UK’s Hot Summer Linked To Cold Atlantic
By Paul Homewood
I reported last week that many experts believe this summers persistently anti cyclonic, and therefore hot, weather in the UK is inextricably tied in with a large pool of abnormally cood water in the mid Atlantic.
Step forward Joe Bastardi to show how it all knits together:
From Patriot Post:
I sit in stunned amazement over the complete lack of intellectual curiosity to look at other ideas. And for those who do, I’m stunned that they don’t bring up the obvious counterarguments. We all know and understand CO2 feedback ideas as to why the planet is warming. I have stated countless times that I see the argument, but the very nature of the entire system overwhelms it. At least I go look.
The Europe heat wave attribution to man-made climate change is the same kind of nonsense we saw with the hot dry summers of 2010-12 (and it’s showing up again where and when it gets hot everywhere around the planet). Still, on the bright side, it gives me a chance to show what we know and how we use it in our job!
Let me propose something for our Euro friends here.
Atlantic sea surface temperatures have undergone two major transitions. The first is the huge drop in the northwest Atlantic from 2012.
Read the rest of Joe’s post here:
https://patriotpost.us/opinion/57393-europe-heat-wave-questioning-mans-attribution
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
I think we are giving C02 too much importance. For instance, the Ordovician ice age had levels fourteen times higher than today’s so it has no warming effect.
More recently, from the late 1930’s to the 1970’s global temperatures fell whilst CO2 levels rose due to second world war manufacturing then rebuilding afterwards.
I don’t think there is any correlation between temperatures and CO2 levels. Why give the warmers any ammunition?
Attribution generally boils down to assertion which is not scientific, or barely scientific if poor-performing climate models are invoked.
There’s an increase in the number of volcanoes. All the planets congregated onto the same side of the Sun as ourselves since late June. The poles have had some melting. These factors combined have slightly changed the Jet Stream, so that Europe and the Middle East, also parts of Russia, Japan and US, in fact all Tropic of Cancer areas have had flooding from thunderstorms. Siberia has had a big anti cyclone sitting over it.
We live in a dynamic solar system and relatively speaking, have been here for a very short time. There is no such thing as “normal”. Everything is cyclic, but we don’t really understand the cycles. The weather hasn’t done anything that we could attribute to ourselves. There were recent auroras on the planets, Mars and Uranus for instance where we didn’t know there could be.
Overall we are getting symptoms of climate change, yes but if so it is going to get cooler not warmer and global warming is a money making myth. The Northern hemisphere is where temperatures usually drop. There will be some shortages of basic crops this winter.
Chopping down vast areas of forest is a terrible idea and spraying chemicals above cloud levels is a new factor where we don’t know the long term effects. The symptoms that the media say are causing warming are in fact the precursers to Ice Ages of the past.
I wait to read about this on the BBC. If the BBC don’t report it, then I know it will be true.
On the BBC we had climate change reducing puffin numbers, yet we had weather causing increasing hen harrier numbers. Today we have climate change causing a drought in Australia. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-45043299
Yet again the BBC blames climate change for bad events and the BBC blames weather for good events. No wonder everybody knows that you can’t trust the BBC.
Back in the day (the 1950s) the man (no dolly birds, thank you) on the BBC TV was always talking about where ‘the Azores High’ was. That was the answer to everything back then. It would seem it is still relevant.
It is reasonably clear, in this chart, that the purple bit will melt in the last month of summer, and the green bit will not. And then it the sea-ice will start on its inevitable winter increase. In other words “service as normal.”
Out of curiosity, I notice that a lot of the records for continuous hot days, temperature, low rainfall and so on date back 40-45 years. UK summer 1976, France same year, Athens 1977 and I think but can’t verify that a lot of records in the 2000s broke records set in the 1970s. SO my question is what was the situation in the North Atlantic in the 1970s?
“…situation in the North Atlantic in the 1970s?”
The mid-70s were cold:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-010-0791-5
The AMO was also low in the 1920s.
The following is from Don Haworth’s ‘Figures in a Bygone Landscape’ describing his childhood in Burnley.
“The summer of 1930 was hot. Tar and creosote bubbled on the shacks and fences of the hen pens. The pools in the cinder street dried up and baked, frogs came into the coal place, old men sat all day packed on park benches like racks of biscuits in an oven…Fly papers hung everywhere black with insects…”
They had proper hot weather then!
The attribution seems to be more along the climate change made it twice as likely line than directly saying it is caused by climate change. I don’t understand that claim either though. The heatwave is not a random event, but purely deterministic. If CO2 affects climate in any meaningful way, then CO2 was a significant cause of the heatwave. Without the CO2 effect, either we wouldn’t have had the heatwave or it would have been more/less hot.
Making it more “likely” is nonsense. Either we know what caused it and so can say whether CO2 played a role or not, or we don’t know what caused it.
In the UK for the last 20 years, while CO2 has risen by 12.7% temperatures had remained in stasis. We have been told CO2 is a well mixed gas in the atmosphere. So the claim that CO2 increases temperatures, in the real world, is nonsense.
One CAN entertain a joint hypothesis that:
(1) ‘heat waves’ manifest as a ‘Poisson Process” with a ‘constant’ rate;
and,
(2) the rate changes, i.e. the constant is really a ‘parameter.’
and,
(3) the rate changes are determined by a particular condition (CO2 concentration, solar cycle changes, ocean currents, ozone concentration, space weather, volcanoes,………………).
BUT
The numerical tests that might be used to sort out these possibilities, can only have what statisticians call a ‘low power.’
It is intrinsically implausible that ‘global (sic) warming’ is suddenly causing ‘heat waves’ in middle latitudes, if only because the annual, normal changes in temperatures in these regions (say 30 C) are a hundred times larger than the purported secular change of the last twenty years (say 0.3 C.)
The Earth has been, almost covered in thick ice. The Earth has been ice free. This is natural variation. As we have about 24m Km^2 of ice (both polar regions), I’d say we are in a rather cool cycle.
So what’s all the fuss about warming, I’d be rather more worried about cooling.
And maybe people have noticed that the Russians (who tend to understand cold) have built nuclear-powered icebreakers, and are building more. Could this be some sort of a hint?
Yesterday the Beeb carried a curiously reactionary article entitled ‘Heatwave: Why is Heathrow so hot?’
“Planes make a negligible difference,” says Professor Williams.
Clearly the Blob’s getting a bit rattled now that siting issues etc. are becoming increasingly wider known.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44980493
‘”Planes make a negligible difference,” says [tongue in cheek] Professor Williams.’
Maybe, but the tarmac they sit on, and the hangars they occupy, and the millions of square meters of infrastructure for all the people, do make a difference.
“…rattled…”
The Blob’s foot-soldiers are finished. They just do not know it yet.
Do the square miles of tarmac, concrete and buildings dwarf the effect of planes landing and taking off every minute or so? A good chance to experiment arises next year if there is a ‘no deal’ Brexit as Heathrow will be closed for a few months – BAA have set up borrowing for a 2 month closure which might be optimistic. Even when the licence issue is resolved there may be no UK aircraft operating for a while longer as airworthiness, pilot licences, cabin crew licences etc are resolved.
I have seen a reference somewhere to Joe saying that he has seen cycle similarity to the winter of 62-63.
Meanwhile as the jetstream comes up from the south past us nice and warm, it has to come back down somewhere bringing cold. And that is in Russia where new low temp records are being set.
“…Joe…”
The only recent opinion piece I am aware of is:
https://patriotpost.us/opinion/56761-sudden-crash-of-atlantic-ocean-temps-and-possible-implications
He does not seem to be saying much about the coming winter in Europe.
For what it is worth, the present English summer is not like that of 1962; then, June was nice, but July and August were rather miserable. Actually, I was in Hamburg, and it was hot! It shows that it matters exactly where one is in the World. I do remember clearly the weather in October – because I remember the Cuban Missile Crisis – it was lovely. Early November was stormy. The snow came in December. Do such historical details mean anything? Who knows.
With no brexit deal the millenium bug will activate, pestilence will spread across the land and the empty skies will fill with broomstick flying hags and witches reinforcements for the remainer trolls and succubi that roam the land.
Only Mrs. May can save us with help from the Canadian Governor turning sterling into eurodross.
Or not.
A certain friend of mine loved ‘the millennium bug.’ He was a retired expert in COBOL. For a year or so, he was paid big money, by the ignorant CEO’s of FTSE 100 companies, to come out of retirement, and ‘fix’ their computers. Then came total disaster, in the form of January 1, 2000. His extra income stopped.
He turned up drunk at my house, crying “I told them this would happen! I told them!”
Then he gave a sloppy grin, and went on, “I told them nothing would happen!”
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.
In the linked article, what is “MJO”?
Madden Julian Oscillation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation
Also of note is that in year 1666 there was a months heatwave/drought that affected most of Europe.
At that time, in England, London had lain under an exceptional drought since November 1665, and the wooden buildings were tinder-dry after the long hot spring and summer of 1666. Temperatures in the summer of 1666 rose l.5°C above normal, and a precipitation shortfall of 6 inches turned London’s mostly wooden dwellings into a citywide tinderbox. The same conditions prevailed in much of northwestern Europe, giving rise to fires in a score of German cities. The spectacular destruction, and the fame of the diarists of the time, ensured so much of London’s Great Fire was not overshadowed the frequency of urban fires elsewhere in 1666.
However London was not the only capital city where unusual drought in the mid seventeenth century produced a ‘Great Fire’ —
In Moscow in 1648, after several months without rain, ‘within a few hours more than half the city inside the White Wall, and about half the city outside the wall, went up in flames’.
A large part of the new Mughal capital Shahjahanabad, now Delhi, burnt down in 1662.
Istanbul suffered more (and more devastating fires) in the seventeenth century than in any other period of its history: one in 1660, once again after a prolonged drought, burned down 280,000 houses and several public buildings15 (Fig. 7).
Major blazes also regularly devastated Edo, the largest city in Japan, notably the Meireki fire of 1657 – which, like those in Moscow in 1648, Istanbul in 1660 and London in 1666, broke out after an abnormal drought
[Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Fire_of_London
and Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century. Geoffrey Parker.]
All this happened during the LIA.
And yes by December 1666 there was thick ice over much of the Thames, and Europe suffered a cold to very cold winter.
Thanks for the link explaining “MJO”. I had never seen that acronym before so the author lost me when he started to use it without explanation.
One other thing puzzled me. he talks about the “500mb ridge” but the accompanying diagram’s title refers to 600mb. Is that just a typo or is it another snippet of insider knowledge which needs explanation?
“…Is it…or is it…?”
No idea, but I do not suppose it matters. After all the idea is just to give some three-dimensional picture like this:
I am never quite sure with meteorology whether or not all this jargon is just concealing a fundamental vagueness as to the physical mechanism!