Don’t Blame The Youngsters For Falling For The Lies, It’s Our Fault.
By Paul Homewood
This is how millennial nerds view the climate:
And this is the reality:
I actually feel very, very sorry that we have failed the younger generation so badly.
Goodbye, education.
Exceptional Warmth? Not In Central England!
By Paul Homewood
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/september2016_temperature
There is one more thing to add to the story about the “heatwave” earlier this month, when supposedly we had the highest September temperatures since 1911.
As we know, this claim hinged on two stations at Gravesend and Faversham, which are known to be hot spots and which have data only going back to 1995, along with Heathrow, Northolt and Kew.
In the rest of the country, nothing exceptional seems to have happened.
While it may be true that a little corner of South East England, which always tends to be the hottest part of the country, had high temperatures, by far the best representation of temperatures in England is given by the Central England Temperature series, which covers a vast swathe of middle England. It is representative of a triangular central area of the United Kingdom enclosed by Bristol, Manchester and London.
The highest CET this month was 25.0C on the 14th, well below the 34.4C set at Gravesend.
It turns out that such temperatures are far from uncommon in Central England.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html
Since 1878, there have been 64 days as hot or hotter, about one every two years.
As with the rest of the country, those September days in 1906, and again in 1911, were incomparably warmer than this year. Indeed, the weather on the 14th of this month was so unremarkable that it was not even as warm as September 4th 2013.
Not that you will hear any of this from the Met Office or BBC!
The Nerdy Cartoon That Explains Why Millennials Don’t Have A Clue About Climate Change
By Paul Homewood
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/09/26/millennials-dont-clue-climate-change/
Dellers writes:
There’s a cute, nerdy cartoon – A Timeline of Earth’s Average Temperature – that has been doing the rounds on the internet by bestselling author Randall Munroe purporting to illustrate the dire, unprecedented threat that is man-made global warming.
Germany’s New Faversham
By Paul Homewood
It looks like Germany has its own Faversham!
From No Tricks:
At the Germany-based European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE), Helmut Kuntz writes that Germany’s all-time record high temperature recorded last year, 2015, is likely an artifact of the urban heat island effect (UHI) and instrumentation error margins.
Photo right: Kitzingen station
In 2015 the Kitzingen weather station located in southern Germany set a new all-time high when it reached 40.3°C — twice: on July 5 and August 7 — breaking the earlier record of 40.2°C set on 27 July 1983 in Gärmersdorf. The whopping margin: a whole 0.1°C! .
So why is Kitzingen suddenly so hot?
EIKE guest writer Josef Kowatsch has often claimed that the UHI has played a major role in producing the warming effect over the past decades. Recently that claim got a boost of support from University of Wurzburg climate researcher Prof. Heiko Paeth, who in an interview with MAIN POST daily here on September 7, 2016, stated that it likely has more to do with station siting then it does with a climate trend.
According to Prof. Paeth, the high reading can be traced back to Kitzingen having certain special features.
First the town of Kitzingen is located at a relatively low elevation some 20 km east of Wurzburg — situated in the Main Valley at the bottom of a sort of a bowl where heat can collect.
Secondly, he tells the MAIN POST that fresh, westerly winds that normally act to cool Germany in the summertime have been obstructed by a commercial district built not long ago where once a US base had been located. The Main Post writes:
What remains is an obstacle for the air flow from the west. The town has blocked off its fresh air feed-in duct, says Paeth. ‘That could be an explanation for the heat.’”
Instrumentation error margin of +-0.4°C
Moreover Kuntz reports that the Kitzingen station was first put into operation in 2005 and the German DWD weather service equipped it with the electronic PT 100 instrument, which in comparison tests has been shown to produce considerably higher readings. Also such a weather station has a temperature measurement error of +-0.4°C at temperatures of 40°C:
Accuracy of the WXT 520 sensor for weather stations. As the ambient temperature rises over 0°C, so does the margin of error.
Kuntz adds that if the urban heat island effect is the reason for the 0.1°C temperature increase over the last 32 years in Germany, then the supposed climate change warming of the planet looks like as follows:
– Globally it has not gotten warmer over the past 103 years.
– The global temperature upper limit temperature has not changed at all in 74 years.
– It has not gotten warmer in Germany over the past 32 years.
– If the “discarded” older measurements were used, it would be much warmer earlier than currently stated.
At the Germany-based European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE), Helmut Kuntz writes that Germany’s all-time record high temperature recorded last year, 2015, is likely an artifact of the urban heat island effect (UHI) and instrumentation error margins.
In 2015 the Kitzingen weather station located in southern Germany set a new all-time high when it reached 40.3°C — twice: on July 5 and August 7 — breaking the earlier record of 40.2°C set on 27 July 1983 in Gärmersdorf. The whopping margin: a whole 0.1°C! Photo right: Kitzingen station.
So why is Kitzingen suddenly so hot?
EIKE guest writer Josef Kowatsch has often claimed that the UHI has played a major role in producing the warming effect over the past decades. Recently that claim got a boost of support from University of Wurzburg climate researcher Prof. Heiko Paeth, who in an interview with MAIN POST daily here on September 7, 2016, stated that it likely has more to do with station siting then it does with a climate trend.
According to Prof. Paeth, the high reading can be traced back to Kitzingen having certain special features.
First the town of Kitzingen is located at a relatively low elevation some 20 km east of Wurzburg — situated in the Main Valley at the bottom of a sort of a bowl where heat can collect.
Secondly, he tells the MAIN POST that fresh, westerly winds that normally act to cool Germany in the summertime have been obstructed by a commercial district built not long ago where once a US base had been located. The Main Post writes:
What remains is an obstacle for the air flow from the west. The town has blocked off its fresh air feed-in duct, says Paeth. ‘That could be an explanation for the heat.’”
Instrumentation error margin of +-0.4°C
Moreover Kuntz reports that the Kitzingen station was first put into operation in 2005 and the German DWD weather service equipped it with the electronic PT 100 instrument, which in comparison tests has been shown to produce considerably higher readings. Also such a weather station has a temperature measurement error of +-0.4°C at temperatures of 40°C:
Accuracy of the WXT 520 sensor for weather stations. As the ambient temperature rises over 0°C, so does the margin of error.
Kuntz adds that if the urban heat island effect is the reason for the 0.1°C temperature increase over the last 32 years in Germany, then the supposed climate change warming of the planet looks like as follows:
– Globally it has not gotten warmer over the past 103 years.
– The global temperature upper limit temperature has not changed at all in 74 years.
– It has not gotten warmer in Germany over the past 32 years.
– If the “discarded” older measurements were used, it would be much warmer earlier than currently stated.
I recall NOAA, not to mention the usual suspects like Borenstein and Romm, making a lot of fuss about this last year, calling it record heat in Germany.
As I pointed out at the time, the fact that the new record was equalled just a month later at the same site suggested that the temperature measurements were not reliable. I was also unimpressed that 32 years of supposed global warming had only managed to lift temperatures by a tenth of a degree.
Now it appears we have another Faversham on our hands, a station with only a handful of years of record, and clear issues about siting.
But it appears that the German Met Agency cares no more about the accuracy of its “new record”, in its quest to find ever higher temperatures, than our own Met Office does.
Experts Warn Of “Significant Damage” From Smart Meters
By Paul Homewood
From PEI:
Analysis from engineering experts suggests significant damage could be caused to the UK’s power infrastructure unless more steps are taken to improve security around smart metering.
The FT reports that the Royal Academy of Engineering and private technology companies have raised concerns about the meters’ security, according to a report from the Commons science and technology committee.
Nick Hunn, a wireless technology consultant, said he was worried about the risk of “rogue programmers” in metering companies. 
“If I were working for one of those companies, I could insert code that would make every meter turn off on a particular date in a year’s time,” he said, adding the inclusion of an isolation switch in every smart meter was “an unnecessary risk”.
“If somebody could hack into that or turn off very large numbers of meters by mistake, the sudden shock of taking them off the grid … would cause significant damage,” he said.
The academy added that “disruption to energy and gas supplies at a massive scale is possible”.
Britain’s electronic intelligence agency GCHQ had assured the government earlier this year as to the steps taken to ensure meter security. These included security controls aimed at preventing mass disconnection, and special arrangements made to vet people with “access to sensitive system components”.
More than 3.6m smart meters have already been installed in homes and businesses and 53m are due by 2020, part of a £10.9bn programme.
Advocates say the meters’ ability to show people how much energy they are using will encourage consumers to switch off lights or buy more efficient appliances, lowering their bills and cutting greenhouse gas pollution from electricity generation.
Is there any length that the government won’t go to, to damage the country in its infantile obsession with climate change?
One of the original justifications for installing smart meters, was that they would mean cheaper bills as they avoided the need for energy companies to send people round reading meters. Like many things, their new technology has already been well and truly overtaken by something called the internet. We are all able now to read our own meters, and send them back to our energy supplier via our computers.
The idea, that we will now switch off lights because we had not realised they cost money, must assume we are all idiots.
The real reason for these things, of course, is that the Grid can shut us off whenever they feel like it.
And we are forced to pay £10 billion for the privilege!
Why The UK Should Not Sign The Paris Agreement
By Paul Homewood
As you may be aware, a new group known as Clexit has recently been formed. Its aim is to campaign for countries either to refuse to ratify the Paris Agreement, or withdraw from it.
Clexit is already formed in 25 countries. One of the aims is to produce a well written case against ratification in each, and therefore I have drafted one for the UK.
Any comments would be welcome, and will be considered for final inclusion.
Please note that I have purposely laid this out as a largely political argument. I have therefore excluded any references to climate science for two reasons:
a) I do not want it to be summarily dismissed as the work of a “denier”.
b) The scientific case deserves to be presented in its own right, and preferably written by someone better qualified than me!
BACKGROUND
Last December, the world’s leaders, in the words of the UNFCCC, reached a landmark agreement to combat climate change. However, the Paris Agreement only comes into force once it has been ratified by at least 55 parties, with at least 55% of global GHG emissions.
The UK is not a party to the Agreement in its own right, nor has it made its own separate Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). Instead, it is the EU which has represented all its member countries.
Thus far, the EU has made no move to ratify, or indicated when it will do so.
The UK, uniquely, has a legal commitment to cut GHG emissions by 80% of 1990 levels by 2050, courtesy of the Climate Change Act.
REASONS WHY THE UK SHOULD NOT SIGN
There are a number of reasons why the UK should not ratify the Paris Agreement:
Mexico To Start Fracking Next Year
By Paul Homewood
http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/fracking-expected-to-begin-next-year/
From Mexico News Daily:
Fracking in the shale oil fields of Mexico could begin next year, the Energy Secretary said at a meeting yesterday in Houston, Texas.
Pedro Joaquín Coldwell was speaking to energy company executives and others at Rice University when he advised that “everything will be ready by March” to begin auctions for the untapped fields.
The Mexican government put a hold on inviting bids from shale drillers when prices plunged two years ago.
“We thought the industry wouldn’t be interested,” he said at the event, whose focus was Mexico’s energy reforms.
Two other factors were the lack of environmental regulations governing hydraulic fracturing and the pipelines needed to move natural gas, a byproduct of shale oil drilling.
Coldwell said the environmental regulations should be ready by March.
He also told the gathering that Mexico has attracted US $22.4 billion in energy investments from 59 different companies since the reforms, introduced by the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto, went into effect.
The investments include $10 billion for 10,000 kilometers of pipelines, $7 billion in exploration and production and $2.5 billion for new seismic maps to track oil and gas reserves.
Mexico’s shale fields are located across the border from the highly productive Eagle Ford shale formation in Texas.
– See more at: http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/fracking-expected-to-begin-next-year/#sthash.6vZ4hIdS.dpuf
Fracking in the shale oil fields of Mexico could begin next year, the Energy Secretary said at a meeting yesterday in Houston, Texas.
Pedro Joaquín Coldwell was speaking to energy company executives and others at Rice University when he advised that “everything will be ready by March” to begin auctions for the untapped fields.
The Mexican government put a hold on inviting bids from shale drillers when prices plunged two years ago.
“We thought the industry wouldn’t be interested,” he said at the event, whose focus was Mexico’s energy reforms.
Two other factors were the lack of environmental regulations governing hydraulic fracturing and the pipelines needed to move natural gas, a byproduct of shale oil drilling.
Coldwell said the environmental regulations should be ready by March.
He also told the gathering that Mexico has attracted US $22.4 billion in energy investments from 59 different companies since the reforms, introduced by the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto, went into effect.
The investments include $10 billion for 10,000 kilometers of pipelines, $7 billion in exploration and production and $2.5 billion for new seismic maps to track oil and gas reserves.
Mexico’s shale fields are located across the border from the highly productive Eagle Ford shale formation in Texas.
– See more at: http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/fracking-expected-to-begin-next-year/#sthash.6vZ4hIdS.dpuf
Fracking in the shale oil fields of Mexico could begin next year, the Energy Secretary said at a meeting yesterday in Houston, Texas.
Pedro Joaquín Coldwell was speaking to energy company executives and others at Rice University when he advised that “everything will be ready by March” to begin auctions for the untapped fields.
The Mexican government put a hold on inviting bids from shale drillers when prices plunged two years ago.
“We thought the industry wouldn’t be interested,” he said at the event, whose focus was Mexico’s energy reforms.
Two other factors were the lack of environmental regulations governing hydraulic fracturing and the pipelines needed to move natural gas, a byproduct of shale oil drilling.
Coldwell said the environmental regulations should be ready by March.
He also told the gathering that Mexico has attracted US $22.4 billion in energy investments from 59 different companies since the reforms, introduced by the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto, went into effect.
The investments include $10 billion for 10,000 kilometers of pipelines, $7 billion in exploration and production and $2.5 billion for new seismic maps to track oil and gas reserves.
Mexico’s shale fields are located across the border from the highly productive Eagle Ford shale formation in Texas.
http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/fracking-expected-to-begin-next-year/
The idea that Mexico will leave these “stranded assets” in the ground is ridiculous.
Mexico pledged in its INDC to reduce GHG emissions by 22% of Business as Usual, by 2030. As with most of these promises, you have to watch the pea. In this case, Mexico’s pledge will actually mean GHG emissions are 7% higher than in 2006, when the last stocktake was done.
Mexico is almost totally dependent on fossil fuels and this won’t change in the foreseeable future.
BP Energy Review
It is also heavily reliant on the dollars that the export of oil brings in.
No amount of spin will change these facts.
India’s Growth Spurs Oil Demand
By Paul Homewood
From Bloomberg:
India has become the center of the world’s oil demand growth and the country’s economic growth will affect global commodities, Citigroup Inc. said in a research note.
The world’s second-largest country by population after China will see its economy expand at about 8 percent a year through 2021, Citi researchers including Ed Morse said. The country’s working-age population will increase by 220 million over the next 20 years, and about 240 million people will move to cities.
Urbanization and rising incomes will boost demand for transportation fuels, gold jewelry and electricity generation, while looser regulations should spur increased exports of iron ore into the market. India’s economy won’t copy China’s near-decade of double-digit economic growth that pushed oil prices into the $100-a-barrel range, but will be enough to impact global supply-and-demand balances of several commodities, Morse said.
“While India is no China, the sub-continent’s largest economy is becoming the third largest oil consumer and importer of oil, with a tangible impact on oil, coal and iron ore markets, less so on metals,” Morse said. “As India’s base rises, so too should its global commodities’ impacts.”
Citi expects 2016 to be the best in four years for commodity investments. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 7.4 percent this year. Oil, zinc, copper and soft commodities will be the best investments in 2017, with Brent crude seen averaging $60 a barrel after ending this year around $50.
India’s crude demand has grown by 350,000 barrels a day this year, higher than China, as the country surpassed Japan to be the world’s third-largest oil buyer. Gasoline demand has risen 14 percent this year and should continue to increase at double-digit rates as car and motorcycle purchases climb, Morse said.
Coal demand will grow between 6 percent and 8 percent a year through 2020 as the country tries to electrify more rural areas. Domestic production of coal for power will rise even faster, reducing imports, while a strong domestic steel-production outlook means the nation will have to increase metallurgical coal imports.
The second graph is particularly, illustrating how global oil demand will continue growing through 2040, fuelled by India and China.
Oil production last year amounted to 91 million barrels a day, so, according to the IEA figures, we are looking at something like a 15% increase by 2040.
“Experts” like Mark Carney and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard tell us that oil will soon become a stranded asset.
China stokes global coal growth
By Paul Homewood
https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/9264-China-stokes-global-coal-growth
Chinadialogue reports:
Chinese companies and banks are continuing to drive global coal expansion, as state owned companies, backed by state loans, build coal-fired power plants across the world. This is despite commitments from China’s top leaders to deliver clean energy and low carbon infrastructure for developing countries.
The world’s largest carbon emitter aims to reposition itself as a global green power. In a joint US-China statement at the White House in September 2015, President Xi Jinping agreed to strictly control public investment for overseas projects with high pollution and carbon emissions. China won praise for promising to peak its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 at the UN climate summit in Paris in 2015 – and trying to wean itself slowly off coal. Chinese manufacturers are now major suppliers of cheap solar and wind parts worldwide.
However, these efforts are being undercut by Chinese backed coal power plants planned and under construction from Indonesia to Pakistan, Turkey to the Balkans –as well as in Africa and Latin America. These could boost global emissions and lock developing countries into fossil fuel intensive energy systems for decades.
New data collected by chinadialogue and the CEE Bankwatch Network shows that since 2015 many new Chinese coal plant project deals have been announced and are under development. “The majority of these projects are under loan consideration by China’s policy-driven financing, and supplied by equipment from the country’s largest power generation manufacturers,” said Wawa Wang, public finance policy officer at CEE Bankwatch Network.
Chinese banks and companies are currently involved in at least 79 coal fired generation projects, with a total capacity of over 52 GW, more than the 46 GW of planned coal closures in the US by 2020.
Full story here.
There is little surprise at any of this. I have been reporting for some time about such developments.
As I have commented before, China will always operate in its own self interest.
Temperature Adjustments In Greenland, Iceland & Norway
By Paul Homewood
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/stdata/
When I started posting about how GHCN and GISS were altering the historical temperature record a few years ago, many thought I was making it up.
Things have now gone well past that stage now, and now GISS actually offer a tool to chart actual and adjusted temperatures.
Below are the stations in Greenland, Iceland and Arctic Norway, which have data going back prior to 1950, and where historical temperatures have been adjusted downwards.
No stations in this part of the world have been adjusted in the opposite direction, and only one, Vardo, has been left unaltered.
