Skip to content

Yet Another Met Office Fail

June 13, 2012

By Paul Homewood


ScreenHunter_01 Jun. 12 12.24



We are all familiar with the frequent junk forecasts produced by the Met Office, from BBQ summers, mild winters and the latest disastrous failure to predict the cold, wet last couple of months in the UK. But they always maintain that this does not affect their models’ abilities to predict longer term climate.

In 2007 they produced their first decadal forecast through to 2014, which claimed that globally :-

  1. 2014 would be 0.3C warmer than 2004.
  2. Half of the years from 2009-2014 would be hotter than 1998.

So how well have their models done?

Using their own HADCRUT3 data, the last few years’ temperatures are :-


Year HADCRUT3 Temp Anomaly Centigrade
1998 0.52
2004 0.43
2009 0.44
2010 0.50
2011 0.35
2012 (to April) 0.28


Meanwhile their latest decadal forecast issued last year states

Global average temperature is expected to rise to between 0.32 °C and 0.71 °C (90% confidence range) above the long-term (1971–2000) average during the period 2011–2015, with values most likely to be about 0.51 °C higher than average .

From 2016 to 2020, global temperature is forecast to rise further to between 0.47 °C and 0.94 °C, with most likely values of about 0.71 °C above average. The warmest year in the 160-year Met Office Hadley Centre global temperature record is 1998, with a temperature of 0.40 °C above the long-term average. 2009 had a temperature of 0.32 °C above average. The forecast trend of further global warming is largely driven by increasing levels of greenhouse gases.

For how much longer must we fund this ideologically driven nonsense?

  1. June 13, 2012 1:00 pm


  2. June 13, 2012 5:53 pm

    In the UK, Bright Sunshine tracks summer Tmax very well.

    Does the Met EVER blame change in sunshine?

  3. June 16, 2012 5:31 pm

    What i don’t understand is that we know 1934 was the hottest year on record. But people keep saying that 1998 is. I saw the gif where it illustrated the discrepancy. Now in this post the Met is quoted as saying, ” The warmest year in the 160-year Met Office Hadley Centre global temperature record is 1998,” there was no refutation about the statement.

    Am I getting US temperatures mixed up with global? Was 1934 in the US the hottest for us but globally 1998 is?

    • June 23, 2012 5:38 pm

      Yes, the 1934 specifically referred to the US.

      Of course, it is no coincidence that the US happens to have one of the better quality temperatures records, while much of the “warming” is claimed to come in places where there a few, if any, reliable records, such as the Arctic and Africa.

  4. June 18, 2012 12:38 am

    “above the long-term (1971–2000) average during the period 2011–2015,”

    That ought to be 1981-2010.

    • June 23, 2012 5:43 pm

      According to the Met

      However, many WMO members, including the UK, update their averages at the completion of each decade. Thirty years was chosen as a period long enough to eliminate year-to-year variations.

      The latest set of 30-year averages on the website covers the period 1971-2000.

      I wonder why they have not realised the 2010 decade ended a year and a half ago?

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: