Met Office Set to Ditch Actual Temperature Data in Favour of Model Predictions
By Paul Homewood
Some things you just cannot make up!!
The alternative climate reality that the U.K. Met Office seeks to occupy has moved a step nearer with news that a group of its top scientists has proposed adopting a radical new method of calculating climate change. The scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years should be ditched, and replaced with 10 years of actual data merged with model projections for the next decade. The Met Office undoubtedly hopes that it can point to the passing of the 1.5°C ‘guard-rail’ in short order. This is junk science-on-stilts, and is undoubtedly driven by the desire to push the Net Zero collectivist agenda.
In a paper led by Professor Richard Betts, the Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office, it is noted that the target of 1.5°C warming from pre-industrial levels is written into the 2016 Paris climate agreement and breaching it “will trigger questions on what needs to be done to meet the agreement’s goal”. Under current science-based understandings, the breaching of 1.5°C during anomalous warm spells of a month or two, as happened in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2023, does not count. Even going above 1.5°C for a year in the next five years would not count. A new trend indicator is obviously needed. The Met Office proposes adding just 10 years’ past data to forecasts from a climate model programmed to produce temperature rises of up to 3.2°C during the next 80 years. By declaring an average 20-year temperature based around the current year, this ‘blend’ will provide ”an instantaneous indicator of current warming”.
Full story here.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
“…this ‘blend’ will provide ”an instantaneous indicator of current warming”. “
—in other words, knee-jerk science.
You can’t call it ‘science’ at all.
But real temperature readings [ unadjusted ], do not show what the politicians and Green Loonies want , and in fact show that the world has been below 30 year average temp for the last 8 years . https://temperature.global/
So no actual science will be allowed in their propaganda because facts prove the whole Global Warming fraud is a load of lies .
The next thing you know they will be telling us Elf is a documentary.
But, but … It is !!
The tooth fairy told me
If the documentary is on the BBC and narrated by Sir David Attenborough
Haha. I warned about this a couple of weeks ago. In keeping with the Christmassy theme:
“Betts of the Met has the answer: consult the Ghost of Climate Change Future and see what he has to say, and combine his warnings with the testimony of the Ghosts of Climate Change Past and Present and thus designate their combined testimonies as ‘present’ for the purpose of informing policy here and now! There, climate Scrooged. No really, a friend thought I was actually joking when I quoted this from Betts of the Met’s recent paper published in Nature:”
https://jaimejessop.substack.com/p/met-office-15c-lies-and-shenanigans
Not content with rewriting climate history ( no MWP or Roman WP, the little ice age wasn’t worldwide etc.) the alarmists will now dump more trash into their GIGO models. The Met Office should be renamed as the Propaganda Office.
How yesterday. Where I live (California) they no longer report temperature, but a “heat index”.
It’s a bit wet and mild in SW England ( not unusual at Christmas) but the weather alarmists have been suggesting the HOTTEST ever Christmas Day night happen. With a day to go it’s clearly not going to be.
@Devon it’s the forecast that’s remembered not the actuality
I guess I have mentioned it before but clearly, Gilbert & Sullivan would have had a field day with these guys, or maybe 1984 is their main bed time reading
I blame Paul again….. Time and again, he’s shown that the boring facts and accurate historical records show their (quasi-) religious alarmism is largely unjustified.
Is it a surprise that Betts is involved in this alarmist idea? The Met Office is now a full on ecofascist organisation that is part of the DESNZ economic destruction ministry.
I have been to the Met office several times for meetings and met Richard Betts. They are all fine scientists but there is a lot of collective group think. Get them individually however and the consensus is nowhere near as strong as the official position would suggest.
The Met Office has a magnificent library and archive which alas they do not make full use of as historical records are not their strong point. They are certainly not “ecofascists”
I am prepared to accept your description of “fine scientists”. There was a time when I accepted Betts as one of the “good guys, at least to the extent that he was prepared to engage with sceptics.
But every word of this approach tells even the most ignorant of laymen that what they are doing is emphatically not science.
Everything is geared to this meaningless 1.5° (itself downgraded from 2° when it became clear that that was well out of reach this century), itself plucked out of thin air by Rahmsdorf at the Potsdam Institut to keep the politicians happy.
They are in complete denial about historical temperatures; they are still (in spite of the palæontological evidence) determined to believe, or at least have us believe, that Earth’s temperature is the highest in a hundred millennia; they are still determined to lay the “blame” for this minuscule rise of the last 100-odd years on man-made CO2 in spite of no scientific evidence to support this conjecture ………
And on, and on.
Sorry, I really cannot accept they are fine scientists when I see X posts like this. https://twitter.com/richardabetts/status/1738669412910023135?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
He comes across as a Grade A pratt to me.
It’s Christmas, Ray; I’m feeling kindhearted. But he was on occasion prepared to engage on Montford’s ‘Bishop Hill’ blog.
Mike
He also had dinner with Anthony Watts when he was over from the States some years ago, together with Nic Lewis. He got in an awful lot of trouble for that I believe from the hierarchy and those heavily involved in the cheer leading. Since then he has stopped engaging. He is certainly not a grade A pratt, Ray.
Politics gets in the way, together with group think and a belief that historic temperatures only have a relevance up to a point. The theory that CO2 is a prime driver is widely accepted but not by all
Maybe not a Grade A prat for writing that X post, but certainly dishonest in claiming that his proposed method of determining a 1.5C breach will only be an ‘indicator’ to be confirmed by later observations. That’s a lie. He means for it to be used in policy making:
“Researchers and the policy community need to agree urgently on a metric for determining the current level of global warming for policy purposes. Once defined, the metric should be formally adopted for use in the context of the Paris agreement.”
Betts was once a reasonable, down to earth scientist. Not anymore. He has been swallowed up by the climate alarmist hive mind and promotes politically motivated pseudoscience in place of real science and empirical data.
Yet based on their utter nonsense we get fascistic state control. So what are they then?
The study of climate is a scientific endeavour.
The notion that climate (other than at a very local level) can be influenced by mankind is a socio-political obsession by environmental activists determined to “unwind the Industrial Revolution”, as witness their determination to demonise CO2 (the one substance common to all coal/oil/gas usage) and at the same time oppose nuclear power as the most likely means of offsetting the loss of fossil fuels.
Science has nothing to do with it.
Those who involve themselves in this charade (especially those who claim ‘the science is settled’ and those who believe that the output of computer programs is meaningful when applied to a chaotic system like climate) have sacrificed the right to be called ‘scientists’. (In my opinion, you understand.)
Well said Sir.
‘They are certainly not “ecofascists”’
‘Climate science’ has been commandeered by the ecofascists. Though they may not individually be ecofascist, their function is.
Get rid of the lot. Anyone not involved with weather forecasting should be let go. What we see is scope creep, taking on unchartered functions to grow the organization.
Just.like.the.government.
“They are all fine scientists”
Maybe once, but not any more.
They’ve taken the Davos shilling.
Hear, Hear, Mr Catweazle. They may have been honest scientists years ago but are now undoubtedly part of the ecofascist mob.
“Or are they just very slow readers? I suppose our paper does use big words like “temperature” so maybe they had to get a grown-up to help”
That is how a Grade A Pratt comments in reply to a serious argument.
“The 12 Days Of Climate Doomster Christmas”
A light-hearted look at what the climate doomsters have imposed upon us
https://davidturver.substack.com/p/12-days-of-climate-doomster-christmas
Mike
Two very senior met office scientists that I know do not believe we are in the hottest period in hundreds of thousands of years nor that historical records should be discounted. However they are a political pawn whose “science” is invaluable to those playing at politics.
If they don’t believe but won’t speak up whilst we lose great swathes of our freedoms they are cowards and complicit. They are not pawns, they are agreeing to play the game.
I agree with Phoenix.
We all know that “it is difficult to persuade a man to believe something when his next pay cheque depends on his not believing it” but there has to be a line somewhere.
Most of them know well enough what the consequences will be 30(?) years down the line when the downturn comes — as it surely will — and we are caught ‘looking in the wrong direction’.
By then, of course, they will be gone. (As, thankfully, shall I!)
That just makes them cowards… instead of liars.
“30(?) years down the line when the downturn comes”
The downturn has already started – and they damn well know it.
That’s why they’ve had to change the methodology, of course.
Why are we even funding the MetOffice …the BBC don’t use them, no one does
As far as I understand, it’s already done in the USA.
I believe that the Met Office has become such a dangerous and politically motivated institution that it should be privatised. This will ensure that the climate scaremongering it has engaged in for many years will be eliminated and it can concentrate on providing accurate weather forecasts. This could also lead to the end of the issuing of the pointless severe weather alerts. We get weather warnings because it’s going to rain. Ridiculous!
Do they really believe this nonsense? It’s as dumb as a 15 year old saying he should get served in a pub because if you use his forecast age he’s 18. And at least that forecast has skill!
Until the second half of this year, the satellite data showed no warming for 7 years. Yet yhe MOs forecasts were nothing like that. They are clowns.
Surely this has a wider implementation in the system of exaggerated forecasts pushed at the press who regularly warn us of impending disaster that almost always turns into a damp squib. The idea being that we remember the dote prediction rather than the mundane reality. Lack of appropriate historical comparison is part of the method. Historical is replaced by hysterical.
“Do you remember where you were when we breached 1.5°C?”
“Me neither.”
Just think how much money they could save by letting a computer make up temperatures rather than running weather stations to actually measure them.
‘it is noted that the target of 1.5°C warming from pre-industrial levels is written into the 2016 Paris climate agreement and breaching it “will trigger questions on what needs to be done to meet the agreement’s goal”‘
“will trigger questions”
OMFG! The dumbest threat evah!
This is the old gag where you tell one person, “It’s a costume party.” UK is playing the fool on the world stage.
Fire Betts, close Climate Impacts at the Met Office, reprimand whoever created the office, restate their function is meteorology – make any mention of ‘climate’ a discharge offense.
Figures do not lie, but liars often figure.
This might be called tossing
Whilst going over Thames Water data supporting their monstrous Abingdon Reservoir (150 million tonnes) it struck me that their data disagreed with the much older Victorian measured data and I couldn’t see why. It turns out that Thames were ignoring the actual historic data and using rainfall data to model their water data over a much shorter period and then extrapolating it.
These people aren’t scientists.
“The data will be tortured until it gives us the answer we want.”
This is criminal
I cannot help comparing the Met office to the Douglas Adams book The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy where The Ultimate Question, the meaning of life the universe and everything, was sought. After seven and a half million years the supercomputer Deep Thought revealed the Ultimate Answer to be 42. Not being the answer expected Deep Thought made the plans for the supercomputer Earth that would solve the Question in ten million years. However, five minutes before it was due to be complete, the Vogons destroyed it to make a hyperspace bypass.
So the Met Office had a computer that is not showing the answer they want to prove Global Warming/Climate Change, therefore, they build another computer that is still not giving them the answer they want so by the time they get near to fooling everyone about Climate Change the sun will have become a supernova and incinerated the Earth anyway.
At which point their warnings about global warming will be proved correct.
Insofar as “1.5” has no justification, other than political, how it relates to science cannot be determined. The U.N. could return the COP to Paris and promote 1.372° as a new signpost and it would make about as much sense.
Important scientific numbers, such as π or √-1, are more interesting.
It is indeed a false precision fallacy.
“they use a decimal point to show they have a sense of humour”
“The scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years should be ditched.” Over the last 30 years? Over the next 30 years? For that, there is no scientific method, but a new supercomputer Merlin will be extremely helpful. Merry Christmas to all 🙂
Since I am likely to be otherwise occupied over the next few hours and into tomorrow, may I take this opportunity to wish everyone — starting obviously with you, Paul — a very merry Christmas. 🎄
Nil desperandum carborundum.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/qbdnq0k800jh2ksab109u/Consensus-Has-Hysteria.pdf?rlkey=4rlir71dvkddwi078nsvgktzt&dl=0
They’ve been at it for years.
“The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.”
~ Prof. Chris Folland ~ (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research)
Liars and charlatans, a disgrace to their profession.
Switcheroo all too obvious “1.5C above pre-industrial levels” is the continuous inference that doesn’t pass the definintion of ‘Science’.
CO2 levels have been higher than present for almost all pre-industrial time.
How convenient to be able to distort the facts to support your agenda.
Canada did this a few years ago… actual readings removed, model readings subbed.
“MASS DEATHS IN THE BLACKOUTS”. When the public finally see though the complete lack of competence and spine in Investigative journalism to ignore and not place any practical science before them ,there will be a new collective noun for them;
“A Lynching of journalists “.
Man made CO2 causing warming is a chimera. There’s no evidence of the noise signal and mr. Betts knows this as well as we do. What is a known known, they GISS , Hadley-met office, NOAA have upped the data sets, it used to be known as corrupting the science. Oh and the other thing, as they done since particularly 1998 – the alarmists are ‘making hay’ while the El Nino period distends the SSTs.
Australian BOM is even worse! They give five day forecasts that are so hopeless it is ignored and then they get tomorrows wrong? They say hottest year evah and I am in pouring rain, howling wind and less than 20 degrees in Gippsland. Australian BOM also needs to be closed, millions saved and hand it over to some scientists.
Perhaps we should have results based funding.
They are, the results as required by the UN/WEF and Davos crowd as well as most Governments.
Wishing everybaody a Merry Christmas and wishing you a happy, healthy and wealthy New Year.
So they’re literally going to make up temperatures to fit in with Net Zero policies. The ultimate self-fulfilling prophecy.
It’s fantasy stuff, and given the financial and social implications I’d aver this is all-but criminal malfeasance.
Many might say that they have been making up temperatures for decades.
Copying the lies used to demonize and jail hippies and simply replacing “drugs” with “electricity” is plagiarism!
Well, well, well….as the crooks/clowns/liars at the Met Orifice get all excited about having a record warm Christmas Day GB News have just announced that China is having the coldest December on record. They need to get those new coal power stations running as quick as possible. And in answer to a question I raised when the cold in China was mentioned some days ago – the records go back to 1951. So there is plenty of scope for it to have been colder yet if we are supposed to believe the ecofascists then surely we should not be seeing any cold records being set?
This is ridiculous. Using only rural measurement sights makes more sense.
Newspapers have published thermometer readings for a couple of centuries now. Who’s graphing THAT data?