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Costa Brava Has Moved To Blackpool Says David Viner

December 3, 2012

By Paul Homewood

 

David Viner

 

He was the man who had us rolling in the aisles with the epic “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past “. Of course, we must not be too unkind. Everyone is entitled to one mistake. He made that claim in 2000, but fast forward six years, and it seems as if he was at it again.

In 2006, he wrote a report that claimed

Climate change could "dramatically" change the face of British tourism in the next 20 years, with European tourists flocking to the UK to escape unbearably hot continental summers, experts say.

Research shows that European tourists may choose to holiday in Britain as resorts nearer to home become too hot.

Weather changes may provide revival opportunities for northern seaside towns such as Blackpool and put new strains on roads and development in southern coastal resorts, a study in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism said.

The likelihood is that Mediterranean summers may be too hot for tourists after 2020, as a result of too much heat and water shortages.

Well, we are nearly half way to 2020, so how is this prediction turning out?

 

 

Let’s start by looking at average maximum summer temperatures in NW England/N Wales (where Blackpool is located).

 

image

Figure 1

Well, it appears that, since 2006, summer temperatures have steadily declined, and are effectively unchanged over the last 40 years. Still, surely there must have been more heat waves than before. After it’s global warming, innit?

The RAF base at Valley in Anglesea is the closest, coastal site to Blackpool that the Met Office publish records for, and sits about 60 miles away. Figure 2 shows the average number of days per year when the maximum temperature reached 25C.

 

image

Figure 2

 

As can be seen, the trend has actually been down since the 1980’s, and the most “warm days” occurred in the 1940’s.

Still surely Mr Viner must have been right in claiming that “continental summers would become unbearably hot”. Navacerrada is a small town near Madrid, and the only “rural” site listed by GISS in Spain with records back as far as 1941. GISS show the temperature trend below.

 

Plot of temperature vs. time

Figure 3

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=643082150000&data_set=14&num_neighbors=1

 

These are, of course, annual trends, but using the GISS data, I have plotted summer mean temperatures in Figure 4.

 

image

Figure 4

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/work/gistemp/STATIONS//tmp.643082150000.14.1/station.txt

 

There is no evidence at all of an increasing trend over the last decade and temperatures since 2006 have averaged 15.8C, a similar level to the late 1940’s.

 

Meanwhile, European tourists, visiting Blackpool at August Bank Holiday this year, would have been thrilled to get away from Spanish sunshine!

 

What to expect: Demi, nine, and Chelsea Brookes, 11, sit in the rain on Blackpool Beach. Forecasters say this is what's in store for the bank holiday weekend

What to expect: Demi, nine, and Chelsea Brookes, 11, sit in the rain on Blackpool Beach. Forecasters say this is what’s in store for the bank holiday weekend

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2190866/UK-weather-Britain-braced-bank-holiday-washout-rain-way.html

 

Reward for Failure

David Viner was working with the Climatic Research Unit at the UEA in 2006. From 2008 to 2011, he had a well paid spell at the British Council, pushing climate change propaganda to developing countries, who had better things to worry about.

When the British Council came to its senses, and decided it had better things to do with taxpayer money, the programme was largely dropped, which did not please Viner too much. Calling the cuts “dangerous to the UK”, Viner complained “But these cuts will impact on the UK government’s agenda to drive forward a global deal on climate change”, adding “ that global action is essential "to protect the UK government’s own agenda" of  deep domestic carbon cuts, which will falter if other nations do not follow suit.”

He now works as an “International Climate Change Expert” at a consultancy outfit called Global Climate Change. His job description runs:-

Working internationally across the public and private sector to develop and deliver strategies aligned to organisational objectives that will deliver high impacting business, environmental and social benefits.

Translation from Mumbo Jumbo – “Making money out of the climate change scare”.

 

I am sick and tired of these so called scientists making junk science predictions, without ever being held accountable for them. I am equally sick of third rate hacks, who cut and paste such statements in the Guardian etc , without even attempting to check a few facts, simply because they accord with their world view.

I would ask how many people have invested money in tourism in Blackpool, in anticipation of Viner’s predicted climate change. But I suspect they would all have had far too much sense.

Meanwhile, I wonder how many of his clients these days are aware of his past failures?

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2 Comments leave one →
  1. Brian H permalink
    December 21, 2012 5:33 am

    Viner would experience great benefit by spending an hour a day chanting, “I’m really, really stupid, and as a result am usually very wrong.”

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