Sahel Monsoon Rains
April 19, 2024
By Paul Homewood
Further to the post on the Sahel drought, HH Lamb included this graph in Climate Present, Past and Future:
It is a powerful reminder of the effect of global cooling on monsoon rains.
Scientists have known about these climatic shifts for many years.
Ghana’s Lake Bosumtwi, for instance, now has the remains of submerged trees standing in 20m of water. They grew there during the Little Ice Age, when rainfall was much less.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16967-africa-trapped-in-mega-drought-cycle/
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
The Sahel-Sahara boundary isn’t fixed. It has been shifting for millennia, not just the last 70 years.
It’s not ‘climatic shift.’ That’s why I say no climate on earth has changed in a hundred years, and don’t call the Sahel an exception. Perpetual shifting is not climate change (whatever that means).
Off topic, Mr Homewood et al, but what is going on with wholesale electricity pricing? Kate says £32/ MWh for the last week. Week, not days. Last I looked it was nearer £100.
https://grid.iamkate.com
The average last week is influenced by extended periods of surplus wind at times of low demand. That has been aggravated because Moray East and Hornsea 2 wind farms finally activated their CFDs just before the end of March. That means that instead of volunteering to curtail when prices are low they keep producing unless bribed to curtail, which puts more pressure on prices.
The general level of prices has been driven lower by low gas prices, down to 60p/therm or £20/MWh, giving electricity at £40-50/MWh. That is below the post April 1 indexed CFD strike prices for Moray East (£77.67/MWh) and Hornsea 2 (79.43/MWh) , encouraging them to activate their CFDs.
Gas prices have rebounded a bit on the Middle East uncertainties, but are still way below crisis levels. So long as there aren’t any real supply shocks they will probably ease back into summer perhaps picking up again in late summer if supply looks tight over winter.
The wind surpluses led to this little game for grid batteries:
https://timera-energy.com/blog/negative-prices-and-high-bm-acceptance-drive-bess-revenues-across-the-weekend/
Charge up at negative prices, and demand to be paid not to discharge into an oversupplied market. Reminds me of the joke about he IRA terrorist at the Pearly Gates being told by St Peter “You can’t come in here,” “I know,” says Mick. “You’ve 10 seconds to get out.”
With all due respect to Kate Morley, she is not an electricity industry professional by any means.
https://iamkate.com/
Whilst her graphics are interesting, I would take some of the figures she is displaying as her potential misinterpretation of the basic data.
Balancing Mechanism prices
https://bmrs.elexon.co.uk/system-prices
Day ahead prices (the largest chunk of electricity sales)
https://bmrs.elexon.co.uk/market-index-prices
Note you can change the date/time range displayed and also download the data for further analysis.
IDAU: thanks for the fascinating link. The dealing looks more like poker than trading a commodity. Derivatives trading looks a bit like this too: quick money for clever players but no simple relationship to the producer or user.