Coal Plants Under Construction In China & India Rising At Alarming Levels
By Paul Homewood
So much for Paris!
The above analysis is from Energy Transition Advisors, a green propaganda group, who are, somewhat naively, alarmed about what is going on in China and India.
According to their Global Coal Plant Tracker, this is the coal fired capacity in the pipeline:
GW New Pipeline Coal Plant Capacity
To put the numbers into perspective, according to the China Statistical Yearbook, thermal generating capacity was 923 GW in 2014. (No split is given between coal, oil and gas). Capacity utilisation was 55%.
Not all of the pipeline will end up getting built, but even just based on the Permitted and Under Construction plants, an extra 221 GW would increase current capacity by 24%.
Some of this will inevitably replace old, polluting power stations, which are causing so much air pollution. New plant will be much cleaner, and also sited well away from urban areas. Nevertheless, 594 GW of thermal capacity is less than 10 years old, so it is hard to see any of this being shut prematurely.
Much has been made of China’s commitment to increase wind/solar capacity to 300 GW by 2030, but these already stood at 121 GW in 2014. In other words, they only plan to build an extra 179 GW. Given likely capacity utilisation of well below 20%, this extra capacity will probably add less than 5% to current electricity generation in China, and will certainly be dwarfed by the new coal capacity being built.
As for India, according to the EIA, coal fired capacity is currently 186 GW, and supplies 62% of the country’s electricity. New capacity in the pipeline will soon double this figure.
Wind and solar, in contrast, contribute only 3.6% of total generation. There are plans to increase capacity by 132 GW, but again, with capacity utilisation of around 15%, the actual contribution to total generation will be minimal compared to the planned increase in coal power.
There looks to be little chance of carbon storage coming to the greenies’ rescue either, as ETA report:
This study finds painfully slow progress towards deployment of CCS. In China, four large scale CCS projects are awaiting final investment decisions. If these went ahead they would capture 6 million tonnes CO2 annually, compared with IEA assumptions for 240MT CO2 in China and India by 2030.
The ETA report whittles on about carbon prices, caps on coal consumption, stranded assets, and how China and India would be so much better off just relying on renewables.
But it never ceases to amaze me how none of these self appointed experts have got around to working out that renewable energy simply does not work on any scale as to be useful.
Fortunately for the Chinese and Indians, their governments are not so naive.