The BBC’s Climate Change By Numbers
By Paul Homewood
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p02jsdrk/climate-change-by-numbers
The BBC broadcast its latest piece of climate change propaganda last night, “Climate Change by Numbers”.
The programme centred around three mathematicians, Dr Hannah Fry, Prof Norman Fenton and Prof David Spiegelhalter, using mathematical techniques to persuade us how dangerous climate change was going to be.
Plenty of flashy graphics were used, and a lot of impressive-sounding words thrown around – matrix algebra, Kalman filters, Monte Carlo methods. Attempts were made to compare the ways that climatologists use these techniques, with the likes of Formula One, Apollo missions, and even Premier League teams.
It was difficult to identify any real substance, however, and there was a noticeable reluctance to address any of the very real issues that are central to the debate over climate change.
The programme centred around three numbers:
The Met Office Renewable Energy Service
By Paul Homewood
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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/renewables/contact-us
The Met Office run a renewable energy team, whose sole purpose is to raise commercial revenue. One of the main services they offer is a wind prediction tool, Virtual Met Mast”, which is designed especially to help large and smaller scale wind farm developers and wind farm consultants select the best onshore and offshore wind farm sites throughout Europe, it now offers major improvements in both accuracy and uncertainty statistics.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/renewables/vmm
UK On Course For Sunniest Winter
By Paul Homewood
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/sunniest-winter-on-record
From the Met Office:
27 February 2015 – This winter is very likely to be a record breaker. Provisional Met Office statistics show that the UK has had its sunniest winter in records dating back to 1929.
While the figures for temperature and rainfall are fairly average, it has been one of, if not the sunniest winter in UK records dating back to 1929.
By 25 February the UK had already seen 189 hours of sunshine, equalling the 2001 record, but with 3 more days left to the end of the meteorological winter we are likely to beat that record by about 7 hours.
This is in stark contrast to last winter, which was the wettest on record with 544 mm of rainfall, 65 % above average; however this winter is on target to see 375 mm of rainfall, just 8 % above average. The southern, eastern and north-east areas of England have been drier than average while Scotland it has been one of the top-ten wettest winters in the series from 1910.
Evidence Of A Warmer Holocene In The Andes
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ben Vorlich
http://www.amjbot.org/content/97/9/1579.full
It is no secret that the Andes were warmer up to around 5000 years ago than now. Lamb and others have concluded that temperatures were maybe 2C higher then.
There is also evidence from ice cores that the MWP was at least as warm as the late 20thC.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/04/09/peru-had-a-mwp-lia/
One of the strands of evidence is the discovery of plant remains, discovered as glaciers there recede, which are carbon dated to 5000 years ago. The paper quoted above makes the interesting comment that:
we found evidence of at least five taxa characteristic of wetlands, which occur primarily at lower elevations in the region today.
This would indicate that the climate then was significantly warmer than today.
Bloggie of the Year
By Paul Homewood
Apparently I’m a double finalist in the Bloggie of the Year (did not even know I had entered!)
Click here for instructions on how to vote.
Voting closes on March 22nd.
The Truth Behind Christian Aid’s Campaign
By Paul Homewood
We looked at Christian Aid’s latest campaign yesterday to fight “global warming”. Their website features this recent article on Bolivia.
Fundacion Solon are listed as their “partner”, but who are they?
Now It’s OK To Lie About Climate Change – Yale Project
By Paul Homewood
h/t rwoollaston
http://www.piercepioneer.com/officials-warn-global-warming-slowdown-actually-quite-misleading/38352
Studies recently show that the global warming trend is in a bit of a slowdown. Does that mean we may be nearing the end of the heating period? Well, experts say that the slowdown may be quite misleading.
The study authors describe, “The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth’s climate system.”
Study author Anthony Leiserowitz goes on to describe “It’s fair to say that the vast majority of the public is completely unaware of the word ‘hiatus,’ or the word ‘pause,’ or any of the arguments that have been going on for a few years now between the scientific community and the deniers. The vast majority of, well, at least Americans, rarely hear about climate change in the media.”
Indeed, many people were a bit surprised to find that global warming was not, in fact, a myth; and more importantly, that the state of global warming was nearing critical mass and we are now in a place where we must make drastic changes or face equally dire consequences.
The Yale Project on Climate Change Communication lead researcher continues, “There have been a number of studies that have shown that some people will change their views of climate change based on extreme weather. It’s not enough to simply experience a heat wave — it then needs to be contextualized. It needs to be interpreted by thought leaders and trusted people in a community and by the media and scientists saying, ‘This is an indication of global warming.”
I’m not sure what Leiserowitz has been smoking if he really thinks the vast majority of, well, at least Americans, rarely hear about climate change in the media.
But his final paragraph gives the game away.
There have been a number of studies that have shown that some people will change their views of climate change based on extreme weather. It’s not enough to simply experience a heat wave — it then needs to be contextualized. It needs to be interpreted by thought leaders and trusted people in a community and by the media and scientists saying, ‘This is an indication of global warming”
So, apparently, it is now OK for scientists and other “trusted people” to make claims they know are not true, and use any extreme weather event to support the theory.
Has science really sunk so low?
Polar Vortex Common In The 19thC
By Paul Homewood
I came across a chapter in Hubert Lamb’s “Climate, History and the Modern World”, which has more than a bit of topical relevance.
We are all well aware of the extremely cold winters in the eastern half of the States, both this year and last. This has coincided with warm winters in the west, the sort of extreme weather which warmists would like to blame on “climate change”.
Well it turns out that they had the same weather patterns in the 1850’s and 60’s, and the reason was just the same – a meridional jet stream.
HH Lamb – Page 253
Lamb believed that this meridionality was actually more common during the Little Ice Age, and there is plenty of evidence of the same phenomenon during the cooling period of the 1960’s and 70’s.
Is the latest incarnation of this just weather, or an indication of a return to a colder era? Either way, it won’t stop junk scientists blaming it on “global warming”.
Christian Aid Saving The World From Global Warming!
By Paul Homewood
h/t Retired Dave
It seems Christian Aid are banging their global warming drum again!
Maybe they could tell us where all these communities are around the world, who are suffering from the effects of climate change?
Their website does actually offer a couple of case studies.
Mikey Discovers Ocean Cycles!
By Paul Homewood
Climate “scientist”, Michael Mann, has discovered that the 17 year pause in global warming is due to “internal variability”, particularly ocean cycles. In a paper written with a Byron Somebody, and someone called Sonya, he finds:
That internal variability is found in the natural cycles of temperature change that occur over years or even decades in the oceans, like El Niño and La Niña. There are others, like the “Atlantic multidecadal oscillation” and the “Pacific decadal oscillation”…
There is an oceanic tug-of-war between the two systems. Sometimes the ocean cycles worked together to suck heat or burp it skyward—sometimes their push-pull led to a draw.
Welcome to the party, Mikey! Some of us have been explaining about this for years.
There is just one slight snag with your explanation. We have been in the warm phase of the AMO since around 1997, and this is actually helping to keep global temperatures up.
As can be seen from the ESRL graph below, when the AMO and PDO moved in concert from cold to warm, first in the 1920’s and 30’s, and later in the 1980’s and 90’s, global temperatures went up.
And when they both turned cold together between the 1940’s and 70’s, temperatures fell.
Currently the cold PDO and warm AMO are helping to offset each other. With the negative PDO likely to last another two decades, and the AMO likely to head south (not literally!) soon, we can expect another 30 years of pause, if not outright cooling.
When do I collect my Nobel Prize?
