A Heatwave In Spain
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness
The latest garbage from the Guardian:
The record-shattering temperatures that hit the western Mediterranean last week would have been “almost impossible” without the climate crisis, according to scientists.
The heatwave across Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria was made at least 100 times more likely by global heating, the researchers calculated. Before the climate crisis, such an extreme event would have been expected only once in a least 40,000 years, making it statistically impossible on human timescales.
The scientists said such heat early in the year was especially harmful to people, who were less prepared than in summer. Farmers were already suffering under a prolonged drought and the heatwave struck at an important time in the crop-growing season, particularly for wheat…..
The researchers used peer-reviewed methods to assess the influence of global heating on the 26-28 April heatwave, and the results are the fastest yet for such a study, produced in just a week. The heatwave brought temperatures never previously recorded in the four countries at that time of the year, ranging from 36.9C to 41.0C.
The team used weather data and climate models to compare the likelihood of the high temperatures in today’s warmer world with their likelihood before the climate crisis. They found that global heating had made the heatwave at least 100 times more likely, with temperatures up to 3.5C hotter than they would have been without global heating.
Heatwaves tend to be the deadliest type of extreme weather, the scientists said. Mortality data from the April heatwave is not yet available, but heatwaves in 2022 led to nearly 4,000 deaths in Spain and more than 1,000 deaths in Portugal.
According to the Guardian’s own report at the time, the new record for April set this year in Spain was only 0.2C higher than the previous record. So hardly a one in 40,000 year event then!
But what about some of the other claims?
Heatwave deaths last year, for instance, which were claimed to be 4000. The claim comes from a report by the WHO, which also states that heatwaves killed 3200 here in the UK last summer. As we know, there was no evidence for such a claim at all; excess deaths were running at a similar level all through last year regardless of season.
And for some reason the Guardian forgot to mention the recent Lancet study which showed how many more people die from cold than heat in Spain:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62114-0/fulltext#seccestitle130
And what about those farmers, who are supposedly struggling because of climate change? We don’t have data for last year yet, but output of wheat hit a record high in 2021, and has been steadily increasing for decades:
https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare
Finally before the Guardian gets too apoplectic about a slightly warmer climate, they should remind their readers that Spain is only just recovering from the Little Ice Age, just as the rest of Europe is:
HH Lamb: Climate, History and the Modern World – pp235
Maybe the Guardian would like Spain to return to the climate which brought the devastating famines of 1904-06, as first floods and then record droughts nearly brought about revolution.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
FFS the Graun can’t even get the football tables right. According to them Sunderland finished 8th in the Championship https://www.theguardian.com/football/championship/table
Despite their own article showing the same Sunderland making the play offs in 6th.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/may/08/championship-roundup-sunderland-preston-burnley-cardiff
The Graun is a joke on all counts.
I’m not a great follower of football on TV, just check StJohnstone’s scores and performances* which have gone from one extreme to the other in the last three years, but was at my son’s yesterday watching Millwall-Blackburn then Brighton-Everton. Have to say a highly entertaining afternoon for the neutral.
Well done Sunderland if they are your team
PS they’ve corrected the table now.
*BBC Alba sometimes shows recorded highlights
Another 7 goals in the Forest – Saints match that came next. Or should I used that annoying term ‘clash’ to describe a game of football that the legacy media always use?
We’ve been in The Algarve for the past two + months. Yes, it’s been warm but also windy. There are concerns about water levels but it certainly does not feel like a once in 40.000 year event…..in fact such a claim is just laughable. 👍
The next story building is Canada.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65515446
But no matter the weather, how do you get 100+ fires? It’s not a climate change problem, it’s an arson problem.
https://globalnews.ca/news/9673400/arson-alberta-wildfires-intentionally-set-church/
Both Australian & Californian data show 80-90% of wildfires are caused by accident, negligence or arson.
The detailed work on wildfires in Wales showed it was around 90%. The timing and locations are entirely consistent with human causes.
The climate is a ‘crisis’ only because of climate models “according to scientists” predict dire futures unless we lower CO2 emissions to zero. NOAA reported that as of 2021 the total amount of global warming above the long term average was still less than one degree C. at plus o.84°C. And that was lower than it was in 2016. Extreme weather has been taking place for eons. Humans are not going to change that by some journalists continuing their misleading journalism.
Makes a welcome change from being cold since the end of last summer. Somewhere between 25 and 30 degrees Celsius is good.
>>heatwave
Why does the “climate crisis” scam keep continuing? Are there no politicians with the courage to fight the eco-terrorists?
Any politician presuming to take on the might of the Govt , BBC , powerful civil servants and the money of Gates et al in order to try to counter the nonsense of Net Zero and question the relevance of the slight global warming from inreased CCO2 has only to look at the fate of the one MP who wanted to raise the question of Covid vaccine safety . That same consortium conspired to have him hounded from Westminster , falsely branded an anti- semite to blacken his name for all eternity and have all media outlets blocked.
Thats why no one puts their hand up – and who can blame them. Evil always wins in the present world , maybe always has.
In late July 2022, Rockefeller Foundation (RF) president, Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, released a public letter detailing the organization’s plan to increase their resources and attention to addressing climate change. Shah noted that the RF had a hand in shaping “the American and global responses to the pandemic’s crises“ as they funded projects like the CommonPass, helping promote the concept of vaccine passports.
Established in 1913, the foundation used the Rockefeller family wealth to ostensibly promote “public health” by funding mass vaccination campaigns and the founding of public health authorities around the world. To continue their mission today, Shah says the RF must “directly confront climate change“.
“Rockefeller Foundation’s New Focus on Climate Change Signals the Next Phase of the Great Reset” https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/rockefeller-foundation-climate-change/
According to the office for national statistics there were 14024 deaths in the week ending 21/4/23 that is 22.1 % above the 5 year average. That is 2540 excess deaths in 1 week, not reported on any MSM. There appears to be only 1 MP who is concerned about the excess deaths.
No doubt you’ve all seen that the greens did pretty well in the recent council elections – except where people are already sick of them!
In Brighton and Hove they went from 19 to 7.
I spent the last 10 days in Cyprus. Rain, squalls, wind, thunderstorms and then warmth that was pleasant for me but cool for the locals. Weather. The result of weather systems. That’s all.
‘The record-shattering temperatures that hit the western Mediterranean last week would have been “almost impossible” without the climate crisis, according to scientists.’
Christ on a bike. Where is the CAUSATION in this sentence?
It appears ‘scientists’ aren’t very smart.
Here are is a scarcely recognized record summer temperature in Spain not surpassed this century : 127 degrees 22 June Zaragoza Spain , 1935 https://realclimatescience.com/2019/06/
But that was those unreliable mercury thermometers read and recorded by unreliable people twice a day, not modern instantly responsive electronic probes collecting data every 10 seconds. It doesn’t count.
/humour/irony
It is every second that they record. Even my £30 dataloggers can be set to that but does eat up the memory.
Heatwaves “tend” to be the deadliest type of extreme weather say scientists. “Tend”? Really?
11 times as many people die of cold than heat, in the UK.
Call me when it’s even.
Exactly
The Grauniad doesn’t care to tell you who these “scientists”are, but it seems from https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/about/ that the aim is propaganda and they are a bunch of “scientists” from Imperial College London, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.
“The World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative, a collaboration between climate scientists at Imperial College London in the UK, KNMI in the Netherlands, IPSL/LSCE in France, Princeton University and NCAR in the US, ETH Zurich in Switzerland, IIT Delhi in India and climate impact specialists at the Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC) around the world, has been founded to change this, and provide robust assessments on the role of climate change in the aftermath of the event. The initiative is led by Drs Friederike Otto at Imperial College, and Sjoukje Philip and Sarah Kew at KNMI.”
“Almost” impossible. Sorry, it either is or it isn’t, just as unique either is or isn’t.
Damian Carrington should have paid more attention in English as well as science lessons.
Just like this statement is wrong: “Before the climate crisis, such an extreme event would have been expected only once in a least 40,000 years, making it statistically impossible on human timescales.” It is statistically possible for a 1 in a 40,000 year event to happen this year and again next year. The Grauniad does come out with garbage, but its regular readers are too thick to realise it is garbage.
I would like to see their temperature records that go back 40,000 years.
The Guardians “broiling ” oceans florid language is ridiculous . Roman Optimum sea surface temperatures were significantly warmer than the modern era.
The World Weather Attribution Project and their ilk are the weather ‘SWAT teams’ manifest that were proposed in the Obama era leaked Lehane(Tom Steyer)/Podesta emails where they discussed exploiting weather events by flooding the media with climate attribution stories to emphasise their historic/ unprecedented nature. It is pure propaganda, nothing to do with honest science.
MrGrimNasty I agree 100%, that is why the Grauniad prints this garbage propaganda.
It is the Grantham Institute at Imperial college that is pushing all the attribution theories. I get a weekly newsletter from them on all their research, it is very professional looking, but a load of crap. Bob Ward is the official spokesperson, he makes Phoebe Plummer (Sunflowers soup) look normal!
I think they are just preparing the next in the long line of failed scary scenarios…. global cooling to global warming to climate change to extreme weather. Now they can blame hot, cold, wind, flood, drought on CO2!
Geoff B: Yes, the Grantham Institute has brought Imperial College a bad name for its crap “research”. There are dozens of no-doubt well-paid climate “scientists” churning out the propaganda for Bob (“fast fingers”) Ward to feed to a gullible media, such as the Grauniad and the BBC.
Comparing reality with an untestable model. Using Bayesian guesses. And even then, it’s all still “possible” so just meaningless science but excellent propaganda.
Not just propaganda, Phoenix. I think WWA et al figured out a way to monetize climate junk science. BBC, Guardian, etc pay well for WWA’s declarations of climate causation.
And when you are paid to declare things are caused by climate change, EVERYTHING is caused by climate change.
“researchers used peer-reviewed methods to assess the influence of global heating”
These researchers are not very clever, as they don’t appreciate how the statistical distribution of the real atmosphere is not necessarily the same as the statistical distribution of their models. This is the key assumption underpinning their conclusions. I would call it their biggest mistake.
Their peer reviewed method is to run models many times to build a statistical distribution. The models are coded to produce a sensitivity between CO2 and surface temperature (a causal relationship not been supported by real data) a difference between the model distribution and the real world is a racing certainty.
Their conclusion can therefore be reversed: the results confirm the models are hopelessly in error. They fail to replicate a single real world event and are incorrect to a 1-in-40,000 level of certainty.
They are producing distributions of their dice throws without knowing if their dice are loaded or not. Yet the “too hot problem” and generally poor skill of the models suggests very strongly the dice are loaded and thus the distributions fallacious.
Paul,
Did you notice that the new record high temperature in Spain was set at an airport?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65403381
“Spain recorded its hottest ever temperature for April on Thursday, hitting 38.8C according to the country’s meteorological service.
The record figure was reached in Cordoba airport in southern Spain just after 15:00 local time (14:00 BST).”
Guardian climate stories are 100 times more likely to be overblown propaganda than the actual truth.
Has the BBC or the Grauniad reported this yet?
My two favourite sources for the truth are SouthPark and
…..(drumroll) The Guardian👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
It’s interesting that “Moderate Cold” kills more than the other three combined in all countries. Do humans not take precautions in moderately cold conditions, live in areas that are not warm enough or what?
Fatal hypothermia can occur at relatively high temperatures . . . temperatures which people don’t even think of being cold.
“Almost impossible” isn’t impossible.
And thos attribution nonsense is backwards – show us how climate change caused it.
Indeed. Climate change is a RESULT, not a CAUSE.
A very interesting video on YouTube here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1mjG_F8ppw
It pretty much invalidates every climate change going, especially in respect to temperatures.
Based upon yet another unscientific attribution study from World Weather Attribution – this time a “super rapid analysis”. Here’s my ‘super rapid debunking’ of that study.
https://jaimejessop.substack.com/p/super-rapid-debunking-of-super-rapid
I’m sat here in Aragon, 18 degrees, raining, forecast 8 degrees tomorrow morning, wednesday.