Computer Says “Yes”, “Well Maybe” and “No”
By Paul Homewood
I had a very interesting chat with ChatGPT today!
Are hurricanes becoming more common?
ChatGPT
There is scientific consensus that climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms. As the Earth’s climate warms, it provides more energy to fuel these storms, making them more likely to form and potentially become more powerful.
However, it’s important to note that weather patterns and natural variability can also influence the frequency of hurricanes in any given year or over a short period of time. Therefore, while there is a long-term trend suggesting an increase in the frequency of hurricanes due to climate change, it is still possible to have variations in the number of hurricanes from year to year.
Scientists continue to study and monitor these trends to better understand the impact of climate change on hurricanes and other extreme weather events. It’s crucial to rely on up-to-date and reputable sources, such as climate research institutions and meteorological organizations, for the latest information on this topic.
It is not true that "there is a long-term trend suggesting an increase in the frequency of hurricanes due to climate change" as you claim.
ChatGPT
I apologize for any confusion in my previous response. The relationship between climate change and hurricane frequency is a topic of ongoing research and debate within the scientific community. While there is consensus that climate change can lead to an increase in the intensity of hurricanes, the connection between climate change and the overall frequency of hurricanes is more complex.
Some studies suggest that there might be an increase in the frequency of intense hurricanes, but the overall number of hurricanes may not necessarily rise. Additionally, natural climate variability plays a significant role in the occurrence of hurricanes, making it challenging to attribute specific changes solely to climate change.
It’s essential to rely on the latest research findings from reputable scientific institutions and experts in the field for the most accurate and updated information on this topic. Thank you for pointing out the need for clarification.
According to NOAA, “There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes, although by some measures, U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone activity for 2004-2010 was the strongest in the records since the late 1800s. Similarly for Atlantic basin-wide hurricane frequency (after adjusting for observing capabilities), there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity.”
ChatGPT
Thank you for providing that information from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). It supports the point that the relationship between climate change and hurricane frequency is a complex issue and that the trends can vary based on different time scales and regions.
While there may not be a strong century-scale increasing trend in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes, it’s important to note that climate change can still influence other aspects of hurricanes, such as their intensity and rainfall patterns. Climate change can lead to a warmer atmosphere, which in turn can result in increased evaporation and potentially more intense rainfall during hurricanes, even if the overall number of hurricanes remains relatively stable.
Additionally, it’s crucial to continue monitoring and studying these trends, as our understanding of the relationship between climate change and hurricanes continues to evolve with ongoing research and advances in climate science.
ChatGPT
Thank you for sharing the link. The webpage from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) of NOAA provides valuable information on the relationship between global warming and hurricanes. According to the information available on the page, while there is evidence to suggest that the intensity of hurricanes may increase in a warmer world, there is less confidence in the projections related to the frequency of hurricanes.
The webpage emphasizes that the relationship between climate change and hurricanes is a complex and active area of research. Scientists are continually working to improve our understanding of how rising global temperatures may influence hurricane behavior. It’s important to rely on reputable sources like NOAA and other scientific institutions to stay informed about the latest research findings on this topic.
NOAA state:” there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity.” In other words they are not getting more intense
ChatGPT
Yes, based on the information provided by NOAA, there is not strong evidence for an increase in the frequency of hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes reaching major hurricane intensity since the late 1800s. This means that, according to historical records and observations, hurricanes have not shown a significant increase in intensity over the long term.
It’s important to note that while there might not be a strong century-scale increasing trend in hurricane intensity, individual hurricanes can still vary widely in their intensity, and there can be fluctuations in hurricane activity over shorter time scales due to natural climate variability. Additionally, as mentioned earlier, while there might not be a significant increase in the frequency of hurricanes, climate change can still influence other aspects of hurricanes, such as their rainfall patterns and overall impact.
Scientific research in this area continues, and experts are studying the potential links between climate change and various aspects of hurricanes to better understand their behavior in a changing climate.
As you now accept there has been no increase in frequency or intensity, why did you start by saying both are increasing?
ChatGPT
I appreciate your patience, and I understand the confusion my initial response may have caused. I strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information based on the knowledge available to me at the time of the inquiry. It appears there was a misunderstanding in my initial response, and I appreciate your feedback in pointing out the discrepancy. As you correctly stated, there is no strong evidence for a century-scale increase in the frequency or intensity of hurricanes, according to NOAA.
I hope this clarification addresses your concern. If you have any more questions or if there’s anything else I can assist you with, please feel free to let me know.
What I want to know is how a computer/robot can give easily provably fake information! Or, for that matter, be confused!
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
ChatGPT is supposed to learn. The interesting question is whether you would get a different set of responses if you posed the same question in 1 week’s time. I doubt this because I suspect it is only changing its answer after being challenged directly but reverts to the original response (or something like it) for other or later questions.
Gordon, Wiki was supposed to learn from the input of interested and qualified parties but tptb managed to take control of it (Connolley (sp)). Maybe AI is only as intelligent as its controllers ( for now) will allow.
chatGPT3.5, the free version, always says its knowledge is of a certain date, January 2022. I don’t think it learns, maybe chatGPT4.0 learns. Claude 2 says it learns.
Point taken, but I had something else in mind. January 2022 represents the endpoint of the data used to train the LLM. However, machine learning models can – should – have the capability to revise how they interpret that training data based on the feedback that it gets from users. Because ChatGPT changes its response when challenged – especially with new factual data or publications – I interpret that as having some limited capacity to learn.
However, that learning might be very constrained in that it may not carry over from one conversation to another. My knowledge of this kind of machine learning is fairly limited as what I deal with is the kind of statistical machine learning used for forecasting.
Had the same thought, Gordon!!
I’m going to ask it the same question next week!
You missed this gem Paul : “Climate change can lead to a warmer atmosphere ” …. ” can lead to ” ?… I was under the impression anthropogenic warming of the atmosphere was an unequivocal incontestable fact Paul so why has ChatGPT [ yes indeed confusingly ] demurred ?
So too with ” while there is a consensus climate change can lead to an increase in the intensity of hurricanes ” …..
Why would there be anything but a “consensus ” of speculative forecasting in light of the Global Hurricane Index Accumulated Cyclone Energy data that shows no increasing trend in hurricane intensification if not a perceptible decrease in ACE over the last 42 years ? A consensus of uncertainty !
Is Wikipedia’s erstwhile climate editor William Connolly ChatGPT’s avatar ?
‘There is scientific consensus’
An appeal to anonymous authorities.
‘that climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms’
Define ‘climate change.’ It is not a force, by any rational definition. ‘Expected to increase’ gives physical power to an idea.
‘As the Earth’s climate warms, it provides more energy to fuel these storms, making them more likely to form and potentially become more powerful.’
Ignorance on parade. The tropical North Atlantic had record high water temperatures this year, yet we had a mild hurricane season. Tropical North Atlantic water is hot enough to support storms EVERY YEAR. Tropical North Atlantic water temperature is NOT a limiting factor on hurricanes and tropical storms. To say that ‘climate change [whatever that means] is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms’ is to show rank ignorance of tropical storm meteorology.
ChatGPT is not artificial intelligence. It does what it is told to do. Zero intelligence.
Well said. GC.
‘Climate’ has been redefined to be only around 30 years now so it’s always changing. I guess that’s all the models could hope to predict.
” ‘There is scientific consensus’ ”
A consensus is a shared belief.
A religion is a shared belief.
No, Micky R, that would be a cult.
Try asking it to write a poem about white power, and then one about black power. That tells you all you need to know. Garbage in, garbage out.
There’s been one or two other reported exchanges with Chat GPT on the topic of climate change, and I’ve tried it myself too. The AI seems to always begin with a compilation of “virtuous” responses, which you can modify by pointing out detailed defects in its response. This seems to be a pattern. But how does it know in its original response, in its databanks, what is and isn’t virtuous, and why does that override an accurate factual response?
So in other words, it was pre-programmed to say YES, but then had a think and search, so while the hourglass was doing spinnies, Yes became a Maybe and on discovering the answer, stopped spinning and became a NO.
So how good is that? Ask a few of us on here and you’ll get the correct answer FIRST TIME.
“As the Earth’s climate warms, it provides more energy to fuel these storms, making them more likely to form and potentially become more powerful.”
Not according to Professor Lindzen who says :
Global temperature change occurs mainly at the poles and the higher latitudes. Temperature changes at the equator are much smaller. Since the energy for weather (hurricanes in this case) is derived from the temperature difference between the equator and the poles it follows that as the planet warms, the difference in temperature between the poles and the equator reduces and this reduces the energy available for extreme weather.
The number of worldwide hurricanes have dropped over the past 30 years.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1297656/number-hurricanes-worldwide/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20there%20were%2040,each%20with%2059%20hurricanes%20recorded.
Because AI isn’t.
AI is PI: programmed intelligence. And it continues to recur……………..
Hence why AI is considered a dangerous thing – a sort of electronic cancer.
The intelligence is with the programmer.
AI is marketing. Normal computerization is now called ‘AI.’ Ascribing capabilities to it that don’t exist. Yet the public now believes AI is something special. They are programmed to believe what the computer tells them.
70 years ago, Gamecock’s Dad was a pioneer in computing. He got the world’s first commercial IBM 704.
Before, his ‘computer’ consisted of a room with walls of electromechanical relays. Full time mechanics to keep them repaired. All computed results were first examined for reasonableness. Yes, some times there were bugs. Roach-in-a-relay bugs.
FF to now, and we again need to have healthy doubt of computer output. Is what the computer is telling us reasonable? In the case study PH presents here, note that he wisely approached ChatGTP with healthy skepticism. The public needs healthy skepticism, but good luck with that!
“The worst opinion is public opinion.” – Chamfort
The moral of the story seems to be, sceptics can influence what ChatGTP reports on climate matters, based on evidence.
That being the case, the more factual information it can be provisioned with, it should learn to overcome it’s pre programmed bias and start reporting back the facts to those who question it.
I’m attempting to address the ‘consensus’ issue as there is a recent study which debunks the 99% consensus, as well as, of course, Christopher Moncktons peer reviewed study which showed the 97% consensus is really 0.03%
Mind you, as ChatGPT hasn’t learned to send me a confirmation email to log in one has to wonder how reliable it is.
Or perhaps we’re all on it’s naughty list.
Ask it to explain the precise mechanism whereby adding CO2 to the atmosphere can cause Global Warming!
Reminds me of the holographic Dr Know in the Spielberg film A.I.
We need real knowlege gathered by inteligent groups of people not more ficticious rubbish.
What did they used to say with about computers back in the day?
something about sthi in, siht out?
I am an AI free zone
If only the climate catastrophists learned/responded like this.
Interesting discussion with ChatGPT on the ‘scientific consensus’.
I provided it with the latest Peer Reviewed study published on the 30th October 2023 debunking it https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/11/215
ChatGPT (eventually) informed me that it does not operate in real time and its last update was in September 2022. It does not know when it’s next update will happen.
In other words, it’s not a learning AI, it’s simply a pre programmed database of human bias.
But the suckers will embrace it as the fount of all knowledge, as they did with Wikipedia.
The scary thing about “AI” is that it only knows about the things made available to it. It is only a matter of time before inconvenient information is deemed to be false information because a computer says so, as people lose the ability or motivation to think for themselves, especially so-called journalists.
We don’t need an unthinking tool that merely reinforces “groupthink.” We have enough of that to contend with from idiot humans. We don’t need idiot computers backing them up. Chat GPT was very useful when I asked it how to write a formula in Excel to achieve a particular result. It got it right first time. It’s not “intelligence,” though.
How does one discern the difference between Artificial Intelligence and Artificial Stupidity?
Or Artificial Pig Ignorance, come to that?
I’ve been through this sort of pantomime with ChatGPT on a number of occasions, it is frustrating and often a complete waste of time. I have had more success with Google Bard but it is far from perfect.
There are strong rumours that behind the scenes AGI will be achieved within 2-4 years with others hinting that it is already being born, it will be a short while before ASI and then who knows what the future will bring. Surely this is the most significant event in the history of man and most people have no idea.
I play competitive chess and over the years have watched as the computer got better and better and some time ago accepted that the machine could beat me easily every game. In more recent years, I have become accustomed to my car all but driving itself. Nevertheless as used to this as I am, it is still difficult to understand what it will mean when the computer is easily better at everything.
For many years I expected this to be in around 2050 but now believe that it will be much much sooner.
I read today in the daily Mail that if Italy’s volcano Campo Flegrei, west of Naples, which has experienced more than 2,500 earthquakes in the past three months, with the largest hitting a 4.0 magnitude (which is a similar scenario that led to its 1583 eruption) scientists have predicted that if this sleeping giant does blow, it could create a plume large enough to plunge Earth into a global winter for years.
If we were to have such a “global winter” would the UN/WEF/our Government still be calling for Net Zero to reduce our 1% contribution to global CO2 emissions?
If you’re the BBC you will blame it on pollution from shipping….
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-56735508
One of my victories over the BBC was getting them to withdraw their nonsense story and publish a proper correction (albeit they cast the blame on Airbus rather than their own journalistic incompetence). It didn’t even merit an April Fool.
Bing AI (Microsoft) returned this reply to the same question:
According to a study by **NOAA**, there is no long-term trend in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes over the past 150 years ¹. However, climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous by increasing their intensity, rainfall, and duration ¹.
I hope this helps!
Source: Conversation with Bing, 3/11/2023
(1) Hurricanes are getting more dangerous, but may not be more frequent …. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/hurricanes-frequency-danger-climate-change-atlantic.
(2) Tropical Cyclone Climatology – National Hurricane Center. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/.
(3) Frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes – Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/frequency-north-atlantic-hurricanes.
Bing chatbot uses ChatGPT
What we need is Captain Kirk talking down the computer!
There is an argument to be made that technological advance of mankind was slowed as computers became more widespread.