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IEA: Falling Oil Prices Are Derailing The Future Of Renewable Energy

May 20, 2015

By Paul Homewood

 

The greenies are wailing, and it’s SO UNFAIR!

 

From Fusion:

 

Falling oil and gas prices have short-circuited rollouts of renewable energy and alternative vehicle use, setting back progress toward reaching climate goals, the world’s top energy body said Monday.

In a new report, the International Energy Agency warns much more investment will be needed in technologies like the one Tesla unveiled Friday because current rates of financing are not enough to allow by less than the 2° Celsius.

Many analysts had been hopeful that renewable investment could withstand the price drop brought about by America’s shale oil and gas boom.

“Even with the price of oil being lower, cheaper materials have made solar still far more practical,” Jeff Osborne, an analyst with financial services company Cowen Group, told CNBC in December.

But the IEA says it’s not happening.

“It is troubling that advances in those areas that were showing strong promise – such as electric vehicles [sic!!] and all but solar photovoltaics (PV) in renewable power technologies – are no longer on track to meet [2° Celsius] targets,” the group said.

“While the recent drop in fossil fuel prices changes the short-term economic outlook of energy markets, using it to justify a delay in energy system transformation would be misguided in the long term. Short-term economic gains and delaying investment in clean energy technologies will be outweighed by longer-term costs.”

They outline which countries are making progress the most progress toward decarbonizing their energy systems. The largest fossil fuel producers, like the U.S. and Russia, have shown almost none.

Antarctic Temperatures Not Unusual

May 19, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

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The Antarctic may have warmed up since the 19thC, but are current temperatures there anything unusual?

NIPCC have a useful list of studies which show that it has been regularly warmer in the recent past.

 

In a news & views item published in Nature Geoscience, van Ommen (2013) comments on the prior publications of Abram et al. (2013) and Steig et al. (2013), which, in his words, "add to the evidence that changes currently seen in Antarctica are unusual relative to the past 2000 years." And he says that "taken together, alongside other indicators of change, the message is becoming clearer: Antarctica is very likely to be showing a response to the warming climate of the planet," which he says may "reflect the effects of a combination of natural variability and the early impacts of rising greenhouse gas concentrations."

But are the findings of Abram et al. and Steig et al. truly unusual relative to the past 2000 years? In a word, no. And why? Because several scientific studies of Antarctic temperature reconstructions clearly suggest otherwise, as can readily be verified by perusing the brief one-sentence synopses listed below that pertain to a half-dozen journal articles on this subject.

Read more…

Have Global Warming Warnings Reached A Tipping Point?

May 19, 2015

By Paul Homewood 

 

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http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/04/25-years-of-predicting-the-global-warming-tipping-point/

 

For decades now, those concerned about  global warming have been predicting the so-called “tipping point” — the point beyond which it’ll be too late to stave off catastrophic global warming.

It seems like every year the “tipping point” is close to being reached, and that the world must get rid of fossil fuels to save the planet. That is, until we’ve passed that deadline and the next such “tipping point” is predicted.

Would you believe it was eight years ago today that the United Nations predicted we only had “as little as eight years left to avoid a dangerous global average rise of 2C or more.” This failed prediction, however, has not stopped the U.N. from issuing more apocalyptic predictions since.

To celebrate more than two decades of dire predictions, The Daily Caller News Foundation presents this list of some of the “greatest” predictions made by scientists, activists and politicians — most of which we’ve now passed.

 

1. 2015 is the ‘last effective opportunity’ to stop catastrophic warming

World leaders meeting at the Vatican last week issued a statement saying that 2015 was the “last effective opportunity to negotiate arrangements that keep human-induced warming below 2-degrees [Celsius].”

Pope Francis wants to weigh in on global warming, and is expected to issue an encyclical saying basically the same thing. Francis will likely reiterate that 2015 is the last chance to stop massive warming.

But what he should really say is that the U.N. conference this year is the “last” chance to cut a deal to stem global warming…  since last year when the U.N. said basically the same thing about 2014’s climate summit.

 

 

Read the rest here.

 

Holidays (Again)!

May 19, 2015

 

 

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I’m away for a week, cycling down the Loire!

 

There’s a few posts lined up, but as usual moderation will be slow. 

Matt Ridley On Divestment

May 18, 2015

By Paul Homewood 

 

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http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4443252.ece

 

Matt Ridley has another sensible piece at the Times: 

 

 

Institutions and pension funds are under pressure to dump their investments in fossil-fuel companies. The divestment movement began in America, jumped the Atlantic and has become the cause célèbre of the retiring editor of The Guardian, Alan Rusbridger. The idea is that if we do not “leave it in the ground”, the burning of all that carbon will fry the climate.
Some are resisting: the Wellcome Trust has politely declined to divest, saying it thinks it is better to keep the shares so it can lean on company executives to decarbonise; the University of Edinburgh unexpectedly voted last week not to divest, using a similar argument; and Boris Johnson has just rejected a motion by the London Assembly to divest its pension funds of fossil-fuel shares. The Church of England has cunningly confined its divestment to “thermal coal” and Canadian oil sands companies, getting good publicity but not having to sell many shares.
Of course, divestment represents an admission that fossil fuels are not going to run out, as was commonly believed until the shale bonanza began. The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, seems sympathetic to the argument that climate change policies will soon make fossil fuels unburnable and that oil reserves may become “stranded assets”. So sell your BP shares before the company’s raison d’etre vanishes in a puff of non-smoke.
It’s all mad. Divestment won’t work, is unethical, hypocritical, aimed at the wrong target and based on flawed premises.

Read more…

NCAR’s Record Temperature Con

May 18, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

 

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https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/1036/record-high-temperatures-far-outpace-record-lows-across-us

 

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More climate fraud, this time from NCAR, funded by the National Science Foundation, NCAR’s sponsor, the Department of Energy, and Climate Central.

It claims to show that there are many more record high temperatures than there used to be, which, according to Gerald Meehl, shows how our climate is already shifting.

You may have noted how they only start their analysis from 1950. However, USHCN offer a handy little tool, which analyses daily records back to 1910 for a selection of sites with long and relatively complete data records.

 

 

Just a reminder, a record daily high means that temperatures were warmer on a given day than on that same date throughout a weather station’s history, but also ties are included.

 

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NCDC have nine Climate Regions, so let’s take a geographically representative station from each, and see how the daily record high temperatures are distributed.

 

Read more…

India Plan 60% Increase In Coal Output By 2020

May 18, 2015
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By Paul Homewood  

 

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http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-05-13/news/62124619_1_power-minister-piyush-goyal-coal-india-ltd-coal-sector 

 

The Indian government are lining up a big expansion for coal production, as well as renewable energy. The Times of India reports:

 

NEW DELHI: Government today said investments worth $ 250 billion are planned over the next five years in coal, power and renewable energy and it is looking at opening 40-50 new coal mines in 18 months.

"The Power, Coal and Renewable energy sectors have plans to invest nearly USD 250 billion in the next five years…. In the coal sector we are looking at opening nearly 40-50 new mines in the next one and half year," Coal and Power Minister Piyush Goyal said at a seminar here.

Western Coalfields Ltd, an arm of Coal India Ltd, is alone looking at opening around 12 mines in the next 12 months, he said.

"On the transmission side, we are looking at nearly a hundred thousand crores worth of new lands being bid out in next six months… All of this will lead to massive investment in coal sector," Goyal said.

He also expressed optimism that a billion tonnes of coal production by Coal India Ltd by 2020 would be achieved.

On the conclusion of first round of imported gas subsidy auction, he said, "There were 14 technically qualified bidders and successful bidders are 7-8. Effective tariff is going to be in the region of 4.70 paise or 75 thereabout which is very competitive."

This process has enabled Ratnagiri Power, the Dabol power plant, to also bid successfully and possibly start supplying power, he added.

"The LNG facilities can now be used," Goyal said. He added that it is a "win-win situation for India" and a "big thumbs up" to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision to provide 24×7 power to every part of the country.

 

As is the case with China, India need every bit of energy they can lay their hands on, if they want to improve their economy and people’s standards of living. They also know that intermittent, expensive renewables can only fill part of the gap, hence the plan to push forward on coal and gas.

 

To put the numbers into perspective, the billion tonnes of coal a year by 2020 compares with output of 613Mt in 2013.

South Africans Warned Of Bitterly Cold Winter

May 17, 2015

By Paul Homewood  

 

h/t Ice Age Now

 

Hottest Year Ever Update:   

 

Letseng Diamond Mine plant in Mokhotlong, Lesotho

 

Cape Town – 12 May 2015 –  Warnings of a bitterly cold winter this year is fast becoming a reality for South Africans, as snow fall was reported again this weekend in the higher parts of the country and Lesotho.

Snow fall was reported on the Sani Pass in KwaZulu-Natal, on Lesotho’s AfriSki Mountain Resort, on the Letseng Diamond Mine plant in Mokhotlong, Lesotho, and in Elliot in the Eastern Cape.

The South African Weather Service, in their seasonal weather report, warned that below-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are to be expected until the end of May this year.

After May, a colder than usual winter is expected especially in the Eastern Cape of SA, among other regions. Traveller24 reported earlier that a longer than usual winter with bitterly cold, dry conditions, and plenty of heavy frost and sub-zero temperatures can be expected in these areas.

South Africans are urged to make sufficient preparations for facing the upcoming cold months with limited use of electricity. South Africans are also urged to make safe use of alternative heat and cooking sources such as gas and paraffin.

The Arctic Ice Death Spiral!

May 17, 2015
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Read more…

Met Office & El Ninos

May 16, 2015
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By Paul Homewood 

 

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https://youtu.be/WPA-KpldDVc

   

The Met Office have a short, informative video on El Ninos. (Click on link).

 

 

Based on MEI, the current El Nino, which has started a year ago, is close to 2006 levels, but not as strong yet as the 2010 one.

 

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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

It is always worth remembering that El Ninos put a lot of energy into the atmosphere, much of which escapes into space. As such, they are in effect a cooling mechanism, a bit like taking the lid off a pan of boiling water.