Forget 1.5C, Now It’s 1.0C!
By Paul Homewood
h/t Dennis Ambler
Forget about 1.5C, the climate crackpots say 1.0C is already too much:
Top climate scientist Johan Rockström says global warming above 1°C is already causing significant harm to humans.
Scientists have for years backed a goal to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, to avoid the most dangerous effects for the planet. But a new analysis says the limit to prevent significant harm to people is just 1°C.
The warning – issued this week in research published in the journal Nature – comes late, given that the Earth has already heated up by about 1.2C since preindustrial times.
The World Meteorological Organization has said global average temperatures are more likely than not to breach 1.5°C – the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement to tackle climate change – in the next five years, on a temporary basis.
Given this prospect, leading climate scientist Johan Rockström, who co-authored the new study, said in an interview that it is valuable for policymakers and the public to know that the planet is already in highly risky territory.
“If we really care about people … we must understand that there is so much scientific evidence today that the safe and just landing zone is actually already surpassed,” he said.
Research led by the Earth Commission, a group of scientists working on sustainability, had earlier found that surpassing 1.5°C of warming risks triggering tipping points for irreversible changes in earth systems such as ice sheets and coral reefs.
In the new study, they added a “justice” element to work out what level of warming brings severe and widespread impacts for humans such as death, displacement and chronic disease, as well as loss of incomes, food and water.
“We find that already 1°C equals what we define as significant harm”, with millions of people, communities, countries and regions affected permanently, said Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
“That means that 1°C becomes the just maximum level of global warming,” he added.
That level was reached in 2015 – and with warming now likely to pass 1.5°C and head towards the less ambitious Paris pact limit of “well below 2C” – Rockström said he was nervous the debate may switch to settling for 2C and delaying the current 2050 deadline to cut planet-heating emissions to net zero.
“That is a more likely outcome than tightening up climate policy today, so science that proves that keeping us on this tightrope towards fast decarbonisation is really, really essential,” he added, emphasising the importance of planting the 1.5°C flag firmly “in the ground”.
In addition, Rockström said the finding that 1°C of warming has provoked severe human consequences and costs adds to the urgency of tackling “loss and damage” fuelled by climate change – a contested topic at U.N. talks which saw a hard-won deal at last year’s COP27 summit to set up a fund for that purpose.
The study “confirms the voice” of those struggling on the climate change frontlines – whether in small island states such as the Maldives or farmers in Burkina Faso, he added.
“It’s a way of showing that this is real: 1.2C hits hard already today and we’re in the midst of this challenge right now. It’s not in the future: it’s now,” said the Swedish scientist, who also co-chairs the Earth Commission.
https://www.eco-business.com/news/15c-for-planet-1c-for-people-scientists-step-up-climate-warning/
How can anyone who calls himself a scientist seriously claim that the world’s inhabitants are worse off than they were 150 years ago, whether climate or otherwise?
Take his example of Burkina Faso, for example, (we’ll leave aside the fact that the Maldives keep building new resorts and airports!):
The study “confirms the voice” of those struggling on the climate change frontlines – whether in small island states such as the Maldives or farmers in Burkina Faso.
According to the UN, Burkina Faso’s farmers have never had it as good:
https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare
https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy
Maybe Rockstrom would prefer them all to live as their ancestors did centuries ago?
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Reblogged this on Roald J. Larsen and commented:
People should stop calling “Green” Rent & Grant Seeking Activists and Criminals “Scientists” – Johan Rockström is obviously not a scientist!
What unadulterated drivel that article was.
So a 1.0C world temperature increase is lethal. Thousands of people move permanently from Melbourne Australia to Brisbane each week. Brisbane’s mean temperature is 7C higher than Melbourne. Do these people know they are doomed?
According to NOAA in 2021 the global average temperature anomaly was plus 0.84°C. and that was lower than it was in 2016. As for “global” warming, in 2021 the Southern hemisphere was 1.7°C. colder than the Northern.
But, more to the point, what does this professor think that the world could possibly do that would lower global temperatures?
“what does this professor think that the world could possibly do that would lower global temperatures?”
Send him more money !!!
Oh noes…..We have passed peak Doom and didn’t notice!
Patrick Moore, the ex-Greenpeace one, pointed out long ago that the ‘harms’ are rarely quantified and that those which are are things unobservable to the average Joe or too remote to verify. Yes, the wide awake know the sources for truth, this site being one, but endless repetition throughout the MSM subliminally conditions the plebs to believe what they are told; they may be slightly sceptical in that they don’t actually see any effects but they are too busy to check (even if they knew where to look) and, I mean, all the people in authority wouldn’t lie to them would they!!!
From that pseudo-scientific claptrap …
“The mean annual temperature threshold of 29 °C was chosen as it is beyond what humans have historically been exposed to.”
Bollocks !!
Abu Dhabi – Average Number of Days Above 90F/32C = 213 days.
it can get up to 41C.
45 degrees Celsius is not uncommon in the Middle East (Dubai for example) and it has been like that since time immemorial
Quite correct, Realist. I lived for 10 years in Bahrain during the ’90s. Temperatures often hit 50C with 99% humidity with regular average daytime temperatures of 45C. If this so-called ‘professor’, aka Climate Change Catastrophist, believed for one nano-second in his tripe the entire population of the Lower Gulf would be extinct including Yours Truly. How do these fraudsters and charlatans get way with this guano?
Interesting post. True, it gets very warm in some countries. On a related note, can you really get 99% RH at such temperatures? I guess being surrounded by water has something to do with it. Sounds very uncomfortable.
You’d think that this sort of speculative nonsense would be called out by scientists with a more rigorous approach to their work. Perhaps they have ‘skin in the game’ and their own standing would be compromised. Corruption takes many forms and a craven reliance on public funding to support research could be one of them.
That has become the issue — the amount of intellectual and resource investment ( pace Lord Deben and Milliband) which has been wasted supporting a flawed concept and of which the public is increasingly sceptical . The house of cards is wobbling.
Now it is the turn of the drought alarmists.
It may be simplistic but it has been pointed out that an increase of 1 degree is the least you can expect when you go on holiday.
” … and their own standing would be compromised. ”
My guess is that to question the belief that manmade CO2 is endangering the planet = professional suicide in many sectors.
It is more valuable for those members of the public who haven’t done so already to wake up to the “climate” scam and start fighting back against the politicians and all the other eco-terrorists
Beware of Swedes bearing prophesies – they are usually wrong.
On 21st June 2018, Saint Greta Thunberg prophesied that ‘climate change will wipe out all humanity unless we stop using fossil fuels over the next five years’. Well, we didn’t stop using fossil fuels and guess what – we are still here (assuming we make it through the next six days!).
To be fair, she said we would all be Doomed by then, not actually dead. But since we haven’t done away with fossil fuels, we are Doomed so we might as well just get on with whatever life we have left and stop all the climate change nonsense
The biggest tragedy of this appalling “science” is the brainwashing effect: people assume that the media are balanced and knowledgeable about what they report. Unfortunately, apart from GB, News there is little main-media opposition to the consensus drivel: good job that the internet exists: maybe (fond hope) some of the reporters will discover this site!
Test
As far as I can see Rockstrom went to a glorified school of gardening which has more staff than undergraduates. Weird. Guys like him are snake oil salesman whose main attribute is the gift of the gab. The whole 1.5 C/ 1.0 C thing is nonsense. It would take many pages to explain why but it is.
The word “arbitrary” comes to mind.
I knew it was cobblers within the first couple of sentences, but when I saw the “Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research” mentioned it just confirmed it…
Successor at Potsdam to Schellenhuber, (climate adviser to the Pope).
In 2017, he was a co-author with Christiana Figueres and John Schellnhuber et al, of a letter to policy makers, “World has three years left to stop dangerous climate change, warn experts.”
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/28/world-has-three-years-left-to-stop-dangerous-climate-change-warn-experts
Give them a little credit for their spirit of generosity. They could so easily have plumped for 1/2 °C or less but, no; opting for 1°C still leaves space for some other guardian of planetary righteousness to jump in with a yet smaller number for Nature to publish. Just wondering – do tipping points have to be positive half integers?
” the journal Nature ”
Along with RCP 8.5, anything from Nature goes in the circular file.
What happens to people when the temperature goes up by one Celsius degree (1.8 F °)? I haven’t noticed an issue. My low-to-high today will be about 11 C degrees or 20 F degrees. I’ll survive, as will the trees and animals.
I have yet to read what is supposed to happen that will cause “significant harm to humans”. However, I do know what will happen when atmospheric CO2 is reduced to zero or even 100 ppm.
This moving the goal posts is just one more in an endless string of lies from the climate fascists seeking control. According to Al Gore, by now the Arctic is free of ice, all the polar bears have starved or drown, and our planet is on fire. I think I will file this one with Gore’s nonsense–in the bin.
Not a very clever picture accompanying the Eco Business article because it is showing that “climate action” is actually only number 13 on the UN’s list of “Sustainable Development Goals”.
The picture shows a Nepalese(?) mom and daughter in an icy landscape. They look rather cold.
If the tipping point has already been reached we can now relax and might as well cancel all further Net Zero plans because there is nothing further that can be done.
Fortunately China, India, Brazil, Indonesia etc. are taking no notice of the net zero CO2 emissions farce and CO2 levels will continue to climb aiding plant growth and reducing famines rather than sending us on a downward spiral path to CO2 levels below which plants cannot survive as shelled marine animals continue to use CO2 for their shells.
Slightly off topic but I have just re read an excellent book from 25 years back (pubished by the BBC of all people prior to any woke interference). It reminded me of the amount of CO2 put into the atmosphere by volcanos which I guess undoes any ‘progress’ made by humans.
Most interesting. I have read that massive volcanic lava flows, forming huge shields over many years, were responsible for mass extinctions in the distant past.
Watch this video from Jim Steele a member of the CO2 coalition.
Then this one
If CO2 is effective at keeping heat in, why doesn’t deserts at the equator
overheat and melt
“global warming above 1°C is already causing significant harm to humans.”
What harm? A human being can’t possibly feel/experience an average global temp of 1C over the course of a long lifetime. When are they supposed to start paying attention to this – at age 4?
What humans can feel – suffer from and even die from – is the Urban Heat Island Effect. Urban settings can be:
“France’s national meteorological service has found an average annual difference between Paris and surrounding rural areas on the order of 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (4 – 5 degrees Fahrenheit).
During a heatwave, the difference “can reach close to 10 degrees Celsius”, said Meteo-France.”
Our EPA says that the urban center can retain as much as 22 F during the evening hours, because of the UHIE.
Yep, that is man-made – but only urban, not global.
A few handy graphics here: https://twitter.com/GaryWHall/status/1632473899400323074
I recall reading a post at WUWT about a “Real Time” experiment involving driving from the outskirts to the centre of a medium sized town, and back out again (late in the evening), which showed a similar variation.
Might have been mine. That’s one of the screen shots in the link I posted.German town. They sent a fleet of mopeds(?) with temp monitors out from the urban center to the edge of town (rural) and then had them return. Very informative, indeed.
Here’s link. Hit play:
https://weather.uni-freiburg.de/meteobike_extern/meteobike-animation/
“China is Throwing Away Fields of Electric Cars – Letting them Rot!”
This article, like most, is heavy on doom language but sparse on details. If we reached 1.0°c in 2015 then all the devastation should be obvious. But nobody seems to be able to describe the horrible results with any details. I haven’t noticed any in my area, have you?
All these people like the IPCC, UK’s Climate Change Committee and this lot have Skin in the Game. They must continue to frighten the children or they lose their jobs. What was the scientific basis for the 2 degs? The 1,5? Show me. Oh, it’s uncontrollable feedback? Where?
Well stated. The amount of “research” grant money is astounding, and it would be quickly eliminated for those not following the climate grift narrative. As with everything else in the Godless West–follow the money. Climate is the new religion of the left.
Yes the ‘irreversible’ ‘ tipping points ” and planetary biomass extinctions that we are told will inevitably occur when the worlds temperature passes 1.5 C – 2C …..Only to recall that between 130 000 and 115 000 years ago , when straight tusked elephants and hippopotami were basking in the salubrious Thames estuary , temperatures were 2C – 4C warmer than the present and the Arctic regions were
” 8C [ 14.4F] warmer than today . The implications are enormous . Even though the temperatures during the Eemian were 2.5C [ 4.5F] higher than even the most aggressive IPCC predictions , the Greenland ice sheet lost only a quarter of its mass . While 25% is significant it is far less than the predictions of total ice elimination in response to far less warming . Also polar bears evolved about 150 000 years ago and survived the Eemian warm period . The polar bears survived . Greenland didn’t melt . ”
And atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations hovered around 270 – 285ppm. What’s that “tipping point” again ?
https://co2coalition.org/facts/the-last-interglacial-was-8c-14f-warmer-than-today
Schellnhuber’s original 2° — thought up because politicians like simple things they can get a grip on — would only have brought us back to about the average of the Roman War Period.
That was downgraded to 1.5° (as I understand it) largely because there was no evidence on current trends that, whatever we did, 2° was on the cards on any realistic timescale.
That 1.5° looks likely to be reached during the upcoming El Niño. I see no evidence to support the hypothesis that this will presage planetary meltdown and I see even less evidence that the 1° we have supposedly just passed is going to be in any way meaningful.
I’m happy to listen to Rockström’s evidence if he can produce any. All I see so far is yet more handwaving, obfuscation, flannel, and shifting of goalposts “backed up” (if that’s the right phrase) by the usual computer-generated “proof”.
When are these charlatans finally going to be called out for what they are?
Find me a human who can tell the difference between 1 degree C in the atmosphere.
Indeed – average annual global temp over over 100 yrs time.
Old activist: ” I remember when I was 1 yr old and the average temp of the Earth was 1C cooler. Nursing was so much more comfortable then.
Trees in Scottish mountains love it, not that the BBC admit that.
Trees found growing at record altitudes up Scotland’s Munros
Trees have been found growing at record-breaking heights in Scotland’s mountains, according to new research by the University of Stirling.
The highest was a rowan 1,150m (3,773ft) up Sgurr nan Ceathreamhnan, a Munro in West Affric.
On Braeriach, Britain’s third highest mountain, a sitka spruce was found at 1,125m (3,691ft).
The trees could be a sign of how hilltop woodlands lost over thousands of years might be restored
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-65903065
‘Scientists have for years backed a goal to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, to avoid the most dangerous effects for the planet.’
No ‘scientists’ believe Man can ‘cap global warming.’ We learned very young that man can’t control the weather. Yet top climate scientist Johan Rockström says we can.
‘goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement to tackle climate’
M’kay. What’s better, to ‘cap’ it or to ‘tackle’ it?
‘In the new study, they added a “justice” element to work out what level of warming brings severe and widespread impacts for humans’
Meaning they aren’t serious, they are just preening for the elites.
Now it’s all too late, we can relax, stay warm, eat, drink and be merry.
We don’t require Net Zero or hectoring climate journalism, and Ms G Thunberg can catch up on missed science lessons.
And if she discovers sexual reproduction she will see the undoubted benefits of single use plastics first hand.
I thankyou, l shall take my coat….
I am confused: you tell me that we are heading for world record harvests, sub-Sahara is greening, the pacific islands are not sinking and the coral is doing well. You give me graphs to “prove” it. I accept what you tell me.
But all the “big” authorities tell me the converse. They too have graphs. Why shouldn’t I listen to those whose job it is to tell the truth? If they are lying deliberately will we not find them out snd destroy them like Trump and Johnson – or worse?
I am a scientist by culture and education, a Chartered Engineer, I work on demonstrable facts. I work on being (relatively) confident on outcomes. But all this is causing me increasing certainty that no one knows and we are heading for horrible unintended consequences and the completely wrong social, political and economic outcomes.
In two hundred years the world will have recovered from all of this of course and all will be well. Who will be in charge?
First: You, a scientist, are being lied to by the climate cult; period. The so-called climate “science” is a grift, sponsored by the CCP and abetted by their apparatchiks in the WHO, the WEF and the Climate Cult writ large. It is not your fault for questioning “the science” and the deniers–you are a victim of the mendacity of the climate cult. Regarding charts and graphs, as has been said, “Figures do not lie, but liars often figure.” It is an age old question that is best resolved by an analysis of motives. What motivates the “science deniers” is a desire to curtail the economic ruin concominant with developing the chimera of green energy. What motivates the climate cult is filthy lucre–research grants for the climate scientist and untold billions for the “Climate Industrial Complex” is borrow a term. As with all crimes–follow the money.
“Why shouldn’t I listen to those whose job it is to tell the truth?”
Wut?
You make the error of projecting your decency on others. These are not decent people.
” But all this is causing me increasing certainty that no one knows …. ”
That is correct, no one knows.
I sometimes read artcles from ‘Nature’.
It must be published by the Guardian group as I never come away without a sense of doom.
How do you become a “top climate scientist”?
But at least now the top climate scientists are telling us their thoughts on “justice” as they are now not just top scientists but top economists, top political policy experts and top social justice warriors.
Is there no end to their brilliant abilities?
Well stated/ Yes, they are legends in their own minds.
I wondered, too. I assumed it was just a journalist pumping up his credibility. But the article does say he is ‘the director of the Potsdam Institute.’
Which begs the question: “Is this the best they’ve got ?!?!”
‘“If we really care about people … we must understand that there is so much scientific evidence today that the safe and just landing zone is actually already surpassed,” he said.’
Cirrusly? From your top man?
“Climate Scientists” almost all appear to be self-selected. I.e. They SAY that they are climate scientists without actually doing any SCIENCE in the field. And, of course, they are only recognised by other ‘climate scientists’ if they bow down to the Great Global Worming scam.
“So science that proves ….” No genuine scientist would write that.
Hose pipe ban Kent and Sussex. I wondered her a few days ago how soon it would happen despite the reservoirs being full or nearly full. Catastrophism triumphant.
https://mailchi.mp/southeastwater.co.uk/an-urgent-update-about-your-water-supply-2747138?e=793bf5030f
Quite unbelievable Nigel. Here in Barham, the Nailbourne is still flowing through the village in mid June – no living resident has ever known it to flow here beyond early May. Then again coming under the old Folkestone and District Water company (now Affinity Water) we do not have a hosepipe ban and never did in all of 2022. Half a mile away though its SE Water and they now do!
Don’t forget that humans don’t use much water; we generally borrow it and then return it to the environment.
Less than 1/2 of 1% of the total UK rainfall is borrowed by the UK population.
“You don’t buy beer – you rent it.”
How can they even call Rockström “Climate Scientist” The only degree the man has is a “water specialist” from Swedens “Lantbruksinstitut” (Agricultural Institute, witch was formed in the 1970’s to promote Swedish agriculture) It’s not even a real University! All other promotions have been purely political and in environmental and “sustainability” studies. More like Social Anthropology than Natural Science.
You neglected to mention his degree in lesbian Dance Studies.