Yet Another Met Office Fail
By Paul Homewood
We are all familiar with the frequent junk forecasts produced by the Met Office, from BBQ summers, mild winters and the latest disastrous failure to predict the cold, wet last couple of months in the UK. But they always maintain that this does not affect their models’ abilities to predict longer term climate.
In 2007 they produced their first decadal forecast through to 2014, which claimed that globally :-
- 2014 would be 0.3C warmer than 2004.
- Half of the years from 2009-2014 would be hotter than 1998.
So how well have their models done?
Using their own HADCRUT3 data, the last few years’ temperatures are :-
|Year||HADCRUT3 Temp Anomaly Centigrade|
|2012 (to April)||0.28|
Meanwhile their latest decadal forecast issued last year states
Global average temperature is expected to rise to between 0.32 °C and 0.71 °C (90% confidence range) above the long-term (1971–2000) average during the period 2011–2015, with values most likely to be about 0.51 °C higher than average .
From 2016 to 2020, global temperature is forecast to rise further to between 0.47 °C and 0.94 °C, with most likely values of about 0.71 °C above average. The warmest year in the 160-year Met Office Hadley Centre global temperature record is 1998, with a temperature of 0.40 °C above the long-term average. 2009 had a temperature of 0.32 °C above average. The forecast trend of further global warming is largely driven by increasing levels of greenhouse gases.
For how much longer must we fund this ideologically driven nonsense?