Arctic Ice Extent May Have Already Hit Minimum
By Paul Homewood
While Joe Romm spreads his lies, the real news is that Arctic sea ice extent appears to have reached minimum remarkably early this year, and looks to be quickly regrowing, as NSIDC figures below show:
According to DMI, extent this year finished only slightly down on last year:
This is despite not one but two very strong cyclones in August, as NSIDC report:
Two very strong cyclones entered the central Arctic Ocean in August from along the Siberian coast, bringing strong winds. On August 16, the central pressure of the first cyclone dropped to 968 hPa, nearly rivaling the storm in early August 2012 that attained a minimum central pressure of 966 hPa. On 22 August, the second storm started moving to the central Arctic Ocean along a similar track, and on August 23, attained a central pressure of 970 hPa.
Past studies have shown that stormy summers tend to end up with more sea ice at the end of the melt season than summers with high pressure over the central Arctic Ocean, primarily because stormy summers are both fairly cool and the wind pattern tends to spread the ice out. However, the impact of strong individual storms may be different—the 2012 event appears to have temporarily boosted ice loss by breaking up the ice cover, with the wave action tending to mix warmer waters from below to hasten melt. It may also be that, as the ice cover thins, its response to storms is changing.
It indeed appears that the August 2016 storms helped to break up the ice and spread it out, contributing to the development of several large embayments and polynyas. Some of this ice divergence likely led to fragmented ice being transported into warmer ocean waters, hastening melt. Whether warmer waters from below were mixed upwards to hasten melt remains to be determined, but as discussed below, these storms were associated with very high wave heights.
And they estimate that September’s average will be above 2007. What is clear from this graph is that extent has stabilised since 2007.
As for Romm’s ludicrous assertion of death spirals and ice disintegration, DMI show what conditions are really like:
PIOMAS also show ice thickness well above 2010 to 2013 levels, although less than last year.
As WUWT reveals, Romm is paid to write this nonsense, so he should know that icebreakers have been sailing to the North Pole for decades.