UK set for ’50 days of rain’ in one of the wettest summers in over a hundred years (Or maybe driest!)
By Paul Homewood
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h/t Mike Rennoldson
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It’s the turn of the Leftwing Broadcasting Company to make a fool of itself:
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Forecasters are predicting a summer of persistent rain and wet weather for Brits, as global warming continues to result in more erratic conditions.
The Met Office has briefed the Government and transport chiefs to prepare for at least 50 days of rain in the next three months, leading to fears over further flooding in the UK and dashing any hopes of a warm British summer.
Last summer saw 40 days of rain, but the Met Office expects this summer to be even worse, jeopardising popular summer events such as Wimbledon, Trooping of the Colour, Royal Ascot and many festivals including Glastonbury.
To count as a rainy day, there must be a minimum of 2.5mm of rain in a 24 hour period.
The UK’s wettest ever summer in 1912 saw rainfall on more than 55 days.
Maybe the Met Office’s right hand should have checked what its left hand was saying!
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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners/index
THE CHANCES OF A WET OR DRY SUMMER ARE FAIRLY BALANCED!
No doubt whether it’s wet, dry or average, they’ll blame it on global warming.
Meanwhile the media continues to shed whatever credibility it has left by publicising these daft claims, without bothering to do any factchecking of their own.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
“The UK’s wettest ever summer in 1912 saw rainfall on more than 55 days.”
Er, how could this have happened prior to another 112 years of catastrophic CO2 emissions from bastards driving 4-wheel drive ICE vehicles and flying off to the Maldives and similar?
It was al the horsepoop
Neither MET “Scientists” nor gormless journalists are EVER held to account, so they can come out with the stupidest nonsense they can dream up, with no anxiety.
Not like us naughty “Deniers”!
1911 was apparently disastrously hot. Weather! What can you do?
I wouldnt be surprised to see wetter weather around the world for a few years.
Hunga Tonga blasted billions of tons of water into the stratosphere. Putting perhaps 30% more water into the atmosphere than its natural balance.
What goes up, must ………..
Quite right, Bobn. Any time I get some CC idiot tell me the wet weather is down to climate change I just say, ‘Hunga Tonga’ and wait to see if they’ve heard the name. Odds on, they haven’t a clue.
I am surprised that both you and Harry fell for this outright propaganda.
An estimated 0.7 cubic kilometres of water reached the stratosphere, which is almost devoid of water vapour so increased the amount by an estimated 10%. But the troposphere is estimated to contain some 60,000 cubic kilometres, so what eventually returns will literally be a drop in the ocean.
It is not as if they can get the weather forecast correct the day before.
Remember this from our Met Office only 3 years ago:
https://x.com/metoffice/status/1446437720709124103
Here’s betting the UK in 2024 won’t enjoy a “🌡️Hotter & drier summer”
Joe,
It is possible – maybe not ‘likely’ – that the watermelons at Met. Office could be right by chance.
Sometimes, I wonder if they employ chimps with a dart board for the predictions – but sometimes the chimps are given access to good barrel of scrumpy, and, then, the wordsmiths excel themselves with their use of ‘unprecedented in my [23 year] lifetime’ and similar fear-mongering!
Auto
Better go look for something smaller then ( at the Dartboard ) ( Have forgotten his name ….but he has probably got more experience despite his years. … Determination and an interest in the job. unlike our politicos
Can we have some of your water here is spain please. ‘Tis the worst drought for a century and only the excellent hydro emergency provision put in place by Iberdrola together with the ingenbuity of the Moors via their historic irrigation systems has prevented water rationing. However, if we don’t get rain by October, rationing there will be.
You can have some of ours in SW France! Hasn’t stopped raining since November.
Burgundy’s not much better. Our local river (a tributary of the Saone) was making full use of its flood plain last month! Not quite the first time in living memory, I’m told, but close!
I’m with bobn and have made the point before: if you throw several hundred thousand gallons of H2O into the stratosphere sooner or later several hundred thousand gallons are going to come back down again.
Sorry if it doesn’t fit the “narrative”!
Just got back from Ainsa, Sobrarbe, Huesca, this time last year the reservoirs were empty, now they are brimming, at least 90 feet higher than a year ago, in fact the reservoir was backed up into Ainsa, Embalse de Mediano and the lower reservoir Embalse de El Grado are both at maximum levels, so not all of Spain is lacking water.
I am getting more than a little tired of the abuse of ‘statistical’ ideas peddled by the media and some ‘scientists’. The idea of defined probability as defined by Gauss and others in the 19th century only applies to closed, linear systems of variables. Take a pack of 52 playing cards. We can easily define the probability of occurence of an individual card as the pack is a closed set. However, if due to unknown mechanism (or a card sharp…) there is ocassionally 48 or 54 cards or some other number; that defined probability no longer applies. This also applies to Galton’s ‘quincux’ a linear array of pins on a board through which balls are dropped to form a ‘normal’ distribution. If, due to some unknown mechanisms, the size and spacing of the pins varies, then the distribution formed is no longer ‘normal’ but skewed. Few distributions in nature are so distributed in linear form, as Paul and Lamb have tried to make clear. When Einstein said to Niels Bohr, “God does not play dice!” he knew eaxctly that he meant, although it is clear from his reply, that Bohr did not!
Exactly. We are rolling dice but we have no idea how many sides each dice has nor what numbers are on each face.
I don’t remember 40 days of rain last summer. We had drought conditions with a hose-pipe ban till well into autumn.
That was the dry winter. Summer 2023 was actually wetter than average.
I have the UK Official Climate Change Projections from 2009 from the then Secretary of State Hilary Benn:
Summer Temp (SE England)
+1.6 degC above 1961-1990 from 2020 and +2.3 from 2040
Summer precip (SW England)
-7% [-26,+14] during 2020s, rising to -13% [-35, +11] in 2040s
Winter Precip (NW England)
+6% [-1, +14] during 2020s, rising to +10% [+3, +35] in 2040s
Sea level rise London
+18cm by 2040 (which from 2009 is +5.8 mm per year!)
So now London sea level should be 87 mm above the 2009 figure….
How are those projections working out?
About 20 years ago the National Trust said that global warming would give England a Mediterranean climate and advised gardeners to dig up their herbaceous borders and put in plants more suited to the Med. Wonder if anybody was stupid enough to do so?
The National Trust, that highly commended scientific research outfit, I think not!
At about 30 years ago, John Gummer (now Lord Deben, with his fingers in many ‘green’ industries) predicted that by now there would be olive groves across the north of England….
The only things I cannot grow in mid-France are runner beans. Summer-fruiting raspberries are a bit iffy but all the other ‘standard’ vegetables and fruit are fine though rhubarb needs a bit of cosseting.
Most of the flower garden is the same as it would be in the UK with a couple if additions that don’t need extra protection in the winter.
I regularly compare notes with a local gardener who claims to have been growing the same things (and often the same cultivars) for over half-a-century. His reaction to climate change? “Can’t say I’ve noticed”.
The Met Office doesn’t seem to have a clue about UK weather. It is rarely “average” – in most years, for most metrics, it is either above or below average. There is no cluster around a mean. It might make sense to talk about being within the distribution but around the average is just meaningless – I’d bet a fair bit on most years being above or below the average.
This reminds me of an American imported humorous radio programme called “Lake Wobegone” where the presenter assured us that all the children in the local school were “above average”.
Why no mention of the after effects of The Hungar Tonga eruption?
The Met Office UK climate projections are for warmer drier UK summers. They use the same circulation models that the IPCC use, where rising CO2 forcing drives increasingly positive North Atlantic Oscillation conditions. UK summer rainfall happens with negative NAO conditions, so if they blame Goebbels Warming for a wet summer, you know that they are lying.
https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html
The Met Office’s long-range forecast for 13th to 27th June contains these gems: ‘There is no strong signal for either dry or wet conditions’; ‘there is a chance that longer-lived drier or even wetter spells are possible’; and ‘the chances of high or low pressure dominating are fairly balanced’,
In other words, we could replace the MO’s multi-million pound computer and over 2,000 staff with a 1p coin that we just toss occasionally? The 1p coin forecast would be just as accurate.