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Booker On The Swansea Bay Lagoon

April 16, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3041005/CHRISTOPHER-BOOKER-1-billion-lagoon-Britain-s-pottiest-green-scheme.html

 

I published a post a couple of months ago on the proposed tidal lagoon project in Swansea Bay.

Christopher Booker has chapter and verse on it in the Daily Mail today.

 

Just when it seemed that our national energy policy — alongside defence of the realm, an absolute priority, to keep the lights on — couldn’t be managed in a madder or more alarming way, along comes the most bizarre project of all.

This is a £1 billion scheme to build a colossal U-shaped stone breakwater, six miles long, enclosing the whole of Swansea Bay in South Wales, containing 16 giant submerged turbines, whose blades would be seven metres across.

The idea is that these would be driven by the water pouring through them from both directions by the 30ft daily rise and fall of the Bristol Channel’s tides, the second highest in the world.

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Hottest Year? Not According To Satellites, Joe!

April 16, 2015

By Paul Homewood

 

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Even at this early stage of the year, there is a concerted effort to make it the “warmest evah”.

Joe Romm has this graph of the GISS numbers for the first three months of the year, and Gavin has clearly been busy!

 

 

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Unfortunately, the more comprehensive and accurate satellites show no such thing.

 

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Why Measuring Arctic Ice Trends From 1979 Is Gross Deception

April 15, 2015

By Paul Homewood  

 

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http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

 

Officially, we only started monitoring Arctic sea ice extents by satellite from 1979. We know however that this is not the whole story. For instance, HH Lamb tells us:

Kukla & Kukla (1974) report that the area of snow and ice, integrated over the year across the Northern Hemisphere, was 12% more in 1973 than in 1967, when the first satellite surveys were made.

 

What we also know is that 1979 in particular, and the 1970’s generally, were exceptionally cold years in and around the Arctic, as the Iceland Met Office graph below of Stykkisholmur temperatures clearly shows.

 

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http://en.vedur.is/climatology/articles/nr/1213

 

We find the same pattern of cycles in temperature hitting the bottom at this time all around the Arctic.

 

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The Truth Behind Record Sea Temperature Claims

April 15, 2015
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By Paul Homewood 

 

h/t John Kelly

 

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http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/record-seasurface-temperatures-in-pacific-point-to-record-warmth-in-2015-and-2016-20150414-1mjooh.html

 

The Age are banging their global warming drum again, this time over what they describe as record sea temperatures around Australia. And, of, course, its YOUR FAULT!

 

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As usual, however, when you delve into the facts, things aren’t quite as straightforward as they pretend.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, BOM, offer a full set of data/graphs for sea temperatures in that part of the world, right back to 1900. Now let me first of all say that I have grave doubts about the accuracy and comparability of sea temperatures from so far back, and even into more recent decades. Methods of measurement have changed over the years, and huge question marks should be put against the coverage.

Nevertheless, this is the only data we have got, and it is from this that “record” claims are being made. So, given that proviso, what does the data tell us?

 

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Strong Recovery In Multi Year Arctic Sea Ice Continues

April 14, 2015
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By Paul Homewood  

 

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https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/03/23/rapid-recovery-in-arctic-sea-ice-volume-back-to-2006-levels/

 

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago we have been witnessing a strong recovery in Arctic sea ice volume and thickness in the last three years.

This is due to the build up of multi year ice in recent years. I have been waiting for NSIDC to publish their Ice Age chart, which they have now done. (There is no link, as they have not released it publically yet – they have emailed it to me).

 

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As can be seen, all categories of multi year ice have increased since last year, apart from the 4-year percentage. Perhaps most significantly, 5-year and over ice has strongly recovered from its low point in March 2012.

The 2012 figure, of course, reflected the large amount of ice lost in 2007 and 2008.

With the large increase in 3 and 4-year ice in the last couple of years, there is a strong foundation for a continued increase in 5-year ice in the next two years.

Ron Clutz On The AMO

April 14, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

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Further to my latest piece on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Ron Clutz has posted a quite detailed piece on the scientific background and thinking on how the whole thing works.

 

We hear a lot about CO2 as climate’s “control knob, but about the oceans’ pacemaker, AMOC? Not so much.

In the Water World post, I referenced the match between SSTs (sea surface temperatures) as recorded in HadISSAT and the IPO, an index of SSTs in the Eastern Pacific: North, Central and South. This is a brief discussion of the Atlantic role in shaping climate patterns, especially in Europe and North America.

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UK Gas Power Plants Feel The Squeeze

April 14, 2015

By Paul Homewood   

 

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http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2015/04/closures-highlight-uk-s-growing-reliance-on-fewer-power-plants.html

 

PEI report:

 

The threatened closure of Killingholme 2 combined cycle turbine plant is set to make the UK more reliant on power plants that already make a major contribution to the country’s power generation.
Paul Verrill, director of energy data specialists
EnAppSys, told Power Engineering International the potential closure at Killingholme 2 (E.ON), following on from other potential closures at plants such as Killingholme 1 (Centrica), Brigg, Barry and Peterborough, highlights the varying degrees of success for CCGT plants within the GB power market.

 
Verrill

 

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Poland To Push Ahead With New Coal Power Stations

April 13, 2015
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By Paul Homewood  

 

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http://www.icis.com/resources/news/2015/04/13/9875162/coal-to-dominate-polish-power-supply-to-end-of-decade-despite-eu-goals/

 

While the French and Germans seem determined to commit economic suicide, Poland are pushing ahead with building more coal power plants.

The energy market information provider ICIS report:

 

More than half of Poland’s new major power generation projects to be built in the next four years will be coal-fired in spite of strict targets imposed by the EU on its member countries, capacity projections show.

However, to lessen exposure to volatile European carbon prices, the country is also building more gas-fired generation and new electricity interconnections to open up opportunities for further imports of cheaper power from neighbouring countries.

While most traders and analysts polled by ICIS admit Poland is slowly shifting away from its reliance on coal, they were at odds over what impact the new capacity might have on the wholesale electricity market.

Some said an increase in supply will push wholesale prices down while others argue any new investment would have to be priced in on the wholesale market so it could be recouped.

 

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French Bury Shale Gas Report

April 13, 2015
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By Paul Homewood  

 

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http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/naturalresources/article4404565.ece

 

Behind a paywall at the Times, but:

 

France’s refusal to countenance exploiting shale gas deposits will cost it up to €293 billion and 225,000 jobs over the next three decades, according to a confidential government report.

The report, which came down in favour of waterless fracking, was leaked to the media yesterday after it had been shelved by President Hollande’s Socialist-led cabinet.

The leak ignited a fierce political row and renewed angst in rural regions such as Provence, where locals are bitterly opposed to fracking. France’s radical shale gas laws make it an offence even to look for the fuel.
“Shale gas is no longer on the agenda,” said Ségolène Royal, the environment minister, who is Mr Hollande’s former partner.
The report was commissioned by Arnaud Montebourg, the former economy minister, who was dismissed by the president last year for urging left-wing policies. Only seven copies were printed and none was made public until Le Figaro obtained one yesterday.
Written by finance ministry experts, the report concluded that shale gas exploitation would generate between €103.6 billion and €293.1 billion for the French economy over the next 30 years. This would add between 0.9 per cent and 1.7 per cent to the annual growth rate and create between 120,000 and 225,000 jobs.
The public debt, expected to reach 97.1 per cent of national wealth this year, would fall by up to 17.6 percentage points, the finance ministry said.
The report claims that waterless fracking, which uses fluoropropane instead of water to fracture rocks and extract shale gas, would avoid environmental damage. France has an estimated 3.8 trillion cubic metres of shale gas reserves.

Germany Facing Energy Crunch

April 13, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

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http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFF9N0WF01U20150413

 

From Reuters:

 

FRANKFURT, April 13 (Reuters) – The economic viability of some 53 percent or 39 of the power plants planned for construction in Europe’s largest economy by 2025 has been called into question, German energy industry association BDEW said in a statement on Monday.

The association said investors were nervous because of lacking profitability for coal- and gas-fired power stations because of competing energy supplies from subsidised renewable power, and a tougher carbon emissions regime.

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