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It’s the 1970s all over again, and Joe Biden is the new Jimmy Carter

October 17, 2021

By Paul Homewood

 

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Want proof that the Biden administration is really the second incarnation of the Carter administration? We have runaway inflation, Americans trapped overseas, a member of the first family who tried to do business with Libya and a president begging the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC Plus) to increase oil production. It’s like the 1970s all over again.

Gas prices have risen $1 a gallon since Joe Biden’s election, while crude oil prices have doubled since November to $83 per barrel — and some analysts predict they could rise by another $10 before the end of the year. Natural gas prices have shot up more than 150 percent in the same period, which means winter heating bills for the half of American homes that use natural gas are projected to be 30 percent higher than last year — 49 percent higher in the Midwest.

This is the result of deliberate policy choices. Biden has made clear his intention to tax and regulate the fossil fuel industry out of existence. During the 2020 campaign, he declared, “I guarantee you. We’re going to end fossil fuel.”

Well, those threats have consequences. Today, the number of rigs producing oil across the United States is 528, roughly half its 2019 peak under President Donald Trump. When you tell oil producers you plan to put them out of business, they are not going to bolster production or drill more wells. When your $3.5 trillion “Build Back Better” plan would impose punitive taxes oil and gas, the producers are going to get the picture that building back better doesn’t include them.

And when you make clear you plan to destroy an industry, banks and investment firms stop investing in it. The New York Times reports that the “flow of capital from Wall Street has slowed to a trickle after a decade in which investors poured over $1.4 trillion into North American oil and gas producers through stock and bond issues and loans” as woke capitalists “pare their exposure to fossil fuels to meet the commitments they have made to fight climate change.” BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has announced that it intends to have “net zero emissions across our entire assets under management by 2050.”

The result? Less fossil fuel production and higher prices — with lower-income Americans who can afford it the least penalized the most at the pump.

Full story here.

China Backtracking?

October 16, 2021
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By Paul Homewood

 

Signs that China is already backtracking on its climate pledges:

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China plans to build more coal-fired power plants and has hinted that it will rethink its timetable to slash emissions, in a significant blow to the UK’s ambitions for securing a global agreement on phasing out coal at the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow.

In a statement after a meeting of Beijing’s National Energy Commission, the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, stressed the importance of regular energy supply, after swathes of the country were plunged into darkness by rolling blackouts that hit factories and homes.

While China has published plans to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030, the statement hinted that the energy crisis had led the Communist party to rethink the timing of this ambition, with a new “phased timetable and roadmap for peaking carbon emissions”.

China has previously set out plans to be carbon neutral by 2060, with emissions peaking by 2030, a goal analysts say would involve shutting 600 coal-fired power plants. President Xi Jinping has also pledged to stop building coal plants abroad.

 

“Energy security should be the premise on which a modern energy system is built and and the capacity for energy self-supply should be enhanced,” the statement said.

“Given the predominant place of coal in the country’s energy and resource endowment, it is important to optimise the layout for the coal production capacity, build advanced coal-fired power plants as appropriate in line with development needs, and continue to phase out outdated coal plants in an orderly fashion. Domestic oil and gas exploration will be intensified.”

Beijing’s renewed embrace of coal – apparently at odds with Xi’s state climate ambitions – are likely to cause alarm in the run-up to Cop26.

George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre and the author of Red Flags: Why Xi’s China Is in Jeopardy, said Beijing had been forced to revise its plans in the face of the reality of economic problems and power outages.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/12/china-coal-fired-plants-uk-cop26-climate-summit-global-phase-out

There is nothing new about the expansion of coal power, which we have known apart for a long time.

But what is significant is the statement from Premier Li Keqiang, which suggests that energy security is now the key objective rather than emissions, and that the promise to peak emissions by 2030 may be rethought.

Read more…

Coldplay’s Virtue Signalling World Tour

October 16, 2021

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian Magness

 

 

This must be in the running for the Virtue Signalling of the Year Award!

 

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Coldplay’s next tour will partly be powered by a dancefloor that generates electricity when fans jump up and down, and pedal power at the venues.

It’s part of a 12-point plan to cut their carbon footprint, two years after the band pledged not to tour until they could do so in a more sustainable way.

Singer Chris Martin told the BBC in his first interview about the plans that fans will be on "kinetic flooring".

"When they move, they power the concert," he said.

"And we have bicycles too that do the same thing," Martin told BBC entertainment correspondent Colin Paterson.

Coldplay will also plant a tree for every ticket sold. On their last tour in 2016-17, they played to 5.4 million people. That made it one of the biggest tours of all time, earning more than $500m (£380m).

The singer said he accepted there would be backlash about some of their activities, such as continuing to fly on private jets.

"I don’t mind any backlash at all," he said. "We’re trying our best, and we haven’t got it perfect. Absolutely. We always have backlash for everything.

"And the people that give us backlash for that kind of thing, for flying, they’re right. So we don’t have any argument against that."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-58898766

 

Now I admit I did not do GCEs in Kinetic Flooring, but I strongly suspect that far more energy went into making that floor than the energy it will save.

And all of those private jets? Yeah, we know we’re being hypocritical, but up yours!

Switching Renewable Subsidies To Gas Will Make Little Difference

October 14, 2021

By Paul Homewood

 

It is not only the UK that is thinking of switching green levies from electricity to gas.

But this analysis inadvertently highlights why the whole idea is so ludicrous:

 

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In the UK, consumer prices for electricity are five times more expensive than for gas. It is a disincentive to adopt electric heat pumps. To make things harder, 23% of the electricity price comes from climate and social levies. It’s just 2% for gas. No wonder the UK continues to install about 1.7 million gas boilers a year. Jan Rosenow and Richard Lowes at RAP call for changes that will incentivise customers to buy heat pumps while having a minimal effect on their total bill or the revenues raised, according to their calculations. One way is to simply move the levies from electricity to gas. The Netherlands and Germany are planning to do just that. Sweden has done it for decades. But such changes require serious policy reform and may face political barriers. Much simpler would be to minimise taxes on the electricity consumed by a heat pump, as Denmark started doing this January. Despite heat pump sales rising, without a drastic change it’s difficult to see how the UK will reach its target of 600,000 new heat pumps per year – it’s only in the tens of thousands now.

Read more…

Investors Are Steering Away From Oil & Gas

October 14, 2021
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By Paul Homewood

 

This item appeared in the Wall Street Journal’s daily 10-point guide to the top stories yesterday.

It goes to the heart of the energy crisis:

 

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Large swings in energy markets are nothing new. Because demand is so inelastic, even small changes in either supply or demand can cause big price changes.

Read more…

Inconvenient Tornado Data Disappears

October 13, 2021
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By Paul Homewood

 

For years NOAA have included this page on the tornado section of their website:

 

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One of the main difficulties with tornado records is that a tornado, or evidence of a tornado must have been observed. Unlike rainfall or temperature, which may be measured by a fixed instrument, tornadoes are short-lived and very unpredictable. If a tornado occurs in a place with few or no people, it is not likely to be documented. Many significant tornadoes may not make it into the historical record since Tornado Alley was very sparsely populated during the 20th century.

Much early work on tornado climatology in the United States was done by John Park Finley in his book Tornadoes, published in 1887. While some of Finley’s safety guidelines have since been refuted as dangerous practices, the book remains a seminal work in tornado research. The University of Oklahoma created a PDF copy of the book and made it accessible at John Finley’s Tornadoes.

Today, nearly all of the United States is reasonably well populated, or at least covered by NOAA’s Doppler weather radars. Even if a tornado is not actually observed, modern damage assessments by National Weather Service personnel can discern if a tornado caused the damage, and if so, how strong the tornado may have been. This disparity between tornado records of the past and current records contributes a great deal of uncertainty regarding questions about the long-term behavior or patterns of tornado occurrence. Improved tornado observation practices have led to an increase in the number of reported weaker tornadoes, and in recent years EF-0 tornadoes have become more prevelant in the total number of reported tornadoes. In addition, even today many smaller tornadoes still may go undocumented in places with low populations or inconsistent communication facilities.

With increased National Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the United States, the total number of EF-1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF-3 to EF-5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These tornadoes would have likely been reported even during the decades before Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports. The bar charts below indicate there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years.

EF1-EF5 Tornado Counts

EF3-EF5 Tornado Counts

http://web.archive.org/web/20200410134618/https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends

 

It is absolutely clear that the number of strong tornadoes has declined since the 1970s.

Alarmingly, however, this page has been “disappeared”, and the link now comes up with this:

 

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https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/societal-impacts/tornadoes/

There is no discussion whatsoever of changes in reporting methodology, or any of the detailed work done by earlier scientists.

All we have is the chart, along with a table, which dishonestly claims that tornadoes have become progressively more common.

Fortunately Wayback still has a copy of the original web page, and I also have it on file.

It is blindingly apparent that NOAA found their original assessment far too inconvenient, something that should be kept out of the public domain at all cost.

To be fair, it is problematic comparing historical data with today’s, when reporting methodology and techniques have changed so much.

But this does not stop NOAA from pretending they know what global temperatures were 150 years ago, or comparing current hurricane trends with pre-satellite counts, or claiming to know the size of the Greenland ice cap in the 1930s!

But if the historical data for tornadoes is so unreliable, how can they possibly justify publishing graphs like this every month?

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 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/202108

 

This is not “scientific”. It is fraud, pure and simple.

Maybe Zeke Hausfather and his crony factcheckers might care to investigate! There again, pigs might fly.

Adapt or Die, Warns Environment Agency

October 13, 2021

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian Magness

 

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We are used to absurd, over the top articles like this from the BBC, but Emma Boyd, chair of the Environment Agency should be sacked for producing this latest preposterous report:

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Hundreds of people could die in floods in the UK, the Environment Agency has warned in a hard-hitting report that says the country is not ready for the impact of climate change.

Read more…

Sky News Doomsday Climate Report Flooded with Misleading Sea Rise Claims–Guido

October 12, 2021
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By Paul Homewood

 

Congratulations to Guido, who beat me to it!

 

 

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Doom-mongering journalists at Sky News are reporting unsubstantiated graphic claims that London is on course to be flooded, illustrated with an image of Buckingham Palace in 3 metres of water. The only thing that is flooded is the report – flooded with misleading climate claims. Using graphics from hyperbolic campaign group, Climate Central, Sky News implies that famous world sites including Buckingham Palace, the Burj Khalifa and the Lincoln Memorial will be completely flooded by water due to fast rising sea levels if the UK fails to halve annual emissions by 2030. Hardly water tight journalism…

Full story here.

 

Where are Facebook’s fake factcheckers like Zeke Hausfather now?

Irish Climate Scientist Speaks Out

October 12, 2021

By Paul Homewood

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“The science is not settled”: Irish climate scientist Professor Ray Bates speaks out against the mainstream narrative on climate alarmism, arguing that climate science has become “politicised.”

Prof. Bates, who received his PhD in Meteorology from MIT, has been employed as Prof. of Meteorology at the Niels Bohr Institute in University of Copenhagen. He was a senior scientist at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and worked with MET Eireann.

 

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https://gript.ie/the-science-is-not-settled-irish-climate-scientist-speaks-out/

Analysis: Hurricanes Have Not Gotten More Intense, Frequent Over Past 170 Years

October 12, 2021

By Paul Homewood

 

 Yet another study gives the lie to the claim that hurricanes are getting worse because of climate change:

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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5

 

It is significant that all of the study’s authors are acknowledged to be leading experts on hurricanes, unlike the theoretical climate scientists who regularly claim that hurricanes are getting worse because their models and theory tells them so.