Catastrophising Summer Weather
By Paul Homewood
The Met Office was quick to call this even before the month had ended!
June 2023 is on track to be the hottest June on record in a series which goes back to 1884.
While the forecast for the next few days shows an unsettled picture with temperatures closer to average, this won’t be enough to prevent June 2023 being provisionally the UK’s hottest June on record, beating the previous record set in 1940, as well as June 1976 (part of the well-known summer of 1976), which is currently the second warmest June on record.
“Meteorologically, June started with high pressure over the UK bringing often settled and dry conditions with plenty of sunshine. Once that high pressure subsided, warm, humid air took charge over the UK, with 32.2C the highest temperature recorded so far this month and high temperatures for the vast majority of the UK.
Climate change increases the frequency of hotter, drier summer weather and the chances of record-breaking high temperatures for the UK.
Mike continued: “While the UK has always had periods of warm weather, what climate change does is increase the frequency and intensity of these warm weather events, increasing the likelihood of high temperature records being broken.
Why is the Met Office so obsessed with calendar months? They have no statistical significance as such, as weather does not neatly compartmentalise itself in this way. They have no more significance than any other 4-week period. A more telling statistic would be a rolling 4-week average. Calendar months make good news stories of course, but the Met Office is supposed to be a reputable scientific organisation, not a purveyor of propaganda.
The comparison with 1976 is also rather disingenuous. As the CET daily temperature record below shows, the heatwave in 1976 really only got going in the last week of the month, but then carried on till mid July. This year’s heatwave has already ended, and weather forecasts suggest near average temperatures for the next week or so.
Moreover the intensity of the heat in 1976 was much greater. The highest daily maximum last month was 28.6C, whereas in June 1976 the top temperature was 30.3C; there were also 6 days above 28.6C in June 1976 alone, not to mention eight further days in July.
Taking the 1976 heatwave as a whole, it was clearly much longer and intense than this year’s.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html
The claim that this is somehow linked to climate change is also dishonest. The cause of the warm weather last month was the amount of sunshine, with the month being the sunniest since 1957. As the Met Office themselves admit, the month started with high pressure, and even during the humid spell the weather remained sunny.
And while the UK was basking under high pressure, Greenland was stuck throughout the month with low pressure, which brought snow and lots of it. As a result, the melt season has still barely got going, and the ice cap has grown by 100 gigatonnes during the month when it should normally be losing ice.
Is that also due to global warming, Met Office?
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
The Met Office also state:
June 2023 is on track to be the hottest June on record in a series which goes back to 1884.
What they omitted to mention is that they also have records for Central England going back to 1659; and according to this June 2023 was a long way from being the hottest. It ranks only 5th, behind 1676, 1822, 1826 and 1846, which hardly supports their assertions about global warming.
It is frankly deceitful for them not to mention this.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt
The Met Office’s press release is all of course part of a very well organised conspiracy to catastrophise summer weather. The Met Office are at the forefront, with the media in full support. Think about all of the silly Heat Alerts we are given nowadays, and how weather maps that used to have sun symbols to denote hot weather are now painted in lurid reds.
Meanwhile the rest of us are happy to just bask in the sun!
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Why are the Met Office, the BBC and most newspapers so hell bent on castastrophising our weather on a daily basis- can someone examine their accounts to see if they are receiving large sums of money from those who stand to gain from the abandonment of a sensible energy policy and this country’s suicidal drive to net zero?
We are fast heading towards a police state where anyone who argues against the insanity of it all will be outlawed and the general public will be forced to replace reliable transport and heating fuelled by reliable fossil fuels in favour of unreliable electric energy driven by unreliable wind and solar power.
This catastrophising is now being promoted in schools, universities and even churches and even the new King, who has a bigger carbon footprint than any other resident in in Great Britain, can’t resist sticking his oar in at every opportunity.
It’s all very sad and the real catastrophe is that Great Britain is fast being relegated to a non competitive industrial has been!
MJJ Exeter
And…catastrophising on mundane TV progs like Countryfile and Escape to the Country!!
Add Farming Today, which almost daily mentions ‘the climate crisis’, always with definite article. Last week they wheeled out Lord Deben as their ‘expert’. Repeatedly I e-mail them about false claims of supposedly more extreme weather but am probably wasting my time.
“can someone examine their accounts to see if they are receiving large sums of money from those who stand to gain from the abandonment of a sensible energy policy and this country’s suicidal drive to net zero?”
Try this https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaaction/about/funding/
Yes the BBC really does get funding from people like BILL GATES, NORAD, USAID, NORWAY, SWEDEN and others.
£1,569,000 from Bill Gates ……I object to compulsorily paying for a TV license to watch any live TV, so what’s in it for someone who has no obligation to pay anything at all?
Yes, 1976 was both hotter and longer than this year. Also, the days were hotter earlier in the morning and later into the evening. There were more sunshine hours and I would bet, much less dew. Everything green shrivelled up and died. We all had brown dusty lawns – and hose pipes were banned. The nights were much hotter too, we slept on top of our beds and the sash windows were wide open. So were the outside doors, no one was going to come in and steal in our country area!
The government appointed a Minister for Drought. That immediately caused rain and everything cooled to huge amusement. All together 1976 was a much more serious affair not fully shown in just the daily peak temperatures.
Paul, you are right about months, the rolling four is a much sounder approach. But add to that the daily hourly averages, day and night.
We can’t compare the whole summer yet, obviously. However, as far as June and the CET go, the facts of 1976 v 2023 are these, like them or not.
The CET mean and average max for June 2023 beat 1976 by 0.1C in the latest version, would have been a dead heat in the legacy version. Average min was a dead heat in latest version, 1976 0.1C warmer in old.
June 2023 mean ranked 5th in ~360 year data.
June 2023 average max 1st in ~140 year data.
June 2023 average min joint 4th ~140 year data.
‘We are fast heading towards a police state where anyone who argues against the insanity of it all will be outlawed ‘
It’s already happening!! Like him or loath him, Nigel Farage has recently had his bank accounts closed because his views do not mesh with the bank’s. This is a clear case of discrimination but the MSM and our politicians are not calling it out for what it is!!
I do hope Paul has his bank accounts well secured. Wouldn’t want ‘them’ to do a Nigel on him.
It’s not just discriminatory, it’s dangerous. The UK rapidly tuning into a banana republic.
” . . . Nigel Farage has recently had his bank accounts closed because his views do not mesh with the bank’s“.
Banks do not have views. Someone — Who? — differs with Farage regarding what?
Net Zero? Brexit? Scottish independence? Overdrafts?
“Banks do not have views. ” John you are an idiot.
Well, okay. Banks have views from the deck on the top floor. 🙂
Yorkshire Building Society closed a customer’s account because he questioned the pride flags on display. They are claiming it wasn’t that but then hiding behind confidentiality in not providing a reason. They are not providing the customer an alternative reason either.
Well, I also used to think that banks and other service providers “didn’t have views”. But it appears that now they do. Yorkshire Bank closed a Vicar’s savings account because he objected to the bank supporting the Pride celebration month. When challenged about this they said they only closed accounts of people who were abusive, indulged in financial crimes or “who discriminated in any way”. That last reason is telling because it’s the bank who then decides whether any of their customers “discriminate” and that is a political decision. Monzo bank closed another customer’s account because his views “didn’t align with our corporate values”. That is a highly political statement
Is John Kettley on our side? In his Weather Watch in the Mail on Sunday he states: “It is also worth reflecting that the Central England Temperature, a dataset going back to 1659, still shows the four hottest Junes in the UK occurred before 1850.”
As “A tribe of toffs” sang in 1988, John Ketley IS a weatherman
Very good. They go on to sing ……. and so is Michael Fish. Well we know what happened there don’t we?
‘Climate change increases the frequency of hotter, drier summer weather and the chances of record-breaking high temperatures for the UK.’
[citation needed]
Begging the question fallacy. This tosh is not in evidence.
Met Office publishing it doesn’t make it reality.
My son-in-law came by today and asked me: all these reports that we’re going to have a raging hot Summer – are they true.
No, says I. It’s at least two things: 1. They’re trying to sell the idea of NZ. His blank look worried me as I realised he hadn’t a clue what I was talking about; 2. That temperature recordings were being corrupted.
Coningsby, he asked? What and where is that?
Arrrgggh!
97% 0f the public are unaware of NetZero and that it means the end of the UK as a civilised country. The 97% will own nothing and will be happy.
If they are still alive.
I beg to differ the grannies, the truckers are well informed, whereas the Guardian Supremacists are off in a dreamworld
And here in Valencia all the Brits are happily basking in 30 degrees plus.
Checking the HADCET daily max and min data for June 1976 I find that the maximums were downrated by 0.11C on average over the month for Version 2, while the minimums were downrated by marginally more: 0.11333C. It really helps to revise the past when you want to pretend the present is worse.
” It really helps to revise the past when you want to pretend the present is worse. ”
As someone else said: we live in the Adjustoscene period.
NH sea ice for June didn’t get the Met Office memo…
It seems a long time ago that the Met Office was a reliable scientific organisation. Just another in a long line of once-respected organisations no longer worthy of respect.
Having been out and about this weekend, I was grateful to have chosen a long sleeved shirt and a body warmer. Not a choice for the summer of ’76.
Lets see what they come up with for July, the next 10 days for N Wales are pretty chilly.
No doubt the met office will stay shtum.
In 1884 airports didn’t exist!
Neither did an explosion of humanity; QED?
A WORLD-WIDE, explosion of asphalt roads, motorways, central heating for home and work, for those of us in higher latitudes shopping centres, Cruises, flights!
Are we despoiling the planet? A population of 8 Billion Homo-Sapiens all of whom want to have children?
The question I understand?
The solution, is incomprehensible!
Always ask “Is it news .. or is it PR ?”
The PR narrative is a simplistic idea that CO2 is a simple thermostat that works at a local level
More CO2 means hotter temperatures locally
UK media often act as if CO2 from the UK makes local UK weather
Rubbish ! World CO2 may be a partial factor
but local weather is driven by LOCAL winds
Generally if the wind is from the South a days temperature will be warmer
and if it’s from the North it will be cooler
And there can be standing weather systems whereby the pattern stays the say for days and builds up hotter or colder
But as Paul points out when PR folk cherry pick one country that is misleading
cos when one place is getting unusual WARM winds, another place is getting unusual COLD winds.
I agree with these views. But the problem is that some members of the public really believe that if the UK alone achieves net zero by 2050 that that will “save us in the UK from climate collapse”. I’ve heard this claimed by people interviewed about their reactions to Just Stop Oil protests. With this level of ignorance – exploited by those with a stake in promoting “green technologies” – it’s difficult to see how we can draw back from our current ruinous climate policies
stewgreen – can you explain why you think world CO2 may be a partial factor to influencing weather?
Sure it’s down to the greenhouse effect demonstrated in the laboratory by Tyndall in around 1859/60
He showed that CO2 has an effect but the main greenhouse gas water has an effect 16,000 times stronger than normal air
Now laboratory is not real world so you can’t be sure of the real world saturation, and negative/positive feedbacks in the real world
theoretically more CO2 could sometimes make the Earth cooler
then you have albedoand smog effects etc too
Thank you.
Greenland had a bit of a melt yesterday, mainly in the north
The deaths are partly caused by less oxygen in the water as river levels decrease. Fish also die when dried-up pollutants from cars and lorries on roads wash into rivers during flash storms.
The deaths are partly caused by less oxygen in the water as river levels decrease. Fish also die when dried-up pollutants from cars and lorries on roads wash into rivers during flash storms.
The deaths are partly caused by less oxygen in the water as river levels decrease. Fish also die when dried-up pollutants from cars and lorries on roads wash into rivers during flash storms.
Sorry, this hasn’t worked, I cannot see what I am writing,as the box is too small
Only 32? How would the scaremongerers survive in 39 to 46 which is normal in many countries since time immemorial?
>>32.2C the highest temperature recorded so far this month