Hottest Australian Summer Not Quite What It Seems!
By Paul Homewood
The Australian BOM have announced that the 2012/13 summer there has been the hottest on record, as their graph below confirms.
The first thing to note, though, is that the five-year trend has been falling in the last few years, and is at the same level as during the late 1970’s. Furthermore, this latest summer follows two cooler than average ones.
But, delve deeper, and it seems that the “hottest summer” claim is not quite as straightforward as it first appears.
Let’s start by looking at the graphs for each individual state.
In none of the seven states/territories was the 2012/13 summer the hottest, or even near to it. The following table summarises the position for each state.
| Ranking | Earliest Hotter Summer | |
| NSW | 7th | 1938 |
| NT | 3rd | 1970 |
| QLD | 4th | 1981 |
| SA | 4th | 1938 |
| TAS | 14th | 1920 |
| VIC | 6th | 1980 |
| WA | 7th | 1972 |
The highest ranked was the Northern Territories, but the past summer was still 0.23C cooler than the record set in 1985. And in every state, hotter summers were experienced many decades ago, as far back as 1920.
So, why was the summer the hottest on record for the nation as a whole? Quite simply, each region has had a hot one at the same time. By contrast, in previous years, the hottest summers in some areas has been offset by cooler ones elsewhere.
Take 1980 as an example. That summer was hotter than 2012 in NSW , Victoria and Tasmania, and almost as hot in SA. Yet WA and NT both had cooler than average ones, thus pulling the national average down.
So is there any significance in this pattern? Maybe, if it represented a much more widespread warming pattern. But, as we know, there is no evidence of this globally. HADCRUT show the whole of 2012 as the 3rd coldest year in the last ten.
And, certainly, a look at the annual numbers for Australia does not suggest that anything unusual at all has been happening in the last few years. Since 2005, the long term trend has dropped back to the post 1980 level. Meanwhile 2012 ranked only 39th warmest since 1910.
Quite simply, one summer in one country cannot “prove” global warming, anymore than a cold winter elsewhere will disprove it.
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
More real scientific evidence, all good everyone knows about Agenda 21. Not happening ! !
Paul, the state graphs only go to 2012. You would think the BOM site would be up to date, but it isn’t. They may have issued press releases and headlines, but they haven’t put the new info into their website, nor made the data and methods public in any form.You would have to calculate the 2013 numbers and update the graphs manually. It’s a lot of work.
Paul, I might be wrong. But the graph titles say to 2012. Though the top graph is being used by other blogs (eg Blair Trewin of the BOM https://theconversation.edu.au/hot-summer-yes-the-hottest-12505) as the 2013 summer figure. Perhaps they have updated the graph but not the title? The raw data appears to be 2012? Worth checking.
Thanks, Jo.
The graphs are definitely for 2012/2013 summer. (I presume it is just their terminology that describes it as “2012”).
It is easy to check, as the graphs have a “download raw dataset” option. So, e.g. the national numbers are :-
Dec 2012 – 1.08
Jan 2013 – 1.76
Feb 2013 – 0.50
Summer Average – 1.11
Same with the state graphs.
Thanks
Paul
The press release from the BOM makes no reference to global warming and states that it was the highest “national” average it even mentions that the individual states did not have highest records individually. This article therefore is just repeating the BOM data. Boring
Bureau of Meteorology confirms it’s been the hottest summer on record
This summer follows a pattern of extremely hot summers in various parts of the world over the past few years.
While the final numbers for the Southern Hemisphere summer will not be confirmed until mid-March, it was the hottest December on record for land areas of the Southern Hemisphere, followed by the hottest January.
No mention of individual states.
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/ho/20130301.shtml
Do you have trouble reading?
From a Sydney perspective,there is no way that this was the hottest summer on record. Are we to assume that they are collecting data in the same positions ,in the shade and not next to air conditioning vents,ashfelt and away from the heat island effects of intensive developments? Can we trust them?
Ross. You may say it as “ashfelt” but it’s actually “ashfalt”!
Just saying!
To be pedantic, it’s ‘asphalt’!