Nonstop Rain In 2034, Say Weather Attribution Models

By Paul Homewood

 

 

h/t Patsy Lacey

These weather attribution scamsters are now just making it up as they go along:

 

 

 

It’s November 2034 and it has been raining for a week straight. The downpours are heavier than Britain has ever known, and a supercell storm is tearing up the southwest. The river banks have flooded across the Pennines again and the River Thames is seeping onto the pavements and into homes across the capital. The following month, there is no respite from the storms. The heavy, monsoon-like rain continues.

This is the future of UK weather, according to a new study by the World Weather Attribution group. Every five years, the UK will experience extreme rainfall that is 20 per cent wetter than we are used to. One scientist in the study, Dr Mark McCarthy, called these future downpours “neve-rending”.

Bill McGuire, a professor of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at University College London (UCL) and author of Hothouse Earth: An Inhabitant’s Guide, believes that persistent heavy rains will be “the signature precipitation of the winter” of the future.

Prof McGuire said: “In particular, there will be an increase in so-called ‘atmospheric river’ conditions, whereby heavy rain will continue non-stop for days over the same areas.”

For those who might have hoped that global warming would create a hotter Britain – it might seem unintuitive (and perhaps frustrating) that a hotter climate will also mean a wetter one.

“Warmer air can hold more water in the form of vapour, which feeds into increased precipitation,” McGuire explains. Last year, the global average temperature rose around 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial times, and it is only set to worsen: “For every one-degree rise in global temperature, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by 7 per cent,” he adds.

Our future wet weather won’t just be seasonal, although our summers will still be drier on average than they are now. “In summer, shorter-lived torrential rainfall and hail are more likely, associated with convective storms [severe local storms] that develop when temperatures are high,” says McGuire.

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/constant-rain-2034-climate-scientist-3073979

Even under his own theory, the claim is balderdash. He says that a 1C temperature rise means the water holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by 7%. Therefore in the last 20 years, that would imply a rise in rainfall of about 3% – over an average winter, this accounts for an extra 7mm, an amount which would not even be noticed.

But we don’t need his weather attribution models, do we, because we have actual real world data.

Let’s take Oxford, for instance, as McGuire has specifically mentioned Thames floods. According to ECA&D, there has been very little trend in winter-half rainfall since 1900. The slight rise is entirely due to fewer unusually dry winters.

Although 2013/14 stands out, there has been nothing exceptional about any other winter in the last couple of decades. The database only runs to 2020, and it is certainly true that we have just had a freak winter with 590mm of rain between October and March at Oxford. But one winter is not climate.

If McGuire’s theory was correct, we would surely have seen definite evidence of winters becoming wetter throughout the period since 1900, during which we have supposedly had 1.5C of warming.

https://www.ecad.eu/indicesextremes/index.php

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We can look at other indicators too. There is no upward trend, for instance, in the number of raindays.

And the average rainfall/rainday shows no upward trend either:

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And there is no evidence either that winter rainfall is becoming more extreme:

 

 

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In short, the actual data completely contradicts McGuire’s computer modelling.

Finally, let’s take a quick look at summer. This is what McGuire claims:

“In summer, shorter-lived torrential rainfall and hail are more likely, associated with convective storms [severe local storms] that develop when temperatures are high,”

But again the data since 1900 totally contradicts this:

Sadly we live in a world where computer models seem to carry more weight than actual data.