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El Nino & Arctic Warming In the 1930s

April 4, 2020
tags:

By Paul Homewood

Just following up on Joe Bastardi’s article yesterday about El Ninos and Arctic warming, it is worth looking at longer term trends.

Below is the chart of the MEI, with red indicating El Ninos and blue La Ninas.:

 

 

Extended Multivariate ENSO Index

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/

 

As we can see, the period 1925 to 1945 was dominated by powerful El Ninos. This of course was also the time of great warming in the Arctic, known as “The Warming in The North”, when temperatures across much of the Arctic were as high as they are now.

During the 1950s, a much colder climate took over in the Arctic, until it became warmer again in the 90s. This was also a period when La Ninas dominated.

Coincidence?

The climate in the Arctic is also very well correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO):

 

tsgcos.corr.81.146.41.35.94.10.48.39

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/tsanalysis.pl?tstype1=91&tstype2=0&year1=&year2=&itypea=0&axistype=0&anom=0&plotstyle=1&climo1=&climo2=&y1=&y2=&y21=&y22=&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

 

Both of the warming regimes were marked by the inflow of warmer Atlantic waters, which also would have had the effect described by Joe Bastardi, ie the introduction of moist air into the Arctic.

Whether the AMO supplemented the effect of super El Ninos, or whether in fact the two oceanic phenomena are interconnected remains to be seen.

Germany Reaching the Upper Limit of Coronavirus Testing Capacity

April 4, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 Climate matters have certainly been pushed into the background, now that people have real problems to worry about.

I spotted this article in Der Spiegel, which might generate some discussion.

Mass coronavirus testing seems to be the current obsession of the self appointed experts in the media, but it does not appear to be the panacea in Germany which we have been led to believe:

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When Sascha Stoltenow held a training course back in March, the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, had already made an appearance in his life. The only problem was that Stoltenow didn’t know it yet.

Four days later, back in his hometown of Wiesbaden, the communications consultant learned that the Hamburg Academy had to be closed temporarily because someone there had tested positive for the virus. One phone call later, Stoltenow realized: "I had direct contact with the infected person."

The next day, the 50-year-old Stoltenow felt a "slight scratching" on his tongue and the roof of his mouth. He called the medical hotline 116 117 and was told go to Frankfurt to undergo a virus test. At first, the doctor there didn’t want to test him, Stoltenow recalls. "She thought the symptoms were too mild."

But he was able to convince the doctor to perform the test anyway. "Luckily," he says. The result was supposed to be available the next day, but Stoltenow didn’t hear back. Another day went by and he eventually called the local health department. "I was told they didn’t have a file on me." Stoltenow suspected the test hadn’t been processed and stayed home, just in case. Then he heard about two other people who had attended the conference in Hamburg whose tests had come back negative. "That’s when I stopped quarantining."

It wasn’t until eight days after being tested that Stoltenow received the news: His results were positive. The health department had apparently misfiled his results. The 50-year-old immediately went into quarantine with his entire family. But there was a problem: Before he discovered he was positive, he had attended a university event and had been in contact with around 150 people, all of whom could theoretically have been infected by him.

There are countless reports like this one. They involve constantly busy telephone hotlines, testing being either refused or postponed and people waiting days for their test results — if they hear back at all.

Read more…

Extra warm U.S. winter had nature’s thumbprint on it–Joe Bastardi

April 3, 2020

By Paul Homewood

   

Joe Bastardi explains why this winter has been so mild in the US, but also across N Europe, at CFACT:

 image

I want you to read this article:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/warm-winter-sets-records-across-america/2916581001/

Two points:

1) I will make the case for why such winters like this happen

2) I will point out that nowhere in this article did the massive natural physical drivers that far outweigh the effect of CO2, which is only .041% of the atmosphere. Pointedly, of which man is only responsible for  25% and the US only 15% of that total.

I am not going to waste time attacking here, except to say this kind of one-sided journalism and the fact that nowhere did anyone show what I am about to reveal to you, should raise questions of any objective person.

Basically the rules of the game are, if its warm like this winter, its climate change, if it is cold, its climate change. It is typical of everyone gets a trophy in that any answer even if opposite, means you get credit.

I won’t copy the whole article as it is a bit technical, but it can be seen here. However these are the main points Joe raises, starting with the role of El Nino and water vapour:

Read more…

Extra warm U.S. winter had nature’s thumbprint on it–Joe Bastardi

April 3, 2020

By Paul Homewood

   

Joe Bastardi explains why this winter has been so mild in the US, but also across N Europe, at CFACT:

 image

I want you to read this article:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/warm-winter-sets-records-across-america/2916581001/

Two points:

1) I will make the case for why such winters like this happen

2) I will point out that nowhere in this article did the massive natural physical drivers that far outweigh the effect of CO2, which is only .041% of the atmosphere. Pointedly, of which man is only responsible for  25% and the US only 15% of that total.

I am not going to waste time attacking here, except to say this kind of one-sided journalism and the fact that nowhere did anyone show what I am about to reveal to you, should raise questions of any objective person.

Basically the rules of the game are, if its warm like this winter, its climate change, if it is cold, its climate change. It is typical of everyone gets a trophy in that any answer even if opposite, means you get credit.

I won’t copy the whole article as it is a bit technical, but it can be seen here. However these are the main points Joe raises, starting with the role of El Nino and water vapour:

Read more…

Puff Piece For Tesla Ignores The Real Truth

April 2, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

 image

Elon Musk owned Tesla installed a battery farm in South Australia in 2017 and has since helped residents save $116 million in energy costs, Bloomberg reports.

The company installed the world’s biggest lithium-ion batter to help reduce the risk of blackouts as the country moved to renewable power generation.

Operating via the Hornsdale Power Reserve, it has helped to restore stability to the network and lower the costs of running the power grid, according to reports.

Read more…

Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data

April 2, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

 

Global warming theory states that a warmer climate should lead to increasing water vapour in the atmosphere, and thus to more floods and droughts.

The actual data however does not agree.

 image

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for each degree of global warming, the amount of water vapour in the air should increase by about 6-7%. As with so many things the IPCC talks about, this small change is supposed to lead to calamity. That’s because increasing water vapour is supposed to lead to “intensification of the hydrological cycle”, in other words floods and droughts.

Demetris Koutsoyiannis, a hydrologist at the National Technical University of Athens, has taken it upon himself to undertake a major review of the scientific data to see what evidence there is for this actually happening in practice. His findings, currently up for open peer review at the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,[i] make for uncomfortable reading for the IPCC and its fellow-travellers on the bandwagon of doom.

It seems, for example, that although relative humidity is supposed to stay constant under global warming, it is actually falling. Dew points are supposed to be increasing, but mostly they are not; in particular there appears to be little or no change in equatorial regions, where the largest share of evaporation of water from the oceans takes place. If we’re not seeing change there, then increased flooding is off the agenda.

And Koutsoyiannis finds that the amount of water vapour in the air is increasing at roughly one third of the IPCC’s predicted rate. If the rate of water vapour increase really is so low, then by the time we hit the (in)famous two-degree target for global warming, we’ll still only have experienced a 4% increase, which as Koutsoyiannis points out is negligible given the normal variability of hydrological cycles. Where are the deluges and floods going to come from?

It doesn’t end there either. There are lots of other ways in which intensification of the hydrological cycle might show up. You can measure the amount of water vapour in columns of the atmosphere. That should be increasing with global warming too, right? Koutsoyiannis finds no trend. Average rainfall across the planet should increase too – the IPCC says by 1-3% per degree of global warming. The problem with this claim is that it’s within the “noise” of normal variability anyway; no surprise then that Koutsoyiannis sees no meaningful trends in the data. The limited data on evaporation are telling the same story (or lack of one) too.

What about extremes of rainfall? Koutsoyannis reviews a variety of measures: changes in daily maxima, days with rainfall over a threshold and so on, he looks on land and he looks at sea. And he draws a blank everywhere.

As well as being an eminent scientist, Koutosoyiannis also has a deep interest in the scientific knowledge and practice of the ancient world, and this has coloured his view of the climate scare. As he says in his conclusions, the small changes that are exciting climate scientists today would not even have been discussed by ancient engineers, who would have seen them as just noise in the ever-changing patterns of hydrological cycles. Similarly, he points out that such small changes are of no interest to those making practical decisions about flood protection and water storage. And he wonders whether, with the data refuting the climatologists’ predictions so clearly, it isn’t time that hydrologists shifted their attention away from prophecies of doom, and back onto making a real contribution to people’s lives.

You can see his point.

https://www.thegwpf.com/bandwagon-of-doom-washed-away-by-tidal-wave-of-data/

Nightingales at risk due to shorter wings caused by climate crisis

April 2, 2020
tags:

By Paul Homewood

No, it was not an April Fools story after all!

 image

The nightingale was feted by John Keats as a “light-winged Dryad of the trees”. But the much-celebrated small bird with a beautiful song may be increasingly endangered because its wings are getting shorter.

Read more…

Climate Crisis RIP

April 2, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

Well worth reading Pierre Gosselin’s opinion piece on how COVID-19 has put the climate scare into perspective:

 image

https://notrickszone.com/2020/04/01/climate-crisis-rip-people-will-be-in-no-mood-to-stay-in-panic-mode-after-covid-19-scare-ends/

All-Electric Tornadoes Now A Reality

April 1, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

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The RAF have been secretly developing all-electric Tornadoes for the last two years. The big problem, as with electric cars, has been the limited range, but this has now seemingly been overcome.

An eagle eyed observer has taken this picture of a KFC135 loaded with 3,756 Tesla Powerwall batteries over RAF Marham carrying out the first In-the-Air recharge mission via specially-designed USB cables.

Announcing the successful trial, Air Commodore A M P Watt reported only one problem. Sometimes the Tornadoes had to fly upside down to plug the USBs in.

Government’s decarbonising transport plan: a good time to bury bad news?

March 31, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t AC Osborn

 

 

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The Department for Transport (DfT) has launched a consultation paper on the future of UK transport, which calls for a major shift out of cars into cycling, walking and buses, and "using cars differently in future", but hasn’t told anyone about it.

Read more…