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News On Capacity Market Auction

December 4, 2016

By Paul Homewood 

 

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/03/subsidy-cash-fire-new-dash-gas-power/

 

The Telegraph reports on the Capacity Market auction due this week:

 

Four years ago this week, the Government unveiled plans for a bold new dash for gas.

New gas-fired power stations, then-energy secretary Ed Davey said, would be required to “provide crucial capacity to keep the lights on”.

A new Gas Generation Strategy backed “significant investment” in up to 26 gigawatts (GW) of new plants by 2030.

Since then, energy ministers have come and gone, support for solar and onshore wind has been scrapped and the drive for new nuclear has faced security and cost worries. But support for gas had been unwavering.

Relatively cheap and quick to build, much cleaner than coal, and able to generate even when the wind doesn’t blow or the sun doesn’t shine, gas plants tick all the Government’s boxes.

“In the next 10 years, it’s imperative that we get new gas-fired power stations built,” Amber Rudd, Davey’s successor, declared last year.

There’s just one problem: pretty much no one’s building them.

Read more…

Booker On The Cost Of The Climate Change Act

December 4, 2016

By Paul Homewood 

 

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/03/energy-policy-politicians-leading-us-darkness/

 

Booker highlights those OBR numbers today:

 

As the costliest project any British government has ever proposed, the HS2 rail scheme has rightly drawn heavy criticism from those asking why we are to spend £56 billion on a venture which promises such puny benefits. But most people remain strangely oblivious to a far greater cost to which the Government has committed us, for a purpose even more demonstrably futile.

What should be making front page news is the story revealed by the latest figures from the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR), predicting the soaring cost over the next six years of all the “environmental levies” imposed on us under the Climate Change Act. Between now and 2022, according to the OBR, these will amount to £65 billion, of which £36 billion will be subsidies we shall all be paying through the “renewables obligation”, mainly to the owners of our ever-growing number of windfarms.

These subsidies alone will represent a near-trebling of what we are already paying through our electricity bills, which by 2022 the OBR predicts will have risen to nearly £7 billion a year.

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Claims Of Increasing Tornado Outbreaks Don’t Hold Water

December 3, 2016

By Paul Homewood

 

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http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2016/11/30/science.aah7393

 

Who will rid me of this junk science?

 

The latest attempt to prove that tornadoes are becoming more extreme:

 

ABSTRACT

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were 8.5 billion USD. The largest U.S. impacts of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2016/11/30/science.aah7393

 

As any proper expert on tornadoes knows, many more tornadoes get to be reported nowadays, simply because of changes in reporting procedures.

McCarthy & Schaefer explained this fully in their paper, TORNADO TRENDS OVER THE PAST THIRTY YEARS, which they wrote in 2003:

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Europe’s green energy policy is a disaster for the environment

December 3, 2016
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By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Tallbloke

 

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 https://www.newscientist.com/article/2114993-europes-green-energy-policy-is-a-disaster-for-the-environment

 

From New Scientist:

 

The European Union’s proposals for revising its renewable energy policies are greenwashing and don’t solve the serious flaws, say environmental groups.

Read more…

Crocodile Tears From Caroline Flint

December 2, 2016

By Paul Homewood

 

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https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/803908096997425152

 

Labour MP Caroline Flint is referring to the recent report by the National Audit Office, “Controlling the consumer-funded costs of energy policies: The Levy Control Framework”, which can be found here.

The report was the subject of discussion two days ago at the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee, of which Flint is a member.

 

The back drop to the report is pretty straightforward, although the report itself is typically full of management buzzwords.

The basic reason for the overspend is twofold:

  1. Wholesale electricity prices have fallen, thus making subsidies to renewables greater than budgeted for.
  2. In 2014, Ed Davey awarded eight early CfD contracts before the auction system was properly up and running. Consequently they ended costing more than they otherwise would.

Anybody who has been following the government’s policy towards renewable energy, such as this blog, has been warning about such an overspend for some time now.

Now, for a busy person like our Caroline, you could be excused for not having the time to study such minor details. Except for the fact that between 2011 and 2015 she just happened to be Shadow Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change!

I wonder what she was doing during those four years, when Chris Huhne and Ed Davey were busy handing out billions of pounds in subsidies for renewable energy?

 

Worse still, she was also a Minister in the Labour government in 2008, when Ed Miliband lumbered us all with his Climate Change Act.

It’s a bit late to pretend you’re worried about an extra billion now, Caroline!

The Most Comprehensive Assault On ‘Global Warming’ Ever

December 2, 2016

By Paul Homewood

ScreenHunter_01 Dec. 02 10.24

http://www.dailywire.com/news/2071/most-comprehensive-assault-global-warming-ever-mike-van-biezen

 

Mike van Biezen, who is adjunct professor at Compton College, Santa Monica College, El Camino College, and Loyola Marymount University teaching Physics, Mathematics, Astronomy, and Earth Science, covers a lot of the bases in this critique of global warming theory:

 

It made sense.  Knowing that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and that our industrialized world is adding a large amount of it to the atmosphere on a yearly basis, I accepted the premise that this would cause global temperatures to rise.  But one day about 7 years ago, I looked at the ubiquitous graph showing the “global” temperature of the last 150 years and noticed something odd.  It was subtle, and as I found out later, disguised so that it would be overlooked.  There appeared to be a period of about 40 years between 1940 and 1980 where the global temperatures actually declined a bit.  As a data analysis expert, I could not ignore that subtle hint and began to look into it a little more.  Forty years is a long time, and while carbon dioxide concentrations were increasing exponentially over the same period, I could not overlook that this showed an unexpected shift in the correlation between global temperatures and CO2 concentrations. Thus I began to look into it a little further and here are some of the results 7 years later.

Before we begin, let’s establish what we know to be correct.  The global average temperature has increased since the 1980’s.  Since the 1980’s glaciers around the world are receding and the ice cap of the Arctic Ocean has lost ice since the 1980’s, especially during the summer months.  The average global temperature for the last 10 years is approximately 0.35 degrees centigrade higher than it was during the 1980’s. The global warming community has exploited these facts to “prove” that human activity (aka burning of fossil fuels) is the cause of these increasing temperatures.  But no direct scientific proof or data has been shown that link the current observations to human activity.  The link is assumed to be simply a fact, with no need to investigate or discuss any scientific data.

 

Here are 10 of the many scientific problems with the assumption human activity is causing “global warming” or “climate change”.

 

Read his full analysis here.

Capacity problem looms as main UK interconnector damaged

December 1, 2016

By Paul Homewood

 

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PEI have the latest update on damage to the French ICT:

 

Storm Angus, which struck British shores last week, is suspected of having had a damaging impact on the UK’s biggest energy interconnector.

The news means less overall capacity for the country at a time when the capacity margin is already tight. Rob Lalor of energy consultancy EnAppSys told
Power Engineering International the problem will have an inevitable impact on power prices.

The National Grid has confirmed that the Interconnexion France-Angleterre (IFA) interconnector with France is set to run at 50 per cent of its capacity until the end of February after investigations revealed four of its eight subsea cable were severed during the storm.
Interconnexion France-Angleterre (IFA) interconnector
“We experienced a trip of the IFA interconnector on the morning of Sunday 20 November,” National Grid said in a statement. “After further investigation, the fault has been identified and we can confirm that four of IFA’s eight cables have been damaged. This will result in a reduction of IFA’s maximum capacity to 1000MW until the end of February 2017.

“Investigations are ongoing and teams on both sides of the channel are working to restore IFA to full availability. We will issue regular updates regarding progress.”

A spokesman said the company was investigating whether the damage was caused by a ship’s anchor dragging along the sea floor during Storm Angus.

National Grid predicted a capacity margin of 1.1 per cent during peak hours this winter, rising to 6.6 per cent once of the Supplemental Balancing Reserve. However, both these figures assumed 2GW of net imports from continental Europe, partly through the IFA link.

UK day-ahead power prices rose sharply on Monday, when the news broke, amid steady wind and higher power demand forecasts, sparking supply concerns.

Platts reports that at around midday Monday, wind power supplies stood at 1.5 GW, accounting for less than 4% of the UK energy mix, while no French imports were flowing through the IFA link, the grid data showed.

Gas-fired power generation reached 22 GW, representing more than half of the electricity supplies, while coal and nuclear power production was at 5.6 GW and 8.3 GW respectively.

Rob Lalor, energy analyst with EnAppSys consultancy told Power Engineering International, that this winter the French Interconnector has been seeing greater variety in terms of imports and exports between France and the UK.

Normally the interconnector imports power into the UK most of the time, but this winter levels of imports/exports have been far more varied due to capacity issues in both France and Britain.

“On the 15th, 17th and 18th of November this activity meant that the system was very short heading into the evening peak with what appeared to be very limited evening margin, between available supply and demand, only for the interconnector to turn from a ~2GW export to France for the day to a ~2GW import across the evening peak; ensuring that France was able to reduce its cost of baseload power across the day and that GB was able to manage a tricky evening demand peak,” Lalor said.

“The interconnector has really been acting as a regulating valve, helping contain prices in both regions when there have been shortages and allowing UK generation to benefit from high prices in France and vice versa. The reduction in levels of capacity across this interconnector by 50 per cent will reduce the size of the regulating activity at a time when temporary shortages are becoming more common.”

Lalor added that this winter has already seen some very higher power prices in both countries (with the UK seeing its first supplier go bust this winter period) and the main impact of this will be increased price volatility in both markets and an increased requirement for both nations to handle their own capacity issues domestically.

“Both countries expect to see tight margins during similar time periods, so the ability to meet peak periods shouldn’t be adversely affected, but the ability of the interconnectors to regulate prices will be reduced.”

“Where there would be exports to France this should benefit UK consumers and French generators at the expense of French consumers and UK generators, whilst where there would be imports from France this will benefit UK generators and French consumers at the expense of French generators and UK consumers, so with relatively even levels of imports and exports there should be no obvious net winner. Ultimately we all gain as a whole from these interconnectors and so the aggregate cost of power will be higher than would otherwise have been the case.”

 

 

One wonders what might happen to the proposed Iceland and Norway interconnectors, which will certainly be exposed to much stronger storms?

What Emily Shuckburgh Forgot To Tell You

November 30, 2016
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By Paul Homewood 

 

h/t Dave Ward

 

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3970082/How-Captain-Robert-Scott-s-log-book-expedition-Antarctica-100-years-ago-raises-troubling-new-doubts-global-warming.html 

 

 

Booker had a piece in the Mail the other day about how Scott’s and Shackleton’s records showed that sea ice extent around Antarctica then was little different to today.

I did not bother reposting it as I had already covered the topic myself. However, it has elicited a hysterical and misleading reply from Dr Emily Shuckburgh of the British Antarctic Survey. More of that later, but first this is what Booker wrote:

 

Read more…

Drax Paid £450 Million In Subsidies Last Year

November 30, 2016
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By Paul Homewood 

 

h/t Joe Public 

 

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https://www.ft.com/content/e8677192-b658-11e6-961e-a1acd97f622d

 

The Financial Times brings the astonishing story that Drax was paid £450 million last year for its biomass operation.

Under the CfD mechanism, Drax receives a guaranteed price of £105/MWh (at 2012 prices, worth around £115 currently).

 

 

Meanwhile, Drax’s CEO explains why the carbon tax should not be scrapped. No surprise there then!!

 

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http://www.drax.com/energy-policy/carbon-tax-scrapped-definitely-not/

 

But I am not quite sure why he thinks burning America’s forests is in any way clean.

The Lessons Of Lysenko

November 29, 2016

By Paul Homewood

 

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https://rogerhelmermep.wordpress.com/2016/11/29/the-lessons-of-lysenko/

 

An excellent post by Roger Helmer, who is, for those who don’t know, UKIP MEP for East Midlands:

 

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Following the death of Fidel Castro, it’s perhaps a good time to think about the malign impacts of totalitarian government, and the damage that political agendas can do to science.

I was recently discussing Lysenko with a friend (as you do), and naturally we turned to Wikipedia to clarify a point.  And I came across a quote that hit me between the eyes (figuratively speaking);

“The term Lysenkoism can also be used metaphorically to describe the manipulation or distortion of the scientific process as a way to reach a predetermined conclusion as dictated by an ideological bias, often related to social or political objectives”.

Dear Reader, you’re way ahead of me.  Yes of course, I was struck immediately by the read-across to climate science.  The parallels are remarkable.

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