Arctic rivers face big changes with a warming climate, permafrost thaw and an accelerating water cycle– LATEST CONVERSATION JUNK SCIENCE
By Paul Homewood
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The Conversation claims to be an independent source of news analysis and informed comment written by academic experts, working with professional journalists who help share their knowledge with the world.
Unfortunately as far as climate change is concerned, it is little more than a one-dimensional propaganda outlet, as this latest article reminds us:
As the Arctic warms, its mighty rivers are changing in ways that could have vast consequences – not only for the Arctic region but for the world.
Rivers represent the land branch of the earth’s hydrological cycle. As rain and snow fall, rivers transport freshwater runoff along with dissolved organic and particulate materials, including carbon, to coastal areas. With the Arctic now warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world, the region is seeing more precipitation and the permafrost is thawing, leading to stronger river flows.
Major river basins of the Arctic region. NOAA Arctic Report Card
We’re climate scientists who study how warming is influencing the water cycle and ecosystems. In a new study using historical data and sophisticated computer models of Earth’s climate and hydrology, we explored how climate change is altering Arctic rivers.
We found that thawing permafrost and intensifying storms will change how water moves into and through Arctic rivers. These changes will affect coastal regions, the Arctic Ocean and, potentially, the North Atlantic, as well as the climate.
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The rest of the article is full of “might bes” and “climate models”. Yet nowhere is there any mention or recognition of how all of this fits into the longer term cycles of Arctic climate. They whittle on about loss of permafrost, without any self awareness about their admission that permafrost can be soil that has only been frozen for as little as two years!
We get clear evidence that this is all about propaganda and not science, when they say “With the Arctic now warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world”.
This claim comes from a previous crooked Conversation article, which stated:
The choice of 1980 as the starting point is very damning, given that this marked the end of four decades of cooling in the Arctic. Any honest scientist would have also mentioned the fact that temperatures now are barely higher than in the 1940s, before that drastic fall in temperatures.
Only at the very end do they write:
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The AMOC scare has already been thoroughly debunked here.
But they show no awareness that their comment about freshening of the Arctic Ocean concerns a natural Arctic climate cycle.
When the Arctic warms, precipitation increases around the region, notably in Siberia and Northern Canada, as their own study observes. The consequence is the discharge into the Arctic Ocean of massive amounts of fresh water. And guess what? Fresh water freezes much more readily than salt water.
As this fresh water enters the polar gyres, it pushes back the warm salty Atlantic waters, which has previously led to the very Arctic warming we have been observing in recent years. Arctic sea ice expands, just as it did during the 1960s and 70s, bringing a much colder climate to the likes of Greenland, Iceland and Siberia.
Proper Arctic scientists have known about this cyclical nature of the climate for decades. For instance, Dickson & Osterhus wrote about it their study “One Hundred Years in the Norwegian Sea”. They described the interlinked cold and warm cycling phases in the Arctic, of which the latest one is just a part:
These climatic shifts are easily identifiable on the above chart of Arctic temperatures.
Nowadays, junk scientists such as Rawlins & Karmalkar, who wrote this Conversation article, simply only consider evidence from the last decade or so, and ignore everything which went before.
No doubt they are well rewarded for publishing this selective misinformation. But it is not science.
Maybe one day the Conversation will publish articles showing the full story, but I am not holding my breath!
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
along with dissolved organic and particulate materials, including carbon
[citation needed]
What magic dissolves carbon?
We’re climate scientists
. . . who talk about dissolved carbon.
In a new study using historical data and sophisticated computer models
Sophisticated. Are they as sophisticated as you ‘scientists?’
Full stop. Gamecock reads no further.
It is carbon bits which scientists use to date various soil layers for age and signs of habitation. Guess they did not dissolve.
If it is carbon from fires it could be carbon from wildfires which are part of the life cycle of vegetation. Scrub and forest regenerate that way according to the text books. If that is the case dry periods will have indications in the soils, I presume.
Very little permanent settlement is likely in permafrost regions.
Mostly temporary hunting sites following the animal and bird movements.
The ground is frozen beneath a superficial thaw in real permafrost I was told . I do not know how it can be thawed by warmer atmosphere, but I am no soil expert
It’s good you’re not holding your breath, Paul. Hell will freeze over before these climate propagandists admit the truth!
They wrote: With the Arctic now warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world, the region is seeing more precipitation and the permafrost is thawing, leading to stronger river flows.
I write: Almost as much as a thousand years ago in the Medieval Warm Period, almost as much as two thousand years ago in the Roman Warm Period. Not near as much during most of the recent ten thousand years.
They wrote: As the Arctic warms, its mighty rivers are changing in ways that could have vast consequences – not only for the Arctic region but for the world.
I write: As in the past, the Arctic did warm, there were changes that led to more evaporation, snowfall, sequestering of ice that had the more ice advancing and causing the following natural colder period. They are observing for the first time, natural, self-correcting changes that have occurred many times in history. If they had studied ice core records, honestly, they would more likely have written that climate history is just repeating, one more time, a next climate cycle that is much like past climate cycles.
Although not related to this topic, I was saddened to read in the Conversation with regard to the loss of the Malaysian aircraft over the Indian Ocean that they quoted the loss of the Yemeni aircraft, that was flying a scheduled international service, from Sanan’a in Yemen to Moroni in Comoros, when it crashed on 30 June 2009 while on approach to Prince Said Ibrahim airport, as being comparable. In fact there is no comparison whatsoever, since the Yemeni aircraft was on approach to its destination airport. The paper was co-written by four University graduates, one a vice-dean, all of whom simply failed to check the facts. Disgusting.
We are in an interglacial, a gentle warming, nothing controversial
They wrote that if the ocean circulation shuts down it could lead to disaster. When there is energy from the sun heating tropical oceans and when there is ice pushed into and chilling polar oceans the circulation cannot shut down. Chilled water is going to flow toward the tropics and the warmed water is going to flow toward polar regions. This is natural convection.
Warming 4 times more than very little is not enough to worry their tiny minds about.
It’s in a race with Bangladesh:
Its water temperature is rising at an alarming rate – 4 to 5 times faster than the world’s oceans.
Everywhere on earth is warming 4 times faster than anywhere else on earth.
Soon to be 7 times faster.
Yes and most of the world’s coral reefs in the northern hemisphere bleached during the summer months. The GBR is bleaching now during its summer
Canada, Alaska, and Siberia may become habitable – what a tragedy!
The Arctic has been warmer than now for nearly ALL the last 10,000 years.
The planet is still here. !!
Humans thrived
In my mind’s eye I can see employees of the Met Office and BBC chortling away to themselves during meetings, as they compete to see who can come up with the latest and most ludicrous forecast / headline.
They’ve lost all credibility.
You won’t get published in ‘The Conversation’ if you don’t peddle climate doom. They abandoned having an actual conversation about all aspects of ‘climate change’ (including that it might not be a problem at all) years ago.
Climate change deniers are dangerous – they don’t deserve a place on our site (theconversation.com)
When the Arctic was warmer than now:
October 7, 1998 – Ancient Clues from a Frozen Forest
https://www.gi.alaska.edu/alaska-science-forum/ancient-clues-frozen-forest-0
Troy L. Péwé once discovered an interesting patch of woods near Ester, about
nine miles east of Fairbanks. The spruce and birch trees of this forest were
underground, sandwiched between layers of earth. Each tree was 125,000 years
old.
Péwé said the frozen forest at Eva Creek thrived at a time that was up to 5 degrees Celsius warmer than it is today, when there was little-to-no permafrost.
Because the frozen forest is full of charred trees, Péwé suspects there were a
lot of forest fires 125,000 years ago. Insect galleries carved into the bark of
some of the frozen spruce indicate that the spruce bark beetle was also here
then.
What preserved the Eva Creek frozen forest? During a cooling period, about
120,000 years ago, the Eva Creek trees died and were eventually covered with
loess from dust storms that began on the Tanana Flats.
What can we learn from the Eva Creek frozen forest and other sites like it? Péwé said that because the last period between ice ages was warmer than today, we may be able to predict the future by looking at the past.
The Conversation? Next!
Paul, here’s a model from 1991 based on what must be entirely different physics used today by the climate cult, in it they show that the planet can warm up to 8 C more and still increase the ice mass balance in Antarctica due to this warming causing precipitation that then freezes onto the ice.
Predicts a decrease in sea level from warming!
I bet this paper is based on real physics than whatever the garbage printed these days is based on.
I will also add a 2024 Berkeley earth file that clearly shows the planets average temp for the period 1950-1981 , here’s a cut from it.
“The land analysis was run on 07-Feb-2024 05:19:02
The ocean analysis was published on 20-Feb-2024 08:20:00
The land component is based on 50709 time series
with 21378860 monthly data points
The ocean component is based on 469866882 instantaneous
water temperature observations
Estimated Jan 1951-Dec 1980 global mean temperature (C)
Using air temperature above sea ice: 14.104 +/- 0.022
Using water temperature below sea ice: 14.699 +/- 0.022″
We can move then to “Temperature Global” and compare
The Earth’s Temperature
Currently: 57.98°F/14.43°C
Deviation: 0.78°F/0.43°C
Stations processed last hour: 46324
Last station processed: Mangalore, India
Update time: 2024-03-10 18:01:13 UTC
Mmmmmmm
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/1461/1/Huy1990c.pdf
https://berkeley-earth-temperature.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/Global/Land_and_Ocean_summary.txt?fbclid=IwAR27dcy1YstgAZHtHeNm7UOEp3aBuTzKjynoUMMVLLDJyiVKItxNCur32s8