The heat pumps scandal has gone on for too long. End subsidies now
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness/Paul Kolk
Anyone for free money? Yes, as the Prime Minister discovered when he was offering to pay for our pub lunch under the Eat Out to Help Out scheme. But his marketing genius seems to have deserted him when it comes to the seemingly more generous offer of thousands of pounds for a heat pump.
Even with an increase in the grant from £5,000 to £7,500 per installation, the Boiler Upgrade Scheme has failed to capture the imagination of the British public. In the first two years of the scheme only £127 million out of a possible £300 million of grants have been taken up. Between May 2022, when the subsidies were introduced, and December last year just 18,900 heat pumps were installed – compared with 1.5 million new gas boilers.
And no, it isn’t because the gas boiler industry has poisoned our minds with anti-heat pump propaganda, as the green lobby would have it. Rather it comes down to basic economics. A £7,500 grant doesn’t seem such a good deal when it comes in the form of a discount on something which remains fantastically expensive even after the grant is taken into account.
The justification for subsidising heat pumps was supposed to be that it would allow the industry to reach a larger scale and thus bring down costs. But that doesn’t seem to be happening. I first obtained a quote for a heat pump for my home in 2010, when it was going to cost £10,000. True, some things come down in price when they move from being a niche product to a mass market one, but it is foolish to assume that all new technologies will go this way.
Moreover, with heat pumps there is the added problem of their questionable effectiveness in older properties. Some people seem to like them, while others have splashed out many thousands still find themselves shivering in a lukewarm home.
So what exactly is the incentive for homeowners to rip out a gas boiler and replace it with a heat pump? One of the reasons you might do it is that you are concerned about climate change and want to make your own personal gesture. Is that what taxpayers are subsidising: middle class guilt? Paying £7,500 a time to help quite well off people feel better about themselves.
At least Rishi Sunak’s subsidised pub lunches ended after a month. At some point he and his colleagues are going to have to ask themselves: how much longer are we prepared to sink public money into propping up an industry whose products show little sign of being able to achieve mass appeal on their own merits?
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
As one commenter on the article correctly puts it “If heat pumps and electric cars are so brilliant they would need no subsidies or bans on the alternatives.”
Avoch, not just that, but the Coonsils and other public bodies would / SHOULD be making use of it all, ALL the time for absolutely everything ( After all, when it comes to a Logo change , etc. Money & Effort is no problem)
I think we call that ” Money where the Mouth is” …. but heh! there’s the other kind – Money supping at the Gravy Train.
I have noticed the margin on EVs is getting biggerer.
A TV show had a review of the Kia E9. They said it compared with their Telluride. A quick check showed a $15k difference in base MSRP. 8 years ago, the difference between similar ICE and EV cars was $6k.
The idea that economies of scale could work is just silly. There are MILLIONS of heat pumps already.
The nitwits in charge seem unaware that the technology is that used in refrigeration for about a century, and heat pumps are commonly known as air-conditioning units – which can work in reverse or both directions.
I think millions is a very low underestimation, hundreds of millions maybe billions. The scale of production was achieved decades ago and they won’t be getting cheaper.
I wonder how many people have managed to get a £7,500 subsidy for some aircon while leaving their normal heating in place.
Lets face facts, if heat pumps ever achieve, say a 25% market penetration then there will be insufficient, particularly on a winters evening, generation and distribution capacity. So your smart meter ups the price to limit demand.
Today the daily electricity usage of an average house is 8kWh per day (the OFGEM Cap is based on this), your 5kW heat pump plus the 3kW immersion heater (to heat the domestic hot water ) are going to exceed this in less than 2 hours, then the BEV needs charging, but your super duper V2G charger decides to suck what remaining charge is in the battery to run the heat pump as it is cheaper!
As I have written before, the concept of demand limitation by pricing, will encourage anarchy, meter tampering and inevitably the sub station will trip out, then the real riots and looting will start
Affordable, reliable electricity is essential to life, yet the idiots at OFGEM go along with all the green crap,rather than do what they were set up for “Protecting the customer from price gouging from the suppliers.”
Jonathan Brearley, the CEO has been a disaster, a co writer of the climate change act should not be running OFGEM.
The problem with subsidies is that the manufacturers price them in. The price of solar panels halved when the original generous FIT scheme ended in 2012.
It applies even to the small stuff. There was a big self congratulatory pat on the back when VAT was removed from ebooks, but if any book dropped even a penny in price on Amazon, I can’t say I noticed.
Can I buy a heatpump from screwfix at the subsidized price?
No. Until they apply the subsidy to the machine and not to a rip-off ‘installer’ it wont work.
They’re expensive. They have to be sited outside, where they can be stolen, interfered with, weather-damaged etc. They can be noisy. They don’t like cold conditions. They need bigger radiators than gas boilers to be anywhere near effective. And so on.
A gas boiler’s energy efficiency – energy in for energy out – is independent of outside temperature. No matter how much colder and more humid it gets outdoors, the gas boiler’s thermal output remains constant.
The thermal output of Heat pumps – air/water or air/air – is dependent on external air temperature and humidity and will decrease as these increase.
Insulation does not produce heat, it slows heat loss from inside to outside, but if the heat input from a heat pump decreases, insulation will not compensate for that, and as heat input decreases, indoor temperature will fall.
Efficiency is maximum output for minimum input. The claim is heat pumps are three times more efficient. This is disingenuous, intentionally so to mislead.
The important question is: compared to what?
Being three times more energy efficient, does not necessarily mean three times more cost efficient.
Since natural gas prices are lower than electricity prices, gas heating is still more cost efficient than heat pumps.
And a copper hot water storage tank with immersion heater will be required, adding more to overall operating costs, and increase installation costs.
Besides, many people with demand boilers may not have space for hot water storage tanks.
These factors will certainly be influencing the advice installers will be giving and the decision made by consumers considering heat pumps.
Why does heat pump output fall as external temperatures rise?
I wondered that and think it should be “heat pump output falls as external temperature falls”. If there’s less energy in the air, there’s less to ‘capture’, so the output is lower (or uses more electrical input energy to maintain output – if they can do that of course).
Malcolm,
the compressor provides the heat and it’s heat output is dependant on the heat of the refrigerant gas returning from the outside evaporator. This gas temperature varies with ambient air temperature as does the compressed gas temperature from the compressor, i.e. it rises and falls in line with its input gas temperature.
That’s the wrong way round – coefficient of performance falls as the outside temp falls as the HP has to work harder to make the hot side temperature.
Iain Reid PERMALINK
April 16, 2024 7:44 am
Malcolm,
the compressor provides the heat and it’s heat output is dependant on the heat of the refrigerant gas returning from the outside evaporator. This gas temperature varies with ambient air temperature as does the compressed gas temperature from the compressor, i.e. it rises and falls in line with its input gas temperature.
That is wrong – the heat [well most of it] comes from the outside (air or water or ground, depending on type) and is ‘pumped’ up to useful temperature – hence a ‘heat pump’. Some of the heat does come from the compression power input. As the outside temperature falls the low side pressure has to fall to keep the ‘refrigerant’ boiling, and the gap between low and high side pressures increases so the compression power increases, and the coefficient of performance (which is the ratio of power input to useful work output) falls.
That’s just a typo by John, I am certain he knows what he is talking about but simply made an easy error – possibly thinking along the lines of a double negative.
The real kicker for (air source) heat pumps is the defrost cycle. Heat Pumps advertised CoPs of around 3 to 1 are measured at an outside air temperature of 7°C and indoor water temperature of 35°C.
With high humidity (typical of the UK’s maritime climate which is why international comparisons can mislead) the defrost cycles starts coming on just below that cold measurement point. The resultant regular defrosting easily knocks the CoP down to 2 to 1 just on its own. Them temperature drop worsen the situation but not quite as much as the cliff edge effect of essential defrosting.
My government has just given me a free one including installation and it’s a top of the line too!
You do have to ask whether something the govt has to give away (i.e. have the rest of us pay for it) is any good. If it was good and beneficial, we would surely buy it ourselves.
Sure, it’s taxpayers money but the offer is there so…And as I said, its not a cheapy, top of the line. The air conditioning will certainly be beneficial in the lovely Canadian summers.
Thankfully you get to give the government free money to pay for it.
Beware Greeks bearing gifts!
This is clearly too controversial for the print edition.
Eat pumps, smart meters, EV’s, solar panels, wind turbines, battery storage, biomass, climate change , all phoney thinking. Time to wake up and smell the coffee. If society doesn’t, then we are heading back into the dark ages or even earlier!
The elites are trying to kill the middle-class by forcing them to spend their money on heat pumps, smart meters, EV’s, solar panels, wind turbines, battery storage, biomass, climate change.
It is dekulakization.
So when it’s time to replace my gas boiler, which has worked extremely well, with not problems at all for years, I can either buy a new gas boiler that promises to be even better than the great one I’ve had, or a thing whose only advantage is that it has lower CO2 emissions.
Pretty sure heat pumps are showing how much people actually care about CO2.
Phoenix,
even that is debatable.
An increase in grid demand cause an increase in CO2 emissions from generation. This was particularly noticeable during the Covid lockdown.
I also think that a modern gas boiler is more efficient overall than an air source heat pump. (Don’t look at the electrical input used but the fuel used to make that electricity at source, i.e.. real efficiency)
If I may – still topical, I hope:
https://cliscep.com/2024/01/28/piddling-in-the-wind/
And CO2 doesn’t control the weather, let’s not forget
I was lucky enough to be involved in the 1970’s mass expansion of gas powered central heating- the prospect of having each room warm without using one,two or three bar electric “fires”, open coal fires etc was just too appealing and sales of gas boilers, fires, radiators etc was such that qualified heating engineers had order books stretching away into the far ends of the following year, I recall delivering a full house pack (boiler, radiators, pipe, fittings etc) to one customers clients home at 2200hrs on Xmas eve 1973, while a party was in full flow to allow the contractor to start Boxing Day. At no point did anyone say, rip out that horrible open fire and replace with a clean gas system that will heat the whole house, supply hot water and by the way here’s a chunk of tax payers money – these people knew that the gas boiler was worth the investment despite the disruption and inevitable redecoration that “senior management” would insist was required.
Fast forward to 2024, and despite coercion, threats, people are hesitant to move onto the next technology product- why, because it is not as efficient and has to be promoted via force, anything worthwhile sells itself, rubbish struggles.
I have said it before, and I will say it again- my neighbour and I live in near identical 1930 brick semi’s, both with insulated cavity walls, between 200 & 250mm roof insulation and standard clay tiled roofs, all windows double glazed. So all things being equal, same number of adults (2), same number of children (0), rooms etc., we are an ideal candidate for the Great Heat Pump experiment- one of the houses to be fitted with a brand spanking new Heat Pump system, the other to have the existing Combi boiler system replaced, then the costs can be set at whatever both systems cost to install less any tax payer chunks to get to a start point. The systems can now be run as normal for twelve months, at the end we have a true cost of running, each property to have its room temperature set and fixed, ditto hot water, no cheating allowed, and too make things fair, each household to report daily on their experience with regards to warmth, hot water availability etc. At the end of twelve months sufficient real data will have been gathered and the true cost both financially and in terms of real lived experience can be gathered- this will show whether or not the traditional or Heat Pump is honestly better and put too bed the “fog” of uncertainty.
It’s a mistake to think that heat pumps are new technology and should get much cheaper with an increase in volume of manufacture. It is refrigeration plant and as such is unlikely to improve in cost benefit terms, if anything they will likely increase in price due to just about everything involved in their manufacture and installation going up in price.
The Government knows that heat pumps are expensive to run, give poor performance – particularly when the weather is cold- noisy and being outdoors, are easily stolen. I also wonder how the Government expects the elderly and infirm to wipe the snow off the units when required.
The Government’s next step is to load the costs of renewable electricity onto gas prices to equalise the costs of running heat pumps and gas boilers. This is laid out in Chris Skidmore’s Mission Zero and elsewhere.
They have to transition us to electric heating (and evs) as rolling blackouts using smart meters is the ony way to achieve demand matching supply when most of our energy comes from renewables and they want to stop a total collapse of the grid to ensure they always get their supply.
Why isn’t the government converting all its properties to heat pumps? How about number 10 and the Houses of Parliament? All the barracks?
I can hear the excuses now!!!