Are Record Temperatures And Extreme Weather The Same?
As part of their response to the Booker article, the Met Office state:
Met Office research supports climate research centres around the world which concludes we expect more extremes of heat and rainfall as the world continues to warm. The article says this ‘simply hasn’t happened’ but in fact, research shows there has been an increase in both. While here in the UK, we have also seen an increase in the number of temperature and rainfall records.
http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/08/07/met-office-in-the-media-7-august-2015/
They link to a previous report which says
Since 2000, there have been 10 times as many hot records as cold records.
We know that the Met Office are desperate to sell the extreme weather scare, but this is nonsense.
Given the small amount of warming seen at the end of the 20thC in Britain (a warming which has stopped) it is inevitable that hot records would exceed cold ones. You might just as well argue that the 19thC was extreme as there were more cold records than hot.
Extreme temperatures are surely those which fall well outside the “norm”. But what is the norm?
Surely this is the sort of climate we have been experiencing in the recent past, say 30 years?
Is there any reason why, for instance, the 19thC should be regarded as normal?
The real test for extreme temperatures then is whether in our current climate we get more days or months out at either hot or cold extremes, in other words more volatile.
I will be studying this later.
But I’ll leave this thought. If a temperature of 80F was regarded as extreme in John o Groats, would it also be regarded so in London?
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Thought you were on holiday, Paul!
Wladimir Koppen and Rudolf Geiger identified 30 different climate classifications, and Holdridge identified 38 bioclimatic ‘life zones’ which is still probably not enough 🙂
I’m pretty sure that the word extreme is not a scientific term as it has no unit of measure. It means what ever the user wants it to mean, so in essence it has no meaning.
Paul – I live in Brussels and I thought you might be interested in this Belgian article (in French) on the adjustments that the IRM (L’Institut Royal Météorologique ) have made to the Uccle temperature record:
http://www.meteo.be/meteo/view/fr/20257907-La+mesure+des+temperatures+extr%C3%AAmes+a+Uccle.html
I know that you have referred to Uccle (in Brussels) in some of your posts so thought this could be useful. I can send you the translation that I have made if you wish. They go into details of how and why they have cooled the pre-1983 temperatures. Unlike the UK Met Office, they appear to be attempting to justify their adjustments. But how scientifically valid these are I cannot say!
Pathway: extreme means “we managed to squeeze this one out”. It ranks above Climate Change© and just below “unprecedented”, which in turn is just above “how the hell can we explain this?”
If since 2000 there has been 10 times as many hot records as cold records, and given there has been virtually no change in the average, it probably means that since records began average temperatures have risen. Globally most of the temperature data sets are post war, and every data set shows a rise in temperatures in the last quarter of last century. With 10 times as many hot records as cold means that weather has not become noticeably more extreme.
As for the final point about 80F in John O Groats being extreme, I can fill in a little fact. I spent the summer of 1984 in Wick, 20 miles south of John O Groats. Whilst there temperatures reached a new record of 26.2C or 79F. You go up to the top of Scotland for the warmth of the people, not for the weather. Also if you like ancient history. Caithness and Orkney are full of Bronze Age monuments, when the climate was likely warmer than today.
From Steve Goddard
Hot Days In The Midwest Occur Half As Often As They Did 100 Years Ago. In fact, the frequency of hot days in the midwest has dropped by more than 50% over the past century.
http://realclimatescience.com/2015/07/hot-days-in-the-midwest-occur-half-as-often-as-they-did-100-years-ago/
But that probably counts as extreme weather too.
I wonder if the alarmists at the Met Office go to Wick for their holidays, to avoid the blistering heat down south ?
Three questions for all,…
1. What SHOULD the average global temperature be, and why?
2. What level of summer Arctic sea ice SHOULD there be, and why?
3. What SHOULD the level of atmospheric CO2 be, and why?
Paul, there appears to be 2 versions of the MO’s CET chart:-
One ‘Based on Horton and Parker (2005)’ covering 1878 – 2014 that you show on your 1st August post ‘Record Breaking Cold In The UK’
and one on the present day MO CET page ‘Based on Parker et al (1992) covering 1772 – 2014.
Any idea why the 2 versions and where the ‘Based on Horton and Parker (2005)’ came from?
Sorry if you have already covered it and if so could you pls just point me in the right direction? I have tried to check back but so far to no avail.
I’ve had this argument before, with Richard Betts. After a long debate about whether storms etc are increasing, the bottom line was that there had been an increase in “mild nights” 🙂
Mild nights, not surprising with all the tarmac and concrete storing the daytime heat and releasing it at night. Apparently our yearly production of concrete is around 11.5 billion tons so if someone wants to get out their calculator and using Newton’s law of cooling, the specific heat of the concrete etc I’m sure they could account for the mild night time temperatures
There is more extreme weather! I set a record for the hottest July in the history of my station. Also set a record for the coldest July in the history of my record. That is because it is the first year of my record. Not trying to appear silly, put just trying to point out that there are ways to claim that there are more climatic extremes that are bogus.
By the way, my high temperature today was 72 degrees, which is outrageously cool for the Washington, DC on 8/10.