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GHCN Are Even Inflating Current Temperatures In New York

February 17, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

There is a footnote to yesterday’s story about the huge adjustments made by NOAA to the temperature record in NY State.

Recall the Jan 2018 temperatures for the three stations we looked at, as derived from the actual station data:

 

Auburn – 20.5F

Geneva – 21.0F

Ithaca – 19.6F

 

I have looked at what GISS are now showing for last month. Screenshots are below, and are in Centigrade.

If we convert to Fahrenheit and compare with the true data, we get:

 

GISS Actual Diff
Auburn 21 20.5 0.5
Geneva 21.9 21 0.9
Ithaca 20.8 19.6 1.2

 

 

In other words, not only have historical temperatures been reduced, even now GISS/GHCN are inflating current temperatures. (Note – the GISS temperatures are the “GHCN Adjusted Data”, and have not been adjusted by GISS).

 

To get an idea of the scale of tampering, GISS themselves provide a comparison of unadjusted and adjusted data for Ithaca:

image

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show.cgi?id=425003041740&ds=5&dt=1

 

These are annual numbers, not specifically winter. But they do show that temperatures in the notably warm years have been adjusted down by more than 2C.

The actual data shows that Ithaca was consistently as warm, and occasionally warmer in the 1920s, 30s and 40s as in recent times.

Whatever we think about the accuracy of temperatures in the past, there is no excuse for altering current ones.

Auburn

 image

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=425003003210&dt=1&ds=12 (Click on “Monthly Data as text”)

 

Geneva

image

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=425003031840&dt=1&ds=12

 

 image

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=425003041740&dt=1&ds=12

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US Big Freeze Is Adjusted Out Of Existence By Noaa

February 16, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

 image_thumb107

Weather records have tumbled across North America, with freezing temperatures even in the southern US.

The most extreme arctic blasts, blamed on a weather pattern known as the polar vortex, were said to have affected nearly 190 million people.

In Kentucky, an escaped prisoner turned himself in to get out of the cold.

Some parts of the Midwest hit -26C (-14F), as low as the Antarctic coast in winter, and much colder than the inside of a domestic freezer.

Temperature records were shattered in states across the US, including Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Michigan, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-25647963

 

Remember that record breaking cold spell which large parts of North America suffered through last month? The worst affected parts were the East coast and Midwest.

It might surprise citizens in those parts to learn that the temperature during January was little colder than average. In the Northeast for instance, the region that includes New England along with NY, PA, NJ, DE and MD, temperatures look positively mild.

 

canvas

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/101/0/tavg/1/1/1895-2018?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

 

Of course, the record cold did not last all month, and there were a couple of mild spells later in the month.

But how does the NOAA summary above compare with the actual temperature data on the ground?

Read more…

China Electricity Stats For 2017

February 16, 2018
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

We now have provisional electricity statistics from China last year, via the China Energy Portal.

These two graphs sum matters up perfectly:

 

2017-power-prod-growth-v3

2017-el-mix-v2

https://chinaenergyportal.org/en/2017-electricity-energy-statistics/

 

Thermal output has increased by 209 Twh, with much smaller increases in wind and solar. It is clear that renewables cannot alone keep up with increasing demand in China.

Although the China Electricity Council, where the data comes from, don’t split thermal into coal and gas, it still dominates, accounting for 70% of generation.

Solar and wind only supply 6.6%, up from 5.1% in 2016.

It seems likely that renewables will continue to increase their share of electricity generation in the next few years. But if demand continues to grow, it is also highly probable that thermal generation will also increase in absolute terms.

Shock News – Icebreaker Sails Through Ice!

February 15, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

 

h/t Joe Public

 

The Guardian is up to its tricks again!

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An LNG tanker designed for icy conditions has become the first commercial ship to travel the Arctic’s northern sea route in winter.

It marks a milestone in the opening up of Russia’s northern coastline, as thawing polar ice makes industrial development and maritime trade increasingly viable.

The Teekay vessel Eduard Toll set out from South Korea in December for Sabetta terminal in northern Russia, cutting through ice 1.8m thick. Last month, it completed the route, delivering a load of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Montoir, France. Its voyage was captured by the crew in a timelapse video.

Bermuda-based firm Teekay is investing in six ships to serve the Yamal LNG project in northern Russia. A similarly designed vessel owned by Sovcomflot made the same passage last August. This small and growing Arctic-ready fleet can operate independently of icebreaker escorts, which are also in high demand.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/13/shipping-first-as-commercial-tanker-crosses-arctic-sea-route-in-winter

 

There is a very simple reason why the Eduard Toll has managed to sail through the ice without icebreaker assistance. It is an icebreaker itself, as its builders state:

 

image

We are pleased to announce that Teekay LNG Partners first icebreaker LNG newbuilding was launched on Saturday January 21. The vessel, Eduard Toll, is Teekay’s first of six 172,000 cubic meter ARC7 LNG carrier newbuildings to be constructed for the Yamal LNG project. 

http://teekay.com/blog/2017/01/26/launch-teekays-first-icebreaker-lng-carrier/

 

 

sff

http://yamallng.ru/en/project/tankers/

Meanwhile, NSIDC confirm that the coast of Siberia is full up with sea ice.

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

 

Readers may recall that the Eduardo Toll’s sister ship, the Christophe de Margerie, also sailed the Northern Route from Norway to Korea last year, and similar misleading stories appeared at the time, such as this from the BBC.

Given that there are another 14 of these vessels being built, we will no doubt hear the same alarmist nonsense every year!

UK Wind Capacity Is Increasing–But At What Cost?

February 15, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

 image

https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/

 

According to Wind Europe, the self acclaimed “voice of the wind industry”, new wind power capacity of 4270 MW was added in the UK last year. Of this, 1680 MW was offshore, and 2590 MW onshore.

Despite fake claims about how much the cost of wind power has been falling, what are the actual costs of this new capacity?

 

Offshore

The following developments, which all have CfD contracts, started producing power in 2017:

  • Burbo Extension – 258 MW
  • Dudgeon – 402 MW
  • Walney Phase 1 – 330 MW

All three have index linked contracts, currently worth £161.71/Mwh. These are due to be increased for inflation in April.

In addition, 690 MW of capacity has been added by developments which still qualify for ROCs, as they were already in the pipeline when the RO scheme was wound up for new projects.

These schemes are awarded 2 ROCs per Mwh. An ROC is worth £47.22/Mwh this year, so these schemes receive an effective subsidy of £94.44/Mwh.

The current wholesale price of electricity is £45.80/Mwh, so these projects could expect to receive a total payment of £140.24/Mwh.

If we add the CfD and RO projects together, the average price works out at £152.89/Mwh, more than three times the market price.

Onshore

We have not got any official BEIS data for Q4 yet, but it is reasonable to assume that the new capacity added last year still qualifies for ROCs.

Onshore wind farms receive 0.9 ROCs per Mwh, so the subsidy is worth £42.50.

Including the market price earned, they would receive £88.30/Mwh.

 

Remember this when the wind industry brags about how much costs have come down!

Andrew Weaver’s Defamation Case Against Tim Ball Thrown Out By Judge

February 15, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

Breaking news from Principia Scientific International:

 image

After 3-week trial Canadian judge dismisses all charges in the lawsuit brought against Dr. Tim Ball by British Columbia Green Party leader Andrew Weaver. Climate skeptics are hailing the verdict as a key victory over extremists promoting human-caused global warming. Not a peep from the mainstream media!

Speaking to Climate Depot’s Marc Morano, Ball explained:

The judge ruled that Weaver was not defamed by me and dismissed the claim completely. This was after almost seven years and thousands of dollars in legal costs.” But Ball lamented, “There are no media reports and my guess is there won’t be any.”

Professor Andrew Weaver is a champion of Canadian greens and Desmogblog (a site funded by a convicted criminal). View the lawsuit here.

One Down, One to Go!

Dr Ball, a 79-year-old retired climate professor has for decades been a staunch critic of what many see as alarmist junk science peddled by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The Weaver-v-Ball trial is one of the three lawsuits Dr Ball received from the same hotshot libel lawyer, Roger McConchie, on behalf of three prominent members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The most high-profile of the cases being the still outstanding libel suit Dr Ball defends against Michael ‘hockey stick’ Mann.

Over the six years while these cases were running Dr Ball has witnessed relentless and systemic media bias. He recalls:

“At 09:30 on the day the trial started we were told there was no judge or courtroom assigned. Amazingly and incorrectly, that information was reported almost immediately on media claiming the trial was postponed. It wasn’t, because by 11:00 a judge and courtroom were assigned and the trail began at 11:30. The postponement story likely explained why no media attended a single day of the three-week trial. The nature of the case that involves a so-called climate change denier will likely also be ignored.”

A Back Story of Systemic Persecution

The first of three climate lawsuits served on Ball was filed on behalf of Gordon McBean, a former Assistant Deputy Minister at Environment Canada. He chaired the founding meeting of the IPCC in 1985. On the McBean case Ball chose to avoid a legal battle explaining:

My wife and I decided not to fight the McBean case because of the legal cost involved. We simply withdrew the article.

Not surprisingly, alarmists trumpeted a resounding defeat for Ball, who was repeatedly targeted for further personal attacks on his academic credentials and competency to comment on climate matters.

 

 

Read the full story here.

The Great Energy Transition Gathers Momentum–(Or Not!)

February 14, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

The Global Wind Energy Council, the international trade association for the wind power industry, is busy hyping the interests of its members again:

 image

China slows a bit, but Europe and India take up the slack

Brussels, 14 February 2018. The Global Wind Energy Council released its annual market statistics today. The 2017 market remained above 50 GW, with Europe, India and the offshore sector having record years. Chinese installations were down slightly– ‘only’ 19.5 GW – but the rest of the world made up for most of that. Total installations in 2017 were 52,573 MW, bringing the global total to 539,581 MW.

Read more…

Cape Town’s Drought

February 13, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

image

 https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-drought-dayzero/south-africa-declares-drought-a-national-disaster-idUKKBN1FX1BI

 

The drought in South Africa has been hitting the headlines lately, with the climate change bogeyman being wheeled out, as in this Reuters report today:

Running water in the port city of 4 million has been affected by a wider pattern of climate change seen around the country including the Western Cape, where Cape Town is located, the Northern Cape and Eastern Cape provinces.

Supplies have yet to recover from an El Nino-triggered drought that began two years ago and is now raising the risk of a shortage that could hit industrial and agricultural output.

Recent years have been littered with the same scare stories.

We all no doubt recall Tim Flannery’s warnings of permanent drought in Australia just a few years ago. Then came Joe Romm making the same claims about the US South West, not to mention Jerry Brown with California.

Nature usually has a habit of proving these charlatans wrong.

 

But what is the real truth in South Africa?

Tom Winnifrith has been looking into the situation:

 

Channel 4 reporter Lindsey Hilsum could not contain her excitement as she reported on the drought hitting Cape Town. There were a number of factors to blame but Climate Change was repeated many times. Her conclusion was clear, Governments across the world must not wait for climate change to hit them as it had hit the Cape as that would be too late, they must act now. Hmm. Fake news alert! We know Channel 4 prefers pious virtue signalling to hard data analysis but this was extreme.
As it happens Lindsey’s report was filmed earlier in the week and was not live. That was a pity as on Friday it rained in Cape Town and more rain is forecast today. But that is an aside.
First up we might look at how dry the Cape is in historical terms. Luckily we have data from three weather stations in the Cape (Vrugbaar, Rustfontein and Nuweberg) c/o the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and the Department of Water & Sanitation (DWS). Drought conditions cannot be created in just one year so – accepting that 2017 was very dry( the driest since 1933) – it is better to look at four year trailing trends and if we do that we see that the current dry spell is a bit wetter than that ending 2005, is the same as that ending in 1975 and only marginally drier than that ending in 1935, before all those cars and coal fired power stations caused all this global warming.

So why is the Cape only running out of water now? The next set of data ignored by Lindsey is population. Now there is a caveat here in that not all folks use the same amount of water. The blacks in the shanty towns do not have baths and showers so use far less than other folks and the growth in the population of Cape Town is in part, but only in part, down to shanty towns. So what was the population at the height of previous dry spells? I cannot find a 1935 number but in 1946 it was 383,000 having trebled since the turn of the century. By 1973 it was 1.2 million rising ro 2.9 million by 2005 and today it is 3.8 million. In other words demand for water has rocketed.
There is a third factor Lindsey ignored completely – leakage. The infrastructure of water supply in South Africa was put in place by the evil Britishers as part of our Colonial oppression. As all kids are taught today, the Empire was a force for evil and one of the way that we oppressed the poor folks of South Africa was by building a world class water supply system, Christ we were bastards. I feel so fecking guilty. And to show what real bastards we were we built a similar system at the same time back home in Blighty.
Politicians being politicians they the used water rates as another source of revenue and failed for decades to reinvest the proceeds in maintaining the water supply system. Thus by the 1980s leakage rates in both countries were alarming and rising. In the UK the wicked and evil Tories privatised the industry, part of which involved forcing the companies to spend set amounts on repairs and maintenance each year, amounts linked to profits. Guess what? Leakage rates in the UK have fallen by a third to just above 20% and are still falling! That bitch Thatcher and her privatisations she has a lot to answer for.
In South Africa they have been spared the evil Tories and their dastardly schemes and thus water supply is still in the benevolent hands of the state. Thus capital spend has been insufficient to stop leakage rates rising and they are now 35% and still heading North. So more than 1 in three gallons taken from the reservoirs of the Cape never makes it to a tap.
But Lindsey Hilsum and her colleagues at Channel 4 Fake News do not care about real data. This drought is largely down to climate change and Governments need to prepare for that or they will suffer as the Cape is suffering now. It is that simple in the post fact fake news world of Channel 4.

https://www.tomwinnifrith.com/articles/12817/channel-4-news-on-the-drought-in-cape-town-caused-by-climate-change-fake-news

 

The rainfall data he refers to came from Dr Piotr Wolski, a researcher with the University of Cape Town’s Climate System Analysis Group. He wrote an account for News24 in South Africa, which can be read here.

 

f62af60190a44bb69336453c3fac9df0

e75b09a49d344ec082404180e92cba89

https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/how-severe-is-cape-towns-drought-a-detailed-look-at-the-data-20180123

 

As both Winnifrith and Wolski point out, the 4-year totals are not unprecedented.

 

Why 4 years? Isn’t this just cherry picking?  Well, the South Africa Weather Service itself made a point of analysing 4 and 6-year totals, when it published its own report on the drought in 2016:

 

The longest period of consecutive years where the annual total rainfall was below the period average of 608 mm per annum, was the 6 years starting in 1944. If an annual average is calculated for this 6-year period, it is 544 mm.

image

The next longest period where the annual total rainfall was below the period average of 608 mm per annum, were 2 periods of 4 consecutive years each.

The first period started in 1930 and the second period started in 2012.

image

The annual average rainfall per annum for the 4 years 1930 – 1933 is 519 mm. The annual average rainfall per annum for the 4 years 2012 – 2015 is 544 mm.

Although the annual total rainfall for South Africa for the 12 months Jan – Dec 2015, was the lowest annual total since 1904, the 4-year period 1930 – 1933 might still be the driest continuous period experienced in South Africa.

http://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/sa-rainfall-in-2015-the-lowest-on-record—saws

Certainly, as far as hydrological droughts go, a multi-year one is always much more severe.

 

I have obtained the up to date numbers from the SAWS. These reveal that rainfall in 2016 and 2017 was bang on the long term average.

In other words, 1930 to 1933 remains by a long way the driest 4-year period. And 1944 to 1949 the driest 6-year one.

 

image

 

There is one more factor we need to take into account before we blame everything on climate change – El Nino.

As Dr Mathieu Rouault of the University of Cape Town explains, a major cause of the latest drought has been El Nino. He says ““8 out of 10 of the worst droughts in the past 100 years happened during El Niño”

Given the record El Nino of 2015/16 that we have just experienced, it is little wonder that Cape Town is in the middle of a severe drought. (Needless to say, he also blames climate change!).

Despite the record dry year of 2015, the above chart offers no evidence of a long term decline in South African rainfall.

But I doubt you will hear that on Channel 4 News.

Two Feet Of Sea Level Rise By 2100 Claims Latest Paper

February 13, 2018
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Cheshire Red

 

Today’s junk science comes from the Guardian (polar bear and all!):

 

image

Melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are speeding up the already fast pace of sea level rise, new satellite data shows.

At the current rate, the world’s oceans will be on average at least 60cm (2ft) higher by the end of the century, according to research published in Monday’s Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences.

Based on 25 years of satellite data, however, the research shows that the pace has quickened. It confirms scientists’ computer simulations and is in line with predictions from the UN, which releases regular climate change reports.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/13/melting-ice-sheets-are-hastening-sea-level-rise-satellite-data-confirms

 

This is the paper referred to:

Read more…

Britain’s Energy Security Is At Risk–But It’s Not From Putin

February 13, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Dave Ward

From GWPF:

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Britain’s electricity market is increasingly slanted in favour of importing more electricity from Europe and against securing investment in new power plants at home. Billions of pounds of domestic energy plant investment have consequently been put at risk, which will undermine the future security of supply and risk price rises.

It is important to appreciate our growing reliance on imported electricity, as well as the fact that current planning will quadruple this dependency with consequences for prices, competition and security of supply. A new Centre for Policy Studies paper, ‘The Hidden Wiring’, follows months of research into proposals for more undersea cables to import electricity, called interconnectors, and details their negative impact on Britain’s electricity market.

Power imports from Europe increased by 52 per cent in the three years to 2016, and they are set to surge as more interconnectors are planned. Back in 2012, imports were expected to account for just six terawatt hours (TWh) of supply per year in 2030. But four years later, the projection has radically changed. The 2016 forecast sees Britain’s electricity imports rising from 21 TWh today, to a peak of 77 TWh in 2025. That’s close to a fifth of supply.

Importing electricity can bring advantages – ranging from price to abundant availability – but crucially these depend on a series of important factors. Our research shows that it is increasingly unlikely there will be much spare electricity in Europe to send to the UK in the future.

The truth is that Britain’s rising electricity imports are, in the short term, an easy way out of failed energy policies that stretch back over a generation. Back in 2012, the coalition had the right plans for a new fleet of domestic gas-fired plants that would be easy to switch on and off to accommodate the sporadic nature of weather dependent renewable supplies and boost security of supply. It estimated that Britain would need 26 GW of additional gas generation capacity by 2030 to plug any potential gap left by cloudy, windless days and to replace the electricity output from closing older coal, oil and nuclear plants. On current trends, however, the UK is on track to build just 12GW by 2030. This goes some way to explain the panicked dash to build interconnectors to import power.

Declining electricity supplies in Europe add to the problem. Both France and Germany are reducing their reliance on nuclear power (in Germany’s case, to zero by 2022) without any clear policy for replacements. Coupled with this is EU policy to combat climate change and air pollution; this will accelerate the shutdown of generating capacity across the continent. Europe still generates considerable electricity from coal and these plants are increasingly vulnerable to new legislation and political factors. A likely condition of Angela Merkel’s new coalition will be the closure of Germany’s dirtier coal plants. Holland is similarly keen to close all its coal plants over time with plans for a new carbon tax.

All of this means that importing power is likely to get more expensive, not less. And yet the way in which Britain allocates access for imports to the electricity grid continues to discourage building new gas plants as imports enjoy clear market benefits. This preferential access is undermining the investment case for new power plants in the UK through the Capacity Market, which holds its next auction for future power next week.

Interconnectors enjoy an unfair competitiveness boost too, because electricity generators in Europe don’t have to contend with Britain’s high carbon price floor tax – unlike UK generators. This means they can undercut British generators even if their power comes from dirty coal-fired capacity in Holland or Germany. So instead of cutting carbon emissions, the UK is in some cases simply offshoring it. Foreign supplies also don’t pay the transmission charges faced by UK generators.

Perhaps inadvertently, the Defence Secretary has highlighted both the vulnerability and growth of interconnectors. While they are particularly susceptible to accidents – such as in 2016 when a ship in the English Channel dragged its anchor over the link with France and halved supplies for months – their growth also undermines the investment case for vital new power stations at home, not to mention any potential for sabotage.

Energy security is a central plinth of national security. The Defence Secretary is right to flag up the risks for the UK as it becomes more dependent on imported power, but the priority must now be for energy ministers to explain why they are pushing these policies and why they think it is in Britain’s national, economic and security interest.

https://www.thegwpf.com/uk-defense-secretary-is-right-britains-energy-security-is-threatened-by-russia/

Personally I don’t go along with all of this obsession about a threat from Russia.

But it does give us the chance to take a closer look at a very real threat to our energy security which is looming ever closer.

This is the CPS paper mentioned in the GWPF article:

Read more…