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Atlantic Hurricane Season 2021

November 30, 2021

By Paul Homewood

 

 image

http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/season.asp?storm_season=2021 

The Atlantic Hurricane season has now officially ended, with a count of seven hurricanes, spot on the 30-year average.

Of these four were major, slightly above the average of three.

Long term comparisons of Atlantic hurricanes are essentially meaningless, because many hurricanes were simply never spotted or measured prior to the satellite era.

For example, if we compared this year’s tracking chart of hurricanes/tropical storms with 1932, when there were a similar number of hurricanes, we can readily see how many more mid ocean hurricanes are now being observed:

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/tws_atl_latest.gif

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/track_maps/1932_base_rev2.gif

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/1932.html

It is also important to recognise the effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or AMO. When this is in warm phase, as it has been since the mid 1990s, hurricane seasons tend to be more active, as NOAA explain:

  image

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/record-breaking-atlantic-hurricane-season-draws-to-end

This effect is obvious on the above graph, with the 1930s to 60s (Warm AMO) recording many more hurricanes than the 1960s to 90s (Cold AMO).

Because of the lack of historical data, the best measure we have is for US landfalling hurricanes, for which there is good data as far back as 1851.

Again, the AMO cycles are clearcut, but there is no evidence that hurricanes are either becoming more frequent or severe in the long term.

image

image

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

 

Finally, globally hurricane activity has been well below average this year, thanks to a quiet typhoon season in the Pacific.

Meanwhile, overall hurricane numbers show no long term trends at all.

 image

image

https://climatlas.com/tropical/

5 Comments
  1. Gamecock permalink
    November 30, 2021 12:55 pm

    ‘Long term comparisons of Atlantic hurricanes are essentially meaningless.’

    Because hurricanes are weather events. And weather varies. Like thunderstorms and tornadoes. Sometimes you get ’em, sometimes you don’t.

    There is no information to be teased from all the hurricane data.

    • Broadlands permalink
      November 30, 2021 2:46 pm

      The information to be gleaned is the fact that they now give a name to anything that has winds and lots of rain out in the ocean somewhere. So.. the numbers pile up faster than they used to?

  2. November 30, 2021 1:17 pm

    The climate hype gets worse, but the weather carries on much as before.

  3. Joe Public permalink
    November 30, 2021 1:24 pm

    “The Atlantic Hurricane season has now officially ended, with a count of seven hurricanes, spot on the 30-year average.

    Of these four were major, slightly above the average of three.”

    GreenSpeak translation:

    “Climate CRISIS; THIRTY% increase in MAJOR hurricanes”

  4. Broadlands permalink
    November 30, 2021 2:54 pm

    Atlantic

    AL012021 – Tropical Storm ANA
    AL022021 – Tropical Storm BILL
    AL032021 – Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE
    AL042021 – Tropical Storm DANNY
    AL052021 – Hurricane ELSA
    AL062021 – Tropical Storm FRED
    AL072021 – Major Hurricane GRACE
    AL082021 – Hurricane HENRI
    AL092021 – Major Hurricane IDA
    AL102021 – Tropical Storm KATE
    AL112021 – Tropical Storm JULIAN
    AL122021 – Major Hurricane LARRY
    AL132021 – Tropical Storm MINDY
    AL142021 – Hurricane NICHOLAS
    AL152021 – Tropical Storm ODETTE
    AL162021 – Tropical Storm PETER
    AL172021 – Tropical Storm ROSE
    AL182021 – Major Hurricane SAM
    AL192021 – Tropical Storm TERESA
    AL202021 – Tropical Storm VICTOR
    AL212021 – Tropical Storm WANDA

    That’s the total of “extreme” Atlantic weather in 2021. They give a name to almost anything that is windy and rainy?

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