By Paul Homewood
The Turkish government is planning to double its coal power capacity over the next four years, making it the country with the world’s third largest investment in the fossil fuel.
Targets for electricity generation from domestic coal (lignite + hard coal) are set for 60,000 MW until the end of 2019.
For 2014, electricity produced from domestic coal/lignite is 34,051 MW. This is expected to increase to 60,000 MW by 2019, almost double the generation in four years. Plans for 80 new plants will more than quadruple the number of coal-fired power plants from the 19 in 2012.
Environmental bodies are lobbying the EU to leverage influence to get Ankara to promote more sustainable development and limit the country’s emissions.
By Paul Homewood
From the “Science is Settled Department”.
In 2008, they found that sea level rise between 2003 and 2008 had slowed down, compared to 1993-2003. Furthermore, the authors were confident that thermal expansion had stopped and that glacial melting accounted for all of the rise.
Fast forward to this year, and we find that the rate of rise previously assumed for 1993-2003 had been overstated, and that when corrected the new figures fit the models for glacial melt and thermal expansion!
Talk about making it up as you go along!!
I have cycled around the Loire twice now, and can honestly say I have not seen a single wind turbine. There are plenty in the plainer country of northern France, but it seems they won’t allow them in the scenic areas.
There are however at least two nuclear plants. Incl the one pictured above, St Laurent des Eaux.
It is said to produce 12.3 TWh pa, about the same as all the UK’s onshore turbines put together.
Perhaps the dishonest Roger Harrabin would like to borrow the picture to pretend that it emits nasty pollution.
By Paul Homewood
The transition to renewable power generation is accelerating closures of coal and gas-fired power generation plants at a quicker rate than expected.
That’s the conclusions drawn by investment bank UBS, who have produced a report on the subject.
According to UBS, policymakers may have to take measures to prevent widespread bankruptcies in the European electricity market.
According to their data, some 70 GW of coal and gas-fired power generation shut-downs have occurred in the last five years, and the pace is increasing, according to the analysis.
The report also identifies a further 24 GW of thermal plant to be under threat of closure over the next two years.
The data compiled shows that nearly half of the remaining 260 GW of coal- and gas-fired generation in Europe is cash-flow negative, meaning they do not earn enough money to cover basic costs.
UBS says European policy makers may have to agree to offer a subsidy to the fossil fuel generators, in the form of capacity payments, or similar, to ensure that the generators earn enough money to stay on line, but such a move has drawn fierce opposition.
UBS says the cost of this can be relatively small, and may add only 0.2 per cent to prices, or a total cost of just over €1 billion per annum.
It really did not take a genius to see this one coming. A simpleton would have realised that thermal plants were never going to be economic when faced with intermittent working and subsidised renewables.
No doubt some of the older plants will carry on limping along, with most of their depreciation already paid off. But the real problem is that there is little incentive to build the new gas capacity needed to back up unreliable renewables when most of the coal capacity is shut down.
”UBS says European policy makers may have to agree to offer a subsidy to the fossil fuel generators, in the form of capacity payments, or similar, to ensure that the generators earn enough money to stay on line, but such a move has drawn fierce opposition.”
I wish they would stop referring to these as subsidies. This is the sort of nonsense that Greenpeace and the BBC would spout.
It is not a subsidy. It is payment for a service, viz keeping capacity on line for when it might be needed.
By Paul Homewood
Thorshavn, Faroe Islands
In 2003, two proper scientists wrote a paper on the climate of the Faroe Islands, which lie between Iceland and Norway.
They published this graph of air temperatures at the capital Torshavn.
So we find confirmation of the 1925-40 warm period, and that the recent temperature rise is no more than a natural recovery from the colder 1950-80 interval.
Of course, temperatures may have risen since 2003, but the raw GISS data shows otherwise.
Below is their graph based on the raw GHCN V2 temperatures, as they appeared in 2011. (The warmest year was 2003 itself).
Now, you can probably guess where we are going here!
This post is meant to generate discussion about CCS technology.
I don’t necessary have all the answers, but will pose some questions.
Let’s start with some (factual?) assumptions:
1) Coal power stations emit a certain amount of toxins, even with the best scrubbing technology.
2) Carbon storage, CCS, if it is ever developed commercially, will use more coal to produce 1MWh of electricity. (Presumably this is the energy needed to pump the CO2 away?)
Given these assumptions then, how can CCS ever be justified for coal, or for that matter gas, if it only succeeds in emission of more toxins, the real pollution?
Any facts and figures would be good.
By Paul Homewood
Hollywood and global-warming panic have always been a natural match. After all, who can tell you better to cut back on your wasteful ways better than a high-flying multi-millionaire movie star with the carbon footprint of a Tyrannosaurus Rex?
It’s never mattered that the stars have all the scientific expertise of Pee Wee Herman. They’re just so good-looking and famous, who cares? PBS broadcast a ten-hour series in 1990 entitled Race to Save the Planet. The show’s host was Meryl Streep, who proclaimed: "By the year 2000…the Earth’s climate will be warmer than it’s been in over 100,000 years. If we don’t do something, there will be enormous calamities in a very short time."
It’s bad enough that they don’t know what they’re talking about. It’s worse that they’re sheer hypocrites while preaching their nonsense. A private jet burns as much fuel in an hour as a car does in a year. The 48,000-pound Gulfstream G550, which can fly from Chicago to Rome with 15 passengers, burns through more than 400 gallons of fuel per hour.
Exhibit A is Leonardo DiCaprio, who lectures "If we don’t act together, we will surely perish." Radar Online reported in April that DiCaprio boarded a private jet six different times within six weeks last year. But the charade continues. A partnership between DiCaprio and Netflix was announced in March to create yet another series of propagandist environmental documentaries.
The Media Research Center has a new report on "Climate Hypocrites and the Media That Love Them." Take Julia Roberts, who recently made a video for Conservation International playing a big role: "Some call me nature. Others call me `Mother Nature’ I’ve been here for over four and a half billion years. 22,500 times longer than you. I don’t really need people, but people need me. Yes, your future depends on me. When I thrive, you thrive. When I falter, you falter. Or worse. But I’ve been here for eons. I have fed species greater than you, and I have starved species greater than you."
The loathing of the human race is a constant green theme. But it’s not hard to find photos of Roberts climbing in and out of private jets. In fact, for a while she even co-owned a private jet.
By Paul Homewood
When NASA reported that Antarctic sea ice had reached a record maximum last September, they inevitably tried to downplay it.
Sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached a new record high extent this year, covering more of the southern oceans than it has since scientists began a long-term satellite record to map sea ice extent in the late 1970s. The upward trend in the Antarctic, however, is only about a third of the magnitude of the rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.
The new Antarctic sea ice record reflects the diversity and complexity of Earth’s environments, said NASA researchers. Claire Parkinson, a senior scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, has referred to changes in sea ice coverage as a microcosm of global climate change. Just as the temperatures in some regions of the planet are colder than average, even in our warming world, Antarctic sea ice has been increasing and bucking the overall trend of ice loss.
“The planet as a whole is doing what was expected in terms of warming. Sea ice as a whole is decreasing as expected, but just like with global warming, not every location with sea ice will have a downward trend in ice extent,” Parkinson said.
As we know, the truth is far from what Ms Parkinson would like us to believe.
By Paul Homewood
I looked at temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula last week, and thought it worthwhile re-posting this analysis I did last August:
It is commonly known that the Antarctic Peninsula has seen substantial warming in the last few decades. Jim Steele wrote a guest post for WUWT a couple of days ago, “The Greatest Climate Myths of All”, which contained these observations about Antarctica:
As seen in NASA’s map of regional warming, the Antarctic Peninsula is another unusual “hotspot”, but relative to other climate dynamics, the contribution from CO2 is again not readily apparent. Stronger winds from the positive phase of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) increased regional temperatures without adding heat via 2 mechanisms.
First stronger winds from the north reduced sea ice extent by inhibiting the expansion of sea ice along the western Antarctic Peninsula and Amundsen Sea. As in the Arctic, more open water allows larger amounts of stored heat to escape, dramatically raising winter temperatures. Accordingly, during the summer when sea ice is normally absent, there is no steep warming trend.
The eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula behaves in a contrary manner. There sea ice was not reduced and surface temperatures average 5 to 10° cooler, and the steep winter warming trend was not observed. However there was a significant summer warming trend. Previously during the negative phase of the AAO, weaker winds are typically forced to go around the mountainous peninsula. However the positive AAO generated a wind regime that moved up and over the mountains, creating anomalous foehn storms on the eastern side of the peninsula. As the winds descend, temperatures adiabatically rise 10 to 20 degrees or more due to changes in pressure without any additional heat.
I cannot comment on the science behind this, but I can show how the actual temperature records support what Jim says.
By Paul Homewood
This 2011 paper found that temperatures had dropped by 1.7C during the two millenia prior to 1700 CE in the West Antarctic.
Perhaps current temperatures there are not quite so “unprecedented”.
A surface cooling of ∼1.7°C occurred over the ∼two millennia prior to ∼1700 CE at the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) Divide site, based on trends in observed bubble number-density of samples from the WDC06A ice core, and on an independently constructed accumulation-rate history using annual-layer dating corrected for density variations and thinning from ice flow. Density increase and grain growth in polar firn are both controlled by temperature and accumulation rate, and the integrated effects are recorded in the number-density of bubbles as the firn changes to ice. Number-density is conserved in bubbly ice following pore close-off, allowing reconstruction of either paleotemperature or paleo-accumulation rate if the other is known. A quantitative late-Holocene paleoclimate reconstruction is presented for West Antarctica using data obtained from the WAIS Divide WDC06A ice core and a steady-state bubble number-density model. The resultant temperature history agrees closely with independent reconstructions based on stable-isotopic ratios of ice. The ∼1.7°C cooling trend observed is consistent with a decrease in Antarctic summer duration from changing orbital obliquity, although it remains possible that elevation change at the site contributed part of the signal. Accumulation rate and temperature dropped together, broadly consistent with control by saturation vapor pressure.