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No Record Year According To Satellites

October 11, 2015

By Paul Homewood 

 

image

http://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

 

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http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta3.txt

 

With September numbers now out, satellite data shows that global temperatures this year are going to finish well below both 1998 and 2010, despite very strong El Nino conditions for most of this year.

 

ts.gif

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

Since April, according to NOAA’s MEI , this year’s El Nino has been much stronger than anything seen in 2010. Normally we can expect a lag of between 3 and 6 months for changes in the MEI to be reflected in atmospheric temperatures, so it is probable that the latter will continue to increase through the NH winter.

It would be remarkable then if temperatures did not at least match those of 2010, but currently that is just what we are looking at.

 

image

image

 

For this year to finish above 2010, temperatures for the last three months would have to go off the page.

Of course, calendar years mean little on their own. What is more telling is the 12-month running average.

On UAH, for instance, the 12-month average peaked at 0.36C, whereas currently it is 0.23C, and September came out at 0.25C. It is still highly likely that temperature anomalies will eventually go as high as 0.36C, but whether they stay at that level for 12 months is another matter.

 

 

 

REMINDER

As always, bear in mind that UAH and RSS work their anomalies out using different baselines, 1981-2010 and 1979-98 respectively. Hence UAH anomalies are lower, because they are including the warmer years after 1998.

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10 Comments
  1. A C Osborn permalink
    October 11, 2015 4:05 pm

    I think that the Warmists may be fooling themselves with the curent Enso/El Nino values.
    The last 2 we had coincided with and boosted by warm Southern Oceans and a warm North Atlantic, this time around it is being cancelled out by cooler Southern Oceans and a cold North Atlantic.

  2. October 11, 2015 4:11 pm

    Reblogged this on Roald j. Larsen.

  3. October 12, 2015 2:34 am

    The cynic in me says that by fixing an El Nino Year not so high, they miss out on the “warmest year ever” propaganda meme, but are then are able by cherrypicking start dates like 2010..to say the “earth continues to warm”

    Never lose site of the goal : that the only thing that matters is whether we go into some unrecoverable feedback catastrophe.

    #1 Global temp is just supposed to be a proxy for the amount of energy in the climate system..and I am not convinced it actually is a good measure,

    #2 It maybe not be a problem if energy in the climate system rose and increased temperature cos humans and nature may well continue to cope fine.

    There plenty of ISIS, or disease net bodies …but no “climate dead bodies” yet.

  4. October 12, 2015 1:15 pm

    By viewing a graph of temperature anomalies (vice actual temperatures), a flat trend indicates an underlying increase, while a downward trend would indicate temperatures returning to normal averages. I see a flat trend, or a modest warming over the past decade.

    • October 12, 2015 3:21 pm

      I presume you mean temperatures in the last decade are higher than they were from 1979-98?

      If so, that is correct.

      But what is a “normal average?”

  5. October 21, 2015 3:23 am

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  6. I Know You're Lying permalink
    October 22, 2015 6:48 am

    Hey, Paul
    Where did the surface temperature graphs go?
    You used to post them but seem to have stopped.

    • October 22, 2015 10:35 am

      I don’t publish fake data

      BTW If you comment using a fake email address again, it will go straight in the trash bin.

  7. October 22, 2015 11:33 pm

    Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
    TLT Satellite data was all the rage in the 90’s, when it was warming, now it’s scoffed at (by AGW alarmists).

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