By Paul Homewood
Interesting to cast how minds back to what the IPCC had to say about satellite temperatures in 2007.
“Above the surface, global observations since the late 1950s show that the troposphere (up to about 10 km) has warmed at a slightly greater rate than the surface, while the stratosphere (about 10–30 km) has cooled markedly since 1979. This is in accord with physical expectations and most model results”
Since 2010, however, satellites have been diverging from surface sets at a rapid rate of knots.
By Paul Homewood
I had not spotted it before, but NOAA keep a database of satellite temperature, and provide a graphing tool which runs both RSS and UAH off the same 1981-2010 baseline (RSS use 1979-98 to calculate their anomalies usually).
The Jan – July graph makes interesting reading:
It not only reiterates that this year is nowhere near being a record, but also emphasises how closely RSS and UAH track each other.
It is generally accepted that climate models project faster warming in the troposphere than at the surface.
It is also known that satellite temperatures have spiked at higher levels during the El Nino events of 1998 and 2010. Although it is likely that they will go higher before the end of the year, as they lag behind ENSO changes, the satellite temperatures should already be showing the effect of El Nino conditions that have been around for more than a year now.
Finally, let’s remind ourselves of just how patchy the surface data really is.
By Paul Homewood
Another Bank Holiday, another washout!
It was not meant to be like this!
Back in 2006, climate genius David Viner told us:
Climate change could "dramatically" change the face of British tourism in the next 20 years, with European tourists flocking to the UK to escape unbearably hot continental summers, experts say.
Research shows that European tourists may choose to holiday in Britain as resorts nearer to home become too hot.
Weather changes may provide revival opportunities for northern seaside towns such as Blackpool and put new strains on roads and development in southern coastal resorts, a study in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism said.
Academic David Viner, a researcher at the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, produced the report after analysing the work of experts around the globe.
"The likelihood [is] that Mediterranean summers may be too hot for tourists after 2020, as a result of too much heat and water shortages," the study said.
There were "opportunities for the revival of northern European resorts, including Blackpool, in the next 20 years, as climate change and rising transport costs offer new holiday opportunities," it said.
Apparently nobody thought to tell the tourists!
By Paul Homewood
Ken Haapala of the Science and Environmental Policy Project has a good summary of recent record warmth claims and the divergence between surface and satellite data:
Divergence: It is summertime in the US, and temperatures are warmer. Several readers have asked TWTW for comments on the recent claims that July 2015 was the hottest month ever and similar announcements by certain US government entities, including branches of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). These entities are making strong public statements that the globe continues to warm, and the future is dire. A humorist could comment that the closer we are to the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP-21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to be held in Paris from November 30 to December 11, the hotter the globe becomes.
However, there are three significant forms of divergence that are being demonstrated. One divergence is the increasing difference between atmospheric temperatures and surface temperatures. The second divergence is the growing difference between temperatures forecast by models and observed temperatures, particularly atmospheric temperatures. This leads to the third divergence, the difference between the activities of what can be called the Climate Establishment and what is observed in nature.
The atmospheric temperatures are reported by two independent entities: the largely NASA-financed UAH entity at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) in California. The surface temperatures are reported by NOAA, NASA, and Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office, combined with those of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia. These measurements depend, in part, on the historic record maintained by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Unfortunately, for more than two decades, the historic record of the surface temperatures has been adjusted numerous times, without adequate records of the details and the effects. The net effect is an inflation of a warming trend, particularly obvious in the US where excellent historic records continue to exist. The UAH data have been adjusted, but the adjustments and effects have been publically recorded.
The divergence between the temperatures forecasted by the global climate models and the observed temperatures is becoming extremely obvious, particularly with the observed atmospheric temperatures. The adjustments to surface temperatures lessen this divergence somewhat, particular with the latest adjustments by the NCDC, where superior measurements taken by fixed or floating buoys were inflated to correspond with earlier, inferior measurements taken by ships. The director of NCDC, Tom Karl, was a lead author in the paper announcing this change. As a result, we should see announcements that sea surface temperatures, and global surface temperatures, are increasing, although the increase may be strictly an artifact of human adjustments rather than an occurrence in nature.
The questionable adjustments in reported surface temperatures leads to the third form of increasing divergence – the differences between what is reported by the Climate Establishment and what is occurring in nature. The Climate Establishment can be defined as those who embrace the findings of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), particularly the assertion of a high confidence, a high degree of certainty, that human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are causing unprecedented and dangerous global warming. Simply because data is adjusted to reflect the IPCC view, does not mean that the IPCC view is occurring.
The greenhouse effect takes place in the atmosphere, yet it is not being observed in the atmosphere. The satellite data, independently verified by four sets of weather balloon data, clearly shows it is not. There has been no significant warming for about 18 years. These data are the most comprehensive temperature data existing and are largely independent of other human influences that bias surface data such as urbanization, including building of structures and impervious surfaces, and other changes in land use. Those who broadcast claims of the hottest year ever, based on adjusted surface data, are actually emphasizing the divergence between science practiced by the Climate Establishment and Nature, and are not engaged in a natural science.
Unfortunately, many government entities and government-funded entities are involved in the Climate Establishment. The leaders of such government entities and funding entities demonstrate a lack of concern for institutional credibility, no respect for the scientific bases on which such institutions were built, including those who came before them and those who will replace them, and will leave their institutions in an inferior condition, rather than strengthen them.
It is important to note that not all government-funded entities are so involved. The National Space Science & Technology Center (NSSTC) at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), which is largely funded by the federal government (NASA) is a notable exception.
By Paul Homewood
I showed some graphs last month, giving summer temperature trends in Greenland.
For completeness, I am doing the same with annual temperatures.
The only two long running stations currently operational are Godthab and Angmagssalik. As before, I am using the unadjusted data from GISS:
By Paul Homewood
With the ever increasing divergence of surface temperatures from satellite ones, it is worth republishing this post from Roy Spencer last October:
Why 2014 Won’t Be the Warmest Year on Record
October 21st, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Much is being made of the “global” surface thermometer data, which three-quarters the way through 2014 is now suggesting the global average this year will be the warmest in the modern instrumental record.
I claim 2014 won’t be the warmest global-average year on record.
..if for no other reason than this: thermometers cannot measure global averages — only satellites can. The satellite instruments measure nearly every cubic kilometer – hell, every cubic inch — of the lower atmosphere on a daily basis. You can travel hundreds if not thousands of kilometers without finding a thermometer nearby.
(And even if 2014 or 2015 turns out to be the warmest, this is not a cause for concern…more about that later).
The two main research groups tracking global lower-tropospheric temperatures (our UAH group, and the Remote Sensing Systems [RSS] group) show 2014 lagging significantly behind 2010 and especially 1998:
By Paul Homewood
Meanwhile, back in the real world, the much more comprehensive and accurate satellite data shows nothing of the sort.
Below are the average annual anomalies for 1998 through 2014, along with 2015 YTD.
For UAH to surpass the record, the average anomaly for the last five months of the year would need to be 0.88C, a virtual impossibility since the July figure was just 0.18C.
By Paul Homewood
With just a couple of days left, the Met Office have confirmed just how cold the summer has been in the UK:
Despite a dry and sunny June and a brief heat-wave at the start of July, summer overall looks set to be cooler than average and cooler than either summer 2013 or 2014. It has also been rather wetter than average, however sunshine totals are expected to be near average.
In general the weather has been dominated by a westerly flow from the Atlantic, bringing often cool and rather wet conditions, especially in the north and west, with the south-east generally experiencing the best of any warm, dry, sunny spells.
Using provisional figures up to 26 August* and then assuming average conditions for the final few days of the month, Met Office statistics show the UK mean temperature for this summer will be around 14 °C. This is 0.4 °C below the long term average (1981-2010).
Apart from 2011 and 2012, this would make it the coldest summer since 1998.
Unsurprisingly, the Met Office did not see this coming at the end of May.
Pleased to say the Ma in Law is well on the mend, if bored stiff in a hospital bed.
She’s finally getting a transfer to our local hospital on Monday, so we will be travelling home tomorrow, and normal service will soon be resumed.
Stay tuned for the latest story on Slingo’s incompetence!
US Green Energy Subsidies ‘Unfair and Ineffective’, Study Finds | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
A University of California study has slammed the fairness, efficiency and effectiveness of billions of dollars of so-called green energy subsidies provided by the US government.
The US federal government has paid $US18.1 billion in tax credits since 2006 aimed at encouraging American households to install energy-efficient windows, air conditioning schemes, rooftop solar in their homes and buy electric and other hybrid vehicles.
The study has found the bottom 60 per cent US households by income received about 10 per cent of the value of the four main ‘green energy’ tax credits available, while the top 20 per cent (those with annual incomes above $US75,000) extracted 60 per cent of the benefit.
“The most extreme [example] is the program aimed at electric vehicles, where the top income quintile received about 90 per cent of all credits,” concluded Severin Borenstien and Lucas Davis, from the University of California, Berkeley.
The biggest credit, the Non-Business Energy Property Credit, permits non-refundable tax credits of up to $US1500 and has cost $US13.7 billion since 2006.
“While there may well be political or other rationales to prefer this approach, it would seem to be difficult argue for these policies on distributional grounds,” the professors said.
The Alternative Motor Vehicle Credit permits tax credits up to $US4000 for purchase of eligible hybrid vehicles has cost $550 million since introduced in 2006. Households earning more than $US200,000 a year enjoyed 11 per cent of this credit and 35 per cent of the benefit of a similar Electric and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles credit, which has cost $US346 million.
“We were struck by the horizontal inequity of these programs,” the study said, referring to the inability of people without tax liabilities to enjoy any benefit.
Their study The Distributional Effects of US Clean Energy Tax Credits found installations of energy efficient household items had soared but couldn’t conclude the credits were responsible. “If credits do no induce additional sales, then the primary effect is just to transfer rents to participants in transactions that would have taken place anyway,” they said.
“A growing body of evidence has shown that these policies are considerably less efficient than first-best policies,” they said. “There is wide agreement among economists that the best policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other negative externalities from energy use would be to use a tax or cap-and-trade program,” the Berkeley economists said, noting that 65 per cent of global CO2-equivalent emissions came not from households but from business use of power.
One of the major concerns in the UK about solar subsidies, is that are transferring money from electricity bill payers, many of them poor, and handing it over to people with large houses and the money to afford solar panels.