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Extreme Weather Not Caused By Warming Arctic–New Study Finds

February 22, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t AC Osborn

 

 image

Extreme blasts of freezing weather hitting Europe and the USA in recent years aren’t caused by a warming Arctic changing the jet stream, as previously thought.

Research by the University of Exeter disputes earlier studies suggesting a warming Arctic was creating a ‘wavier’ jet stream and linked to climate change.

They found it’s more likely the other way around with random fluctuations in the jet stream warming up the Arctic over decades.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8021267/Cold-weather-hitting-Europe-USA-NOT-caused-warming-Arctic.html

 

This is a classic case of Occam’s Razor. It has always been blindingly obvious that a wavy jet stream will push warm air into the Arctic, thus raising temperatures there. So why on earth is there a need for scientists to prove the opposite relationship?

Perhaps instead they could do something useful, such as finding out what causes these changes to the jet stream in the first place.

22 Comments
  1. Mack permalink
    February 22, 2020 11:36 am

    “Research …disputes earlier studies suggesting a warming Arctic was creating a waiver jet stream and linked to climate change.” Don’t you just love a little settled climate science? Just as well our leaders haven’t decided to upend civilization on the back of such ‘expert’ proclamations…

    In answer to your last question Paul, reference what initiates the changes to the jet stream in the first place, might the reason that these experts seem to spend less effort solving this particular quandary be that they know full well the answer is not anthropogenic in origin? And, therefore, doesn’t fit the narrative nor the funding stream of the climeageddon band wagon?

    • Mad Mike permalink
      February 22, 2020 12:13 pm

      Beat me to it Mack. My comment was going to be, “So the science is done is it?”

  2. MrGrimNasty permalink
    February 22, 2020 11:59 am

    As Heller frequently shows, scientific thinking was that global cooling was causing the wavy jet stream during the (disappeared) global cooling scare.

    Wacky idea, completely insane I know, but maybe it’s just periodic weather/nature.

    Climate alarmism is now just a never ending news cycle, jumping on whatever the weather is doing anywhere in the world. Today the Mail is blaming a poor European skiing season on Global warming, no it’s just a mild winter – weather.

    The irony is deep, considering that the retort to any mention of contradictory evidence by skeptics was “It’s just weather stupid”. The catastrophe theory is non-falsifiable and every event ‘proves’ it; the contradictions and hypocrisy of the alarmists knows no bounds.

  3. Pancho Plail permalink
    February 22, 2020 12:38 pm

    This is heresy. Greta has already authorised burning at the stake for these heretics, using, of course, environmentally approved fuel and full carbon capture.

  4. February 22, 2020 12:47 pm

    One such argument is the wavy jet stream of course but there is another. As AGW melts sea ice in the Arctic a large flow of fresh water from melted sea ice can create a salinity anomaly of sufficient strength to slow down the AMOC and thereby bring cold weather to Europe.

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/11/agw-salinity-anomaly/

    • cinaed permalink
      February 22, 2020 11:12 pm

      There’s an increase in salinity when the sea water freezes in the winter which increases the density of water in the Arctic ocean below the ice causing it to sink. The sinking of the water and sets up the deep ocean currents. The Atlantic the surface water is saltiest in the world – south of New Newfoundland to the equator – and the highest in Hurricane Alley. The average Arctic salinity is much lower then average salinity in Hurricane Alley.

      • February 23, 2020 7:21 am

        Thank you sir for this interesting information.

      • dennisambler permalink
        February 23, 2020 8:44 am

        “Yes, the Ocean Has Warmed; No, It?s Not ?Global Warming?”
        by Dr. Robert E. Stevenson
        http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/ocean.html

        “Thermohaline circulation is responsible for the formation of the bottom-water
        masses in the world’s oceans: the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) originates basically in the region of the Labrador Sea; the Weddell Sea is the source of the deep-water in the circumpolar Southern Ocean; and the Pacific Deep Water originates in the Ross Sea. In many other places in the oceans, and seas, as well, surface waters are carried into the depths by thermohaline circulation.

        So, it is not surprising that those modellers who “need” to get warm surface
        waters to move into the depths of the oceans, and remain sequestered there for long periods of time, would turn to the physical mechanism of this vertical
        circulation system. Their hope (claim) is that there can be occasions when
        salinity, rather than temperature, is the prime determining factor in the
        density of the surface waters. Then, warm water, made dense by an increase in the sea’s salt content, would sink.

        It does not happen!

        The primary physical factor in determining the density of sea water is the
        temperature (Sverdrup, Johnson, and Fleming, 1943). In the open ocean, top or bottom, salinity differences are measured in a few parts per thousand.
        Thermohaline circulation takes place where the surface waters become colder than the waters beneath. The large vertical movements occur in polar seas, where accelerated radiation makes the surface waters greatly colder than the deeper waters.”

      • February 23, 2020 9:23 am

        Very interesting indeed and thank you for that link.

    • dave permalink
      February 23, 2020 8:49 am

      The Gulf Stream is driven by the winds and not by the AMOC.

      But, in any case, it is merely a myth that the Gulf Stream keeps Western Europe from freezing:

      https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/

  5. Broadlands permalink
    February 22, 2020 1:30 pm

    It’s what is called ‘natural variability’. The AGW Cult doesn’t like natural climates. They are out to remove and prevent natural events. They will ‘mitigate’ and replace them with billions of tons of captured, transported and safely stored man-made CO2 under pressure. If that doesn’t work …Fill the Grand Canyon with dry ice? Make huge amounts of carbonated beverages but store them in the Carlsbad Caverns along with ethanol drinks. Do it all with batteries and solar panels. Seems simple enough to address this ‘settled science’ existential climate emergency.

  6. Peter MacFarlane permalink
    February 22, 2020 2:08 pm

    ” finding out what causes these changes to the jet stream in the first place.”

    Well it’s bound to be either global warming or Brexit, so why bother spending time finding out?

  7. El Toro permalink
    February 22, 2020 2:19 pm

    How about NATURAL variations in the solar wind, solar flares, coronal mass ejections? I understand that Piers Corbyn takes note of these. “The Sun Kings” by Stuart Clark is an excellent read on this subject. It’s not unreasonable to expect ‘space weather’ to influence the stratosphere.

  8. Gerry, England permalink
    February 22, 2020 2:51 pm

    My understanding is that during a solar minimum the atmosphere cools and shrinks which creates Rossby Waves on the jeststreams. Spaceweather has a thermosphere climate index which is currently at 3.7. Lowest recorded in Feb 2009 is 2.05 while the max is 49.4 recorded in……October 1957!!!!! Looks like the thermosphere didn’t get the warmimg message.

    • L.A. McCarley permalink
      February 22, 2020 4:39 pm

      Indeed. Components of the TSP Index are (1) the Thermosphere is Cooling as N2O and CO2 gas molecules now escape into space; (2) the Solar Kp Index that quantifies the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field disturbance is calm, Kp=1 as the Solar Dynamo observed toroidal(4) magnetic fields will be out-of-phase from 2020 to 2053. Sir Edward “Teddy” C. Bullard, cofounder Marine geophysics, textbook explained how the Earth’s Total Magnetic Field, Atmospheric Pressure and Temperature are highly correlated; if you think this way: magnetic field weakens, molecules escape the field at lower pressure, temperatures drop. Iceland’s Geophysicists published experiments verifying Sir Bullard’s lessons in cooling and warming. Global? True. It’s a pity, the dominant white male billionaire class has Faith in 16th-17th century GHG Theory resurrected by Deep Ecologists Maurice Strong, the Ehrlich’s and JP Holdren influence on Al Gore, Tim Wirth and Ted Turner. GHG Theory of heat exchange was disproved by Max Planck (1905) and Albert Einstein, Modern physics. For 50-years, Solar physicists accepted radiative forcing, while Climate Modeling Ecologists lobbied and stonewalled Climate Realists and Total Solar Irradiance of our Variable Star. Surely, the literate know madness of crowds is common. Daily Mail: follow the money. Legalized domestic propaganda replaced investigative journalism under the NDAA of 2012, signed by POTUS Obama in January 2013. Al Gore’s $24Mm net worth after his divorce is $300Mm

  9. Martin Howard Keith Brumby permalink
    February 22, 2020 2:59 pm

    “So why on earth is there a need for scientists to prove the opposite relationship?

    Perhaps instead they could do something useful, such as finding out what causes these changes to the jet stream in the first place.”

    I’d rather think they were doing absolutely anything, useful or not , as long as it wasn’t driving ecomarxist agitprop.

    How about flipping burgers?

    I don’t eat burgers (I stick to proper steaks), so I’d be quite relaxed about them doing that.

  10. Lon McCarley permalink
    February 22, 2020 4:41 pm

    Indeed. Components of the TSP Index are (1) the Thermosphere is Cooling as N2O and CO2 gas molecules now escape into space; (2) the Solar Kp Index that quantifies the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field disturbance is calm, Kp=1 as the Solar Dynamo observed toroidal(4) magnetic fields will be out-of-phase from 2020 to 2053. Sir Edward “Teddy” C. Bullard, cofounder Marine geophysics, textbook explained how the Earth’s Total Magnetic Field, Atmospheric Pressure and Temperature are highly correlated; if you think this way: magnetic field weakens, molecules escape the field at lower pressure, temperatures drop. Iceland’s Geophysicists published experiments verifying Sir Bullard’s lessons in cooling and warming. Global? True. It’s a pity, the dominant white male billionaire class has Faith in 16th-17th century GHG Theory resurrected by Deep Ecologists Maurice Strong, the Ehrlich’s and JP Holdren influence on Al Gore, Tim Wirth and Ted Turner. GHG Theory of heat exchange was disproved by Max Planck (1905) and Albert Einstein, Modern physics. For 50-years, Solar physicists accepted radiative forcing, while Climate Modeling Ecologists lobbied and stonewalled Climate Realists and Total Solar Irradiance of our Variable Star. Surely, the literate know madness of crowds is common.

    Daily Mail: Legalized domestic propaganda replaced Climate investigative journalism under the NDAA of 2012, signed by POTUS Obama in January 2013.

  11. Joe Jarrett permalink
    February 22, 2020 6:49 pm

    ….. “” by a warming Arctic changing
    the jet stream as previously
    thought…. ”
    That is the CRUX, HUBRIS AGW folks
    think they think..
    They mimic a microbe, on a flea’s
    butt, on an Amy’s butt climbing an
    elephant’s leg,,,, and proclaming
    it is climbing K2….

  12. February 23, 2020 9:04 am

    Thank you for this comment and that link

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