URGENT WARNING Scotland’s climate changing at alarming rate
By Paul Homewood
h/t Dave R
From the Scottish Sun
SCOTLAND’S climate is changing faster than expected, according to new research.
Boffins at the James Hutton Institute in Aberdeen says average February temperatures have already reached some projections for 2050.
They found in certain parts of Scotland, temperatures have risen by 2.5C in February – with an average of 16.9C in the period of 1960-1989 increasing to 19.4C during the three decades of 1990-2019.
Researchers also warned of an increase in water scarcity in the near future, stating it could threaten agriculture, forestry, animal habitats, and hamper the country’s peatland restoration efforts.
The number of consecutive dry days is also expected to increase in drier months, including September.
Dr Rivington said: "Our climate is changing and this has many implications.
"It will increase stress on species and habitats and how well ecosystems function.
"Without fully functioning healthy ecosystems, agriculture and other ways nature supports society and the economy become impeded.
"Threats include water shortages reducing agricultural productivity, and risk water supplies running out at points in the year.
"Less and warmer water in streams impacts river health and water quality due to higher concentrations of pollution, but also increased potential for flooding in winter due to increased rainfall."
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/11671877/climate-change-scotland-alarming-rate/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67752167
Back on Earth, February temperatures in Scotland have barely altered in the last twenty years:
And summer rainfall trends have changed little over time:
I suggest the Scottish Government asks for its money back, as it has been sold a pack of lies.
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
“Water scarcity?”?
“Consecutive dry days?”
Have the authors ever been to Glasgow!!!???
In Cornwall (of all wet places in England) they are going to build desalination plants. You couldn’t make it up (but they did in Australia where there was going to be premanent drought)|
That is full on madness. The Jersey desalination plant (it’s an island so makes sense) quotes “At full capacity the plant produces 10.8 Ml of fresh water and consumes 45,000 kW of electrical power per day.”
No that is not a typo but a direct quote from
https://www.jerseywater.je/about-us/learn-more/desalination-plant/
Yep they really say “45,000 kW of electrical power per day.”
Presuming they mean 45MWh daily (who knows what they think they mean) then desalination is a massive energy consumer.
So how is it South West Water think they they are going to save the planet by using so much unnecessary energy?
You could be right, Ray. But first we need to know what their definition of a day is. If we assume it’s 24 hours then they have consumed 1.85 MWh of power per hour. Of course, they could just run the plant for an hour……🤔 (but then, Jersey would face a blackout, maybe).
Hmmm….now I’m beginning to doubt my own arithmetic…
Phillip;
thanks to a scare largely by Tim Flannery (then Climate Commissioner) most State Govt. installed desalination plants. As far as I know (because there seems a reluctance from official circles to mention the matter) only the West Australian plant runs quite a bit of the time. The South Australian plant only runs a few hours to meet maintenance requirements but the diesel generators are more often used to prop up the State electricity supply when renewables don’t work.
Flannery has shun publicity for years and he has almost been forgotten although there was a line “is it true or just a flannery” going a few years back.
I have a few of his comments saved which look hilarious now e.g.
2005, Tim Flannery predicted Sydney’s dams could be dry in as little as two years because global warming was drying up the rains. The following year, dams in Brisbane and Sydney were filled to overflowing
2008, Tim Flannery said: “The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009
Its so they can say ‘we had to build a Desal plant because muh! Climate Change™
There’s supposed to be a lot of snow and very low temperatures in Scotland over Christmas. Mind you the weather forecasters keep changing the forecast every few hours – they really have no clue beyond a few days.
“Getting Sunnier Jim” Dale always gets it right Phillip, and he can forecast 100 years ahead to the nearest 0.1C.
Last night (Sumday 12/12/23) on BBC4 the man forecasting the weather for this said the various computer models were changing so fast it is difficult to be sure what will happen!
So thats it – it isn’t weather changing but all the different models.
Interesting. On Friday GB News asked the legend that is John Kettley if snow was likely for Christmas and he said that the various models were all over the place. Should they not be the same with the ‘settled science’? He made this interesting comment that a year ago it was cold and snowy, which concurs with the notes I have for my energy readings to remind my the gas use was so high.
An increase in scarcity?
An average temperature in Scotland in February of 19.4C?
That really is a fantasy. Or are they talking about the central heating?
“Certain areas”. They have scoured Scotland to find averages that fit the claims they want to make. Same as after the smoking ban in Scotland. Group produced a study showing heart attacks in hospitals had fallen. But weirdly it only used data from 1/3 of hospitals. When all were included, there was no fall – 1/3 showed declines, 1/3 no change, 1/3 an increase.
Phoenix, there is nowhere outdoors in Scotland with an average February temperature of “19.4C” The daily February mean in Cairo is only 15.6C!!!!!
Paul, that return to reality meant my plans for a nice warm September trip to see where my grandparents came from. Argyll and Hebrides will now just be the usual lottery with the weather
As a Scot I have created records of mean temperature and actual rainfall for Scotland using met office data for the last 120 years (as anybody could). These figures quoted bear no relation to any actual numbers I have. Perhaps the temps quoted are maxima, they are certainly not mean. Ave annual temps in Scotland are around 8, warmer than early 20th century but consistently 2 deg below CET , with very high correlation. Ave rainfall is about twice England. This sounds like creative use of date. Try convincing a Scot his country is warm and dry!
would be curious to know if you had data for the Inner Morayfirth area from , say the very cold winters of 1960 onwards to 1990, or the present. There were very mild years in the late 60’s and very wet with Snow & rain in the early 70’s . Hills didn’t know if they’d be white or “black” on a daily basis over the Xmas fortnight periods . The sun shone in between and we got as good a suntan from working outdoors for a week or two as folk spent their hard-earned cash on holidays abroad in the summer.
No I do not have anything as specific as Moray Firth. The Met office give data for N, E , and W Scotland (not S for some reason) and Scotland as a whole which I used. You would need Excel to analyse data.
Hi saighdear, would this data from Nairn be of any use?
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/nairndata.txt
Obvious p hacking. Find places in arbitrary periods that are outliers. Then pretend outliers to averages have never been seen before. Let’s see what happened in all the other areas, not just “certain areas”. Why would climate change only appear in certain areas of Scotland over a 30 year period?
Utter fraud.
I would suggest that land use has changed and more concrete and steel has has been built only in certain areas. I would expect higher temperatures downwind of major wind and solar farms. I would expect different precipitation patterns downwind of major wind and solar farms. I know that major roadways show up in weather patterns. This is local climate change caused by humans, but the overall climate systems of the earth have self correcting natural responses that prevent the overall climate from getting outside of the climate bounds of the last ten thousand years.
The ‘not expected till 2050’ shtick is blatant gaslighting.
‘Not expected’ by whom? Why didn’t they expect it? Why are they wrong? What’s caused current temperatures and is it ‘climate change’ or natural, as per sub-Pacific volcano eruptions?
If they did but such temperatures really are here, now, surely all it really means is they got their predictions hopelessly wrong?
If so why should anyone take any notice of them now or in the future?
Almost everything these charlatans say and do is a lie.
Link no longer works so maybe the Scottish Sun have realised it is bollocks.
It’s dead – disappeared at an alarming rate 😉
Makes me think someone at the Scottish Sun just made it all up. When a few people with half a brain realised it was pure invention they pulled it.
Aye, the James Hutton Institute, eh? Now if it was the Rowett, that WOULD have been something to sit up and take note of, IMHO. ( UofA has been going to the dogs this past few decades ) as for the Link Sorry, page unavailable ! Ha ha ha! and if you search for it https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/?s=+climate-change-scotland-alarming-rate NOT so funny but just about sums up the calibre of their readership ! ( Sorry for the fingr on pulse readers)
However what did the headline mean? “Ave Temps reaching levels not expected until 2050 ” ? I have a spare corner in the Midden for this stuff.
Water scarcity – where’s that going to occur?
Meanwhile multiple roads & bridges in Aberdeenshire / Angus were damaged in the November deluged, within an hours drove of the James Hutton institute.
My own home weather station shows 2013 to have been the wettest in the past 10 years, so call me dubious on that piece of scarium as well.
I quote: “They found in certain parts of Scotland, temperatures have risen by 2.5C in February – with an average of 16.9C in the period of 1960-1989 increasing to 19.4C during the three decades of 1990-2019”.
YOU WHAT??????
Which “certain parts of Scotland”? Inside the Scottish Parliament building or in the overheated office where the heroes who produced this sit maybe?
An AVERAGE of 19.6deg C? Not bad considering the average February temperature in Marbella is 3.6 degrees LESS!
And to think all those people wasting their money going to the South of Spain when they can be basking in Peterhead instead!
Do this lot sell second hand cars and timeshares as well?
This Ryan Mcdougall has completely screwed up because he is comparing a months worth of data from this one year year with a rolling 30 years annual mean data set. So not only is it monthly vs annual which is wrong, but 1960 to 1989 is the wrong 30 year data set anyway. The current data set should be 1990 to 2019 however its still 30 year annual vs monthly singular!! Its just idiotic.
Anyway, back to Earth, just like the asinine headlines telling us that sea level is rising faster in one place than anywhere else, that indicates whatever is the cause it is not global but LOCAL therefore nothing to do with their sacred cow. Could it be they have a weather station next to a new Amazon warehouse?
Yet more raw CRAP from the warmist/gweenie/woke shower! Give over!
How about compared to the period of 1930 – 1959?
“They found in certain parts of Scotland, temperatures have risen by 2.5C in February – with an average of 16.9C in the period of 1960-1989 increasing to 19.4C during the three decades of 1990-2019.
Researchers also warned of an increase in water scarcity in the near future, stating it could threaten agriculture, forestry, animal habitats, and hamper the country’s peatland restoration efforts.”
Utter bollocks! Someone would have to check the original source. I suspect it must surely be The Sun that has screwed up. I don’t think it ever reaches 19.4C anywhere in Scotland in February, perhaps the dining room at Balmoral?
This used to be the Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, I once had an office there and knew a few people. If the Sun report is correct then their ridiculousness needs to be made public. E
The Sun article seems to be taken down. And I can’t find the James Hutton report.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/11671877/climate-change-scotland-alarming-rate/
Luckily Euan, the UStimes post ran the article pretty much word for word.
https://ustimespost.com/scotlands-climate-is-changing-at-an-alarming-rate-and-average-temperatures-are-reaching-levels-not-expected-before-2050
It references the “reports” which appear to not be directly from the Hutton Institute. Weird that the Scottish Sun should pull the article. Might I suggest this Mike Rivington has gone somewhat “rogue” with his extreme remarks – famous for 5 minutes?
Where is William Wallace when you need him? Those pesky inter-glacial warming periods do sneak up on you, and when they do–you need BraveHeart!
Here is a link that gives the full text of the Scottish Sun article that has been pulled.
https://ustimespost.com/scotlands-climate-is-changing-at-an-alarming-rate-and-average-temperatures-are-reaching-levels-not-expected-before-2050/#google_vignette
I found the following line most interesting.
“The study, carried out on behalf of the Scottish Government, says that the increase in winter rainfall has also already exceeded forecasts for 2050.”
Well looking the the Met office time series for winter rainfall in Scotland, it has actually flatlined for the last 30 years!!!
Everything is alarming to folks baffled by the dimensions of units of measure.
The original source is here
https://www.hutton.ac.uk/news/scotland%E2%80%99s-climate-changing-faster-predicted
It includes all the nonsense claims so it wasn’t a misprint by the Scottish Sun. The linked summary strangely has no numbers in it. In turn it links to three other papers and provides an email for the lead researcher. He has successfully completely undermined the credibility of his work. Perhaps someone should ask him about that.
I’ve also seen the same wording on the BBC.
Clearly they know they’ve been rumbled. The text now reads
In some parts of the country, temperatures in February, for example, have risen 2.5°C, since 2060. This observed change is comparable to the lower range of what climate scientists had projected for the future period 2020-2050, implying we are on course to reach the projections of higher temperatures.
SINCE 2060? Did they pass primary school?
Thanks!!
I see there is no correction acknowledgment.
Fortunately we still have Wayback!!!!
http://web.archive.org/web/20231219012205/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67752167
Thanks for the info IDAU. I have emailed the institute asking them for their explanation. If I get a reply I shall post it on here.
Clearly the James Hutton Institute in Aberdeen are meteorologically illiterate and in particular regarding the methodology in which meteorological data is recorded and collated.
Since when does anyone ever take just one month of average temperature data in isolation and compare it with a rolling 30 year annual mean data set which ended 34 years prior in 1989 to demonstrate what precisely?
What a complete know nothing idiot Ryan Mcdougall has shown himself to be.
If this is the worthless work that the James Hutton Institute comes with then any budding meteorologists and indeed statisticians should steer well clear.
Clearly lies and scaremongering the warmest Feb ave temp for Scotland is 6.4c, the maximum being 8.7c ref Met office [post jan 2020 manipulated data]
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/ranked/Scotland.txt
MSM don’t employ journalists anymore, they are just headline grabbers after the most extreme ‘story’, it matters not if it’s total bollocks, as they still get paid and there are no repercussions.
I started reading through the underlying papers. The comment that there were big locational discrepancies in the extent of warming in February soon had me looking at this:
The increase in maximum temperatures from 1990-2019 compared to the base period. The darkest red is worth about 2C. It seems to be located at Balmoral.
What has Charles been up to causing so much climate change?
Source:
Click to access D2_1a%20Climate%20trends%20summary%20report%20FINAL%206-12-22.pdf