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Hottest Day? At Heathrow, Maybe–But Not In The Rest Of The Country

June 22, 2017

By Paul Homewood

image

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40353118

 

It has certainly been uncommonly hot these past few days. Many outlets have talked about a “record breaking” heatwave, such as this report in the Telegraph. This is a grossly misleading claim, because it relates to a record temperature for a single day, in this case June 21st.

There are, of course, thirty days in June, and in a record going back 100 years you would on average see a “record daily temperature” about every three years.

I also noticed last night that the BBC TV weatherman actually put a large newsflash on screen which claimed a temperature of 35C at Heathrow, when the actual temperature was 34.5C. A typically dishonest stunt from the BBC!

But how hot has it really been, in comparison to previous Junes?

 

Eagle eyed readers will already have spotted that the highest temperature was set beside the runway at Heathrow. Coincidence? I think not, as Heathrow was also the scene of the highest temperature on Tuesday as well.

 

ScreenHunter_883 Jun. 21 22.40

 

Even with the help of the tarmac, the Heathrow temperature fell well short of the highest June temperature of 35.6C, which was set in 1957, and equalled in that record breaking summer of 1976:

 

image

 

But to get a better perspective, we need to look at the more representative Central England Temperature series, which provides daily temperatures averaged over a wide area, rather than a collection of individual sites which cannot be compared with each other, and are often biased by artificial local factors.

So far this month (including yesterday), the top three temperatures on CET were 28.2, 28.9 and 29.1C. An analysis of days in June of 28C and over shows that there is nothing at all exceptional about this month’s weather.

 

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

 

Many days in the series have been much hotter. Obviously 1976 stands out as the exceptional year, but there other really hot June days prior to then, in years such as 1878, 1941, 1947 and 1950.

Since 1976, there have been no days approaching those sort of temperatures.

This all puts a rather different complexion on claims of “hottest day” and “record breaking” that the BBC and others have been propagating.

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19 Comments
  1. June 22, 2017 3:23 pm

    Except that AGW is warming the nights not the days. I have two links to share. Here is the first one.
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2968352

    • dennisambler permalink
      June 22, 2017 4:21 pm

      Professor Munchi is discounting AGW……….

      “The TMAX data show a combination of warming trends, cooling trends, and no trends with significant differences among stations and among the calendar months so that no coherent conclusion can be drawn with respect to the long term trend in TMAX.

      Temperature trends in a moving 30-year window indicate that long term linear OLS trends in temperature are the residual product of violent multi-decadal cycles of warming and cooling at rates that are an order of magnitude greater.

      Detrended correlation analysis failed to establish a relationship between emissions and warming. The strong evidence of warming found in the TMIN data is confounded by its absence in TMAX as no theoretical basis exists for fossil fuel emissions to cause warming in TMIN and not in TMAX.”

  2. June 22, 2017 3:25 pm

    AGW is warming the nights not the days
    Second link
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2974794

    • dennisambler permalink
      June 22, 2017 4:18 pm

      Professor Munchi is not a believer……

      “These results are inconsistent with the usual assumption that warming trends in the USHCN instrumental record are driven by anthropogenic global warming”

  3. Jack Broughton permalink
    June 22, 2017 3:40 pm

    It is interesting to note Chaamjamal’s comments on nights warming. I have questioned him previously as to whether the rise is actually AGW, as his detailed statistical analysis does not cover the causes of the trends, or just the natural warming since the LIA.

    The present graph is a bit surprising in that it show no discernible warming trend as the earth recovers from the LIA: very much in line with Chaamjamal’s comment that warming shows up more in nocturnal temperatures.

    I no longer watch the BBC news, (wife wants the TV to last a bit longer).

    • NeilC permalink
      June 22, 2017 4:04 pm

      Do you think that nocturnal temperature warming could be down to UHI?

      • Jack Broughton permalink
        June 22, 2017 7:46 pm

        Fair question, don’t know but it would seem to be a good possibility.
        if so the mechanism of radiative forcing becomes even more of a fiction!

      • Ben Vorlich permalink
        June 22, 2017 9:52 pm

        I think a lot of it will be down to UHI. I do a bit of cycling for leisure/fitness about 100-120km per week. I live in a rural area with a number of small villages with narrow streets. When the weather is warm like it is currently I go out early and there is a noticable increase in ambient temperature when entering these narrow streets, even in places with a population of a few hundred have a noticeable UHI in the early morning.

    • dearieme permalink
      June 23, 2017 9:15 am

      The early global warming papers forecast that warming would be largely confined to nights, in winter, at high latitudes. The trouble with that, I suppose, is that it wouldn’t promote enough fear to lead to more research grants for climate researchers.

    • June 23, 2017 11:06 am

      Four years ago, I made my TV last forever (wherever it is) by discontinuing service. I do not miss it and read more.

      Also I find wonderful things to watch on my laptop. I just watched President Trump’s whole speech at his rally in Cedar Rapids, Iowa this week. My policy during the campaign was to watch his whole speech at rallies and his policy speeches. Just watched his meeting with the technology CEO’s at the White House this week.

      Amazing how many of them are singing his praises after meeting him, hearing him and having him listen to them. He wants their input into streamlining and improving government–a bureaucrat’s worst nightmare. I have listened to Rush Limbaugh since June 1992. I can watch to parts of Sean Hannity’s show on FoxNews and Tucker Carlson as he skewers the left with logic.

      On the lighter side, I have watched your “Escape to the Country”–good for geography and “Time Team”–I’ve always like archaeology.

  4. Bloke down the pub permalink
    June 22, 2017 6:14 pm

    Paul, I read your comment at Tallbloke’s and a question came to mind. How quickly does a min-max thermometer react compared to a modern sensor? If modern sensors can capture a rise lasting less than a minute, say for example when an A380 taxies past, would that have registered on old style equipment?

    • NeilC permalink
      June 23, 2017 6:55 am

      More than that, there was a southerly wind at the time. With the recording equipment on the north side of the airport, temperatures were recording the heat from the whole airport infrastructure, including runway 09L.

  5. June 22, 2017 9:35 pm

    Transient air temperatures belong to pop-culture if anything.
    Ocean temps are the name of the game in the long run.

    Re 1976 – Heathrow again…
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_United_Kingdom_heat_wave#Heatwave_and_drought_effects

  6. dennisambler permalink
    June 22, 2017 10:15 pm

    “If only Yes Minister had done the global warming thing (oh look…!)”

    http://joannenova.com.au/2017/06/if-only-yes-prime-minister-re-elected-had-done-the-global-warming/

    Brilliant, a must watch!

  7. Athelstan permalink
    June 23, 2017 12:13 am

    So far this month (including yesterday), the top three temperatures on CET were 28.2, 28.9 and 29.1C. An analysis of days in June of 28C and over shows that there is nothing at all exceptional about this month’s weather.

    Cheers Paul, its about what I thought, yes compared to what went before [earlier in the month]…………. it was warm [even in Yorkshire!] but “record breaking!” – no, it’s just another al beeb/wetoffice fiction. Indeed, I don’t count readings from the ‘kitchen’ up at Heathrow and neither do I set much credibility in T readings from Gravesend – another wet office favourite spot.

  8. CheshireRed permalink
    June 23, 2017 9:54 am

    Crikey, even the tag line on that photo is biased! The BBC really can’t help themselves can they.

  9. June 23, 2017 4:06 pm

    Been much colder this week than 200 miles south in TV/radio land.
    we’re sick of them banging on about heat.
    Sun + Mon was boiling
    – Tues : cloudy , bur rain blew over a few drops at 5pm and then 8pm ..a bit in the night,
    – Wed – After leaving house had to stop and put on sweatshirt
    – Thu : cloudy then rained heavy at 1:30-2pm ..cleared up by 5pm
    – Fri : Grey cloudy, long trousers

  10. June 23, 2017 4:08 pm

    Exceptions like Heathrow should not make the rule
    They should be considering a region as a whole over time.

  11. Tom O permalink
    June 23, 2017 6:39 pm

    So, this was the hottest day in 41 years. So much for global warming, if 42 years ago the day was hotter.

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