No Record Year According To Satellites
By Paul Homewood
With September numbers now out, satellite data shows that global temperatures this year are going to finish well below both 1998 and 2010, despite very strong El Nino conditions for most of this year.
Since April, according to NOAA’s MEI , this year’s El Nino has been much stronger than anything seen in 2010. Normally we can expect a lag of between 3 and 6 months for changes in the MEI to be reflected in atmospheric temperatures, so it is probable that the latter will continue to increase through the NH winter.
It would be remarkable then if temperatures did not at least match those of 2010, but currently that is just what we are looking at.
For this year to finish above 2010, temperatures for the last three months would have to go off the page.
Of course, calendar years mean little on their own. What is more telling is the 12-month running average.
On UAH, for instance, the 12-month average peaked at 0.36C, whereas currently it is 0.23C, and September came out at 0.25C. It is still highly likely that temperature anomalies will eventually go as high as 0.36C, but whether they stay at that level for 12 months is another matter.
As always, bear in mind that UAH and RSS work their anomalies out using different baselines, 1981-2010 and 1979-98 respectively. Hence UAH anomalies are lower, because they are including the warmer years after 1998.