The IR absorptive characteristics of “greenhouse” gases–David Coe
By Paul Homewood
Physicist David Coe has sent me a paper he has written on the IR absorptive characteristics of “greenhouse” gases, which I am delighted to publish.
CO2 The Miracle Molecule
SUMMARY
Using well documented data on the infra-red absorption spectra of atmospheric gases it is a straight-forward process to infer the overall atmospheric IR absorption and from that the effective global average temperature. The simplest of atmospheric models has been used: the atmosphere is considered to be a uniform thin absorbing layer of gas. The results demonstrate clearly that the warming effect of the atmosphere is almost entirely due to the spectral absorption characteristics of CO2 and H2O. They are both exceptionally strong absorbers of infra-red radiation. It is however this strength which determines the characteristics of the earth’s temperature, and in particular its stability.
70% of the energy radiated from the earth is removed by a mixture of 0.1% H2O and 200ppm of CO2. This alone is sufficient to raise global temperatures from the chilly 255K of the estimated zero atmosphere condition to 284.3K, less than 4deg below current average temperatures. An estimation of the current atmospheric mixture of gases is calculated to deliver a global mean temperature of 286.8K close to the best estimate of 288K for that temperature. Further increases in both H2O and CO2 have relatively small impacts on temperatures. This is due simply to the fact that at current concentrations the spectra of both H2O and CO2 have effectively extracted most of the energy at wavebands corresponding to their molecular absorption spectra. There is little further energy to be extracted by adding more H2O and CO2. This results in climate sensitivity values of less than 0.5degC, in comparison to the 1.5 to 5 degC range quoted by the IPCC.
CO2 levels of 3000ppm will only raise temperatures by a further 1.5K. These temperature increases are in fact well within natural variations seen in the past, including the medieval warm period and the little ice age of some 300 years ago.
The possibility of positive feedback from water vapour is discounted by the simple fact that the H2O spectrum is incapable of absorbing significant further amounts of radiated energy and the modest increase in temperature due to increasing CO2 levels is unable to deliver any significant increase in H2O concentration due to the specific relationship of H2O saturation vapour pressure and temperature. It would take an increase in temperature of 10degC to double the mean H2O atmospheric concentration, and that doubling would only result in a temperature increase of 2degC.
The impact of other known “greenhouse’ gases, CH4 and N2O are also calculated from known IR spectra data. Their absorption spectra are swamped by H2O and CO2. The combined warming caused by current atmospheric concentrations will elevate temperature by only 0.2K and increasing concentrations by a factor of 10 will only result in a further temperature increase of 0.5K.
The “greenhouse effect” is dominated by the absorption spectrum of H2O with a little help from CO2. At current concentrations of both gases it is inconceivable that further increases in concentrations will lead to any significant warming. Increasing CO2 concentration to 3000ppm and doubling the mean H2O level to 2% would result in a global temperature increase of 3.4K.
In short, there is no climate emergency, at least due to “greenhouse gases”.
The full paper can be read here:
co2-the-miracle-molecule-22637
More about the author:
I am a physicist, having read physics at Oxford back in the sixties. My day job for the last 20+ years has been developing a range of sensors for the monitoring of gaseous emissions to atmosphere using infra-red absorption spectroscopy. I thus have not only some knowledge in this area but have access to a database of molecular absorption spectra for most common gases, particularly CO2 and H2O. I am the founding director of the company Codel International Ltd, based in Bakewell, Derbyshire.
David Coe
The Ocean Warming Enigma
By Paul Homewood
h/t MrGrimNasty
There has been a nice discussion on Twitter, regarding the GWPF’s latest bulletin inconveniently pointing out that there has been no global warming in the last 5 years:
https://twitter.com/richardabetts/status/1350132359581069320
But why does Richard Betts show a graph beginning in 1958, which implies that ocean warming suddenly started to accelerate after 1990? True, there is little reliable ocean heat content data prior to 1958, but some would argue that the data prior to ARGO buoys, rolled out in 2004, is also worthless.
By Paul Homewood
Repost from Climate Realism
Cancel all the claims by climate activists that global warming is decimating Antarctica. A peer-reviewed study recently published in one of the most prominent science journals destroys one of the most frequently asserted claims by climate activists – that climate change is warming Antarctica and melting the Antarctic ice sheet. The recent study confirms Antarctica has not warmed in the past 70 years and Antarctic ice cover is expanding rather than shrinking.
Writing in the journal Nature, scientists at Columbia University and the University of Victoria, British Columbia report, “The Antarctic continent has not warmed in the last seven decades, despite a monotonic increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.”
Abstract
The Antarctic continent has not warmed in the last seven decades, despite a monotonic increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. In this paper, we investigate whether the high orography of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has helped delay warming over the continent. To that end, we contrast the Antarctic climate response to CO2-doubling with present-day orography to the response with a flattened AIS. To corroborate our findings, we perform this exercise with two different climate models. We find that, with a flattened AIS, CO2-doubling induces more latent heat transport toward the Antarctic continent, greater moisture convergence over the continent and, as a result, more surface-amplified condensational heating. Greater moisture convergence over the continent is made possible by flattening of moist isentropic surfaces, which decreases humidity gradients along the trajectories on which extratropical poleward moisture transport predominantly occurs, thereby enabling more moisture to reach the pole. Furthermore, the polar meridional cell disappears when the AIS is flattened, permitting greater CO2-forced warm temperature advection toward the Antarctic continent. Our results suggest that the high elevation of the present AIS plays a significant role in decreasing the susceptibility of the Antarctic continent to CO2-forced warming.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-00143-w
The only area of warming is around the Antarctic Peninsula, but even here temperatures stopped rising in the 1990s.
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/STATIONS/tmp_AYM00089062_14_0_1/station.png
Record Atlantic Hurricane Season?
By Paul Homewood
There has been much alarum about last year being a “record Atlantic hurricane season”. As I pointed out at the time, the claim was based on the number of named tropical storms, which includes both hurricanes and weaker storms. The number of Atlantic hurricanes alone was not a record.
Because of a tendency to name all sorts of small storms nowadays, not to mention the ability of satellites to spot them, the claim was always a spurious one.
Now we fortunately have the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) data available for the year, the claim is proven to be nonsensical and deceitful.
Is There A Climate Emergency?–Ross McKitrick
By Paul Homewood
In another of the series of Climate Change information Briefs issued from the White House, Ross McKitrick questions the climate emergency:
India Sees $55 Billion Investment in Clean Coal Over Next Decade
By Paul Homewood
India expects to invest 4 trillion rupees ($54.5 billion) in clean coal projects over the next decade as it seeks to tap domestic energy sources and curb imports, federal home minister Amit Shah said.
Bristol Energy & Robin Hood Energy Go Tits Up!
By Paul Homewood
h/t Joe Public
Back in 2016, Bristol City Council set up Bristol Energy, the first municipal energy company in the South West and one of the first in the country, amidst grand hopes:
Bristol Energy, the first municipal energy company in the South West and one of the first in the country, is officially open for business. The energy supply company was created by Bristol City Council in 2015 to be a force for social good. It is leading the way as a new model of energy company that contributes to the wellbeing of local communities.
With a fundamental belief in social responsibility, Bristol Energy will reinvest profits back into its founding city, supporting council services to citizens and community projects. The company is looking to support local renewable energy generators and to link with initiatives with a shared ethos across the city and region.
Siberian Heatwave? The Summer Of 1917 Was Hotter!
By Paul Homewood
You cannot fail to recall the neurotic freaking out over last summer’s Siberian heatwave, when a new record temperature for the Arctic of 38C was set at Verhojansk:
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/06/27/siberian-heatwave-climate-or-weather/
The event was one of last year’s main climate poster children, along with wildfires. Each year, the climate establishment pick on one or two unusual weather events, in an attempt to convince us all that the planet is quickly spinning out of control. To most people, such temperatures are unheard of in the Arctic, as they naturally assume the region is frozen all year round.
As I inconveniently pointed out at the time, the new record of 38.0C was only 0.7C higher than recorded in the same location in 1988.
But that was only one day. Now we have the full data for the year, we can compare temperatures for the whole of the summer at Verhojansk.
White House Climate Change Information Briefs
By Paul Homewood
Further to today’s post on John Christy’s Climate Change Information Brief, it appears the Climate Mafia are already fighting back.
Roy Spencer, who wrote one of the papers, reports that David Legates has already been fired by White House OSTP Director and Trump Science Advisor, Kelvin Droegemeier, who Spencer accuses of wanting to maintain a bureaucratic career in the new Biden Administration, and has turned against the President for political purposes and professional gain.
As is his right, Droegmeier has asked Roy and the others to remove links to the brochures, as they have the White House Seal on them.
However, Climate Depot still has the following post, which not only provides links to the PDFs, but also contains the full brochures themselves.
I have also saved copies of the PDFs, which are linked here:
Can-Computer-Models-Predict-Climate
Climate-Climate-Change-and-the-General-Circulation
Hurricanes-and-Climate-Change-1
Record-Temperatures-in-the-United-States-1
Systematic-Problems-in-the-Four-National-Assessments-of-Climate-Change-Impacts-on-the-US
The-Faith-Based-Nature-of-Human-Caused-Global-Warming
By Paul Homewood
There has been a storm brewing in the US about a collection of short brochures published by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy on climate change.
Naturally attempts have been made by the warmist media and climate establishment to have them taken down, as they embarrassingly undermine the official dogma about climate emergencies.
Below is one of the key papers by John Christy:
