Michael Kelly Typo Update
May 19, 2020
By Paul Homewood
Just in case anybody missed my update on Michael Kelly’s paper, GWPF have now corrected what I guessed what was a typo about Dinorwig, which I pointed out to them.
It now reads 9 GWh, not GW, as was apparent in the Notes.
Thanks to all you eagle eyes who spotted it!
The revised PDF is here.
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2020/05/KellyDecarb-1.pdf
23 Comments
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Thanks: it slipped in the penultimate draft when 9GWh was put into words.
Michael K
The original concept for Dinorwig was thus.Off.-peak power from nuclear generators would pump water from the lower lake to the upper reservoir.This head of water would then be released.Dinorwig turbines would produce peak- lopping power.I believe power could be sustained for hours if necessary. This, built in the days of the old C.E.G.B. An industry built by Engineers and a highly skilled workforce. At that time the envy of the world.
Still brilliant, but it’s not a power station, it’s a battery. Elon Musk should come to Snowdonia to see how it’s done properly.
I operated Dinorwig remotely from National Control for a number of years. A magnificent asset, that was reliable as well as always responsive, full load in 10 seconds. Many a time it played a key role in supporting the system. However, the ecological impact and the cost would make this impossible today. A Nationalised industry with many planning powers and a vast investment budget for a fleet of Nuclear plants and no significant environmental lobby created the conditions. Today we have the environmental lobby, no planning powers, a disaggregated industry and no money.
Is there a corrected pdf of this?
Yes, it’s here:
Click to access KellyDecarb-1.pdf
Thank you.
Come on people! As we’re so well aware, here, that there’s ZERO way that the society we have today could exist as put forth by the lunatic “green” ________, why even make any comparisons? Either we retreat societally and economically about 200-300 (maybe pre-steam?) years AND have a massive die-off of humanity world wide, or some? a majority? will wake up and see that reality of even attempting a minuscule percentage of “renewable” replacement for coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear just can’t be done. The poor southern Australians are the canary in the coal mine. No, I didn’t forget hydro.
South Australia wasnt even a canary , more like the birdseed, as they always relied on the interconnector to neighbouring Victoria with its substantial coal powered capacity. The error in thinking , probably ignoring engineering advice, was that the Victorian grid would cut the AC connector in a heartbeat- literally, when the SA Grid became unstable.
They should look to neighbouring NZ which is spite of being a long narrow country favourably oriented to prevailing winds only ‘relies’ on wind for about 5%. They have dispersed hydro to maintain frequency and use geothermal as another renewable source. Yet natural gas is retained as a quick starter and carry load as well.
Don’t forget the emergency diesel for when the money is too good shipping the power out of state and you drain all the lakes!
Read the government commissioned report Absolute Zero. It throws off any pretence that these things are possible. We all have to live differently. Oh, and aviation, shipping, concrete and steel production have to stop.
It wants most aviation stopped by 2030.
If you wobdered how on earth they shut down airports and airlines in that timescale……er……we’ve all recently been finding out.
Confirmation of extreme confirmation bias – it’s the evil cars stupid, a foregone conclusion, and we”ll show you no matter what. See how many absurd ‘scientific’ statements/logic fails you can spot in this.
Of course that claimed reduction amounts to net zero (!) consequences to anyone or anything locally (apart from a tiny bit less plant fertilization in London parks) or globally climatically speaking, and yet represents massive economic damage .
A little cool analysis brings clarity to so many things.
So, in that spirit, although off-topic, the latest definite data for weekly mortality in England and Wales is intensely interesting.
Excess deaths in a week are defined as the actual number less the average for that week for the previous five years.
Excess deaths, for week ending May 1 were 8,012, and for week ending May 8 were 3,081; so that is an improvement of 4,931.
Death certificates which mentioned covid-19, for week ending May 1 were 6,035, and for week ending May 8 were 3,930; so that is an improvement of 2,105.
4,931 – 2,105 = 2,826
That is one, admittedly rough, estimate of the weekly excess mortality in the week ending May 1 which was NOT directly attributable to infection with covid-19.
Many hypotheses are possible. Such as:
The general situation in care homes became so bad that people died of neglect (not deliberate, of course).
The NHS has been systematically failing most of its clientele for two months, because it was instructed, above all, to preserve itself.
Lockdown stress compounded with financial worry, is itself, is a killer.
Some covid-19 related deaths were not picked up as such.
Et cetera.
We can be sure of one thing; whatever the reason, this particular epidemic outbreak is disappearing.
Think you’d want at least the standard deviation on the average number to tell if the over/under is within the expected population range. Maybe even a trend line based on the past 10-30 years for the week. Otherwise, it doesn’t really mean all that much.
Pretty obvious it’s well under control at the moment, at least. If the trend continues we’ll be back into normal weekly mortality soon (probably are already).
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending8may2020
“…standard deviation…”
Actually, that sort of thing is in the background documentation. There is no doubt that a statistically significant spike has occurred.
What is not clear is how many of the deaths have merely been ‘borrowed’
from the near future. And, therefore, it is not clear whether it is going to be a real ‘culling of the herd,’ or just an hiccup.
I write as someone who is probably on a list of people whom Mother Nature has very little interest in keeping around. After all, I have not reproduced for thirty years. In her eyes, I am redundant.
@ your second comment, dave.
There is an evolutionary advantage to keeping grandparents alive long enough to bring up grandchildren. Honest.
It’s sufficient to throw a match into a gallon of petrol to appreciate the energy storage efficiency of fossil fuels.
A cogent, a corking piece Mr. Michael Kelly – typo or no typo.
Cyclones and floods are missing out a bit at the moment, but here’s a flood with Whaley Bridge parallels, albeit on a different scale.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52735170
“Built in 1924, the Edenville Dam was rated in unsatisfactory condition by the state in 2018 while the Sanford Dam, which was built in 1925, was given a fair condition rating, the Associated Press news agency reports. It said both dams were in the process of being sold.”
“Our current electricity system has some 90GW of installed generating capacity. During the coldest half hour last year demand peaked at about 55GW. For long periods of the year and a third of every day, it barely reaches 40GW. For most of the year, therefore, most of our expensive generating capacity is earning no revenues and is thus a drag on the productivity of our economy.”
E3G’s Tom Burke doesn’t know how an electricity system works
Err, why is there a picture or a rat’s nest telephone pole on the front of a document about electricity ? ‘The enemy’ might just pick up on that…..
I don’t know where or when that particular photograph was taken, but I see similar almost every day (at least when I was allowed out of my house). The ‘informal settlements’ around Johannesburg get their ‘free’ electricity from illegal connections to the nearest street light (as shown). Then the residents complain when the local transformer blows, saying that without the power, they can’t get their (NOT free) satellite TV!