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Extra warm U.S. winter had nature’s thumbprint on it–Joe Bastardi

April 3, 2020

By Paul Homewood

   

Joe Bastardi explains why this winter has been so mild in the US, but also across N Europe, at CFACT:

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I want you to read this article:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/warm-winter-sets-records-across-america/2916581001/

Two points:

1) I will make the case for why such winters like this happen

2) I will point out that nowhere in this article did the massive natural physical drivers that far outweigh the effect of CO2, which is only .041% of the atmosphere. Pointedly, of which man is only responsible for  25% and the US only 15% of that total.

I am not going to waste time attacking here, except to say this kind of one-sided journalism and the fact that nowhere did anyone show what I am about to reveal to you, should raise questions of any objective person.

Basically the rules of the game are, if its warm like this winter, its climate change, if it is cold, its climate change. It is typical of everyone gets a trophy in that any answer even if opposite, means you get credit.

I won’t copy the whole article as it is a bit technical, but it can be seen here. However these are the main points Joe raises, starting with the role of El Nino and water vapour:

Read more…

Extra warm U.S. winter had nature’s thumbprint on it–Joe Bastardi

April 3, 2020

By Paul Homewood

   

Joe Bastardi explains why this winter has been so mild in the US, but also across N Europe, at CFACT:

 image

I want you to read this article:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/warm-winter-sets-records-across-america/2916581001/

Two points:

1) I will make the case for why such winters like this happen

2) I will point out that nowhere in this article did the massive natural physical drivers that far outweigh the effect of CO2, which is only .041% of the atmosphere. Pointedly, of which man is only responsible for  25% and the US only 15% of that total.

I am not going to waste time attacking here, except to say this kind of one-sided journalism and the fact that nowhere did anyone show what I am about to reveal to you, should raise questions of any objective person.

Basically the rules of the game are, if its warm like this winter, its climate change, if it is cold, its climate change. It is typical of everyone gets a trophy in that any answer even if opposite, means you get credit.

I won’t copy the whole article as it is a bit technical, but it can be seen here. However these are the main points Joe raises, starting with the role of El Nino and water vapour:

Read more…

Puff Piece For Tesla Ignores The Real Truth

April 2, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

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Elon Musk owned Tesla installed a battery farm in South Australia in 2017 and has since helped residents save $116 million in energy costs, Bloomberg reports.

The company installed the world’s biggest lithium-ion batter to help reduce the risk of blackouts as the country moved to renewable power generation.

Operating via the Hornsdale Power Reserve, it has helped to restore stability to the network and lower the costs of running the power grid, according to reports.

Read more…

Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data

April 2, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

 

Global warming theory states that a warmer climate should lead to increasing water vapour in the atmosphere, and thus to more floods and droughts.

The actual data however does not agree.

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According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for each degree of global warming, the amount of water vapour in the air should increase by about 6-7%. As with so many things the IPCC talks about, this small change is supposed to lead to calamity. That’s because increasing water vapour is supposed to lead to “intensification of the hydrological cycle”, in other words floods and droughts.

Demetris Koutsoyiannis, a hydrologist at the National Technical University of Athens, has taken it upon himself to undertake a major review of the scientific data to see what evidence there is for this actually happening in practice. His findings, currently up for open peer review at the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,[i] make for uncomfortable reading for the IPCC and its fellow-travellers on the bandwagon of doom.

It seems, for example, that although relative humidity is supposed to stay constant under global warming, it is actually falling. Dew points are supposed to be increasing, but mostly they are not; in particular there appears to be little or no change in equatorial regions, where the largest share of evaporation of water from the oceans takes place. If we’re not seeing change there, then increased flooding is off the agenda.

And Koutsoyiannis finds that the amount of water vapour in the air is increasing at roughly one third of the IPCC’s predicted rate. If the rate of water vapour increase really is so low, then by the time we hit the (in)famous two-degree target for global warming, we’ll still only have experienced a 4% increase, which as Koutsoyiannis points out is negligible given the normal variability of hydrological cycles. Where are the deluges and floods going to come from?

It doesn’t end there either. There are lots of other ways in which intensification of the hydrological cycle might show up. You can measure the amount of water vapour in columns of the atmosphere. That should be increasing with global warming too, right? Koutsoyiannis finds no trend. Average rainfall across the planet should increase too – the IPCC says by 1-3% per degree of global warming. The problem with this claim is that it’s within the “noise” of normal variability anyway; no surprise then that Koutsoyiannis sees no meaningful trends in the data. The limited data on evaporation are telling the same story (or lack of one) too.

What about extremes of rainfall? Koutsoyannis reviews a variety of measures: changes in daily maxima, days with rainfall over a threshold and so on, he looks on land and he looks at sea. And he draws a blank everywhere.

As well as being an eminent scientist, Koutosoyiannis also has a deep interest in the scientific knowledge and practice of the ancient world, and this has coloured his view of the climate scare. As he says in his conclusions, the small changes that are exciting climate scientists today would not even have been discussed by ancient engineers, who would have seen them as just noise in the ever-changing patterns of hydrological cycles. Similarly, he points out that such small changes are of no interest to those making practical decisions about flood protection and water storage. And he wonders whether, with the data refuting the climatologists’ predictions so clearly, it isn’t time that hydrologists shifted their attention away from prophecies of doom, and back onto making a real contribution to people’s lives.

You can see his point.

https://www.thegwpf.com/bandwagon-of-doom-washed-away-by-tidal-wave-of-data/

Nightingales at risk due to shorter wings caused by climate crisis

April 2, 2020
tags:

By Paul Homewood

No, it was not an April Fools story after all!

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The nightingale was feted by John Keats as a “light-winged Dryad of the trees”. But the much-celebrated small bird with a beautiful song may be increasingly endangered because its wings are getting shorter.

Read more…

Climate Crisis RIP

April 2, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

Well worth reading Pierre Gosselin’s opinion piece on how COVID-19 has put the climate scare into perspective:

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https://notrickszone.com/2020/04/01/climate-crisis-rip-people-will-be-in-no-mood-to-stay-in-panic-mode-after-covid-19-scare-ends/

All-Electric Tornadoes Now A Reality

April 1, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

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The RAF have been secretly developing all-electric Tornadoes for the last two years. The big problem, as with electric cars, has been the limited range, but this has now seemingly been overcome.

An eagle eyed observer has taken this picture of a KFC135 loaded with 3,756 Tesla Powerwall batteries over RAF Marham carrying out the first In-the-Air recharge mission via specially-designed USB cables.

Announcing the successful trial, Air Commodore A M P Watt reported only one problem. Sometimes the Tornadoes had to fly upside down to plug the USBs in.

Government’s decarbonising transport plan: a good time to bury bad news?

March 31, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t AC Osborn

 

 

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The Department for Transport (DfT) has launched a consultation paper on the future of UK transport, which calls for a major shift out of cars into cycling, walking and buses, and "using cars differently in future", but hasn’t told anyone about it.

Read more…

Japan Refuse To Increase Emissions Cuts

March 30, 2020
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood

 

 

If you thought Russia’s contribution to saving the planet was disappointing, Japan’s is no better!

 

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Japan has been criticised for failing to increase its ambition to tackle climate change, as it becomes the first major economy to submit updated plans on cutting emissions.

All countries are expected to submit new or updated plans this year for cutting emissions, known as “nationally determined contributions”, under the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Existing efforts set out by countries to curb greenhouse gases are not enough to limit global temperature rises to well below 2C or the tighter restriction of 1.5C, which nations signed up to under the Paris deal.

Japan has become the first country in the G7 group of leading economies to produce updated plans, ahead of a key United Nations climate meeting “Cop26”, which is supposed to take place in Glasgow in November.

The UK is hoping to drive moves towards ambitious international action in the build-up to the talks, though British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has warned the meeting may have to be delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak.

But Japan has stuck with its existing target of cutting emissions by 26% on 2013 levels by 2030, which analysts tracking contributions at independent organisation Climate Action Tracker has deemed “highly insufficient”.

Japan says it will pursue further efforts in the medium and long term, and is aiming for a “decarbonised society” as early as possible in the second half of the century.

A UK Government spokeswoman said: “We are clear on the need for increased ambition from all countries, particularly from G7 partners.

“We hope to see a further submission that includes an increase in Japan’s headline target ahead of Cop26.”

Laurance Tubiana, chief executive of the European Climate Foundation and one of the key architects of the Paris Agreement, said it was “disappointing” the Japanese government has not increased its ambition in response to the climate crisis.

“The EU, UK, China and South Korea are moving towards a new – low carbon – economy. If Japan doesn’t move, it will lose out in the high-tech race of this century.

“At one of the most challenging times of recent memory, we need bolder, mutually reinforcing plans that protect our societies from the global risks we all face.

“But there is still time: Japan should reconsider its position and come to Cop26 with a more ambitious plan. This will also allow a resilient recovery from the negative economic impact of Covid-19,” she urged.

Christian Aid’s global climate lead, Dr Kat Kramer, said: “Japan’s feeble and unchanged national climate commitment is an international disgrace.

“The fact they are smuggling it out during a global pandemic when it will avoid the scrutiny it deserves is shameful.”

Japan is a rich country with resources and the historic responsibility to make big strides to decarbonise its economy, she said.

“Yet it has utterly failed to enhance its highly insufficient pledge, that will only compound the misery of people on the front line of the climate crisis who need countries like Japan to act with urgency to do its fair share in addressing the climate crisis.”

She also criticised the country’s failure to plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050, and relying on unproven technologies to get there.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/japan-criticised-for-highly-insufficient-climate-plans-990950.html

 

 

In case you think that a cut of 26% between 2013 and 2030 is a lot, bear in mind emissions in 2013 were already 20% higher than in 1990.

The promised cut by 2030 is in fact only a reduction of 10% from 1990 levels;

 

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http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html

 

Japan’s emissions are approximately triple the UK’s.

Russia’s New Low Carbon Plan–Increase Emissions by 30%!

March 30, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

Five years ago, we began to see the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, or INDCs, which detailed each country’s plan for reducing (or otherwise!) their greenhouse emissions.

These plans covered the period up to 2030, and were part and parcel of the Paris Agreement.

Coronavirus permitting, nations are supposed to be updating these plans this year, ready for COP26 in Glasgow this November.

As my analysis showed in 2015, most INDCs actually planned for increases in GHGs and not reductions.

I doubt whether we will see much change this time, certainly not if Russia’s provisional plan is anything to go by:

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Fossil fuel-rich Russia has for the first time set out a greener economic path for the coming three decades, in a long-term, low-carbon development plan released this week.

It pledges to cut planet-warming emissions by a third by 2030 from 1990 levels, when the heavily industrial Soviet Union collapsed, although that represents an increase in Russia’s greenhouse gas pollution from today.

Climate experts said the strategy and 2030 target were not ambitious enough but did signal growing political and business interest in tackling climate change in an economy that is one of the world’s biggest suppliers of oil, gas and coal.

Under the plan, Russia would not become carbon-neutral until late this century — and only if it implements the cleanest growth scenario outlined.

Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development published the draft strategy Monday, which will now be reviewed by other ministries and business associations before being submitted for government approval by executive order.

The document, almost 70 pages long, outlines four main scenarios for Russia’s low-carbon development through to midcentury.

“This strategy draft is the first comprehensive attempt of the federal government to look into Russia’s economic development trajectory toward 2050 climate goals,” said Mikhail Rasstrigin, Russia’s deputy minister of economic development.

“Importantly, it sets specific goals for the key areas where the bulk of energy efficiency effects could be reaped,” he added. According to the plan, those areas are industry, buildings, energy generation and transport.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to develop long-term, low-emission development strategies. So far, a U.N. database lists 15 such documents, including from the European Union, the United States, Germany and Japan.

Russia, the world’s fifth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, after China, the United States, the EU and India, did not officially join the Paris Agreement until September 2019.

In Russia’s new strategy, the “basic” scenario — which it deems to be the most feasible — shows emissions growing from now until 2030, climbing about 30 percent from 2017.

The 2030 projection still represents a 33 percent cut on 1990 levels. Emissions today, including forest carbon stocks, are already about 50 percent lower than at the end of the Soviet Union, which saw a shift away from a heavy industrial economy.

The new 2030 emissions reduction target will be announced as part of the country’s updated climate action plan due to be submitted to the United Nations later this year, and represents an increase in ambition from its previous goal of a 25 to 30 percent cut.

Russia’s emissions will be curbed over the next decade through measures including energy efficiency, the introduction of a carbon price, development of renewables and nuclear energy, less clear-cutting of forests and enlarging protected areas.

But that will be offset by higher economic growth and a significant decline in the ability of forests to absorb and store carbon due to wildfires, illegal logging and their rising age, the plan shows.

But, the strategy adds, the carbon intensity of the Russian economy — how much carbon it emits per unit of gross domestic product — is expected to drop by 9 percent in 10 years and by almost half by 2050 from the 2017 level.

The basic scenario does not foresee carbon neutrality by 2050, although emissions are forecast to start declining after 2030 to reach 36 percent below 1990 levels by midcentury.

If the government opts for an “intensive” approach, however, emissions could be cut by 48 percent by 2050, with Russia becoming carbon-neutral late this century, the plan noted.

Greenpeace Russia said the strategy was welcome but “modest,” adding the measures were not enough for Russia to make an “adequate contribution” toward a global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times.

scale and speed of Russia’s transformation toward a green future,” he added

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/27/business/russia-low-carbon-future/

 

So the plan is:

1) Increase emissions by 30% between now and 2030.

2) Reduce emissions by 5% between 2030 and 2050.

 

That should save the planet!!

Russia’s emissions of CO2 are about five times that of the UK’s.