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No Underlying Global Temperature Increase For 20 Years

April 18, 2015

By Paul Homewood

 

I was reminded about a paper from last year, authored by Ben Santer amongst others, Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature.

The paper looked at recent temperature trends in the lower troposphere, and attempted to isolate the effect of volcanoes and ENSO changes.

 

ABSTRACT

Despite continued growth in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, global mean surface and tropospheric temperatures have shown slower warming since 1998 than previously1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Possible explanations for the slow-down include internal climate variability3, 4, 6, 7, external cooling influences1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 10, 11 and observational errors12, 13. Several recent modelling studies have examined the contribution of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions1, 2, 4, 8 to the muted surface warming. Here we present a detailed analysis of the impact of recent volcanic forcing on tropospheric temperature, based on observations as well as climate model simulations. We identify statistically significant correlations between observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth and satellite-based estimates of both tropospheric temperature and short-wave fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We show that climate model simulations without the effects of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions overestimate the tropospheric warming observed since 1998. In two simulations with more realistic volcanic influences following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, differences between simulated and observed tropospheric temperature trends over the period 1998 to 2012 are up to 15% smaller, with large uncertainties in the magnitude of the effect. To reduce these uncertainties, better observations of eruption-specific properties of volcanic aerosols are needed, as well as improved representation of these eruption-specific properties in climate model simulations.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n3/full/ngeo2098.html

 

Ignore the misdirection about early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions. What the paper addresses are the El Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions of 1982 and 1991 respectively, generally reckoned to be the two biggest eruptions, in terms of stratospheric input, of the last century.

Santer’s charts below show the raw data, after adjusting for ENSO, and finally adjusting for the volcanic eruptions as well. Note that the black line represents the average of the models.

 

Read more…

India To Push Ahead With Coal

April 18, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/india-to-overtake-china-as-biggest-thermal-coal-importer/

 

From Hellenic Shipping News:

 

India is set to overtake China as the biggest importer of power-station coal, emerging as the leader of a clutch of regional nations that miners including Glencore Plc and BHP Billiton Ltd can tap for new orders.

Indian thermal-coal imports will surpass China’s by 2017 or sooner, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts William Foiles and Andrew Cosgrove said in a report. China, the world’s biggest energy consumer, is cutting down on coal use to fight pollution.

India and its regional peers including Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea plan to increase their combined coal-fired generating capacity by more than 204 gigawatts, or 60%, through 2019, as per the report.

Still, that may not be enough to trigger a price rally. A decline in coal supplies from Indonesia, the biggest exporter, and the gap between India’s demand and local output will help shape the outlook for thermal-coal prices, the analysts said.

“India will have the largest impact on seaborne thermal coal markets as lofty domestic production targets battle with likely swelling imports due to a wave of new demand from new generation plants,” Bloomberg Intelligence said.

State-run monopoly Coal India Ltd, which produces more than 80% of the nation’s coal, has said it will double output to about 1 billion tonnes in five years. That means almost doubling the pace of growth in its annual production. India’s thermal-coal demand will probably increase 42% to 1 billion tonnes in the six years to 2020, according to the report.
Source: Bloomberg

 

 

To put the numbers into perspective, in 2013 China and India’s coal imports were 327 and 180Mt respectively.

 

Read more…

The Little Ice Age In Iceland

April 17, 2015

By Paul Homewood  

 

Scan

 

While we’re on the subject of Arctic ice, it is worth taking a look at this map from HH Lamb’s “Climate, History and the Modern World”.

It shows the boundary between cold, polar water and the warmer Gulf Stream.

This is a pretty good indicator of how Arctic sea ice extent would have changed over the centuries.

Note that Lamb’s book was published in 1982, so his 20thC line would predate the latest warming in the Arctic.

There has clearly been a huge retreat of the colder waters since the depths of the Little Ice Age, long before CO2 emissions could have had any effect.

When looked at with this sort of perspective, why should anybody be in the least surprised at ice extent changes in the last few decades?

 

There were, of course, great advances of Arctic sea ice after the peak warmth of the MWP. Examples of this around Greenland are well documented, but Lamb (pp189) gives us this interesting account of how the climate changed in Iceland:

 

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Holidays!

April 17, 2015

By Paul Homewood

 

 

2014-07-11 21.13.30

 

We’re off on holiday next week, so posting will be light.

California’s Long History Of Drought

April 17, 2015

By Paul Homewood  

 

Reposted from Russ Steele’s “The Next Grand Minimum”:

 

The New York Times: In California, a Wet Era May Be Ending

The drought, now in its fourth year, is by many measures the worst since the state began keeping records of temperature and precipitation in the 1800s. And with a population now close to 39 million and a thirsty, $50 billion agricultural industry, California has been affected more by this drought than by any previous one.

But scientists say that in the more ancient past, California and the Southwest occasionally had even worse droughts — so-called megadroughts — that lasted decades. At least in parts of California, in two cases in the last 1,200 years, these dry spells lingered for up to two centuries.

The new normal, scientists say, may in fact be an old one.

 

Source New York Times 

 

After introducing history the writer starts blabbering about global warming, which is not relevant to historic droughts that resulted…

 

 

We are told that California’s drought is the result of global warming. If so, it indicates that the Middle Ages were just as hot as now.

 

 

Read the rest here.

Wind Farm Owners Upset That Their Subsidies May End!

April 16, 2015

By Paul Homewood  

 

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http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2015/04/uk-wind-power-industry-reacts-angrily-to-conservative-plans.html

 

The British wind power industry is up in arms at the prospect that the Tories will scrap subsidies for any more onshore wind farms, if they win the election. (Offshore ones will still be subsidised).

PEI report:

The British wind power industry is up in arms after the ruling Conservative party announced that will end any new public subsidies for wind farms.
The main government party announced the measure as part of its unveiled
manifesto ahead of the forthcoming general election.
The manifesto says wind power has made “a meaningful contribution to our energy mix” but a Tory government would also change the law on new applications so local people have the final say.

Andrew Whalley, chief executive of Renewable Energy Generation, which owns or operates 16 wind farms around the UK and has about 20 plants in development said, “The whole thing is just perverse beyond belief.”
“For a government that claims to be the greenest ever and wants electricity prices to be lower it doesn’t make any sense,” he said, arguing that wind farms in some locations were as cheap as gas plants and supported thousands of jobs.

 

Really Mr Whalley? If wind farms are so efficient, they will not need any subsidy, so you will be able to build them anyway.

As for lower electricity prices, no doubt this would explain why even DECC admit that subsidies for renewables will increase electricity bills by about 30% by 2020.

What you really mean is that you want to be able to carry on raking off millions in subsidies every year, while building your monstrosities that local don’t want.

There! It was not that difficult to say, was it?

Satellite Monitoring Of Arctic Sea Ice Pre 1979

April 16, 2015
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood 

 

h/t Mr Biscuits

 

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 http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf

 

I was pointing out yesterday why it was so inappropriate to deduce trends in Arctic sea ice, using 1979 as the start point. NSIDC, of course, do this supposedly because that is when satellite monitoring began.

Mr Biscuits, however, reminds me that the 1990 IPCC report showed the above graph, with Arctic sea ice extent back to 1972. They gave this narrative:

 

Read more…

Booker On The Swansea Bay Lagoon

April 16, 2015
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By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3041005/CHRISTOPHER-BOOKER-1-billion-lagoon-Britain-s-pottiest-green-scheme.html

 

I published a post a couple of months ago on the proposed tidal lagoon project in Swansea Bay.

Christopher Booker has chapter and verse on it in the Daily Mail today.

 

Just when it seemed that our national energy policy — alongside defence of the realm, an absolute priority, to keep the lights on — couldn’t be managed in a madder or more alarming way, along comes the most bizarre project of all.

This is a £1 billion scheme to build a colossal U-shaped stone breakwater, six miles long, enclosing the whole of Swansea Bay in South Wales, containing 16 giant submerged turbines, whose blades would be seven metres across.

The idea is that these would be driven by the water pouring through them from both directions by the 30ft daily rise and fall of the Bristol Channel’s tides, the second highest in the world.

Read more…

Hottest Year? Not According To Satellites, Joe!

April 16, 2015

By Paul Homewood

 

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Even at this early stage of the year, there is a concerted effort to make it the “warmest evah”.

Joe Romm has this graph of the GISS numbers for the first three months of the year, and Gavin has clearly been busy!

 

 

JanMarNASA

 

 

Unfortunately, the more comprehensive and accurate satellites show no such thing.

 

Read more…

Why Measuring Arctic Ice Trends From 1979 Is Gross Deception

April 15, 2015

By Paul Homewood  

 

n_plot

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

 

Officially, we only started monitoring Arctic sea ice extents by satellite from 1979. We know however that this is not the whole story. For instance, HH Lamb tells us:

Kukla & Kukla (1974) report that the area of snow and ice, integrated over the year across the Northern Hemisphere, was 12% more in 1973 than in 1967, when the first satellite surveys were made.

 

What we also know is that 1979 in particular, and the 1970’s generally, were exceptionally cold years in and around the Arctic, as the Iceland Met Office graph below of Stykkisholmur temperatures clearly shows.

 

sth_hiti_enska

http://en.vedur.is/climatology/articles/nr/1213

 

We find the same pattern of cycles in temperature hitting the bottom at this time all around the Arctic.

 

Read more…