How Wet Was The Spring?
June 12, 2024
By Paul Homewood
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After all the hype about how wet it’s been this spring, and how it’s due to climate change, the actual figures confirm that it has actually been far from unprecedented.
Much wetter were the springs of 1979, 1981 and 1983, all occurring during the period of global cooling, which set in after the 1940s.
More to the point, there are no long term trends to either drier or wetter springs. It’s all just weather:
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Nor has any month been unusually wet:
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Only slightly o/t but I have been invited to have a one to one video conference with this guy.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/karl-shepherdson-5981b6102/?trk=people_directory&originalSubdomain=uk
here is a bio of him
https://sites.reading.ac.uk/connected/2021/09/23/the-indisputable-truth/
It seems the Met Office feels I should be re-educated for having the audacity to question their integrity! ho, ho ,ho.
Anybody got any specific questions/topics they would like me to include if I can?
Try asking him why the Met Office twist the facts to create a climate
emergency.
Ask him when the Met Office is going to get back to being a weather service.
Karl is now a Regional Network Manager for the Met Office, looking after all the weather stations in the north of England.
I’d plan to attack him on his home turf. Find some plainly inadequate weather stations in his home region and use them to undermine his waffle.
Great tactic IDAU!
Ask how can the Met Office make claims of global warming when their network of weather stations is not fit for purpose.
I woukd ask him what the UK temperature trend is using only the highest standard and long-dated sites. And why, if that trend is different from the one they claim, they aren’t sceptical of the different trend.
Good luck Ray, from his bio you might be subjected to an harangue. The first thing I’d tell him if he describes you or anyone as a “climate denier” then he’s lost the argument.
Apart from the good questions above I’d ask why someone who wants to independently verify the veracity of claimed weather records should face the trials and tribulations of dealing with the Met Office to get the information’ and then be invited to a one to one with a expert.
It all sounds all very much like re-education in The Ministry Of Love, if I’ve remembered correctly
Perhaps ask him what the chances were of so many airports / airfields being originally built at the precise locations that *years later* would ‘coincidentally’ enable weather stations to report temperature ‘records’ for their general area / county / country region / month / year etc!
Ask if he can think of any common factor that enables those specific locations to report higher temperatures than other spots in their locality?
Acres of concrete maybe? Enormous quantities of fuels being burnt AND *directed downwards* in the immediate locality of thermometers virtually simultaneously with ‘record’ warmth being recorded by multiple planes warming-up, taxi-ing & thrust for take-off AND during reverse-thrust for landing? Busy airports with multiple runways (e.g heat-magnet Heathrow) can have planes simultaneously taking off & landing, so that virtuallydoubles the local heat-energy dumping.
Apparently:
1 megajoule = 0.277777778 kilowatt-hour
The energy density of aviation fuel is generally between 43 and 48 MJ/kg (so say 45.5MJ/kg)
An A380 would consume 17,250kg for take-off
https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/105123/airbus-a380-and-boeing-747-fuel-consumption-while-taking-off#:~:text=With%20a%20quite%20good%20approximation,fuel%20during%20the%20climb%20phase.
If those figures are correct, that’s 218MW *raising* the temperature of localised air *being thrust DOWNWARDS*
Good luck with your vid conference Ray!
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/19/uk-weather-record-hottest-day-ever-heatwave
A likely Met Office ‘defence’ here:
https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news/local-news/met-office-explains-coningsby-records-8736107#
See also comment by Chris Martin July 26, 2019 6:03 pm
Why do you use class 4 and 5 weather stations for climate data when they have a WMO 2-5 c?
Seems better worded questions have been put. Good luck Ray, I hope the re-education doesn’t work!
Hi vicki and thanks for the kind words. That is definitely one of the points I will be making. Even more surprising is that the Met is still installing brand new Class 5 stations. This was yesterday’s weather extremes.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/weather-extremes
The national high was at Plymouth Kinterbury point. This site does not appear on their published list of Climate or Synoptic stations nor on their supplied list of CIMO rated sites. It is actually very new indeed and a ridiculously bad site as below.
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/50%C2%B023'46.9%22N+4%C2%B012'04.3%22W/@50.3966451,-4.2015455,173m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d50.39636!4d-4.20118?entry=ttu
That they are sill installing with a few metres of buildings and concrete hardstanding and then claiming “extremes” is clearly fraudulent. By the way that is NOT their nearest to a helipad site – they actually installed one at Battersea Heliport in 2018!.
Hi Ray, having just looked at this new site, they enjoy putting them in ‘Urban Heat Islands’ don’t they? I’ve always wondered about their placing, even as a child, when hottest temps were mentioned on the news from places like Heathrow, I’d be thinking ‘it’s an airport, all the concrete, buildings and (metal) aircraft?? How can that give a true reading? I now relies they weren’t meant too!!
Thanks Ray, for the links, very interesting. They are bookmark for future refence.
When you study the locations of official Met Office weather stations you struggle to believe how astonishingly poor many/the majority of them are. This is a street view of perhaps one of the more ironic “Manual” recording sites at Nettlecombe.
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.1307546,-3.3496342,3a,30y,257.47h,80.05t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipMpX6_kQblV5HediI017l6Z7Z7kO3CpadLouU-G!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipMpX6_kQblV5HediI017l6Z7Z7kO3CpadLouU-G%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya120.637825-ro-0-fo100!7i12000!8i6000?coh=205409&entry=ttu
Those parked vans by the white Stevenson screen belong to the Field Studies Council. It is FSC staff who take the readings!
You really couldn’t make it up! You would think they would site them better, back from roads, etc.
Yes, ask him whether there’s a chance that the Keeling Curve will be checked given ocean outgassing and Asian coal burning. How does this affect the drivelling climate change chapter on the Met Office website?
Ask him how climate change is responsible for a global rise in quicksand sinkings:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13517075/quicksand-woman-swallowed-beach-husband.html
First graph “Rainfall Amount England Spring” shows a rising trendline?
Agree. Gentle linear trend upwards with a periodic behaviour superimposed which looks suspiciously like it might relate to AMO, a similar response to what is seen in temps and in glacial retreat data since the LIA.
And the trend looks similar throughout the record, suggesting it has nothing to do with AGW which would have to be post-1950s to be consistent with IPCC AR5 & AR6
There’s no trend. That’s a random walk. Look at 1860 to 1960 – it’s absolutely trendless. The apparent rise is caused by 3 very wet years, but that’s just a classic random clump. The data then reverts to its previous pattern.
No it doesn’t. That’s just a calculation, not a trend. Look at the actual data – it’s clearly trendless. Look at the trend line – it moves up and down all the time.
The trend line is calculated over far too short a period to be meaningful.
Ray : Karl Sheperdson states “the climate does not stop at borders”. So what does he propose in the unlikely situation that the UK actually achieves NZ50 ? A giant geodesic dome over the UK that somehow follows the NI border and that allows rain to enter ? Or shall we just allow “our” CO2 free atmosphere to disperse around the world ? We may currently “lead” in our decarbonisation/deindustrialisation plans but is anybody following ?
Mr Shepherdson also refers to “key Met Office objectives” but should a supposed observational reporting organisation also have it’s own “objectives” ?. My Regards & Thanks for your efforts.
Those graphs are about as random.as you could get within a system that has some constraints.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cl55ggjqvx7o
BBC advises that Swiss glaciers are important for European water supply.
😀
These Met Office time series graphs are puzzling me. Looking at “summer” and “rainfall” together with UK overall or any particular nation, and 1959 does NOT appear particularly out of the ordinary (or am I mis-reading something?)
So how come the period from May to September 1959 was reported at the time as outstandingly dry by none other than the Met Office?
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1960.tb00655.x#:~:text=The%20most%20settled%20part%20of,no%20measurable%20rain%20at%20all.
In fact the whole year was quite exceptional but none of it appears to show now in the “official” records.
https://www.trevorharley.com/1959.html#:~:text=Overall%20cold%20with%20frequent%20fog,but%20dull%20in%20the%20east.
Psychologist and amateur meteorologist Trevor Harley above equates the year to on a close par with 1976 in many aspects but this just does not show in the records. This makes me think the Met Office “Averages” calculations are quite meaningless (or more likely manipulated) in the real world.