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More Wet Dry Summers To Come For The UK!

July 7, 2015

By Paul Homewood

  

forbes

 

 

“Scientists” say that summers in the UK are getting wetter:

 

image

http://www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId=154448&CultureCode=en

 

Meanwhile other “scientists” say that climate change is leading to drier summers:

 

image

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2705.html

 

 

Meanwhile, back in the real world:

 

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/download.html

 

The unusually dry period of 1960-90 stands out, but it is apparent that rainfall in the last decade has been pretty much par for the course, with little sign of any drastic changes up or down.

It is worth noting that the famous wet summer of 2012 was in fact only the fourth wettest on record, behind 1912, 1879 and 1829. Indeed 2012 was the only year to appear in the top 10 since 1912.

 

To be fair, the Tom Matthews paper does go on to state:

 

Cyclone frequency and storminess are characterized by pronounced interannual and multi-decadal variability which are strongly coupled to atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic region, but we detect no evidence of an increasing trend.

 

 

So my advice is to carry on packing the sun cream and umbrella!

7 Comments
  1. Joe Public permalink
    July 7, 2015 12:54 pm

    Your image #3 nails precisely why Matthews, T., Murphy, C., Wilby, R. L. and Harrigan, S. (2015), cherry-picked a 142-year period that was studied.

    Well done Paul.

  2. John F. Hultquist permalink
    July 7, 2015 2:11 pm

    Note that at Bishop-Hill, using the title “Met Office still brazen”, the UKCP09 climate projections are mentioned and characterized as “demonstrably unreliable.” A link isn’t given.

  3. July 7, 2015 2:16 pm

    Have you seen this
    http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/07/07/on-the-record-observing-a-heatwave/
    Via the Talkshop

    • July 7, 2015 6:27 pm

      Thanks Andrew.

      Just left a lengthy reply!!

      • Joe Public permalink
        July 7, 2015 7:42 pm

        At 20:42 tonight, only 3x replies visible. Latest is “James Pickett 16:11:57”.

      • July 7, 2015 9:20 pm

        My reply is still showing as under moderation!

        I’d better take a screenshot!

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