By Paul Homewood
h/t Green Sand
The Telegraph has finally woken up to a problem I was warning about four years ago!
The UK Government risks sleepwalking into a £23bn tax black hole by failing to face up to the fiscal impact of tackling road transport emissions.
The new parliament plans to put legislation in place to upgrade the UK’s infrastructure to help increase the number of autonomous and electric vehicles on British roads. But a new report from right-leaning think tank Policy Exchange has warned that the Treasury could find a gap in its expected tax revenue unless the shift to cleaner vehicles is part of an overarching Government strategy.
“The Government needs to recognise the fiscal implications of cleaning up road transport. Our analysis suggests that if carbon targets are met, fuel duty receipts could be £9bn-£23bn lower in 2030 than the Government is currently assuming,” said Richard Howard, an author on the Policy Exchange report.
The Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) has estimated that fuel duty receipts could increase from £28bn a year to around £40bn by 2030.
But Policy Exchange said fuel duty tax receipts would be as low as £17bn-£31bn by the end of the next decade – or £9bn-£23bn lower than the OBR is banking on – if the legislated carbon targets are met. Mr Howard said the OBR and Department for Transport are working off completely different projections for emissions than the Committee on Climate Change.
It is significant that they highlight the discrepancy between the OBR and CCC assumptions.
In my view, the CCC are living in cloud cuckoo land if they really think that millions of drivers are going to be driving electric cars in ten years time. There is simply nothing that electric cars can currently offer that will attract more than a handful of eco loons, and it is hard to see that changing in such a short space of time.
And although the government talks the talk, as far as CO2 emissions go, they are hardly likely to walk the walk when they stand to lose tens of billions in tax revenue.
But just assuming the CCC are right, where will the government make good the lost tax revenue?
Taxing electric cars? If they do, nobody will buy them.
Taxing electricity? A non starter.
Raising other taxes? A guaranteed vote loser.
Road tolls? Again, this would be massively unpopular.
I expect the government will still be kicking the can down the road ten years from now.
Hinkley nuclear costs climb as deadlines slip again
By Paul Homewood
I won’t say I told you, but!
.
Jillian Ambrose reports:
.
EDF is bracing for a multi-billion euro rise in costs at its Hinkley Point C nuclear site after a fresh evaluation of the project revealed yet another likely delay. An internal review of the troubled project by senior executives at EDF’s French headquarters is expected to confirm fears that the state-backed energy giant will not be able to deliver Hinkley on time or in line with its £18bn budget.
India’s Electricity Transformation
By Paul Homewood
Renewable proponents are getting excited about the latest news from India:
The Indian energy market transformation is accelerating under Energy Minister Piyush Goyal’s leadership.
The most recent and most persuasive evidence is the collapsing cost of solar electricity—a collapse that has gone beyond anyone’s expectations, and the results are in: solar has won.
The global energy market implications are profound.
Recent events have given manifest life to Mark Carney’s landmark 2015 speech in which Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, warned of stranded-asset risks across the coal industry. This month alone has seen the cancellation of 13.7 gigawatts (GW) of proposed coal-fired power plants across India and an admission that US$9bn (8.6GW) of already operating import-coal-fired power plants are potentially no longer viable.
To put an Australian and a global seaborne thermal coal-trade perspective on it, these development strike at the very viability of the Carmichael export thermal coal proposal. They speak as well to a worldwide transition in progress.
India solar tariffs have been in freefall for months. A new 250MW solar tender in Rajasthan at the Bhadla Phase IV solar park this month was won at a record low Rs2.62/kWh,[i] 12 percent below the previous record low tariff awarded across 750MW of solar just three months ago at Rs2.97/kWh.
The Bhalda Phase record lasted two days, with a more recent 500MW Indian solar auction coming in at Rs2.44/kWh, 7 percent below Bhalda Phase.
We see solar pricing continuing to become even more competitive over time.
Several forces are at work.
In December 2016, India released its 10-year Draft National Electricity Plan, calling for the installation of a cumulative 275GW of renewable energy capacity by 2027, as well as 97GW of other zero emissions capacity (primarily large scale hydro, but also nuclear). Relative to a planned total system capacity of 650GW, the plan sees thermal power capacity falling from 69 percent of India electricity-generation mix in March 2016 to 43 percent by 2027.
http://ieefa.org/ieefa-asia-indias-electricity-sector-transformation-happening-now/
We are supposed to believe that solar power is going to rapidly replace coal. But, in fact, the news is not really new at all, and simply confirms what we knew already from India’s Draft National Plan, published in December 2016, and covered here.
But first, some basic facts.
Nice heatwave, but June 1878 was hotter
By Paul Homewood
Booker on last week’s heatwave:
Headline writers were itching during last week’s heatwave to proclaim that it was a “record breaking” June, particularly on June 21, when the BBC flashed up that the temperature had hit “35 degrees” (in fact it had only been 34.5).
The problem, as all had to admit, was that this was only the hottest June spell since the drought year of 1976, when June temperatures on seven days exceeded 34.5, followed by months more of exceptional heat before the drought broke in September.
But the suspicions of that expert analyst Paul Homewood were aroused when he noticed that the 34.5 degrees had only been recorded in one place, Heathrow airport: just as happened two years ago when the Met Office splashed across the media that July 1 2015 had been “the hottest July day ever”, with a temperature of 36.7 degrees, again recorded only at Heathrow airport.
Dale Vince Increases His Prices
By Paul Homewood
h/t Bloke down the Pub
Not content with receiving huge subsidies from the taxpayer, electric car drivers are now moaning about paying a proper cost for their electricity:
Reckoned to be Britain’s wealthiest hippy, Dale Vince can be pretty pleased with his £100m fortune.
Some of his customers appear less happy. For Mr Vince’s company is accused of hiking up prices at electric car charging points while at the same time ploughing millions of pounds into his football club.
Greenpeace Beclown Themselves
By Paul Homewood
h/t Joe Public
Greenpeace and the Scientists agree:
https://twitter.com/greenpeace/status/878628872769732609
One slight problem though! The “scientists” were really from the Onion, a satirical website:
http://www.theonion.com/article/scientists-politely-remind-world-that-clean-energy-36086
Perhaps Greenpeace might like to consult some real scientists next time!
Christina Figueres Joins The Lancet
By Paul Homewood
Apparently the Lancet now believe that world communism will improve everybody’s health:
The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change marked historic progress for the planet and human health. Signatories agreed to limit global temperature rise to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels”; redouble a global commitment of financial flows to developing countries of US$100 billion annually by 2020; and created a mechanism to increase ambitious action.1 Although inaction threatens to undermine 50 years of progress in public health, meeting the Paris Agreement’s ambitions presents the greatest global health opportunity of this century.2 The challenge now lies in implementation.
Although the development and signing of the Paris Agreement was an international effort, the charge was led by one woman—Christiana Figueres. She took to the helm of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)—the mechanism underpinning international action on climate change—as its Executive Secretary in 2009, and was challenged with securing a safe path forward for the Convention and the world’s climate. Building a cross-sectoral and international coalition, she helped shepherd the Paris Agreement to its signing in Paris in December, 2015.
The international ratification of the most ambitious climate treaty in history has set the momentum for tackling climate change. Even with the departure of the USA from the Agreement, 196 other countries are united in their commitment to prevent a global climate catastrophe. One country dropping out will not change the course of action.
The medical community has three crucial parts to play in addressing climate change and acting on the momentum created by the Paris Agreement. First, we need bold leadership and a strong voice, communicating to patients and advocating to governments that climate change is fundamentally a public health issue. Second, the health benefits of responding to climate change must be realised and maximised globally. Third, we must benchmark and monitor efforts to meet and overcome these challenges. Only then can the true impact of climate change on health be understood, and the health benefits of responding to climate change be realised.
The Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change is meeting these needs.3 By providing annual data across a range of indicators, the Lancet Countdown will lead and communicate on health and climate change; demonstrate the health co-benefits of mitigation and adaptation; and monitor global progress in meeting the Paris Agreement.
The Lancet Countdown has the potential not only to improve the response to climate change, but to transform it. The collaboration is therefore delighted to announce that Christiana Figueres will join as Chair of its High-Level Advisory Board. Much as she did with the Paris Agreement, Christiana Figueres will help guide the Lancet Countdown to maximise its impact and deliver on the promise of the Paris Agreement.
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)31667-7/fulltext
Ten Reasons Why We Don’t Believe You, Katharine
By Paul Homewood
Katharine Hayhoe thinks she knows why some of us don’t believe in global warming – apparently we don’t care!
Well Katharine, here are another ten reasons you forgot:
1) We don’t trust climate scientists.
The Climategate emails revealed just how untrustworthy the climate establishment has become.
We know that literally billions in grants are being shovelled their way, and that these grants would quickly dry up if they dropped their alarmism.
Tornado Stats For 2016–Another Quiet Year
By Paul Homewood
NOAA have been very slow in releasing the final tornado data for 2016, but it is finally out now.
As the provisional indicated at the time, last year was another very quiet year for tornadoes, and continued the pattern of a lower level compared to the 1970s.
Yes Minister Does Global Warming
By Paul Homewood
h/t Jo Nova
If only Yes Minister had done global warming. Well, it has now, in the new stage version.
It’s hilarious, absolutely to the point, and a must watch.
Yes Prime Minister Global Warming etc Part 1 from Aris Motas on Vimeo.
Yes Prime Minister Global Warming etc Part 2 from Aris Motas on Vimeo.
