2015 Only 3rd Warmest Year According To Satellites
By Paul Homewood
Satellite temperature data is now in for December, and confirms, as expected, that 2015 was not the warmest on record, but only third warmest since 1979, well below both 1998 and 2010.
Indeed, despite the strongest El Nino conditions last year since 1998, temperatures have barely exceeded 2005.
The temperature standstill since 1998 is still evident from the purple trend lines on the monthly anomaly graphs below.
There is always a lag before higher SST’s affect the atmosphere, usually between three and six months, but as strong El Nino conditions have existed since last April, it is unlikely monthly temperatures will go much higher in coming months. This assumes, of course, that El Nino does not re-strengthen.
I’m sticking my neck out now, but given the current consensus on El Nino, I would expect 2016 to finish slightly higher than last year, at around 0.40C for RSS, and 0.30C for UAH. This would still leave both well below 1998 and 2010.
If I am right, this would be quite remarkable, given that the current El Nino is so much stronger than in 2009/10.