Jet Stream Changes Consistent With Cooling, Not Warming
By Paul Homewood
The one thing, on which there seems to be universal agreement, is that the recent spell of wet weather in the UK has been the direct result of the behaviour of the jet stream.
Over the last couple of months, it has not only moved south of its “usual” position, but also been unusually strong.
And it is not only this winter that this southerly shift has occurred. This same shift was also blamed for recent cold winters , the wet summer of 2012, and the floods of 2007.
Unsurprisingly, attempts have been made to attribute this change in the jet stream to global warming, which is all very strange because we were told in 2008 that global warming was shifting the jet stream poleward.
There is actually scientific logic for this, but, more importantly, this poleward shift had been confirmed by measurements taken between 1979 and 2001, along with evidence that the jet stream had weakened. (See here).
This should not come as any great surprise, since HH Lamb identified that the jet stream moved towards the equator during the 1960’s and 70’s, when the Earth was cooling down.
The theory of a poleward shift is also built into Met Office models. Their “Climate: Observations, projections and impacts” Report, published in 2012 and authored by Julia Slingo , projects that Southern Europe will become drier, and Northern Europe wetter, as the jet stream and associated rainbelts move north.
As ever, in Climate Science, things are not quite as straightforward as we are led to believe.
Global cooling, anyone?
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/02/m-climate_parasites_the_answer_to_climate_change_deniers.html
Reblogged this on Cornwall Wind Watch.
Did somebody mention cooling?
http://pjmedia.com/blog/global-cooling-a-far-more-dangerous-fate/
http://pjmedia.com/blog/cooling-kills-governments-must-shift-to-cold-preparation/
I remember reading, in Brian Fagan’s book “The Little Ice Age”, about the Great Famine of Europe in the early 14th century, which was triggered by a series of extremely rainy (and relatively cool) years.
Wikipedia describes the start of this very lean period in Medieval history. “In the spring of 1315, unusually heavy rain began in much of Europe. Throughout the spring and summer, it continued to rain and the temperature remained cool. These conditions caused widespread crop failures. The straw and hay for the animals could not be cured and there was no fodder for the livestock. The price of food began to rise.”
Could southward shifts in the movement of the jet stream (similar to those in recent years) have contributed to this event, 700 years ago?
There has been no net warming for 16 years and the earth entered a cooling trend in about 2003 which will last for another 20 years and perhaps for hundreds of years beyond that.The current weather patterns in the UK and USA are typical of those developed by the more meridional path of the jet stream on a cooling earth. The Fagan book “The Little Ice Age ” is a useful guide from the past to the future. The frequency of these weather patterns, e.g. for the USA the PDO related drought in California and the Polar Vortex excursions to the South will increase as cooling continues
The views of the establishment scientists in the USA and the UK Met office’s publicity in this matter reveals their continued refusal to recognize and admit the total failure of the climate models in the face of the empirical data of the last 15 years. It is time for the climate community to move to another approach based on pattern recognition in the temperature and driver data and also on the recognition of the different frequencies of different regional weather patterns on a cooling ( more meridional jet stream ) and warming (more latitudinal jet stream ) world.
For forecasts of the coming cooling based on the 60 year (PDO) and the 1000 year quasi-periodicities seen in the temperature data and the neutron count as a proxy for solar activity in general see several posts at
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
For a review of a 3 year update of a 30 year forecast see
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2013/07/skillful-so-far-thirty-year-climate.html
For an estimate of future NH temperature trends see the latest post at
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
“It is time for the climate community to move to another approach based on pattern recognition ”
I think the folks in the trenches already do this, calling it the “constructed analogue” (CA) approach when applied systematically. Pattern recognition works as a name but having two names confuses things a bit.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html
#1 — a somewhat poorly written explanation;
See point #7 and click on (CA) for the glossary definition.
Next is a link where all this stuff has been applied:
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/enso/ensofaq.html#33
I few years ago I read a page where the years were listed for each of the patterns. I can’t find that tonight.
These groups are dealing with “seasonal” predictions and so might not qualify in the “climate community” you have in mind.
The examples you provided really relate to seasonal forecasts but they do show the value of this approach .I think “pattern recognition” is probably a more useful general term especially for public consumption. What I’m suggesting is that this approach is also the most useful one for decadal centennial and millennial time scales and should be adopted in place of the current GCM approach which inherently has no predictive value.
Reblogged this on CraigM350.