UK Summers Getting Cooler
By Paul Homewood
We are all familiar with predictions that the UK will soon be having Mediterranean summers every year.
According to the Met Office’s Climate: Observations, Projections and Impacts, issued in 2011, we are already seeing the effect of climate change on our summers:
And there are plenty of studies coming out which tell us our summers are going to get much hotter and much drier.
There is no arguing that there was a shift change to warmer summers in the 1990’s.
But what have been the trends since then?
It is clear that summers have actually been getting cooler since 2006. Indeed, the 5-year average is back down to what it was in 1992.
The warmest summer since 2006 was in 2013, but this was not as hot as 1983, never mind others in between.
Five years is, of course, far too short a period to draw meaningful conclusions from; but the same can be said of the brief interlude of hot summers from 1995 to 2006.
Nevertheless, there is no evidence at the moment to support the projections of increasingly hot summers.
As for the Met Office statement that there has been a general increase in summer temperatures averaged over the country as a result of human influence on climate, how do they explain the opposite?
And what about the prediction of drier summers?
Again we find that the opposite has occurred. The driest summers occurred in the 1970’s to 90’s, since when most summers have returned to the sort of weather common prior to 1960.