More Wet Dry Summers To Come For The UK!
By Paul Homewood
“Scientists” say that summers in the UK are getting wetter:
http://www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId=154448&CultureCode=en
Meanwhile other “scientists” say that climate change is leading to drier summers:
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2705.html
Meanwhile, back in the real world:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/download.html
The unusually dry period of 1960-90 stands out, but it is apparent that rainfall in the last decade has been pretty much par for the course, with little sign of any drastic changes up or down.
It is worth noting that the famous wet summer of 2012 was in fact only the fourth wettest on record, behind 1912, 1879 and 1829. Indeed 2012 was the only year to appear in the top 10 since 1912.
To be fair, the Tom Matthews paper does go on to state:
Cyclone frequency and storminess are characterized by pronounced interannual and multi-decadal variability which are strongly coupled to atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic region, but we detect no evidence of an increasing trend.
So my advice is to carry on packing the sun cream and umbrella!
Trackbacks
Comments are closed.
Your image #3 nails precisely why Matthews, T., Murphy, C., Wilby, R. L. and Harrigan, S. (2015), cherry-picked a 142-year period that was studied.
Well done Paul.
Note that at Bishop-Hill, using the title “Met Office still brazen”, the UKCP09 climate projections are mentioned and characterized as “demonstrably unreliable.” A link isn’t given.
Have you seen this
Via the Talkshop
Thanks Andrew.
Just left a lengthy reply!!
At 20:42 tonight, only 3x replies visible. Latest is “James Pickett 16:11:57”.
My reply is still showing as under moderation!
I’d better take a screenshot!