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Next Year To Be “One Of The Hottest Years Of All Time”–Claims Pathetic Daily Mail

December 20, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

The sad decline of the Mail continues apace, with this latest juvenile story:

 

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Forecasters warn 2019 is expected to be one of the hottest years of all time.

The Met Office estimates average global temperatures for 2019 will be 1.10C above pre-industrial levels, putting it among the five hottest years ever.

It is close to the record-breaking 2016, when temperatures were 1.15C above the 1850-1900 period.

The Met Office said the highs are the result of climate change caused by greenhouse gases.

This summer was the joint hottest on record for the UK, with the year’s average temperatures around 0.96C above pre-industrial levels.

Following last year's summer heatwave - which saw thousands of people take to the beach in Brighton in July (pictured) next summer is due to be a scorcher, too

Following last year’s summer heatwave – which saw thousands of people take to the beach in Brighton in July (pictured) next summer is due to be a scorcher, too

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6514341/Met-Office-forecasts-hottest-year-2019-climate-change-causing-increase.html

 

One of the hottest years of all time? Among the five hottest years ever?

Does whoever wrote this drivel not know that the Met Office’s measurements of  global temperatures only started in 1850? Apparently that was when the world began.

Do they not know that 1850 was at the end of the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures plummeted?

Then, to make matters worse,  the Mail conflates last summer’s heatwave ( a weather event far from unprecedented) with global climate.

And finally, they manage to illogically predict that next summer will also be a scorcher, even though the UK has gone through a decade of disappointing summers.

And as the Met Office figures themselves show, global temperatures have been rising steadily since around 1910, long before AGW had any effect, with a mid century temperature drop coinciding with the cold phases of the AMO and PDO.

 

Global time series

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/diagnostics.html

 

As for the Met Office’s forecast itself, they predict a temperature anomaly next year of anything between 0.98C and 1.22C above “pre-industrial” levels. But what they fail to point out is that temperatures are still artificially high because of the lingering effects of the record El Nino of 2015/16, as there has been no major La Nina activity since to offset it.

Such a wide margin of error makes the whole thing pretty much useless anyway. But I would suggest that there would be much greater concern around the world if the Met Office was forecasting temperatures were going to return to the “normals” of pre-industrial times!

23 Comments
  1. Ian Magness permalink
    December 20, 2018 2:42 pm

    I think the Met Office has been reading that another El Niño is brewing so they (and apparently the all-new green Daily Mail) is hoping for another scorching year (like 2018 wasn’t overall), so they can come up with yet more hysterical headlines.
    Let’s all make a note of this and review in a year’s time. Given the state of various oceanic cycles (of which ENSO is but one) I wouldn’t bet on this prediction coming true.

  2. John Palmer permalink
    December 20, 2018 4:08 pm

    We’ll probably end up with a ‘barbecue summer’ again!

  3. Malcolm Bell permalink
    December 20, 2018 5:05 pm

    The Met Office seems unable to forecast the next week reliably so I
    suspect their stab at next year will be any better than the BoE forecast of financial meltdown if we voted “out”.

    I think I will look for a new summer coat
    and gloves in the sales – more likely to be a chilly windy summer if this is what the MO forsee.

  4. December 20, 2018 6:11 pm

    Chasing cheap headlines to make money like the rest of the ‘popular’ press.

    • Mack permalink
      December 20, 2018 10:19 pm

      The Daily Mail needs all the shekels they can get having lost an avalanche of readers under the new faux Brexit, pro May, green blobby, woolly, whiney editorship of Gorgeous Geordie, in complete opposition to the views of the majority of the paper’s traditional readership. Arguably, even more readers have deserted them in just a few months than the Met Office have screwed up their ouijacasts over the years. And that’s really saying something.

  5. Bloke down the pub permalink
    December 20, 2018 6:16 pm

    I’m sure Paul will be archiving this so that the Mail can be reminded of their predictions in due course.

  6. December 20, 2018 8:30 pm

    The Met Office may be right as far as the UK is concerned, if the current wet and warmish winter continues, followed by a typical summer, the annual mean may indeed be one of the warmest in recent times, in the same way that all points near the top of a hill are close to the local maximum.

    But, this will all be recently typical weather, nothing to write home about, but the BBC has now completely lost the plot about the weather, anything a bit non-average is now attributed to Climate Change, I’ve not heard a single doubting voice since “that memo”.

  7. Graeme No.3 permalink
    December 20, 2018 9:49 pm

    I wouldn’t bet against the Met Office as they are the ones supplying the temperatures. And with the added advantage that if they are wrong (perish the thought) they can switch to Climate Change as an excuse.

    In racing terms the Bookmakers decide the race result before the race, and if the ‘winner’ pulls up lame they can call the race off.

    A Merry Christmas to all readers and their loved ones.

  8. Ben Vorlich permalink
    December 20, 2018 10:54 pm

    I can’t understand why being warmer than the LIA is such a problem. Currently some European countries have had earlier and heavier than normal snow events, Greece and Romania for example.

  9. December 20, 2018 11:50 pm

    Dear Daily Mail and Met Office

    The issue is not how hot it is but whether emission reduction will moderate the rate of warming.

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/14/climateaction/

    • Gerry, England permalink
      December 21, 2018 1:54 pm

      Do you think somebody should tell him that the Modern Warm Period ended on 2005 and the slow cooling of the Little Ice Age has begun?

  10. Angusmac permalink
    December 21, 2018 1:49 am

    What a catastrophe, if this weather continues southern England could end up with a climate like, er,… southern France!

    • dave permalink
      December 25, 2018 5:06 pm

      “…like,er,…southern France!”

      I have been promised this for so long. I used to ask whether we would also get French food, but as French cuisine is now in terminal decline I do not particularly care what the answer is.

  11. RAH permalink
    December 21, 2018 7:25 am

    Self fulfilling prophecy since the MET not only made the prediction but holds the power over the measurements and records that will “prove” their claim.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      December 21, 2018 1:52 pm

      Perhaps they will send out a fleet of ice cream vans to park by the stevenson screens.

  12. Athelstan permalink
    December 21, 2018 10:10 am

    Expect in 2019 a ‘vintage’ British summer, cool, wet, breezy.

  13. Russ Wood permalink
    December 21, 2018 12:21 pm

    I’ve been watching the SST graphic at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml, and I saw that an El Nino was forming a few months ago. But, as far as my ignorant eyes can tell, the Nino pattern is breaking up, and I would hazard a guess that it ain’t gonna happen this year.

    • JCalvertN permalink
      December 24, 2018 12:06 pm

      It’s certainly beginning to look that way. Check out these two!

      • dave permalink
        December 25, 2018 5:08 pm

        A weak El Nino seems most likely.

  14. December 21, 2018 2:10 pm

    British friends who visited this summer said they had really been enjoying their great summer. They actually had many sunny days. Unusual but highly welcome.

  15. December 25, 2018 1:12 am

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  16. December 25, 2018 3:54 pm

    Well now we know. They are right busy manipulating the figures to ensure it all happens.

  17. Anthony Robin. Appleby permalink
    December 27, 2018 4:52 pm

    The owners of the Daily Mail must be ruing the day that Geordie Greig was appointed Editor ( replacing the talented Paul Dacre ) I hear that he moved in the exalted circles of the owners, the aristocratic Harmsworths……..Hence his seamless move from the” Mail on Sunday”. It will be interesting watching the circulation plummet as he stamps his rabidly remainer views in print and the whole tenor of the paper is altered to resemble a Guardian lite propaganda sheet.

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