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Best Monsoon For Years In India

October 6, 2019
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood


 daily evolution of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall, cumulative, 2019

All India Rainfall 2019


India’s monsoon season has now officially ended, with rainfall totals 10% above normal. This has counteracted a run of below average years, largely El Nino related.

Long term trends however show that runs of drought years such as this one are perfectly usual. Also that there have been many years with rainfall totals higher than this monsoon.

All-India Summer Monsoon (June-September) Rainfall (AISMR) Anomalies during 1871-2017

According to the Guardian, this must be unadulterated bad news:


However, for the Indians themselves, it is all excellent news:


The Modi government has finally seen its first good monsoon. 2019 is possible the best monsoon year since 1994. What is more, the September rains have broken the record of the last 102 years, drenching most parts, especially central India. It has taken every forecaster by surprise. We at Skymet had assessed September to be the best month of this monsoon, with rains at 102% of LPA. But the actual number has been 153%, the highest since 1917.

Equally heartening is the fact that the spatial distribution of rainfall has been good this year. Perennially water-stared Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh have, in particular, received excellent rains. With water levels in India’s 113 major reservoirs also at nearly 87% of their live storage capacities – as against the last 10-years’ average for this time – the Modi government can take comfort from a great start in its second innings. The excess rainfall, especially in September, would help in the accumulation of residual moisture in the soil that will prove beneficial for the coming rabi winter-spring crop. The replenishment of the water table and aquifers may even see us through till the next monsoon.



Cotton output in India, the world’s biggest producer, is set to surge after the heaviest monsoon rain in a quarter century, adding to global supply at a time when prices are near their weakest in more than three years. The crop may reach at least 36.5 million bales of 170 kilograms each (375 pounds) in the year that started Oct. 1, said Vinay N. Kotak, director at brokers Kotak Commodity Services in Mumbai. That’s more than 15% higher than output a year earlier, according to estimates from the Cotton Association of India.

India has just enjoyed its best monsoon in 25 years. In Gujarat, the top producing state, rainfall was more than 40% higher than the long-term average from June to September, while in Maharashtra, the second-largest, rain was 30% above normal. Planted area also increased to 12.77 million hectares from 12.1 million a year earlier, farm ministry data show as of Sept. 27.



The reality is that a good monsoon is not only good for farming, but helps to boost the whole economy. Something that the Guardian does not seem to appreciate.

  1. October 6, 2019 12:06 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate-

  2. October 6, 2019 12:16 pm

    “The reality is that a good monsoon is not only good for farming, but helps to boost the whole economy. Something that the Guardian does not seem to appreciate.”

    Or could it be that as people prosper, the left will not have poverty and starvation to wring their hands over and will have to find yet another cause to cluck over without ever finding a solution……?

    • Russ Wood permalink
      October 7, 2019 10:23 am

      Ah, yes! But if there aren’t enough poor for our purposes, we’ll just have to MAKE more poor (with rules, laws, etc.) to keep up the controls!

  3. Ben Vorlich permalink
    October 6, 2019 12:48 pm

    The BBC will trumpeted this as proof positive that global warming will the to increased rainfal and more extreme weather events.

  4. MrGrimNasty permalink
    October 6, 2019 5:12 pm

    No discernible AGW impact on Monsoons in 100+ years:-

  5. tom0mason permalink
    October 6, 2019 11:23 pm

    Oh no!
    Climate panic!
    India has lots of rain during a monsoon — PANIC!!

    • October 7, 2019 5:34 pm

      …enabling them to grow more food to feed more humans to overrun and destroy the planet. OH NOOOOOOS!

  6. October 7, 2019 4:48 am

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  7. October 7, 2019 9:17 am

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    The Guardian writers’ are either too wet behind the ears or too ignorant of history to understand the devastation from a sequence of poor monsoon years, which occured in the 1960s to late 1980s. Droughts in the 1890s and early part of the twentieth century were horrific. We can but hope they do not get repeated anytime soon. The last thing the Indian people need is the encircling climate vultures of #GreenImperialism expressing faux concern.

    • October 7, 2019 11:06 am

      The implication of course in such articles is that, once CO2 levels are reduced to the golden concentration of 280 ppm, then the weather will no longer exhibit extremes at all, but sail along as a sort of bland average, with no floods and no droughts. The result of blaming everything bad on CO2 is that there are people out there that really believe this thesis.

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