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UK Energy Projections & Costs

May 29, 2015

By Paul Homewood 

 

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I mentioned a few weeks ago that I had asked DECC for a list of power stations that were due to close in the next few years in the UK. As they previously intimated, they have decided not to release this information because of commercial confidentiality, which I can appreciate.

However, they have given me the information which I really wanted anyway, which is the overall assumptions they have made for planning purposes. This is part of their “Updated Energy & Emissions Projections 2014”, published last September. I would stress that this is not some secret document, but, as far as I know, it has not been widely reported on or analysed in the media.

 

The projections contain a range of scenarios, but I will concentrate on the “Reference Scenario”, which is based on central estimates of growth and fossil fuel prices.

 

Let’s start by looking at electrical generating capacity. The projections give annual figures up to 2035, but for clarity I am just showing the figures for 2014 and 2030.

 

Read more…

Yes, The Ocean Has Warmed; No, It’s Not Global Warming

May 28, 2015
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By Paul Homewood  

 

h/t dennisambler    

 

 

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http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/ocean.html

 

I have long maintained that, because of their enormous heat capacity , any effect of GHG on ocean temperatures would be so small as to be unmeasurable in the short term. The idea that the missing heat has been hiding there is simply unscientific.

It is also the case that it is the oceans which drive atmospheric temperatures, not the reverse.

It turns out that one of the leading oceanographers of recent times, the late Dr Robert E Stevenson came to the same conclusions, but with the help of real science! In 2000, a year before he sadly died, Stevenson wrote this essay for 21st Century Science & Technology Magazine, “Yes, the Ocean Has Warmed; No, It’s Not ‘Global Warming’. Although quite long, it is very readable and gives a thorough understanding of basic oceanic processes.

 

Contrary to recent press reports that the oceans hold the still-undetected global atmospheric warming predicted by climate models, ocean warming occurs in 100-year cycles, independent of both radiative and human influences.

At a press conference in Washington, D.C., on March 24, 2000, Dr. James Baker, Administrator of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), announced that since the late 1940s, there “has been warming to a depth of nearly 10,000 feet in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans.” “In each ocean basin, substantial temperature changes are occurring at much deeper depths than we previously thought,” Dr. Baker said, as indicated by research conducted at NOAA’s Ocean Climate Laboratory. He was referring to a paper published in Science magazine that day, prepared by Sydney Levitus, John Antonov, Timothy Boyer, and Cathy Stephens, of the NOAA Center.

For 15 years, modellers have tried to explain their lack of success in predicting global warming. The climate models had predicted a global temperature increase of 1.5°C by the year 2000, six times more than that which has taken place. Not discouraged, the modellers argue that the heat generated by their claimed “greenhouse warming effect” is being stored in the deep oceans, and that it will eventually come back to haunt us. They’ve needed such a boost to prop up the man-induced greenhouse warming theory, but have had no observational evidence to support it. The Levitus, et al. article is now cited as the needed support.

Science news writer Richard A. Kerr, in his “promo” article to get everyone excited about the new NOAA paper, asserts that “The ocean-induced delay in global warming also suggests to some climatologists that future temperature increases will be toward the top end of the models’ range of prediction.”

To complete the surge of enthusiasm, Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, argues: “Now the ocean-warming data imply that climate sensitivity [to the greenhouse effect] is not at the low end of the spectrum.” He, and some others of United Nations fame, lean toward a climate sensitivity of about 3°C or a bit higher, by the end of the century—the next century, that is.

Bob Stevenson
Oceanographer Bob Stevenson, on tour with the B-17G, “Sentimental Journey” of the Confederate Air Force, in Pocatello, Idaho, August 1998. Dr. Stevenson was an aerial navigator in World War II and flew from England in B-17s with the U.S. 8th Air Force.

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Delusional Nonsense From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

May 28, 2015
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By Paul Homewood 

 

h/t Paul2

 

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11633745/Fossil-industry-faces-a-perfect-political-and-technological-storm.html

 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard often writes about the forthcoming demise of fossil fuels, but he has really excelled himself this time, with such delusional reporting that about the only thing he has got right is his name.

 

The political noose is tightening on the global fossil fuel industry. It is a fair bet that world leaders will agree this year to impose a draconian “tax” on carbon emissions that entirely changes the financial calculus for coal, oil, and gas, and may ultimately devalue much of their asset base to zero.

The International Monetary Fund has let off the first thunder-clap. An astonishing report – blandly titled "How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies" – alleges that the fossil nexus enjoys hidden support worth 6.5pc of world GDP.

This will amount to $5.7 trillion in 2015, mostly due to environmental costs and damage to health, and mostly stemming from coal. The World Health Organisation – also on cue – has sharply revised up its estimates of early deaths from fine particulates and sulphur dioxide from coal plants.

The killer point is that this architecture of subsidy is a "drag on economic growth" as well as being a transfer from poor to rich. It pushes up tax rates and crowds out more productive investment. The world would be richer – and more dynamic – if the burning of fossils was priced properly.

Read more…

Is The AMO Beginning To Turn Cold?

May 28, 2015
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By Paul Homewood 

 

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https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/05/27/evidence-is-mounting-oceans-make-climate/

 

New study finds that the AMO may be beginning to turn cold. 

 

Reposted from Ron Clutz:

 

A new study, by scientists from the University of Southampton and National Oceanography Centre (NOC), implies that the global climate is on the verge of broad-scale change that could last for a number of decades. This new climatic phase could be half a degree cooler.

The change to the new set of climatic conditions is associated with a cooling of the Atlantic, and is likely to bring drier summers in Britain and Ireland, accelerated sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States, and drought in the developing countries of the Sahel region. Since this new climatic phase could be half a degree cooler, it may well offer a brief reprise from the rise of global temperatures, as well as resulting in fewer hurricanes hitting the United States.

The study, published in Nature, proves that ocean circulation is the link between weather and decadal scale climatic change. It is based on observational evidence of the link between ocean circulation and the decadal variability of sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.

Lead author Dr Gerard McCarthy, from the NOC, said: “Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic vary between warm and cold over time-scales of many decades. These variations have been shown to influence temperature, rainfall, drought and even the frequency of hurricanes in many regions of the world. This decadal variability, called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences.”

 

 

The strength of ocean currents has been measured by a network of sensors, called the RAPID array, which have been collecting data on the flow rate of the Atlantic meridonal overturning circulation (AMOC) for a decade.

Dr David Smeed, from the NOC and lead scientist of the RAPID project, adds: “The observations of AMOC from the RAPID array, over the past ten years, show that it is declining. As a result, we expect the AMO is moving to a negative phase, which will result in cooler surface waters. This is consistent with observations of temperature in the North Atlantic.”

 

Read the rest here.

 

This study reminds us that it is the oceans which dominate the Earth’s climate over decadal timescales. The AMO may well remain in its warm phase for a few more years yet, but it is the direction of travel that matters most, as I have repeatedly pointed out.

Once it starts dropping, NH temperatures will quickly follow, just as they did in the 1960’s and 70’s.

 

 

tsgcos.corr.140.172.12.70.146.16.28.23

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/tsanalysis.pl?tstype1=91&tstype2=0&year1=1895&year2=&itypea=0&axistype=0&anom=0&plotstyle=0&climo1=&climo2=&y1=&y2=&y21=&y22=&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=1&mon1=0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

Who Is Spreading Lies About Houston’s “Unprecedented Flooding”?

May 27, 2015

By Paul Homewood 

 

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http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/houston-texas-hit-unprecedented-flooding-seven-states-risk-n364456

 

Steve Goddard has been exposing the media lies about recent floods in Houston, but I’ll add my twopennorth anyway! 

 

Read more…

Sea Ice Dynamics

May 27, 2015

By Paul Homewood  

 

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https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/05/26/climate-on-ice-ocean-ice-dynamics/

 

Ron Clutz has an informative post about sea ice dynamics:

 

When white men started to explore the north of America, they first encountered the Crees. Hudson Bay posts were established to trade goods for pelts, especially the beavers used for making those tall hats worn by British ceremonial guards.

The Crees told the whites that further on toward the Arctic Circle there were others they called “eskimos”. The Cree word means “eaters of raw meat” and it is derogatory. The Inuit (as they call themselves) were found to have dozens of words for snow, a necessary vocabulary for surviving in the Arctic world.

A recent lexicon of sea ice terminology in Nunavik (Appendix A of the collective work Siku: Knowing our Ice, 2008) comprises no fewer than 93 different words. These include general appellations such as siku, but also terms as specialized as qautsaulittuq, ice that breaks after its strength has been tested with a harpoon; kiviniq, a depression in shore ice caused by the weight of the water that passed over and accumulated on its surface during the tide; or iniruvik, ice that cracked because of tide changes and that the cold weather refroze.

http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/inuit-words-for-snow-and-ice/

With such complexity of ice conditions, we must recognize that any general understanding of ocean-ice dynamics will not be descriptive of all micro-scale effects on local or regional circumstances.

 

 

 

Read the rest here.

Stealing Money From Consumers Adds “Value To The Economy” – In Renewable Fantasy Land

May 26, 2015

By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.renewableuk.com/en/news/renewableuk-news.cfm/onshore-wind-industry-adds-906-million-a-year-to-uk-economy

 

The onshore wind industry in the UK is beginning to squeal like a pig at the prospect of having the taps turned off in its obscene subsidies. Even before the election they were claiming :

The British onshore wind energy industry is adding over £900 million a year to the national economy, so the benefits to the UK are clear to see. This report also shows that £7 of every £10 spent on onshore wind projects is invested here in the UK. Onshore wind powers local economies, bringing £199 million of investment into the local communities that host wind farms and creating jobs across the supply chain. The industry is helping to propel Britain to a brighter, cleaner and more secure future – onshore wind is already the lowest cost of all low carbon options and is set to become the least cost form of all electricity within the next five years.

Despite these facts, onshore wind projects are under threat from misguided Tory and UKIP policies aimed at stifling their development, blatantly disregarding rational economic evidence and consistently high levels of public support.”

 

The assurance that they will need no subsidies within the next five years, just as long as we continue subsidising them just a little bit longer, is frankly pathetic. It is akin to a junkie promising that he will stop taking drugs tomorrow just as long as you give him one more shot today.

On the contrary, continually extending subsidies will act as a disincentive to the wind industry to become competitive.

 

But what about this £900 million a year that they are adding to the national economy?

Read more…

Turkey To Double Coal Power

May 26, 2015
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By Paul Homewood 

 

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http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2015/05/turkey-plans-doubling-of-coal-fired-power-capacity-by-2020.html?eid=296412419&bid=1079512

 

From PEI:

 

The Turkish government is planning to double its coal power capacity over the next four years, making it the country with the world’s third largest investment in the fossil fuel.
Targets for electricity generation from domestic coal (lignite + hard coal) are set for 60,000 MW until the end of 2019.

For 2014, electricity produced from domestic coal/lignite is 34,051 MW. This is expected to increase to 60,000 MW by 2019, almost double the generation in four years. Plans for 80 new plants will more than quadruple the number of coal-fired power plants from the 19 in 2012.

 
Environmental bodies are lobbying the EU to leverage influence to get Ankara to promote more sustainable development and limit the country’s emissions.

Read more…

You Could Not Make It Up!! (But They Can)

May 25, 2015
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By Paul Homewood  

 

forbes

 

From the “Science is Settled Department”. 

 

 

In 2008, they found that sea level rise between 2003 and 2008 had slowed down, compared to 1993-2003. Furthermore, the authors were confident that thermal expansion had stopped and that glacial melting accounted for all of the rise. 

 

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http://media.eurekalert.org/aaasnewsroom/2009/FIL_000000000353/Sea%20Level_%20review_Cras2a%202766.pdf

 

 

Fast forward to this year, and we find that the rate of rise previously assumed for 1993-2003 had been overstated, and that when corrected the new figures fit the models for glacial melt and thermal expansion!

 

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http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2635.html

 

 

Talk about making it up as you go along!!

Nuclear Power Down The Loire

May 24, 2015

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I have cycled around the Loire twice now, and can honestly say I have not seen a single wind turbine. There are plenty in the plainer country of northern France, but it seems they won’t allow them in the scenic areas.

There are however at least two nuclear plants. Incl the one pictured above, St Laurent des Eaux.
It is said to produce 12.3 TWh pa, about the same as all the UK’s onshore turbines put together.

Perhaps the dishonest Roger Harrabin would like to borrow the picture to pretend that it emits nasty pollution.