Climate statistician Dr. Briggs rips UN IPCC reports as being ‘wrong for decades’
By Paul Homewood
The statistician William Briggs writes about the latest IPCC report:
Statistician Dr. Matt Briggs on IPCC report: "You can never be fired for being wrong in the right direction. The Experts making statements about how dire the climate is have been wrong for decades, and they are still wrong in their sparkling new IPCC Climate Assessment Report 6 released Monday. Now, as then, they warn that “extremes” are on their way. They haven’t got here yet, but they’re coming. They’re always coming." … Or they have got here, but you need to have the kind of specialized training mentioned above to recognize them.
The difference between AR6, and ARs 1-5, is not so much in the kind of errors made, for these haven’t changed at all, but in the certainty expressed in them. It’s only a slight exaggeration to say that somebody did a “Find & Replace” of every instance of “very likely” in AR5 and changed them to “virtually certain.” Because they are always wrong in the direction our rulers want them to be.
Experts said every animal that is cute, photogenic, or delicious was going to die; whereas every beast or plant that bit, stung, or poisoned was going to flourish. Mountains of “research” was done to “prove” that everything we loved was going to be destroyed, where everything we hated was going to increase. Because of a tenth or so of a degree increase in global mean temperature.
Full story here.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
OK, but who is Dr Briggs?
Click on the name under his mugshot..
Bit of a religious nutter, however right about some things.
‘Nutter’ is a bit strong. ‘Nerd’ I’ll go with! The ‘filioque’ debate is a bit esoteric but it was enough to split the Eastern churches from Rome in the fourth century and that split endures.
I’ve not yet found anyone to fault him on climate stats which is all that matters in this debate!
He is an expert on statistical methods, something the alarmists are desperately short on.
More about Briggs
https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/07/13/a-comment-from-ralph-alexander/
“Experts said every animal that is cute, photogenic, or delicious was going to die; whereas every beast or plant that bit, stung, or poisoned was going to flourish.”
A great riposte to proponents of the “impending 6th Great Extinction”.
And Paul Ehrlich says that the 6th mass extinction “is here”.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/07/22/our-obsession-with-the-end-of-times/
Briggs has another post, looking at the 2003 prediction that Britain would be ‘Siberian’ in less than 20 years — as reported by the Guardian, obviously 🙄
Shocking Report! Climate Change Will Destroy Us All! Gads!
BY BRIGGS ON AUGUST 9, 2021
https://wmbriggs.com/post/36933/
Statistics are a great tool in the right hands, but weapons of mass destruction in the wrong hands.
The IPCC report has developed a new set of statistical criteria for confidence limits. Probability is now whatever their “scientists” think.
The IPCC report has also developed a new set of English language meanings for words related to confidence-levels in the reports:-
Likely = Some extreme devotees believe;
Very likely = it maybe possible that;
Medium Confidence = unlikely, but some devotees believe ; and,
Highly Certain = the IPCC devotees think, but will not allow any challenges from deniers.
Don’t forget ‘virtually…’
Like the old true meanings of letters from civil servants:
“Thank you for your query. We are looking into the matter.”
(We have lost the file.)
“Thank you for your reminder. We are looking urgently into the matter.”
(We are looking for the file.)
Thank you for your further reminder. We are considering our response.”
(The file was empty.)
“Thank you for your reminder. In view of your unfortunate tone, this correspondence is now closed.”
( zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz)
Another new IPCC definition:
Red alert = “Climate Emergency” = Turkey Lurkey is getting really worried and Henny Penny says that we are all doomed.
The ‘RED’ alert is to warn us that we are being sold down the Yangtze. (OK, it’s yellow). I must encourage my grandson to take up a course in Mandarin.
The old adage “figures never lie by liars sure can figure” seems to be live and well.
The “experts” from IPCC and company keep on pumping steroids into their “brains’….
UK POWER SECURITY 2021.
It is now accepted that the idea that the wind is always blowing somewhere does not give the UK wind farms any guarantee, and commonly a week can occur without winds or much sun in the UK during the period of winter peak demand. A Parliamentary report by the DBEIS was submitted in 2019 called Statutory Security of Supply Report 2019. This report was basically a whitewash report covering only the next year of supply with no longer term view and saying that the UK was secure regarding gas and electrical supply.
It is instructive to compare the UK power security in 2021 with that in 2004. The recent DUKES report (29th July 2021) has many useful tables.
Summary DUKES July 2021 Installed Capacity (MW)
Major Power Producers Year 2021 2004
Total MPP coal 4,580 28,311
Total MPP natural gas 30,903 22,998
Total MPP sour gas 1,380
Total MPP diesel/gas oil 1,313 1,088
Total MPP nuclear 7,833 12,048
Total MPP biomass 3,400
Total MPP waste 463 52
Total MPP hydro 1,466 1,382
Total MPP pumped storage 2,900 2,787
Total MPP onshore wind 10,610 0
Total MPP offshore wind 10,410 0
Total MPP solar 4,598 0
Other 5,189
TOTAL 79,856 73,855
Secure and dispatchable TOTAL 19,055 48,070
Weather dependent TOTAL 25,618 0
Secure and dispatchable power is that which does not depend upon weather or immediate import of fuel. I have excluded CCGT and storage. The security and price of future gas supplies are not within the control of the UK government, unless fracking recommences
What is immediately apparent is that in 2004 the UK had 48 GW of secure power, (close to the maximum demand at the time) it now has only 19 GW, far below the maximum demand. The UK power system is almost entirely at the mercy of external forces. Even gas storage is also reducing (although we have increased the storage of LNG).
In 2004 the UK was just about in balance on gas supply too, although it was importing some gas mainly from Norway and exporting to Belgium and the Netherlands at least seasonally. There had been a small net surplus just before that.
This chart shows the imports (but not net – i.e. exports not taken off).
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/W0qOT/2/
The chart should be explained to MPs etc. The UK is using 2.6 EJ/year and importing 2 EJ of this. Energy Security for the UK is a clearly a long-dead-duck. We can be held to ransom by a number of foreign-powers at any time with increasing likelihood as our dependence grows. I suppose that fracking could be re-incarnated??