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South Africa to Break Paris Agreement Promises Because It Cannot Shut Down Coal

November 12, 2023

By Paul Homewood

h/t Mike Rennoldson

 

 

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Three senior South African government officials told Reuters on Thursday that South Africa will miss its climate change targets under the Paris Agreement because shutting down the country’s eight coal-fired power plants would cause a massive energy crisis.

South Africa’s big miss is no small matter for the climate change movement because, as Reuters pointed out, it is “the world’s 11th biggest greenhouse gas emitter and has one of the world’s highest per capita emissions.”

The original plan called for South Africa to shut down six of its coal-fired power plants by 2030 and two more by 2034. The officials who spoke to Reuters said those goals are now considered “unrealistic,” although the government might set a “new decommissioning target for 2035.”

South Africa is already in the midst of a major energy crisis, even with all those coal plants puffing away. The World Bank announced in mid-October that talks were underway for a billion-dollar loan to help South Africa recover from rolling blackouts that have put a major crimp on economic growth.

The World Bank already loaned South Africa’s state utility company, Eskom, $497 million in 2022 to decommission one of its coal power plants. The plant, an aging facility located near the city of Komati east of Johannesburg, was shuttered last October, but the “transition to cleaner energy” was a disaster.

The South African government did not consult with the 1,600 local workers employed by the Komati plant or help them find new jobs. Energy officials fretted the loss of the plant would jeopardize the power grid, sowing panic, confusion, and vain hopes the Komati plant might reopen.

Eskom estimates that roughly 80 percent of South Africa’s power comes from its coal-fired plants, which are becoming unreliable due to mismanagement and corruption. Instead of “transitioning” to green energy, South Africa is leaning on its coal plants harder than ever as it experiences the worst blackouts in its history.

The South African government has said it would need about $80 billion to finance a proper transition to green energy, a sum that seems very unlikely to be forthcoming.

The United Nations published a report on Wednesday that said governments around the world planned to exceed the Paris Agreement’s limits on fossil fuels by over 110 percent by 2030. Meeting the Paris Agreement limits would require the almost total worldwide shutdown of coal power plants by 2040 – but the heaviest coal users, China and India, are still increasing their coal-fired generator capacity.

https://www.breitbart.com/africa/2023/11/10/south-africa-break-paris-agreement-promises-because-cannot-shut-down-coal/

Anybody who actually believed South Africa’s Paris pledges must want their brain examining!

All they ever wanted was some money from the West, the odd $80 billion or so. And given the corruption in the country, I doubt whether much of that would have been spent on green energy.

Renewable energy currently supplies just 3% of South Africa’s energy.

41 Comments
  1. pom52 permalink
    November 12, 2023 9:43 am

    Anyone who thought that coal power generating countries would give them up is more stupid than anyone can imagine.
    In fact get ready for more coal development and power station building in other parts of Africa.

    • It doesn't add up... permalink
      November 12, 2023 2:45 pm

      Once upon a time when Eskom was still being reasonably well managed they had plans to expand over sub Saharan Africa, integrating and reviving the major hydro projects like Cahora Basso and Kariba and building more coal, exploiting gas and a grid to connect it all. I know, because I was involved in their consultation.

      It is sad to see that vision dissipated.

    • Matthew Dalby permalink
      November 15, 2023 7:49 am

      The UK was a coal power generating country and gave it up.
      Must mean successive governments have been stupid.

      • November 15, 2023 8:20 am

        The UK sits on billions of tons of coal, it needs to be exploited

      • Matthew Dalby permalink
        November 15, 2023 9:28 am

        Given that most of our coal fired power stations have been demolished but we’ve got plenty of gas fired plants I would of thought fracking would make far more economic sense.

  2. November 12, 2023 10:02 am

    South Africa has a population of 60 million compared to the official UK at 67 million (the latter probably way more but that’s another issue.) It is worth noting SA has a larger dispatchable electricity generation capacity (about 55GW mostly coal) than the UK. If they are already suffering blackouts what chance do we have.

    • gezza1298 permalink
      November 12, 2023 11:58 am

      They have different problems to us such as the coal for the power stations being taken and sold off for export. They also have the supply cabling being stolen and sold for scrap. Germany has suffered that where somebody has stripped out a windmill of its cabling.

    • Tony Cole permalink
      November 12, 2023 12:08 pm

      The failure of the coal fleet in RSA is largely due to political interference. The appointment of incompetent cadres in critical roles. The theft of good coal to export, with the replacement of poor quality coal (& rock) which damages the boilers etc. Sabotage of equipment is common for cadres to get maintenance contracts. Etc etc. It is a complete mess with the police colluding with the politicians involved.

      • November 12, 2023 12:26 pm

        Thanks Tony (and gezza) for the heads up. I knew things were bad in SA, things must be really desperate when coal is being stolen!

  3. CheshireRed permalink
    November 12, 2023 10:22 am

    It’s an obvious point to make but if solar was half-decent South Africa should be covered in panels. The fact renewables contribute a measly 3% of their energy reveals the truth about solar energy.

    • November 12, 2023 10:34 am

      Cheshire it’s obvious to you, me and most on here but sadly not to the vast majority who just believe anything the MSM tell them. The average public should know a bit about the South African climate but I doubt they could quantify the difference to ours. The lowest insolation in SA is 20% higher than the very best in the UK and large tracts of the country are double the UK best.
      If solar doesn’t make sense there we have no chance….but we are not supposed to know that!

    • bobn permalink
      November 12, 2023 4:07 pm

      They’ve tried solar farms but they get destroyed by thieves almost as fast as they are built. The bandits just come and dissasemble them and take the panels away to sell on the black market. To have solar in SA (probably most of Africa) you need 24hr armed guards (about 2 per 100m sq). That adds alot of cost!

      • November 12, 2023 4:29 pm

        Heat pumps outside homes probably wouldn’t last long there either, by the sound of it.

      • November 12, 2023 11:54 pm

        but most areas wouldn’t be cold enough to use them

      • Gamecock permalink
        November 13, 2023 12:47 am

        Even the grid is vulnerable. Troops come and steal the copper wire for scrap.

  4. Rowland P permalink
    November 12, 2023 10:43 am

    Interesting to note that our coal fired generation is almost constantly in use although only producing a measly 1.19GW at the time of writing. Enough to boil a few kettles but! Or how many homes will that supply? And where is the coal coming from as a matter of further interest? And what carbon taxes are having to be paid by them?

    • It doesn't add up... permalink
      November 12, 2023 3:09 pm

      Our coal imports now come mainly from the USA and Colombia. The fall in electricity demand as a result of high prices means that relative to expectations there is much less demand for UKA carbon allowances, as a result of which prices have fallen sharply, helping coal economics. The coal price is around 120/tonne CIF Rotterdam, or £100/tonne, which gives before tax electricity at around £43/MWh. UKA prices are halved at £44/tCO2e, roughly doubling the cost which works out cheaper than Drax biomass and competitive with CCGT.

      https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CMZ23/overview?orderBy=tradeTime&orderDir=desc

      • November 12, 2023 6:41 pm

        Thanks IDAU. The graph you’ve linked to, does that show the (European) carbon tax on coal used to generate electricity?
        The vertical scale being GBP per tonne of CO2 ?

      • It doesn't add up... permalink
        November 12, 2023 7:08 pm

        It shows UKA carbon allowance prices in £/tonneCO2e for December redemption. The uptick back above £40 is probably the result of the increased coal burn.

        I have been pushing for common sense on coal use since summer 2021 when gas became rather more expensive: that would entail baseload running, which would at least have the benefit of not causing significant waste in start up and cool down costs when it is run purely as a last resort backup. Much better to run as baseload, which is what the plants were designed for.

        However, I suspect that we are seeing no more than simple economics, unclouded by absurdly excessive UKA prices (which touched £100/tCO2e at the peak).

      • November 12, 2023 9:35 pm

        Thanks IDAU, I think this is the Rotterdam coal price data (?)

        https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LU*0/futures-prices

        What is the currency?

      • It doesn't add up... permalink
        November 13, 2023 5:13 am

        USD. It’s known as the API2 quote, CIF Rotterdam with nominal quality of 6,000kcal/kg, which is almost exactly 7MWh/tonne gross calorific value.

      • November 13, 2023 1:08 pm

        Thanks again IDAU.

        If I’ve understood this correctly: with a broad brush, an API2 price of £100/tonne creates a pre-tax price of £43/MWh for generated electricity in the UK. Is the £43/ MWh the pre-tax price to the end user? Or is that the pre-tax price to the domestic supplier e.g. EON ?

      • It doesn't add up... permalink
        November 13, 2023 5:56 pm

        It’s the wholesale cost at the power station grid connection meter. They will of course sell at market prices, and only when that makes economic sense. There are many other charges added before you get the bill: transmission on the grid, distribution, balancing services, losses, subsidies to renewables, other green charges and subsidies such as EcoHomes, smart meters, funding for Warm Homes discount, accounting and billing, etc.

      • November 13, 2023 6:31 pm

        Thanks IDAU.

  5. Gamecock permalink
    November 12, 2023 11:26 am

    ‘The World Bank announced in mid-October that talks were underway for a billion-dollar loan to help South Africa recover from rolling blackouts that have put a major crimp on economic growth.’

    A ‘loan?’ Wink, wink. And ‘recover?’ Are they building “safe spaces” for the traumatized people? Counseling?

    ‘The World Bank already loaned South Africa’s state utility company, Eskom, $497 million in 2022 to decommission one of its coal power plants.’

    Half a $billion to decommission? They can’t just turn out the lights and just slip out the back, Jack?

  6. Joe Public permalink
    November 12, 2023 11:58 am

    “South Africa to Break Paris Agreement Promises Because It Cannot Shut Down Coal”

    Yet earlier this year, Bloomberg reported:

    “South Africa Beats Climate Goal as Blackouts Slash Emissions” 😉

    Where there’s a will, there’s a way.

    • Tony Cole permalink
      November 12, 2023 12:12 pm

      The inability to operate almost 3000MW due to an incorrectly installed stack meant that the country had cut power supply on a rolling basis for more than a year. South Africans get up, check the App to know when they will not have power, then plan their day. A complete circus

  7. Devoncamel permalink
    November 12, 2023 1:23 pm

    Leaving the SA issue aside for the moment what struck me was this gem;
    ‘Meeting the Paris Agreement limits would require the almost total worldwide shutdown of coal power plants by 2040.’
    It shows how worthless Paris or any CoP conference is to the real world. Only dreamy ideologues and the troughers pay any attention.
    As for SA, it’s a basket case economy that only a fool believes will dance to the climate scam tune.

    • Gamecock permalink
      November 12, 2023 2:21 pm

      . . . and renewables are decadent. SA will never be able to afford it. Only the rich West pursues them, and Western colonialists venture around the world trying to get the primitives to use them. “Renewables are just what you need to lift you out of poverty. See, we’re prosperous and have renewables. Don’t you want to be prosperous, too?”

      • It doesn't add up... permalink
        November 12, 2023 3:41 pm

        The West will not stay rich for long if it continues to pursue renewables.

      • Gamecock permalink
        November 13, 2023 12:50 am

        Oh, yeah. We are in late decadence in the prosperity, decadence, collapse cycle.

  8. Tim Spence permalink
    November 12, 2023 2:23 pm

    Beats the world record for ‘lying climate activist’, should be dope tested after this performance.

  9. John Hultquist permalink
    November 12, 2023 4:06 pm

    @ 12:26, Ray S. wrote —
    things must be really desperate when coal is being stolen!

    In the USA, all sorts of things are stolen, sometimes at great cost to be replaced.
    Catalytic converters on autos being one. Another being the wires from lighting of high school football fields. A few years ago, folks were taking the wires from lighted road signs. Autos are stolen daily in large cities.
    Thieves know these sorts of things are difficult for authorities to trace, make arrests, and get a conviction. Even then, there is minimal punishment.
    Rather than desperate, I think folks are opportunistic when the society is suffering from mismanagement and corruption.
    Not to say many are not desperate in SA!

    • November 12, 2023 9:09 pm

      Agreed John, but it must be desperate when something normally as low value as coal is being stolen. Or is coal suddenly a high value product?

      • John Hultquist permalink
        November 12, 2023 10:33 pm

        I am far removed both geographically and mentally from those segments of society and get information from reading. A decent report from SA would be nice — but I’m not going there.

  10. markl permalink
    November 12, 2023 4:29 pm

    Has any country made their “climate goals”? I think not. It’s all virtue signaling. Reality strikes when they try to implement their fantasy goals.

  11. November 12, 2023 6:49 pm

    O/T Who are XR really ?
    And why did they hijack the 11am 2 minute silence yesterday
    and make it about dead Gaza children instead ?
    As they staged a stunt in Trafalgar Square which was supposed to offbounds for Palestinian protests

    Why was a BBC guy promoting it ?
    And why is he today campaigning against Tommy Robinson falsely smearing him as far right ?
    Links .. https://twitter.com/paullewismoney/status/1723333872669069674

    Empty shoes for lost lives: Extinction Rebellion’s heartbreak plea for a ceasefire in Gaza


    XR article pays lip service to Israeli dead children
    but the care is false cos neither tweets nor article mention kidnapped Israeli children

  12. Nigel Hill permalink
    November 12, 2023 10:03 pm

    I spent three months in South Africa in 1969. Everything worked very well.
    There was separate development for coloured and blacks which required strong treatment. Now everyone can vote which is nice.

Comments are closed.