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Are Extreme Weather Death Tolls Rising?

November 23, 2021

By Paul Homewood

Is it true, or did you hear it on the BBC?



More and more people are dying from extreme weather, right??

It must surely be true , because the BBC says it is, not to mention climate scientists.

 “People are already dying and species are becoming extinct with current temperatures,"

Piers Forster – IPCC Lead Author

It’s all very strange though, because the BBC themselves said the opposite just two months ago!

The number of weather-related disasters to hit the world has increased five-fold over the past 50 years, says the World Meteorological Organization.

However, the number of deaths because of the greater number of storms, floods and droughts has fallen sharply.


So just what are the facts?

According to Our World in Data, the death toll from natural disasters is now at record lows.



Their data comes from the International Disaster Database, EM-DAT. Their figures include earthquakes and volcanoes, and when we exclude these, the same pattern is evident:



Average annual deaths between 2011 and 2020 were 10570, a quarter of the previous decade. Needless to say, many disaster events were not recorded earlier in the record, notably prior to 1920.

Last year, an estimated 15080 died from natural disasters. Excluding earthquakes and volcanoes, this figure comes down to 14885, slightly higher than the decadal average, but way below the 2001 to 2010 number:





This year to date, the death toll is much lower at 5881. Obviously there are year-to-year fluctuations, but overall it is plain that Justin Rowlatt told an outright lie in that Panorama programme just two weeks ago.

He was after all specifically reporting on weather disasters this year.

  1. Douglas Dragonfly permalink
    November 23, 2021 10:58 am

    It might be true in the UK.
    People dying from extreme fuel poverty.

  2. Stuart Hamish permalink
    November 23, 2021 11:09 am

    The BBC two months ago : ” The number of weather related disasters to hit the world has increased five fold over the past 50 years ,says the World Meteorological Organization ” …….This is another sleight of hand deception The BBC cannot possibly be unware of the UNDRR data that shows the number of climatic disasters has declined globally by 11% since the turn of the millennium .[ The year 2000 ] . This fact is all the more significant in the twenty first century age of globalized media whereas the data prior to the 1990’s is considered less reliable .

    Less and less people are dying from extreme weather according to the EM DAT International Disaster Database and for the BBC [ and the ABC here in Australia ] to hide or downplay this information is a disgrace.

  3. mjr permalink
    November 23, 2021 11:21 am

    The other sleight of hand is saying “The number of weather-related disasters to hit the world has increased five-fold over the past 50 years, says the World Meteorological Organization.”
    This needs to be qualified by the word “reported”. Today with social media a flash flood in remote Africa where someone is drowned is on line and reported and may be treated as a weather related disaster. In 1970 no one would have known. Also local droughts which were never reported are now world news. Also the definition of “disaster” has changed in line with modern wokeness..

  4. Ray Sanders permalink
    November 23, 2021 11:23 am

    If it is okay with Paul, I intend to forward this to the BBC “Reality Check” section to “Reality Check” their own heap of crock of sh1t!

  5. Harry Passfield permalink
    November 23, 2021 11:34 am

    What on Earth is the point of OFCOM?

    • Gerry, England permalink
      November 23, 2021 1:09 pm

      To give the illusion that you can complain about broadcasters. A lot like the illusion that OFGEM is there to protect energy users….

  6. Phoenix44 permalink
    November 23, 2021 11:44 am

    Given the increase in population surely we would expect more people to die if everything else stayed the same? Without adjusting data for the variables you are not trying to investigate, data is meaningless.

  7. Harry Passfield permalink
    November 23, 2021 11:50 am

    Looking at the ‘Estimated Deaths’ chart it’s instructive to note how high the numbers were in the ‘cold’ decade that was the ’40s.

  8. T Walker permalink
    November 23, 2021 12:37 pm

    “So just what are the facts?”

    Facts?, did you say facts Mr Homewood?

    So last century. The BBC now only reports its truth, which is just some BS.

  9. MrGrimNasty permalink
    November 23, 2021 3:21 pm

    People are suffering and dying from BBC climate alarmism, that much is sure.

    From kids feeling depressed and hopeless because they believe it, to people like me given dangerously high blood pressure because I can see through the lies and see the damage being done to our country/freedoms/economy, yet there is no way I can effectively fight back.

  10. Broadlands permalink
    November 23, 2021 3:27 pm

    “People are already dying and species are becoming extinct with current temperatures,”

    Well, yes people are dying. But how many species with legitimate scientific taxonomic names (genus and species) have gone extinct…with or without current temperatures (whatever current means)? And, how does that number compare with the number of new species being described by taxonomists every year?

    Such a statement is worthless without some data to back it up.

    • Matt Dalby permalink
      November 24, 2021 9:44 pm

      Given that scientists can’t even agree if there are 10 million species on the planet, 30 million species, or some other number how can they possibly know how many are going extinct. Of course , it can all be calculated using (highly flawed) computer models.
      If an alarmist ever tells you that people are dying and species are going extinct due to climate change simply ask them who/which species and where this is happening.
      For the record I can only think of 2 species of mammal (plus one sub species) out of roughly 4,200 species (plus many more sub species) that have gone extinct this centuary, hardly a major disaster, and none of them could reasonably be blamed on climate change.
      The species to have gone extinct are:-
      Yangtze river dolphin, due to pollution/dam building
      Bramble Quay Melomnys, a type of rodent that was only found on one very small sandy island off Australia, exact cause unknown
      Northern White Rhino, only a subspecies, caused mainly by habitat loss and poaching.

  11. Dr Ken Pollock permalink
    November 23, 2021 5:38 pm

    May I repeat myself and say that in the decades ahead, the way in which young people have been terrified by the talk of climate catastrophe will be regarded as the worst example of child abuse known to man – and we all know there have been some pretty awful instances of child abuse in our history. This, however, is widespread and apparently due to our normal life, which makes us all complicit – and hence guilty! Let us all hope the scales will fall from our eyes before too much more harm is done – done to millions of ordinary people who are essentially guiltless.

    • November 27, 2021 11:19 pm

      Might these be the same young people dinned by ceaseless propaganda justifying deadly force prohibitionism against “the wrong” plant leaves and harmless psychedelics? There was a saying once, about the tangled web “we” weave… With any luck, they’ll vote libertarian rather than for more communo-fascist socialism.

  12. dennisambler permalink
    November 23, 2021 5:40 pm

    Piers Forster – IPCC Lead Author….and a member of the Climate Change Committee

  13. tom0mason permalink
    November 23, 2021 9:43 pm

    Extreme alarmist reporting from opinionated but ignorant ‘journalists’ are rising from the major MSM outlets. The hyper-alarmist like the BBC’s irrationals of Roger Harrabin, Justin Rowlatt and so many others show this to be true! Showing them real observed climate data is to caste pearls before pigs.
    The BBC is bonkers about virus ‘case’ numbers, climate change, and net zero, they offer no rationality and certainly no logical analysis — just over-emotional opinions from ignorances. The are a national disgrace and should be defunded by the government ASAP.

  14. Dr Tim Ball - Historical Climatologist permalink
    November 24, 2021 8:23 am

    Book: ‘The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science’
    Book: ‘Human Caused Global Warming, the Biggest Deception in History’

    • tom0mason permalink
      November 24, 2021 10:02 am

      Excellent video and so prescient in today’s alarmist driven news cycle.

  15. November 27, 2021 11:15 pm

    Unnamed “scientists” like Greta…


  1. ‘The death toll from natural disasters is now at record lows’ — | NZ Conservative Coalition

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