T-4 2027/28 Capacity Auction
By Paul Homewood
h/t idau
The results of the T-4 Capacity Auction for 2027/28 have been announced:
These are the highlights:
- Contracts have been awarded for 42.8 GW of de-rated capacity. Added to 15 year contracts already awarded in earlier years, this increases standby to 56.6 GW.
- The auction price is £65/kw, meaning giving a cost for T-4 of £2.8 billion, £100 per household.
- Only 1.6 GW of new build generation is contracted, with nearly all of the rest being existing generators, interconnectors and demand response (DSR)
Maybe the most significant thing about T-4 was its almost total failure to secure any new build generation. The only successful bids went to waste generators – 208MW, and reciprocating engines – 427 MW. Neither will be of any use for our long term energy security. The rest of new build, 1.2 GW, is nearly all battery storage.
But worst of all was the lack of interest of new build even to bid. Only 322 MW of new build exited the auction, mainly OCGT. This tells us that nobody is now prepared to even consider building CCGTs or other large scale generators. This is hardly surprising, given government threats to shut down all fossil fuel generation!
Of the 42.8 GW contracted, 28.6 GW is gas, begging the question of where our backup capacity will come from in 2030, if Labour win the election. Take away gas, all we are left with essentially are interconnectors:
Truly frightening.
Trackbacks
- Douglas Brodie: Net zero and the Hunga Tongo climate change chicanery – The Expose
- Douglas Brodie: Net zero and the Hunga Tongo climate change chicanery - Prophecy News and More
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
It’s not just frightening. It shows that the country is being run by ignorant politicians, their advisers and civil servants. Things will only get worse.
Och its not even ignorant buggas, they’re B***s. There was a programme recently about Council tax spending and the corruption therein - Kangaroo courts etc Hegemony, and we should know in Scotland, is the big player and we saw it during COvid too – the Ignorant B’s with their useful idiots
1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmZfuEMJSkY
2.Bombshell win https://joannenova.com.au
which leads us on to more stuff if you have the time
3 .https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9MxNJzl-1o&t=231s
4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U21-RrB8E6Q
Stand well back and keep domestic missiles safely locked up before you proceed.
Government is always incompetent. It has no way of not being incompetent. The private sector isn’t any less incompetent per se, its just that markets and competition weed out the incompetent and reward competence. Our problem is that more and more is run by government who can never be good at running stuff.
“…government who can never be good at running stuff…”
I remember the 1963 speech by Harold Wilson about harnessing science. He never actually advocated close control by government of the process. In assuming that government could simply point out the way and sit back and enjoy the applause when it all went swimmingly, he was quite naive, despite being a former Oxford economics “don” and a onetime President of the Board of Trade. Control-freaks automatically are drawn to politics and government. They are incorrigible, and always interfere and spoil things. They also have a peculiar ability to rise to the top and accumulate perquisites.
As its ‘planned’ that the UK will deindustrialise completely, create conditions where older people ‘want to die’, allow HMOs to proliferate with inadequate new housing; who needs new electricity generation. Its not as if new electric heating or individual vehicles will be required. Feudal peasants don’t need access to power ( in any meaning of the word).
“…where older people ‘want to die’…”
Canada is showing the way – with a euthanasia rate of 4.1%. 13,102 people had MAID (Medically Assisted in Dying) on their death certificate in 2022. For the moment, plans to extend the kindly law to the ‘mentally ill’ have been shelved. For the moment.
A major new study of worldwide corruption to identify trends in enabler behaviour was announced on 12 February. The project will seek out and highlight red flags for behaviours that help to foster so-called ‘kleptocracies’. Its objective is to propose a new set of rules to combat those actions.
The UK government’s Economic Crime Plan 2 (ECP2) published last March defines a kleptocracy as “a highly corrupted political regime where power has been consolidated for the benefit of a small elite. It is characterised by widespread theft of national wealth and resources to subvert domestic political systems.”
Sounds a lot like net zero.
Sounds a lot like the corporatism that now dominates all Western democracies.
corporatism = fascism. By definition.
Probably the ideal back-up / storage is OCGT with oil / gas firing and stored fuel oil for the emergency. It is easy to convert these to CCGT if the space is allowed on build as a longer outage will need the back-up to operate continuously for days. The right mix is needed urgently.
Batteries and inter-connectors should be regarded as short term only.
Well Spring seems to be on the way going by the sounds of the Birdies at night. There are Heaps and heaps of Herons hanging around here, but some still don’t “Get it” – there are NO FISH in the Pond
Gridwatch shows a quite large demand for Power but wind is only supplying a THIRD ….. ( Nice to confound the greens by not using Percentages )
Do these people know no history? Nothing should ever be named T-4. The T-4 euthanasia programme became the plan to exterminate millions in the gas chambers. Well done guys.
Perhaps it’s a clue as to what the intention is.
you took my hint
So you haven’t noticed what the fourth terminal at Heathrow has been called for the last 40 years?
“…Heathrow”
I wonder what they are planning to call the terminal at Heathrow completed after Terminal 12.
Dave: Terminal name? Dog (IBM hex for decimal 13)?
Terminal 4 mate but I’ve never been in it.
virtue signalling lunatics are running the EUs asylum.
EU votes to criminalize ecocide
https://www.courthousenews.com/eu-votes-to-criminalize-ecocide/
“…new offenses such as large-scale sale of illegal products…”
How can that be a new offense?
Every time you go to the loo, you are committing ecocide on the contents of your bowel. So, be nice to those bacteria and worms. Keep them inside you as long as possible. Feed them with sugary snacks.
This still needs to be approved by the EU governing body, the European Council but I suspect that is just a formality. States then have 2 years to implement it and then they can decide how much they enforce it. An interesting case the site reports is a Dutch wholesaler was intending to send returned goods – fans, kettles – to Tanzania but they were fined for breaching the EU Waste Directive. I presume the end result is Tanzanians denied cheap fans and kettles.
What’s the legal position regarding government ministers obligations for energy security?
What punishment or legal action could theoretically happen to ministers in the event of blackouts or extended power cuts? Is there any liability beyond getting sacked?
Obviously Crown immunity is a thing, but where does gross negligence fit in?
I ask because I think it’s high time an organised group, maybe Net Zero Watch, served Notice on this government and the next, that in the event of power outages the Ministers responsible can expect Court action. It’s time these people had skin in the game.
Is any version of this possible or am I whistling in the wind?
Misfeasance in public office?? Maximum term is ‘life’ in prison but then we all know that no such thing exists in the UK. I would prefer death by hanging.
I can think of one person who could satisfy that particular charge – and be ‘suspended’ as a result: Ed Davey. On at least two counts: Energy and the PO.
A fundamental problem is that we are relying on the private sector to provide our electricity, we don’t do that for roads, railway infrastructure and defense equipment.
The private sector has to raise capital and build generators, in the hope that profits are made a long time in the future. At best we pay an enormous risk premium, at worst private capital simply fails to turn up.
Climanrecon,
unfortunately the market is skewed to favour renewables, so firm dispatchable power has to contend with a reduced output being second in the queue to supply and stated government policy of curtailing fossil fuelled generation excepting with the wasteful and expensive carbon dioxide capture and storage.
There is no incentive to invest in that sector, the very one we really do need.
The Return on Investment is not there for even building new gas plant so nobody is submitting any bids. Germany has the same problem having realised to continue their wind/solar insanity without any nuclear requires gas back-up while destroying the economics of investing in gas plant. The EU is blocking their plan for the state – ie taxpayers – to pay for it as a contravention of state aid rules. There is an irony that it is the state rules on energy that has created this problem which are fully supported by the EU. Words ‘asylum’, ‘running’ and ‘lunatics’ come to mind.
There will always be unintended consequences. “Mob Rule” now seems back in vogue.
We, the peasantry, are not unintelligent to be able to look after ourselves (bar the aged, infirm, and infants)when the going gets particularly tough. There is plenty of wood now in the UK to fuel domestic needs though as time goes by the easy pickings will be taken leaving the harder sources. If the state starts interfering with survival the rule of law will evaporate.
a different world, but one that has been here before.
I think you are missing the lesson from the past where the trees were being felled quicker than they could grow until coal was discovered.
Easter Island didn’t have coal.
But got sacred totems.
Lessons have been learned? Or not.
The Romans began mining coal in Britain, shortly after invading in 43 AD. And the Chinese in the 12th century AD were using coal on a large scale to smelt pig-iron.
Obviously, therefore, by the rules of the CAGW mania, the descendants of these wicked people (i.e. all modern Italians and Chinese) must atone by going back to the stone age for a century or two.
We Brits, it seems, are now off the hook, as we did not start the Industrial Revolution; we were just another third-world country valiantly determined to redress historical imbalances. We demand exemptions under the Paris thingy!
1 GW of Battery Backup?
Is that lots of little ones or an imaginary bog one?
Lots of little ones, many of them near solar farms. They won’t have much to do for the solar farms in winter, so they feel able to offer capacity.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if we had a competent media who could ask Kneeler Flip Flop U-turn-a-week Starmer just how the lights will stay on and people stay alive if they go carbon free by 2030. Obviously the Max Headroom lookalike will reel off his windmills plan but then he can be asked how they will be connected up since all subsea cable layers are already booked up until 2030.
Gezza, there’s a rather large wind (ex) farm being built just up the road from me and it looks like it will face SW. That apart I just wonder how long it will have to wait after completion to be connected to the grid.