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Rapid Recovery In Arctic Sea Ice Volume Back To 2006 Levels

March 23, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Ima Debatin’

 

screenhunter_8077-mar-23-06-20

 

 

Despite all of the headlines recently about “record low Arctic ice”, sea ice extent has actually been regrowing for the last two weeks, and is nearly back to where it was on 22nd February.

 

ssmi_ice_ext

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi_ice_area.png

 

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The Truth Behind The Totten Glacier

March 22, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-26/sea-water-melting-totten-glacier-in-antarctica-from-below/6047076

 

The Totten Glacier in East Antarctica is the latest scare story for melting glaciers and rising sea levels. This report from ABC seems typical:

 

Warm ocean water is melting one of the world’s biggest glaciers from below, potentially leading to a rise in sea levels, Australian scientists have discovered.

Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis recently returned to Hobart from Antarctica, with a team of 23 scientists who had used new technology to collect the first water samples near the Totten Glacier.

Steve Rintoul from the Australian Climate and Environment Cooperative Research Centre said the results indicated the glacier was being melted by the sea water beneath it.

"The measurements we collected provide the first evidence that warm water reaches the glacier and may be driving that melt of the glacier from below," he said. 

According to Australian Antarctic Division estimates, the Totten Glacier holds enough water to raise sea level by six metres and scientists said it had been thinning over the past 15 years.

"We used to think the glaciers in east Antarctica were unlikely to be affected by the ocean because they were a long way away from the warm ocean waters," he said.

"The fact that it’s changing is something new, we used to think that the glaciers in east Antarctic were very stable and unlikely to change."

But he said it was too soon to tell if the glacier was melting as a result of a changing global climate.

"What our observations can’t tell us is how things have changed over time, because this is the first time anyone has made measurements in this area," he said.

"The measurements we’ve collected here are crucial for setting a benchmark that can be used to assess future change." 

 

This one is, of course, just one more in a run of scare stories about melting Antarctic glaciers. Although the scientists are reluctant to link this with global warming, many in the media will not let that fact stop from doing so.

There appear to be a few obvious, initial thoughts:

 

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Typhoon Tip

March 22, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

591x400_10131929_earths-strongest-most-massive-storm-ever_3

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earths-strongest-most-massive-storm-ever/

 

Typhoon Tip in 1979 had the lowest sea level pressure ever recorded on Earth, but also set the record as the largest storm, according to post analysis carried out by George Dunnavan and John Diercks.

Scientific American have the story:

 

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Wikipedia Rewrite History – Part II

March 22, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

After much crowd sourcing, I can update the position regarding Wikipedia’s downgrading of Hurricane Camille. For those who missed the first part, it is here.

 

Currently, Wiki show Camille’s maximum 1-minute wind speeds as 175 mph.

 

image

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Camille

 

It has always been accepted that Camille’s winds were at least 195 mph.

 

Using the History tab on Wiki, we can find that as recently as 4th March, a figure of 190 mph was given. (A quick flick through some of the previous entries shows the wind speed changing back and forth!)

 

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http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hurricane_Camille&oldid=649887353

 

It then seems to have changed to the new version of 175 mph on the 7th March, by somebody called CrazyC83.

 

As I think we would all agree, we should treat anything from Wiki with a large dose of scepticism. Certainly on anything controversial or complex, I would always check out the sources they give, or compare with others.

The problem, though, is that most people do treat Wikipedia as gospel. 

Booker On The BBC & Cyclone Pam

March 22, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11485976/The-BBC-could-have-checked-Wikipedia-for-the-truth-about-Cyclone-Pam.html

 

Booker goes to town on the BBC and false claims about Cyclone Pam:

 

Inevitably quick off the mark after Vanuatu’s Cyclone Pam disaster were the climate ghouls to claim that this terrible event must have been caused by global warming. First up was the country’s president, Baldwin Lonsdale, who, although aware that the storm was on its way, had departed a few hours earlier to attend a conference on “disaster risk” in Japan, where he burbled to reporters that it was evidence of “climate change, rising sea levels” etc. Next, in a similar vein, came France’s President Hollande, due next December to host the mammoth global conference where they hope to agree on a treaty to halt this threat to the planet.

But equally inevitable was that the BBC would get in on the act. Thus Monday’s Today programme wheeled on Professor Tim Palmer, in charge of climate modelling at Oxford University, to confirm President Lonsdale’s worst fears. Such “incredibly intense” category five cyclones, he told John Humphrys, are “exactly the type of cyclone that is predicted by the climate models to increase under climate change, under global warming”.

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Wikipedia Rewrite History

March 21, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

1024px-Hurricane_camille

 

It has been well established for a long while that Hurricane Camille is the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record. Camille recorded sustained wind speeds of at least 195 mph just before making landfall on the Mississippi coast in 1969.

 

I was therefore astonished to find that Wikipedia now show the maximum wind speed as 175 mph, thereby downrating Camille to only the 8th most powerful Atlantic hurricane.

 

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The Changing Methods For Measuring Tropical Cyclones

March 21, 2015

By Paul Homewood

 

th

 

While tropical cyclones are in the news, I though I would take a look at the history and background of how we measure the speed and atmospheric pressure of them.

In recent years, most of the data comes from satellites, using the Dvorak technique. This was developed in the 1970’s and 80’s by Vernon Dvorak (and, no, he did not write the New World Symphony!). The technique relies on visible and infrared satellite images to identify cloud patterns and temperature distribution in the core to estimate wind speeds and atmospheric pressure.

To reemphasise, the wind speeds and pressure are only estimated, essentially from modelled data, and not actually measured by the satellites.

There are benefits and drawbacks to this system. On the plus side, cyclones can be constantly measured. Previously, they could only be properly monitored by hurricane hunter aircraft, which could be a hit and miss affair. For instance, in the Atlantic, such planes were usually readily available to fly to any potential areas of cyclonic activity, whereas in the middle of the South Pacific they would have been much less common.

Another problem with aircraft spotting was that they rarely entered the strongest storms for safety reasons. For instance, leading hurricane expert, Chris Landsea, found that many times during the late 1940s the aircraft often did not penetrate the center of hurricanes with central pressures in the 950s or even the 960s. If this criteria of, say, a 960-mb threshold were utilized, many of these cyclones would have been listed with a peak intensity of only Category 3 strength.” As a result, many Category 5’s would have been missed completely, and Category 4’s classified as weaker hurricanes, or even tropical storms.

 

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BBC & Guardian Lies About Pam

March 20, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-31866783

 

Two examples of how we are being badly lied to by the left wing media about Cyclone Pam.

 

 

First, the BBC, in their report on 16th March, showed the above chart. By claiming that windspeeds of 300 km/h, just below those of Tip, they can give the impression that Pam was one of the strongest storms ever.

However, their figure of 300 km/h is grossly overstated. The true figure, as confirmed by NOAA within hours, was 145 kt, equivalent to 268 kph. As we have already seen, this is not an uncommon event, even in the South Pacific.

 

The BBC also state that the low pressure reading makes it one of the most intense tropical storms.

This is another grossly inaccurate claim, as there have been at least 37 typhoons in the NW Pacific alone since the 1950’s with pressure lower than this.

 

 

Then we have the Guardian, and their “blame it all on climate change” report, also published on 16th March.

 

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Sea Levels Not Rising At Vanuatu

March 20, 2015
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By Paul Homewood  

 

It is understandable that the President of Vanuatu should want to blame Cyclone Pam on man made global warming. Depressingly, it is also no surprise that the likes of the BBC and the Guardian should repeat his claims, as if they had any scientific basis.

 

According to President Lonsdale:

“We see the level of sea rise … The cyclone seasons, the warm, the rain, all this is affected … This year we have more than in any year … Yes, climate change is contributing to this.”

 

Leaving aside the storm itself, what about sea level rise?

According to the tidal gauge at Port Vila, the capital of Vanuatu, not a lot apparently.

 

1841_high

http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/1841.php

 

Monthly levels peaked out in 2009, but since then, they have fallen back to the levels of a decade ago.  

Hottest Year Update – Ferry Stuck In Ice Off Nova Scotia

March 19, 2015

By Paul Homewood  

 

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http://iceagenow.info/2015/03/icebreaker-frees-ferry-stuck-ice-nova-scotia-video/

 

Reposted from Ice Age Now:

 

“I’m certain Al Gore and friends will have a good explanation why a ferry over 1000 miles south of the ice-less Arctic Circle is stuck in ice.” – John B.

After the Louis S. St-Laurent cleared a path through the ice, the Marine Atlantic passenger ferry, the MV Highlanders, has been freed. The Louis S. St-Laurent is the largest icebreaker in the Canadian Coast Guard fleet.

The ferry,  with 190 people aboard, became stuck in pack ice last night off Cape Breton, has now reached port in Newfoundland.

While sea ice in this area is not unusual at this time of year, the extent and thickness of the ice is noteworthy. 

 

MV Highlanders-ferry-icebound-17Mar2015

 

 

Read the rest here.