole. A battery life of ten years is ridiculously low when ICE cars will last 20 or more years.
Running on from this last point, the ‘residual value’, which props up company car leasing is going to prove a major problem for leasing prices.
Insurance for EVs is increasing exponentially. £5,000 per annum for a Tesla anyone? The reasons are complicated, but could have a lot to do with uncontrollable fires – self inflicted and as a result of damaged batteries in a crash. Insurers will not take chances on damaged batteries and write EVs off.
I could go on, but you get the picture. However, I should mention the really major problem: only 40 per cent of homes have driveway or garage parking. What does someone in a tenth floor flat do? Chuck a cable out the window?
You have to conclude that if our esteemed government keeps pressing forward with EVs, the reason is that they don’t want us plebs to have cars!
And, electricity grid reliability is set to deteriorate with the increase in unreliable Green generation sources.
Nor a car manufacturing industry, Chris.
The only way manufacturers can be sure to hit government targets for EVs as a share of total sales is to not sell ICE cars. And that means not making them. I expect manufacturers to start announcing closures from 2024 onwards. Remainers moaned and whined about Brexit causing that – I expect total silence from them when it happens because of a Green dictatorship.
As a wise woman once said “You can’t buck the markets”! We’re a year away from the next General Election and which ever party has a manifesto pledge to scrap Net Zero and all its incumbents, will win. We’re sick of pandering to pseudo-science! Bring back Common Sense!
High risk investment. The not so black swan will be the next multi story car park fire after Luton. Total collapse of market
If the Government stick to its revised Net Zero requirements and fining structure for not meeting EV/ICE production ratios, have they announced how they will deal with ‘personal imported’ vehicles? I recall a time when flying to Belgium to pick up your nice new right hand drive vehicle provided a healthy discount but not £15000 a pop. Does anyone believe that come 2035 there will be no countries in Continental Europe where you will be able to buy a new ICE vehicle. I’d be very surprised if even the ultra law abiding Germans don’t cement a get-around clause – diesel vehicles set up to run on vegetable oil will work just as effectively on diesel or heating oil with minimum conversion.
Choking on supply, starved of demand…
Car Dealers Warn Biden Administration to Pump Brakes on EV Plans
Nov 28, 2023
According to EV Voice of the Customer, the reason for car buyers’ reluctance to purchase EVs stems from the still high price of EVs—even with incentives—and the fact that most buyers don’t have a garage. Other concerns cited include insufficient charging infrastructure, energy grid instability, and critical minerals required in the manufacture of EVs batteries.
. . .
“Early adopters formed an initial line and were ready to buy these vehicles as soon as we had them to sell. But that enthusiasm has stalled. Today, the supply of unsold BEVs is surging, as they are not selling nearly as fast as they are arriving at our dealerships — even with deep price cuts, manufacturer incentives, and generous government incentives.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Car-Dealers-Warn-Biden-Administration-to-Pump-Brakes-on-EV-Plans.html
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Yet more arm-twisting required 🙄