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Met Office Predicted The Cold Weather That They Did Not Predict!

February 24, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

23 February 2018:

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Conditions over the weekend and into the early part of next week will become increasingly cold, possibly exceptionally cold.

Yellow National Severe Weather Warnings for snow are in force for parts of eastern and southeast England from 4pm on Monday and for large parts of the UK through Tuesday and Wednesday.

Snow showers are expected to develop widely during the start of the week, with some locations likely to see accumulations of 5 to 10 cm. Although other sites may see less frequent showers leading to much smaller accumulations up to 2 cm.

The very cold conditions, which are likely to be the coldest spell of weather for several years, are likely to remain in place for the remainder of next week. The cold easterly wind will persist bringing a significant wind chill which will make it feel several degrees colder than thermometers indicate. Even without the wind chill some locations will struggle to get above 0 °C by day, with night-time temperatures ranging down to -8 °C quite widely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/freezing-start-to-spring

  

 

16 February 2018:

 

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There is increasing confidence that the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming above the North Pole could lead to prolonged cold conditions over the UK, increasing the risk of easterly wind and significant snow.

Prof Adam Scaife, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “Signs of this event appeared in forecasts from late January and in the last few days we have seen a dramatic rise in air temperature, known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, at around 30km above the North Pole. This warming results from a breakdown of the usual high-altitude westerly winds and it often leads to a switch in our weather: with cold easterly conditions more likely to dominate subsequent UK weather.”

These events are well reproduced and can be predicted in our computer models and although there is still uncertainty around the outcome of this particular event, there is an increased risk of cold conditions in the latter part of February, including the possibility of heavy snowfall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-potential-impacts-on-uk

 

 

26 January 2018:

 

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners 

 

The 3-month outlook is based on:

  • Observations
  • Several numerical observations systems
  • Expert judgement

Say no more!

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Al Gore’s Chinese Smoke And Mirrors

February 24, 2018
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By Paul Homewood

 

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http://dailycaller.com/2018/02/20/al-gore-cherry-picks-data-paris-accord/

 

The likes of Al Gore and the BBC love to reel out figures supposedly showing how quickly China is building new renewable capacity.

Anyone not familiar with the actual data might think that the Chinese will be running half of their economy on renewable energy in the not too distant future.

As we know though, anything Gore or the BBC tell us needs to be treated with the utmost suspicion.

Read more…

Met Office Claim Of “Heavier Summer Downpours” Not Borne Out By Actual Data

February 23, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2014/summer-rainfall-and-climate-change

 

Back in 2014, the Met Office’s Lizzie Kendon jointly authored a paper, “Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model”.

The Met Office reported:

June 2014 – A recent research paper which appeared in Nature Climate Change has looked at how summer rainfall may change in future with a changing climate. Here, the lead author of the paper, Dr Lizzie Kendon from the Met Office, gives some additional insight into some aspects of the research.

This research aimed to understand how hourly rainfall may change in future with global warming. This involved running a very high resolution model, similar to the one we use for forecasting, to look at summer rainfall patterns over a 13-year period both now and at 2100.
Clearly potential conditions around 2100 in the UK are subject to variables such as the amount of human greenhouse gas emissions emitted, so we have to make some assumptions. We chose to use the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario – which is their highest end scenario which would see the most warming.

Why did we choose the highest IPCC (RCP8.5) scenario?

In this study we are trying to understand how hourly rainfall may change in the future with global warming. We chose the highest scenario in order to allow us to identify any signal of change above natural climate variability. The fact that we used the highest scenario, however, doesn’t mean we cannot translate our findings to lower emission scenarios or to time periods earlier this century. What we have confidence in is the direction of the change – namely in an increase in heavy summer downpours in future. That direction of change is not expected to vary between high and low emissions scenarios. Further research in the future could help narrow down how much heavier rainfall is likely to be under different IPCC scenarios and give more detail overall, but – given how computer intensive the study was – this is likely to take some time.

Why does our study only consider the southern UK?

The high resolution climate model used in this study, needed to allow us to examine changes in short-duration intense storms, is very computationally expensive. Even running for just the southern half of the UK, it took the Met Office’s supercomputer – one of the most powerful in the world – nine months to complete the simulations.
The southern UK was chosen for this initial study as convective storms, which are responsible for delivering intense summer downpours, are more common in that area. In addition we are interested in examining urban effects, and London is the largest urban area in the UK – so it made sense to include it in the study area. Similar climate change simulations for the northern half of the UK are currently being set up, and will be examined in a future study.

How robust are these results?

These results are based on one climate model and so we cannot assess modelling uncertainties. Although this model shows almost five times more events exceeding high thresholds indicative of serious flash flooding, we need to do more research before we can be confident of this figure. We have more confidence in the direction of the change – with increases in the intensity of heavy rain consistent with what we expect theoretically as the world warms. We need to wait for other centres to run similarly detailed simulations to see whether their results support these findings.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2014/summer-rainfall-and-climate-change

 

As Lizzie Kendon makes clear in the video (in the above report), summer downpours will become heavier in the future, according to her models.

Read more…

Offshore Wind Fiasco: Renewables Industry Faces $Billions In Compensation For Early Repairs

February 23, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

From GWPF:

 

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Ørsted must repair up to 2,000 wind turbine blades because the leading edge of the blades have become worn down after just a few years at sea.

The company has a total of 646 wind turbines from Siemens Gamesa, which may potentially be affected to some extent, Ørsted confirmed.

The wind turbine owner will not disclose the bill, but says that the financial significance is “small”.

Siemens Gamesa also does not want to comment on the costs, but the company’s Danish subsidiary has just provided 4.5 billion Danish Krone ($750 million) or 16% of its revenue to guarantee its commitments. […]

Ørsted’s problems mean, among other things, that almost 300 blades at its offshore wind farm at Anholt have to be taken down after just a few years of operation, sailed ashore and transported to Siemens Gamesa’s factory in Aalborg.

However, it is far from just the Anholt Park that is affected. The blades at several British Ørsted offshore wind farms must also be repaired after just a few years on the water.

The total bill is uncertain, but according to Finans’s information, the manufacturer’s warranty typically covers the first five years. However, there has been disagreement between Ørsted and Siemens Gamesa as to whether the problems are covered by the guarantee or are a case of ordinary wear and tear.

https://www.thegwpf.com/offshore-wind-fiasco-green-industry-faces-billions-in-compensation-for-early-repairs/

RHS Beclown Themselves Again

February 23, 2018
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By Paul Homewood

 

This appeared in  Royal Horticultural Society’s “The Garden Magazine” last October:

 

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The RHS Climate Scientist believes that UK summers are becoming drier.

 

Meanwhile, back in the real world:

 

England Rainfall - Summer

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

 

Gardens seem to manage well enough the enormous year to year variability in English summer weather, which completely drowns out any long term trend anyway.

 

If RHS want to make some budget cuts, I suggest they start with Eleanor Webster. I sometimes think climate science is a form of mental illness.

Shiver Me Timbers!

February 23, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

It’s going to get much colder in the next week or two!

 

 

Fossil Fuels and Emissions Forecast To Continue To Rise – BP Energy Outlook

February 22, 2018
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By Paul Homewood

 

This year’s BP Energy Outlook is now out:

 

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 https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html

 

These are the highlights:

The speed of the energy transition is uncertain and the new Outlook considers a range of scenarios. Its evolving transition (ET) scenario, which assumes that government policies, technologies and societal preferences evolve in a manner and speed similar to the recent past, expects:

  • Fast growth in developing economies drives up global energy demand a third higher.
  • The global energy mix is the most diverse the world has ever seen by 2040, with oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each contributing around 25%.
  • Renewables are by far the fastest-growing fuel source, increasing five-fold and providing around 14% of primary energy.
  • Demand for oil grows over much of Outlook period before plateauing in the later years.
  • Natural gas demand grows strongly and overtakes coal as the second largest source of energy.
  • Oil and gas together account for over half of the world’s energy
  • Global coal consumption flatlines with Chinese coal consumption seeming increasingly likely to have plateaued.
  • The number of electric cars grows to around 15% of the car parc, but because of the much higher intensity with which they are used, account for 30% of passenger vehicle kilometres.
  • Carbon emissions continue to rise, signalling the need for a comprehensive set of actions to achieve a decisive break from the past.

Read more…

New Battery Storage Launched In Wales–But Who Pays For It?

February 22, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

 

From PEI:

 

 

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UK energy storage developer KiWi Power has launched a multi-million-pound smart battery system in Wales.

The size of three shipping containers, the 4 MW system took three months to build and will provide balancing services to National Grid to regulate the frequency of Britain’s electricity network.

KiWi Power said it “marks a significant milestone in the application of ‘behind-the-meter’ smart battery technology in the UK, with capacity to store enough energy to power thousands of Welsh homes when needed, helping to build a low carbon economy in Wales”.

The system is located at Cenin Renewables at Parc Stormy near Bridgend, a 20-acre cluster of integrated clean energy technologies that includes a solar farm, an anaerobic digestion plant and a wind turbine.

“This is all about having green energy in reserve and we are delighted to play our part delivering a reliable, sustainable power source whilst providing local economic development and helping Wales reach its low emissions targets,” said Martyn Popham, Cenin managing director.

He added: “Smart batteries are both green and cost-effective, reducing the need for inefficient backup power stations by allowing excess energy to be stored and used when the sun isn’t shining and the wind has stopped blowing”.

http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2018/02/kiwi-power-unveils-uk-smart-battery-energy-storage-system.html

 

 

Enough energy to power thousands of Welsh homes when needed? Impressed?

Well, perhaps not!

According to Kiwi Power themselves:

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https://www.kiwipowered.com/kiwi-power-completes-largest-behind-the-meter-battery-to-date/

In other words, it can only supply its 4MW for 72 minutes, hardly long enough to be of any use to those “thousands of Welsh homes” when the sun isn’t shining and the wind has stopped blowing.

 

 

In reality it has nothing at all to do with “supplying homes”. It is simply just a money making scheme.

The FFR contract it has is worth £666k a year, all of course to be paid for by bill payers.

The National Grid has a licence obligation to control system frequency at 50Hz plus or minus 1%, and has always had a range of tolls to enable it to do so.

However, as energy consultants Origami Energy explain:

Firm Frequency Response is a service provided by energy users to National Grid, which uses approved assets to quickly reduce demand or increase generation to help balance the grid and avoid power outages.

The current UK power network is becoming increasingly challenging to balance. At times of high volatility, National Grid needs additional flexible generation and demand to balance the system and avoid power outages. Firm frequency response (FFR) uses approved assets to quickly reduce demand or increase generation when there is a large deviation in system frequency. Energy asset owners are rewarded for providing this service all year round, even if it is never deployed.

https://origamienergy.com/firm-frequency-response/

 

In other words, storage systems like Kiwi’s are only needed because of the increasing capacity of unreliable wind and solar power.

Kiwi themselves make no bones about their objective:

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https://www.kiwipowered.com/

 

And as Clean Energy News reports, most of the profits will go to an “unnamed investor”:

The project has used third party finance from an unnamed investor which will take the lion’s share of the FFR revenue, while Kiwi takes a fee for managing the battery and Cenin also gets a share of the project’s revenue.

“Arctic sea ice extent at its lowest for at least 1500 years”–Debunked By Three Scientific Papers

February 21, 2018
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By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Andyg55

arctic_sea_ice

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/02/21/noaa-continue-to-pump-out-arctic-lies/

 

Further to NOAA’s claim that Arctic sea ice extent is at its lowest for at least 1500 years, Kenneth Richard highlighted three studies last year that show the claim to be bunkum.

Re-posted from No Tricks Zone:

Earlier this year, Stein et al., 2017 published a reconstruction of Arctic sea ice variations throughout the Holocene that appeared to establish that there is more Arctic sea ice now than for nearly all of the last 10,000 years.

The study region, the Chukchi Sea, was deemed representative of most of the Arctic, as the authors asserted that “the increase in sea ice extent during the late Holocene seems to be a circum-Arctic phenomenon as PIP25-based sea ice records from the Fram Strait, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea  display a generally quite similar evolution, all coinciding with the decrease in solar radiation.”

The proxy data used to reconstruct Arctic-wide sea ice variations over the Holocene (PIP25) clearly show that modern sea ice extent has only modestly retreated relative to the heights reached during the Little Ice Age (the 17th and 18th centuries),  and that the from about 1400 A.D.on through the rest of the 10,000-year-long Holocene, Arctic sea ice extent was much lower than it is today.


Read more…

NOAA Continue To Pump Out Arctic Lies

February 21, 2018
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By Paul Homewood

More junk science from the Arctic alarmists at NOAA:

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The Arctic Ocean once froze reliably every year. Those days are over.

Arctic sea ice extent has been measured by satellites since the 1970s. And scientists can sample ice cores, permafrost records, and tree rings to make some assumptions about the sea ice extent going back 1,500 years. And when you put that all on a chart, well, it looks a little scary.

In December, NOAA released its latest annual Arctic Report Card, which analyzes the state of the frozen ocean at the top of our world. Overall, it’s not good.

“The Arctic is going through the most unprecedented transition in human history,” Jeremy Mathis, director of NOAA’s Arctic research program, said at a press conference. “This year’s observations confirm that the Arctic shows no signs of returning to the reliably frozen state it was in just a decade ago.”

Read more…