The Great Famine Of 1315-17
By Paul Homewood
h/t Tom O Mason
When God saw that the world was so over proud,
He sent a dearth on earth, and made it full hard.
A bushel of wheat was at four shillings or more,
Of which men might have had a quarter before….
And then they turned pale who had laughed so loud,
And they became all docile who before were so proud.
A man’s heart might bleed for to hear the cry
Of poor men who called out, ‘Alas! For hunger I die …!’
—’Poem on the Evil Times of Edward II‘, c. 1321.
From Wikipedia:
The Great Famine of 1315–1317 (occasionally dated 1315–1322) was the first of a series of large scale crises that struck Europe early in the fourteenth century. Places affected include continental Europe (extending east to Russia and south to Italy) as well as Great Britain. It caused millions of deaths over an extended number of years and marks a clear end to an earlier period of growth and prosperity between the eleventh to thirteenth centuries.
The Great Famine started with bad weather in spring 1315, universal crop failures lasted through 1316 until summer harvest in 1317; Europe did not fully recover until 1322. It was a period marked by extreme levels of crime, disease, mass death and even cannibalism and infanticide. It had consequences for the Church, state, European society and future calamities to follow in the fourteenth century.
During the Medieval Warm Period (the period prior to 1300) the population of Europe had exploded, reaching levels that were not matched again in some places until the nineteenth century. However, the yield ratios of wheat (the number of seeds one could eat per seed planted) had been dropping since 1280 and food prices had been climbing. In good weather the ratio could be as high as 7:1, while during bad years as low as 2:1 – that is, for every seed planted, two seeds were harvested, one for next year’s seed, and one for food. By comparison, modern farming has ratios of 30:1 or more.
The onset of the Great Famine coincided with the end of the Medieval Warm Period. Between 1310 and 1330 northern Europe saw some of the worst and most sustained periods of bad weather in the entire Middle Ages, characterized by severe winters and rainy and cold summers.
In the spring of 1315, unusually heavy rain began in much of Europe. Throughout the spring and summer, it continued to rain and the temperature remained cool. These conditions caused widespread crop failures. The straw and hay for the animals could not be cured and there was no fodder for the livestock. The price of food began to rise. Food prices in England doubled between spring and midsummer. Salt, the only way to cure and preserve meat, was difficult to obtain because it was more difficult to extract through evaporation in the wet weather; it went from 30 shillings to 40 shillings.
Because of the general poverty, even lower-than-average harvests meant some people would go hungry. In Lorraine, wheat prices increased by 320% and peasants could no longer afford bread. Stores of grain for long-term emergencies were limited to the lords and nobles. People began to harvest wild edible roots, plants, grasses, nuts, and bark in the forests.
There are a number of documented incidents that show the extent of the famine. Edward II, King of England, stopped at St Albans on 10 August 1315 and no bread could be found for him or his entourage; it was a rare occasion in which the King of England was unable to eat. The French, under Louis X, tried to invade Flanders, but being in the low country of the Netherlands, the fields were soaked and the army became so bogged down they were forced to retreat, burning their provisions where they left them, unable to carry them away.
In the spring of 1316, it continued to rain on a European population deprived of energy and reserves to sustain itself. All segments of society from nobles to peasants were affected, but especially the peasants who represented 95% of the population and who had no reserve food supplies. To provide some measure of relief, draft animals were butchered, seed grain was consumed, children were abandoned to fend for themselves (see "Hansel and Gretel"), and some elderly people voluntarily refused food in order to provide nourishment needed for the younger generation to survive.The chroniclers of the time wrote of many incidents of cannibalism.
The height of the famine was reached in 1317 as the wet weather continued. Finally, in the summer the weather returned to its normal patterns. By now, however, people were so weakened by diseases such as pneumonia, bronchitis, and tuberculosis, and so much of the seed stock had been eaten, that it was not until 1325 that the food supply returned to relatively normal conditions and the population began to increase again. Historians debate the toll but it is estimated that 10–25% of the population of many cities and towns died.
While the Black Death (1338–1375) would kill more people, it often swept through an area in a matter of months whereas the Great Famine lingered for years, drawing out the suffering of the populace.
Climate geniuses nowadays tell us that heavy rain is caused by global warming.
Censorship Of Letters
By Paul Homewood
It appears that people have had letters to various newspapers not simply ignored but, on occasions, edited, or worse still added to, in order to change the meaning.
If anybody has this problem in future, just give me a shout, and I will publish.
Thanks
Paul
East Anglian Daily Times – Climate Change Supplement
By Paul Homewood
http://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk//launch.aspx?pbid=d92e9553-3ffd-4887-811b-60b0aa22fcea
The East Anglian Daily Times have published a special supplement this week on climate change, and I have managed to persuade them to include my article, presenting a slightly less alarmist point of view.
Feel free to send letters to the paper! They can be contacted at:
China Plan Massive Increase In Coal Capacity
By Paul Homewood
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/07/china-coal-idUKL3N0K90H720140107
Although China have committed to a small reduction in coal’s share of its primary energy mix, down from 66.8% to 65% over the next 5 years, coal consumption will still increase. This is because China’s overall energy use will increase, as their economy continues to grow.
From Reuters:
BEIJING, Jan 8 (Reuters) - China approved the construction of more than 100 million tonnes of new coal production capacity in 2013 – six times more than a year earlier and equal to 10 percent of U.S. annual usage – flying in the face of plans to tackle choking air pollution.
The scale of the increase, which only includes major mines, reflects Beijing’s aim to put 860 million tonnes of new coal production capacity into operation over the five years to 2015, more than the entire annual output of India.
While efforts to curb pollution mean coal’s share of the country’s energy mix is set to dip, the total amount of the cheap and plentiful fuel burned will still rise.
Fruit Loop Day At The Guardian!
By Paul Homewood
Says the loss-making Guardian!
Low CO2 Floods In 1960
By Paul Homewood
Exeter Floods – 1960
In my look at winter rainfall, I noted that October to December 1960 was wetter, but it turns out that the wet weather lasted a lot longer that year.
From the Met Office monthly report for November that year.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/o/r/Nov1960.pdf
According to the current England & Wales series, the wettest July to November was, in fact, in 1799, with 1960 in second place, so there may have been some revisions. Nevertheless, the 1960 total of 669.7mm has nor been exceeded since. Even in the extremely wet year of 2012, the total only came to 571.2mm, which ranks 14th since 1766.
Of course, July to November is just one of a number of permutations. You could just as easily pick June to October, for example. That is why reading some sort of significance into the latest December to February period, just because it is “winter” is unscientific and misleading.
It Was Much Wetter In 1929/30
By Paul Homewood
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts
The Met Office have now issued the precipitation stats for last month, so what do they tell us about the winter as a whole in England, where the floods have caused such havoc? (I am concentrating on England for this reason, although there is a section on the UK as whole, which shows a similar picture)
(I will also be devoting a separate post to the situation in Somerset.)
After all of the hype and repeatedly proclaimed “possible links to climate change”, we find that December to February rainfall, although the highest since 1910, was just a measly 3mm more than recorded in 1914/15. If this winter’s record rainfall really has been the result of global warming, as has been claimed, is that really the only difference it has made, 3mm?
And has this 3-month spell been unprecedented? Nope, not even remotely so, I am afraid. As I have been pointing out for the last few weeks, there was a much wetter period during the winter of 1929/30. But, not only that, it also turns out that there were wetter periods in 2001/01 and 1960/61.
Let’s run through the numbers.
| Precipitation mm |
|
| Nov 1929 to Jan 1930 | 455.1 |
| Oct 1960 to Dec 1960 | 396.3 |
| Oct 2000 to Dec 2000 | 442.1 |
| Dec 2013 to Feb 2014 | 395.6 |
Of course, February is a short month, so this could account for about 6mm of the difference on a pro rata basis, but even then this winter’s precipitation is still much less than in 1929/30 and 2000.
Cameron’s Claim Not Supported By Evidence
By Paul Homewood
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25656426
Readers will recall that the Prime Minister, David Cameron, replying to a question about recent wet weather at PM questions in January, replied:
"I agree with you that we are seeing more abnormal weather events. Colleagues across the House can argue about whether that is linked to climate change or not. I very much suspect that it is.”
So I fired off this FOI request to the Department of Energy & Climate Change:
Please advise:
1) What evidence the PM has that "abnormal events are increasing"
2) What evidence he has that the recent bad weather is in any way "abnormal"
On Feb 3rd, DECC replied that they did not hold this information, and suggested I contact the Cabinet Office, which I duly did.
I have just received their reply:
In other words, they are admitting there is no evidence at all that recent weather was “abnormal”, or that “abnormal weather” is increasing. It is simply the PM’s opinion.
Perhaps, Cameron needs to stand up again, and make this clear.
By Paul Homewood
I really can’t add to this :
From CNS:
Any climate alarmist will tell you that climate change is increasing extreme weather events, but liberal billionaire Warren Buffett easily destroyed that argument.
Buffett told CNBC March 3, that extreme weather events haven’t increased due to climate change, saying that weather events are consistent with how they were 30-50 years ago. Buffett, who is heavily invested in various insurance markets, said that climate change alarmism has simply made hurricane insurance more profitable, driving up premiums without increasing risk.
Buffett said the supposed increase in extreme weather "hasn’t been true so far, Joe. We always think it’s cold. We always think it’s cold in Omaha. But, it was cold in Omaha 50 years ago."
CNBC’s Becky Quick asked Buffett on March 3′s "Squawk Box" if extreme weather events have increased, affecting insurance markets. Buffett responded that "the effects of climate change, if any, have not affected our – they have not affected the insurance market."
Specifically, Buffett rejected claims that hurricanes have increased due to climate change, citing his experience in hurricane insurance. He said "we’ve been remarkably free of hurricanes in the United States in the last five years." He added "If you are writing hurricane insurance, it has been all profit."
Buffett compared the climate to previous decades, dismissing claims that weather events have been more unusual. He said "I think that the public has the impression that because there has been so much talk about climate, that events of the last 10 years, from an insured standpoint on climate, have been unusual. The answer is, they haven’t."
He argued "You read about these events, but you read about events 30, or 40, or 50 years ago."
Sea Level Rise Slowing Down Around The UK’s Coast
By Paul Homewood
NOAA have an interesting new toy, for analysing tidal gauge data. They use the same data as the PSMSL, the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, which is based in Liverpool, but have some good graphing options.
Let’s take a look at the three long running stations in the UK, that NOAA list.
We see that the rate of sea level rise ranges between 0.72mm and 1.91mm a year. It is worth noting the the land is rising by about 0.5mm a year in Aberdeen, and sinking by a similar amount at Newlyn. There is little change at North Shields.
http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/22994
When taking the land movements into account, the sea level rises seem to be broadly in line with global trends in the past century, of about 6-7 inches.
But NOAA also have graphs, which show how the trends are changing. They define it thus:
Linear mean sea level trends were calculated in overlapping 50-year increments for stations with sufficient historical data. The variability of each 50-year trend, with 95% confidence interval, is plotted against the mid-year of each 50-year period. The solid horizontal line represents the linear mean sea level trend using the entire period of record.
We find, therefore, that sea level rise has actually slowed down during the 20thC at North Shields and Newlyn, and is below the mean. Although at Aberdeen the rate has been increasing recently, it is still below that of the early 20thC.
There clearly is no evidence at all that sea level rise is accelerating around the UK’s coast.
Meanwhile, Julia and her chums at the Met Office tell us :
Sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm in the last 100 years. With the warming we are already committed to over the next few decades, a further 11-16cm of sea level rise is likely by 2030. [Or 4 to 6 inches].
At Newlyn, which is in the western entrance to the English Channel, sea level is rising at less than 2mm a year, which, according to my calculator, makes an inch by 2030.
Either there is something wrong with my calculator, or there is something wrong with our “top climate scientists”.
Sources
All NOAA data is here.
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_global.shtml
