Poorly Sited Stations Undermine Met Office’s UK Temperature Claims
By Paul Homewood
Whenever the Met Office publish their UK temperature charts, they never show any margins of error.
This in itself is poor statistical practice.
And as we now know, most of the Met Office’s temperature recording network has very high levels of uncertainty because of poor siting.
Class 3 measurements are only accurate to within a degree, according to the WMO. Class 4 and 5s, which account for 77.9% of weather stations, have uncertainty up to 2C and 5C respectively.
If we average this together, it means that poor siting could be artificially overstating the Met Office’s UK temperature averages by 2.5C.
Usually in other fields, negative and positive errors would tend to cancel out, due to their random nature.
With temperature recording, however, poor siting nearly always adds to underlying temperatures. If the Met Office had actually published these error margins, their annual temperatures would have looked like this:
I am not saying that the error margin is necessarily as big as 2.5C, only that in theory it might be. But with the predominance of poorly sited stations, it is abundantly clear that the Met Office cannot scientifically claim to know the current average temperature of the UK to a hundredth of a degree.
For the sake of this exercise, I have only shown the error margins for the years since 2010, as we can reasonably assume the existing mix of stations applies throughout that period.
Going back in time, of course, we have no idea of the mix of stations or how badly sited they were. Nor, more importantly, do the Met Office.
That of course means that they have no means of knowing whether they are comparing like with like, when they publish temperature trends going back to 1884.
And they therefore cannot say with any degree of scientific certainty that the last two years were the warmest on record, nor quantify how much, if any, the climate has warmed since 1884.
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The Met Office is just another organisation that is not-fit-for-purpose (shades of Post Office and NHS scandals). It should be put under proper scrutiny and the current management should be sacked.
Don’t forget water companies who are probably doing more environmental damage than almost any other organisation in the country.
Damn right! The small stream/medium river/raging flood torrrnt at the bottom of my garden is now a dead, polluted, muddy waterway when once, over the last 40 years, it was a nature paradise full of fish (pike, trench, bream etc), supportive of swans, ducks, geese, otters and (sadly) mink. Now, I haven’t seen a fish for years and all other wildlife is gone. Now, it just floods my garden on a regular basis leaving nothing but smelly, slimy rubbish behind for me to clear up. Something has to happen….
We had a nature paradise along the Thames river full of fish (pike, trench, bream etc), supportive of swans, ducks, geese. Then they introduced Otters. Now, I haven’t seen a fish for years and all other wildlife is gone. There used to be fishing contests along the river here 20yrs ago. Now no-one bothers to try to fish. the Otters have eaten everything. Stupid greens killing nature.
Please don’t fall for the absurd, lying propoganda from the Left about water companies.
@Phoenix
Assuming that’s a serious comment.
Then the following are for your consideration
Over a decade, the nine large English water companies have paid out as much in dividends as they have made in profits. There were 3.6 million hours of sewage discharge in 2023 in England. Severn Trent paid £3.5 million in bonuses to two executives last year. The last major reservoir opened in the UK was Carsington Water in 1989. Investment remained constant for most of the 21st century until recent “Left propaganda ” prompted action. Ofwat at times reduces proposed Investment.
If I may slightly correct Paul on this point, my research has actually indicated that the Met Office knows EXACTLY (within a couple of metres) where nearly all their former sites were located. From this website you can see where all of them are recorded even giving modern GPS coordinates.
https://archive.ceda.ac.uk/tools/midas_stations
To use an example go to stations list and insert “Bingley”, copy and paste the “WGS84” co-ordinates shown for Bingley NO 2 into Google maps and aerial view will show the site by the red kite.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/53%C2%B048'40.4%22N+1%C2%B052'00.3%22W/@53.8113146,-1.8668002,80m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d53.81122!4d-1.86676?entry=ttu
This was relocated there in 1972 so as to best record the waste heat emanating from one of the National Grid’s largest electricity sub-stations -Bradford West. Why not, after all they do not seem to give a fig about accuracy!
However, the CEDA archive also gives co-ordinates for the prior Bingley No 1 site from 1934 to 1961 and this is what it now looks like.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/53%C2%B050'49.3%22N+1%C2%B051'33.5%22W/@53.8470278,-1.8593056,321m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d53.8470278!4d-1.8593056?entry=ttu
So for whatever reason, they moved from a very good site (providing the trees were cut back) to a ridiculously poor site. Note that the new site they class as CIMO 4 when it is blatantly obviously Class 5.
The above example of Bingley is by a long way NOT the worst I have found! There are some official Met Office sites that no rational person would ever consider but the Met Office have actually tried to claim National Records for them! If anything Paul is underestimating the severity of the problem.
Ray, great work! Did the MO give any reasons for the need to re-site Bingley?
Hi Harry and thanks for the kind words. No, I cannot ascertain the reason for the relocation but as it was the early days of automation of sites, I would suspect the availability of comms and power at the new site (and absence of them at the old site) would be the most likely cause.
What astonishes me though is surely any self respecting meteorologist would look at the site, even feel the warm air coming off the transformers and think “No not here”? Seemingly the site is regularly inspected, do the inspectors not give a toss? Who knows.
Do you have the data from that site and can we compare it with the nearest decent site?
You can download it from the CEDA site I linked to above or alternatively for more recent data find it on.
https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/
You will find it quite an ordeal getting Met Office data, I am on my third FOI request so far! Most people are astonished to find how hard it is to get basic data from this section of government. The keepers of the faith do not give up their religious artefacts easily.
Sligo & Betts slimy fingerprints all over this. And, no doubt, many others in “the team”.
Who has forgotten the three-ring circus of the Coningsby RAF’s 60 second “Hottest Evvvah Record™”? And that was just one sample from a catalogue of barefaced lies, allegedly necessary to “Save the Planet”.
And don’t forget that they have been enthusiastically trashing the data all this Century, cooling the past and boosting the present.
I think it’s safe to say that the margin for error will decrease the further back you go. I would expect most stations to have been sited in fairly good situations originally. This would deteriorate over time as urbanisation etc increased
It is actually much worse than you may think David. I put in a lengthy post about this yesterday that you can view on this thread.
The Met Office starting around the seventies have closed most rural sites for various reasons hence ongoing “averages” are being predominantly based on poor quality and/or urbanised sites. The degree of this change was very rapid up until the start of the 21C then slowed a little hence the “pause” that they are now desperately trying to “massage” away.
If that is true then they are just copying their mates across the pond where many rural…. potentially perfect sites have been taken offline and replaced by gridding out from urban sites. However the most concerning thing of all is they still report measurements for those “ghost” rural sites! When challenged about turning off rural sites the sheisters claim their fudge factor adjusts for the urban site influence yet guess what, in every case I have seen mentioned this caused the rural temperature to increase. No one seriously planning an “honest” science project would do this. However someone with a premeditated intention to deceive will do exactly what has been implemented.
The Met Office should be rights be apolitical but, along with other public funded bodies, gave that up to follow overtly neo-socialist politics.
On a tangent a segment of last night’s Countryfile was refreshingly ironic. The owner of the Camel Valley Vineyard in Cornwall admitted recent warming made it possible to drow a particular type of grape. Of course it wouldn’t do to extol the virtues of a warmer climate would it.
GROW and BY rights!!!
Devoncamel. We are being told that now is warmer than it has been evah and certainly warmer than any time during the last 10000 years according to self awarded Nobel Prize winners like Mann!
Small problem with that claim with respect to England at least. Firstly Figs were grown openly around Colchester during Roman times, discovered by archaeology. Secondly, grapes were grown openly in Yorkshire during Medieval times at monasteries. Neither of those are possible today, yet the weasels tell us to believe it has nevah evah been warmah than it is today.
Interesting what people will say and do for money, as if that was not known previously.
Per theWiki,
“Ryedale Vineyard is the UK’s most northerly commercial vineyard, hidden away in an idyllic spot at the foot of the Yorkshire Wolds.”
It’s NE of York, south of Malton, about 54 North.
Auto
Ryedale founded in 2006.
I stand corrected. I bow to your superior knowledge about all things Yorkshire! I will certainly investigate the siting to see if there is anything special about the location. From my understanding at least all of the large monasteries and priories had a vineyard which suggests they would be located on different soil types as well.
The Met Orifice is part of a government department – DSIT.
The objective of the Met Office is to direct strategic change*. Whatever numbers it takes are fine. They are not a weather service; they are agents of change.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/governance/the-executive-team
Indeed they have long since been nothing other than a “Climate” data manipulation machine for government ends. I often fell we have time warped back 100 years – Eugenics is becoming the order of the day again together with mass exterminations.
However, I do not feel it is futile (yet) to push back against their machinations. In private research of their data manipulation I have come across the strongest opponent group to the UK Met Office – Meteorologists!
I have been very surprised to discover willing advice and assistance from owners of private weather stations many of whom are openly critical of the Met Office and even post youtube clips criticising them. It was not that long ago (2003) when the UK’s Royal Meteorological Society actually investigated the Met Office’s inaccuracies and heavily criticised their unscientific willingness to accept dodgy records. Although less openly critical now there are movements to correct phoney science using political/legal grounds.
Who knows – times may change. I live in hope and am trying to do something rather than just moan.
Having repeatedly doctored their own data over the years the Met Office climate records aren’t fit for purpose anyway, regardless of the sites used.
What is most shocking of all is they did it not once but twice as been so far ascetained….to the same data!
Oh to have been a fly on the wall when they stood in front of their political masters feeling all smug to be told they need to go back and do it again.
Think about it. They altered historical data. THEN they went and altered the same data AGAIN! Which has to say that their first fiddling was done either incompetently or as I suggest above, was not enough for their political masters.
Readers might like my recent preprint on mean UK summer temperatures:
10.21203/rs.3.rs-3999999/v1
Hi Keith, my view (for what its worth as I am not a meteorologist) is that the fundamental original data being used is basically flawed and progressively over time skewing to fewer and fewer less representative sites. You can crunch numbers till the cows come home but if the original data is not accurate, no amount of analysis or “adjustment” can ever change that nor produce a meaningful result. Any inferences from flawed data by definition must be flawed.
To give you one example look at this Met Office “analysis”
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2022/2022_03_july_heatwave_v1.pdf
Note the line above the tabulated site data
“The table below lists the highest temperatures recorded at selected individual stations on 19 July.”
How scientific is the term “selected” – is it like some form of restaurant wine list “Especially selected for the discerning palate”? It carefully omits those CIMO Class 1 sites within the “record breaking” area (notably Rothamsted of the CET) and is cluttered with junk Class 5 sites like St James’s Park Central London. What reputable meteorologist would consider this an acceptable site for recording UK climate data?
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5048904,-0.1310811,3a,75y,77.31h,74.72t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1soh4DT8vQBMsXSRwHAcqEIQ!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3Doh4DT8vQBMsXSRwHAcqEIQ%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D120.249374%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656?coh=205409&entry=ttu
Hi Ray,
Couldn’t agree more. As Paul Homewood points out the MET never publish error bars, which means they do not analyse the data correctly. If they had done, the distortions you have noticed in the record would be immediately obvious. I think this is the tenet of Paul’s posting.
In my paper, I sought to show that in the time record data, deviations from the mean were all within 2SDs and hence the trend in the data was not statistically significant. However, if the MET office claimed it was, then they faced the problem of why it correlated with the increase in offshore wind power. Of course, cherry-picking bad data, as you suggest, might give rise to a similar effect.
What intrigues me at the moment is that the shape of the ten year rolling average in all these plots are almost identical. It seems no matter what data they plug into their package, the same plot comes out. V fishy.
In some capital works projects I’ve previously been involved with, the data previously issued by the Met Office would now be quarantined in light of these inaccuracies becoming apparent. Additionally, there would always be an alternative source for the data from a different contractor, creating the possibility of sacking the Met Office from the contract.
Sorry to be a bit (but not a lot) off topic but I had to laugh at this BBC article.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c877lz733l0o
Talk about jumping onto a band wagon/catching a ride on the gravy train! Now we have “Art Curators” lecturing us on “Climate Change”
https://britishartnetwork.org.uk/membership/members/thomas-ardill/
Forget science….who needs rubbish like that! Our current go-to expert is an effing moron of an Art curator talking complete BS. Seriously I feel like I have time warped back to the rise of the Third Reich.
I have spent my entire working career in engineering trying to prove issues in exacting details and real world situations. Why did I bother…..just be totally incompetent, make shit up and everything will be well …just fine?
I don’t trust these multiple source averages whether world wide or UK only. As Paul points out they appear to use unreliable sources and to me “global averages” mean absolutely nothing. Out of interest what is the comparable temperature from the CET?
The CET is now in the clutches of the Met Office. One of the three sites they now use is Pershore College which is a crap site. For reasons beyond normal people they seemed unable to find a decent site….or did they deliberately chose a crap one? It’s a Class 4 site even by their own admission here
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/52%C2%B006'00.0%22N+2%C2%B003'35.9%22W/@52.1002118,-2.059506,167m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d52.10001!4d-2.05997?entry=ttu
Perhaps, but the satellite temperatures do show a similar increase to the MO data.
“Fools seldom differ”
Has no-one looked at the vast amount of data from the Met Office’s Weather Observation Website (WOW) to which a myriad of amateur Private Weather Stations, most professional grade and with many sited in Class 1 and 2 rural location, report at up to 15 minute intervals, many less so. That data is available by looking at each individual station. Many PWS also report to other weather websites such as the US Wunderground, seen vividly on Wundermap. Many owners would be happy to up load bulk data to other known weather experts.
The issue Sapper, is that it is the UK Met Office that “decides” what data is “permitted” to be used and holds control over that data. I can view a top quality private rural weather station from my bedroom window as per this site which shows literally thousands UK wide.
https://www.weatherlink.com/map/de5ffecc-aba6-4bde-bdf4-d6ac972b6c71
A business associate of mine runs 5 separate weather stations across Kent all of which are very good. The problem is that the Met Office only allows its own or its own “approved” data (i.e. certain stations on WOW) to be used and rejects all others no matter how good or better than theirs. The government then follows their sole guidance.
We know April was cold. Many commented on this. May too has been poor apart from brief warmer days.
Whatever the conspiratorial BBC or Met Office say about a “warm May”, I can confirm that when I returned from music night last night it was 4 degrees here and the weekend generally was cool and showery here in the English Lake District.