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Melting Antarctic ice will slow down a major global deep ocean current by 40% by 2050

March 30, 2023

By Paul Homewood




Will slow down?

Only in their computer models!




  1. March 30, 2023 6:30 pm

    I wonder how many journalists will read “abyssal” as “abysmal” 🙂

    • Tony permalink
      March 30, 2023 9:20 pm

      I read “journalist” as “abysmal”.

  2. liardetg permalink
    March 30, 2023 6:40 pm

    ‘under a high emissions scenario’. What relationship between CO2 level and global temperature are they assuming? Would it be an IPCC model? Which? Looking at the steady rise since whenever and compared with the vagaries of global temperature, it’s hard to see a correlation. Ooo! It’s not RCP8.5 is it!!! Oh dear. What nonsense.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      March 31, 2023 8:35 am

      In other words RCP8.5 which is already hugely unrealistic.

    • Chris Phillips permalink
      March 31, 2023 2:33 pm

      Another apocalyptic prediction based on modelling which you can make predict anything by suitably “adjusting” the assumptions fed into it

  3. March 30, 2023 6:40 pm

    Meanwhile, in the real world, it is not even clear whether Antarctica is gaining or losing net ice. The best and most comprehensive NASA study of Antarctic ice mass trends is Zwally, et al (2021). It reports an Antarctic ice mass trend of −12 ±64 Gt/yr, which is a fancy way of saying “approximately zero.” (12 Gt/yr = 0.1 inch/century,)

    Here’s the paper:

    • Adam Gallon permalink
      March 31, 2023 7:16 am

      That slipped out quietly.
      His 2015 paper caused squawks amongst the Catastrophists & this follow-up was delayed for several years, as expected, because it doesn’t support the Antarctic vanishing like an ice lolly on a summer day.

  4. Broadlands permalink
    March 30, 2023 6:46 pm

    How many know that man-made CFCs have “drifted” to abyssal depths in the Weddell Sea? And what downwells in one place has to upwell somewhere else. In this case, northward to join the deep circulation of the world oceans.

    “Dissolved chlorofluorocarbon studies in the Weddell Sea”

  5. arfurbryant permalink
    March 30, 2023 6:59 pm


  6. Graeme Hook permalink
    March 30, 2023 7:03 pm

    Be fun if someone were to put all the different terms used for all the different ways a model can be worked, applied and manipulated into one sentence and then add “in a high emission scenario”.

    • Broadlands permalink
      March 31, 2023 12:39 am

      Go to an internet search engine and look up “entabulator” and watch the explanation. It might give you an idea what might happen.

      • Graeme Hook permalink
        March 31, 2023 7:20 pm

        Wow! and I thought I knew how auto’s worked! found a rear pump in one once along with the front pump but never ever found a “girdle spring”! Cheers mate!

  7. Chaswarnertoo permalink
    March 30, 2023 7:06 pm

    The Antarctic is growing, not melting, morons.

  8. catweazle666 permalink
    March 30, 2023 7:26 pm

    More Playstation “science”…

    • gezza1298 permalink
      March 31, 2023 5:28 pm

      Nice one!

  9. March 30, 2023 7:35 pm

    I am with the average age 74 year old Swiss ladies of clearly substantial means who have so few real problems in their lives that they feel the need to go to law to worry about how a fraction of a degree warming is going to endanger their lives in 2050, when they have an average age of 100. I just keep thinking, when is Joe and Josephine Public going to wake up, but I realise the crap the fear and the lies they are being fed on a daily basis has stupefied them into feel ashamed and submit to eat crap on a daily basis. Who needs the wonder which is Western Civilization founded in Christian Judaic principles when you can have anarchy and chaos offering a race to the bottom as an alternative.

  10. T Walker permalink
    March 30, 2023 7:49 pm

    In 1950 I will have been deceased about 5 years – well in my thoroughly parametrised model anyway – you can only dream can’t you.

    That will be my main regret – not being here in 2050 to see Paul Ehrlich claim to have been right for the previous 100 years!!

  11. M E permalink
    March 30, 2023 9:30 pm

    Do they know that the Antarctic is a continent? There are varying amounts of ice on land . Ice on the fringes around the continent is affected by ocean currents ,
    of course. Or so I was told at University..a long time ago

  12. John Wilson permalink
    March 31, 2023 12:33 am

    The key point is ” if conditions do not change ” Conditions always change , since global climate change is a cycle , not linear, and if , as some believe , we are going into a cooling cycle, then such analysis is moot. In other words the study means little.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      March 31, 2023 8:38 am

      I’m not convinced that it’s a cycle l. There’s clearly very large amounts of natural variation and probably some cyclical elements but it’s not obvious that climate isn’t influenced by 10s if not 100s of variables that do not all “cycle”. I think “phase” is a better word.

  13. Phoenix44 permalink
    March 31, 2023 8:34 am

    Do they really need to keep running their models to show that (i) lots of warming melts stuff and (ii) that’s really, really bad for something somewhere?

    There’s far too many of these fools with far too much money and far too much time on their hands.

    • dave permalink
      March 31, 2023 9:11 am

      The alarmist shills have gone from scraping the bottom of the barrel to scraping the bottom of the sea! In a little while, they will be saying that global warming is into the ground and making volcanos and earthquakes more likely. They will be believed by many people. This is not a joke, but a sober prediction. They have already gloomily said it is in the permafrost.

      There is no limit to human stupidity and gullibility.

  14. Gerard WROE permalink
    April 3, 2023 2:51 pm

    Matthew England of UNSW has been publishing papers like this for some time. The level of Antarctic icemelt to reduce the Antarctic overturning current by 40% by 2100 is equivalent to a 25mm rise in sea level just from the Antarctic. This isn’t just RCP8.5, it is the highest projected icemelt for RCP8.5. In contrast the IPCC AR6 forecast is closer to 2.5mm. Matthew England in an interview says the 40% reduction could lead to a collapse…going beyond his own model. He is presenting at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge on 19th April. There is a Zoom invite for members of Cambridge University

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