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UK Summer Temperature Not Becoming More Extreme

December 20, 2014
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By Paul Homewood  

 

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http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/12/17/has-there-been-a-recent-increase-in-uk-weather-records/

 

The Met Office report on a fairly meaningless study, which tells us that since 2000 there have been more hot records set than cool ones in the UK. They say:

 

Temperature records:

  • Since 2000, there have been 10 times as many hot records as cold records.
  • Taking into account the weighting, the period since 2000 accounts for two-thirds of all hot records in a national series from 1910, but only 3% of cold-records.
  • The longer Central England Temperature (CET) series, which dates back to 1659, reveals a similar trend – with seven out of a possible 17 records set since 2000 but no record cold periods.
  • The increase in hot records and decrease in cold records seen in recent decades is consistent with the long-term climate change signal. Seven of the warmest years in the UK series from 1910 have occurred since 2000.

 

It is hardly surprising that, since we have warmed up since the 19thC, and particularly in the last 20 years or so, we see more hot records set than cold. This does not mean that we are still getting warmer, simply that we have plateaued.

What is much more relevant is whether summers are becoming more extreme, whether hot or cold, compared to the “norm”. After all, are London summers more extreme than Sheffield’s, simply because London lies further south and is a bit warmer as a result?

Put another way, are summer temperatures more variable these days?

The Met study looks at annual, seasonal and monthly records, so let’s test out variability in summer months, which is logically the only season we should be worried about hot records.

 

I have taken the CET summer mean temperatures, starting in 1659, and plotted anomalies against the climatological norm of the previous 30 years, For instance, the summer of 2014, which was 15.9C, is compared against the 1983-2014 baseline of 15.8C, giving an anomaly of 0.1C.

The results in Figure 1 don’t tell us an awful amount, but it is worth noting some of the extremes:

1) The two “hottest” extremes were 1826 and 1976, both recording 2.4C.

2) These are followed by 1933, with 2.0C, and 1911, 1995 and 1846, all with anomalies of 1.9C.

3) The most recent year with a hot anomaly of more than 1.0C was 2006.

4) 1726 had the coldest anomaly, with 2.1C, followed by 1816 and 1695.

5) The anomaly of 1.1C in 2011 was the coldest in recent years.

 

Remember that all these years are compared against the climatological norms of their times.

 

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Figure 1

 

However, it gets more interesting when we combine negative and positive anomalies together. In other words, all anomalies, whether positive or negative, are plotted as positive, as in Figure 2.

 

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Figure 2

 

1826 and 1976 still appear as the standout peaks, but visibly the anomalies in recent years are not unusual, as the 30-year running average shows.It appears that the most volatile period was in the early 19thC, which followed a very stable period in the mid 18thC.

Since 1900, there has been little change in the trend, which has started to drop in the last decade. 

 

Unless Central England temperatures drop back to earlier levels, we will no doubt continue to see more hot records set than cold. Indeed, it is ludicrous to expect cold records to keep up, when we are comparing against the much lower temperatures of the Little Ice Age.

The real issue is whether our summers are becoming more extreme, and the answer is clearly that they are not.

 

I will take a similar look at winter temperatures tomorrow, and also rainfall records which the study also addresses.

Nasa observatory reveals high CO2 concentrations in southern hemisphere

December 20, 2014
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By Paul Homewood

 

 

h/t Paul2

 

 

We all know that it is us wicked developed countries that are destroying the world with our CO2. This doubtlessly explains why CO2 concentrations are so much higher across a wide band of the southern hemisphere.

 

 

nasa-oco2

Global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from October 1 through November 11, as recorded by Nasa’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2. Carbon dioxide concentrations are highest above northern Australia, southern Africa and eastern Brazil. Preliminary analysis of the African data shows the high levels there are largely driven by the burning of savannas and forests. Elevated carbon dioxide can also be seen above industrialised Northern Hemisphere regions in China, Europe and North America.NASA/JPL-Caltech

 

 

 

The International Business Times reports:

 

Read more…

It’s Nuts!

December 19, 2014

By Paul Homewood 

 

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http://www.breitbart.com/london/2014/12/19/claim-squirrels-cause-climate-change/

 

 

 

Now I’ve heard it all!!

 

According to researchers working on the Polaris Project in the Arctic, which aims to study climate change at the poles, arctic ground squirrels and beavers both contribute to carbon emissions by burrowing into the frozen soil to make their homes, churning up the soil. Faeces and urine from the rodents fertilises the soil, encouraging decomposition of biological material that had been locked in suspended animation by the frost, releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Nigel Golden, an ecologist at the University of Wisconsin who took part in the project told the BBC that the ground temperature around the rodents’ burrows was higher than in the surrounding area. “’They are soil engineers,” he said. “They break down the soil when they are digging their burrows, they mix the top layer with the bottom layer, they are bringing oxygen to the soil and they are fertilizing the soil with their urine and their faeces.

“We saw an increase in soil temperature in the soils where the arctic ground squirrels were occupying. This is a major component. As that permafrost begins to warm, now microbes can have access to these previously frozen carbons that were in the soil. And because they mix the soil layers, they are being exposed to warmer temperatures.”

The arctic permafrost is estimated to hold twice as much carbon as is currently present in the Earth’s atmosphere. Climate scientists are therefore concerned that, if the frost melts, the carbon could be released, contributing to climate change. However, they concede that the squirrels are not able to melt the permafrost on their own. There is still a role for man in this climate catastrophe story.

“This is a larger story about wildlife impacts on carbon cycling, and how this may change as the climate warms,” said Dr Sue Natali, who led the Polaris Project.

 

 

I wonder how much grant funding they have received for this nonsense?

Nissan Leaf Fails The Test

December 19, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

Nissan Leaf

 

 

 

With oil prices falling through the floor, and confirmation of just how much electricity prices are going to rise in the next few years, it is time to look again at the comparative costs of electric and conventional cars.

The Nissan Leaf seems to be the most popular electric car in the UK, and is comparable, from a specification point of view, to the Ford Focus. The Leaf Acenta is the mid range version, and can be compared with the Focus Zetec, which I have shown for both the 1.6 TDCi diesel and Eco 1.0 petrol options.

So first, some basic costs and specifications.

 

Read more…

Sheffield City Council’s Priorities

December 19, 2014
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By Paul Homewood  

 

Scan

 

 

From the local rag:

 

Scan

 

Could this be the same Sheffield City Council, who last year admitted that they were employing ten Climate Change Officers at a cost of over £500,000 pa?

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/01/22/sheffield-waste-500k-on-climate-change-officers/

Govt Awards Capacity Market Contracts

December 19, 2014

By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/11303088/Households-to-pay-new-11-energy-bill-levy-to-keep-the-lights-on.html

 

The Telegraph have joined the “let’s show backlit water vapour and pretend it’s black smoke” campaign.

They report:

 

Consumers will pay an £11.40 annual energy bill levy to help keep the lights on from 2018, ministers have announced, amid fears the policy could inadvertently increase the risk of blackouts before then.

The Department of Energy and Climate Change said on Friday that it had provisionally agreed to pay £990m in subsidies to power plants to guarantee they could provide enough electricity to meet demand from 2018.

The sum is less than had been feared, but experts warned that the controversial scheme could backfire. Some of the power plants that were deemed surplus to requirements for 2018 may actually be needed to keep the lights on in the intervening years – and could now be at risk of closure after failing to win the subsidies.

Phil Grant of Baringa Partners said the economics could be “very challenging” for these plants and unless market conditions improved “some plant may opt for mothballing”. If this were to happen, National Grid would have to intervene with emergency measures “to ensure the lights remain on as capacity margins would then become very tight indeed”, he said.

The new subsidy scheme, called the capacity market, offers retainer-style payments to energy companies to ensure their power plants are available – even if they don’t actually end up generating.

Read more…

Too Many Twits At DECC

December 19, 2014

By Paul Homewood  

 

h/t Joe Public

 

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https://twitter.com/DECCgovuk/status/545569375173242880

 

 

DECC can evidently afford to waste time and taxpayers’ money running a twitter account, now they have 35% extra staff!

 

I wonder why they did not brag about how wind only contributed 3.8% to electricity generation in September though? Or the fact that good old fossil fuels generated 62.7%?

 

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 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-section-5-energy-trends

 

 

 

Only asking!! 

BBC Bang The Drum For DECC & The EU

December 18, 2014

By Paul Homewood 

 

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30518649

 

Let’s leave aside the fact that the BBC say the economy is now growing (they usually try to deny it)! It can be no coincidence that the BBC have chosen to make a splash of this story, just days after DECC were forced to reveal how electricity prices would be 40% higher because of climate policies.

 

According to their story, we are now using less electricity, because of EU regulations making sure products are more energy efficient.

 

_79790356_electricity_consumption_464gr

 

According to their figures, average electricity consumption has fallen by 9.5% since 2008. DECC figures show a slightly lower drop for domestic users of 5.3%, although this does not take allow for increasing population. There are many things I could say, such as:

 

1) Last winter was mild.

2) Many of the energy efficiencies would have been delivered by a free market, without any govt intervention, just as they always have in the past. People expect to benefit from things like this as technological advances occur.

3) To put savings into perspective, you need to take account of the price of goods. It is no use saving a few pence of electricity for a twisty light bulb, if the darned thing costs a tenner in the first place.

4) A large part of energy savings is simply because people cannot afford to use as much, as prices soar.

5) Many elderly people will see no benefit at all from all these appliances, as they either have no need of them, or cannot afford them.

 

Nevertheless, let us take these figures at face value.

 

Read more…

DECC Increase Staffing By 35%

December 18, 2014
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By Paul Homewood 

 

5_spaghetti

http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/9026/numbers-game-the-latest-civil-service-staff-numbers/

 

At a time of austerity, I am sure we will all be pleased to see that DECC have managed to increase their staffing levels by 35% since 2010, according to the Institute for Government.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics confirm that numbers of staff have increased from 1120, in Q4 2010, to a current level of 1510. (See here and here).

 

The only other departments to have increased staffing during this time are the Department for International Development and the Cabinet Office.

 

Read more…

Global Sea Ice For Dec 14th Highest Since 1988

December 16, 2014
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By Paul Homewood   

 

Reposted from SunshineHours

 

 

Global sea ice extent is now at its highest level since 1988, and the fourth highest on the satellite record, for Day 348.

 

global-sea-ice-extent-for-day-348-from-1978-infilled

http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2014/12/15/sea-ice-extent-day-348-highest-global-sea-ice-since-1988/