Climate change: Fewer wild swans returning to UK in winter–BBC
By Paul Homewood
Guest post by Ian Magness
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67407574
Ian’s Response:
Let’s start with the title "Climate change: Fewer wild swans…". What we are strictly dealing with here are the numbers of Bewick’s swans. However, that’s not what the title says so lets’s look at the bigger picture. To do this, we must look at the Bewick’s very close relatives the Whooper swans. Certainly in terms to the whole of southern and central British Isles, both birds are strictly non-breeding winter visitors. Both breed in Arctic wastelands and just come here when weather and ground/feeding conditions become untenable in October or November. Both would SURELY follow similar overall population responses to global warming, other factors being equal.
Below is a screenshot from the BTO website. It shows Whoopers gaining in UK winter population hugely in the period 95/96 to 20/21. It is regarded as an "Amber list" (some concern in population) bird in the UK but, globally (IUCN designation), it is of "least concern". Around 20,000 are believed to have visited our shores in 2015/16 and the number is increasing, with the statistics indicating that the rise in Whoopers outweighs the decline in Bewick’s.
So, what of Bewick’s? You will note that Briggs claims that "the global population is declining fast". Really? That’s not what the BTO website tells us – at all. Photo 0474 (also BTO) shows that Bewicks are also of IUCN "least concern". They are now red-listed in the UK as the wintering population has been declining since around the turn of the century. The BTO reckons that there are perhaps around 3,500 birds now visiting and this compares to over 7,000 in around 1999/2000 (see photo 0470 from Birds of Wiltshire, 2007). However, it is also notable from Birds of Wiltshire that the UK population was a mere 1,500 or so around 1950. It thus appears that the UK population is still over double that in 1950, despite all that dreadful global warming. Funny the BBC didn’t mention that….
The next BTO screenshot may have the answer to Slimbridge’s population issue. The map shows gains in the east as well as losses in the west. The point is that western Britain is on the edge of the swans’ palearctic range. There we have it yet again – bird populations waxing and waning on the edge of their ranges – twas ever thus.
So, "fewer wild swans"? I don’t think so, just normal adjustments.
What about the late Bewicks’ arrivals this year? The next screenshot has the answer – most of the time, relatively few birds arrive in October. November sees the big arrivals and major variations due to both Arctic and northern European autumnal weather conditions will occur. Off-topic but the summer swifts got hammered in Wiltshire in 2023 due to the abysmal July. Almost our entire population disappeared by end-July – weeks earlier than normal and early-September birds wouldn’t be surprising. So significant weather-related bird migration changes are entirely normal.
Overall, I just don’t buy all this "climate change is to blame for stopping our Bewick’s coming here" nonsense. Historical evidence, as ever, is far more nuanced and shows population distribution p
atterns far from convincingly following global warming, or indeed Keeling Curve, patterns.
Finally, this makes my blood boil:
Kane Briggs, senior research officer at the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust reserve, said the "saddest fact" was one day the swans may never return to Britain.
"This is happening right in front of our eyes," he said. "Climate change is playing its part here."
ABSOLUTE CRAP on all fronts! Our children will not know what a Bewick’s looks like. File that one with snow.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
I have heard that some birds are avoiding regions with increasing numbers of windmills.
More likely they are trying to avoid areas with exploding populations of nitwits.
One of their first landing spots in England, on Graveney Marsh, is about to be covered with 1000 acres of glass for a solar subsidy farm. In the moonlight 1000 acres of glass probably looks like a nice bit of marsh for an overnight rest and feeding spot. If that doesn’t do for them there’s always the exploding 700 MWh Li-ion battery.
Or not avoiding the 200mph turbine blades?
Meanwhile —
“As a result of the rash and hasty expansion of renewable energy from wind power, the populations of almost 50% of all bird species have significantly decreased”.
“The most widespread destruction of nature since the Second World War”
German Ornithological Society 4th October 2017
If they don’t avoid the offshore windfarms in particular they’re almost certainly being killed by them. So yes, their decline in the UK is caused by Climate Change, but only by the introduction of these awful, expensive and deadly-to-wildlife windfarms.
What warming world?? I suggest the BBC do some proper investigations and look at the increasing cold regions, snow fall, enlarging ice sheets etc etc, but then again, I don’t think the BBC will, sort of spoils the false narrative
‘Fewer wild swans returning’
‘Wild.’ Means they do what they want to do, not what you want them to do.
But how wild can they be if they have names, i.e., Maisie and Maifield?
The BBC reports fewer wild swans but more bee-eaters and black-winged stilts.
Swings & roundabouts, some you win, some you lose.
What about avian flu? We had three swan deaths in our Thamesside pond last winter and this year’s Thames swan count was down 40%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66317374
But of course in BBC land a change must be down to climate change.
Here in Latvia we have had avian flu in the summer months on inland lakes. Mostly affected have been black headed gulls, but some swans also. I guess some species of bird are more susceptible.
Both Bewick and Whooper swans pass through our area on the coast both in spring and in autumn. A few years back I had the chance to photo a mix of both breeds together with various species of geese, they had arrived on their spring migration back to the north but were greeted to lying snow and decided to wait before continuing their journey. For several weeks they flew daily between inland fields and the Baltic sea where they spent the nights. The reason I guess was because it was warmer, and fewer predators.
What the so-called experts miss in their ignorance and need to blame climate change is that if the birds are only going as far as Germany rather than carrying on further to the UK they are actually conserving a lot of energy, and avoiding further hazards that come with migration. Their ability to adapt is shown clearly, which is a big plus for the species.
Not without reason do people say ‘is that true or did you hear it on the BBC?’ The Israelis have been doing some great send-ups of BBC news.
I had to watch yesterday’s BBC report about the weapons at the hospital in Gaza twice as it seemed so preposterous it had to be a send-up. But no, the BBC was seriously claiming vast stocks of automatic weapons were “hospital security”.
Babylon Bee said Hamas claimed they were for medicinal purposes, only.
They didn’t mention the RPGs, how strange….. Perhaps the hospital is in a rough area so security need them.
My local paper defined Martext – An ignorant preacher
Unfortunately my Oxford (Compact) Dictionary doesn’t list it.
merriam-webster claims it means “a blundering preacher”
Collins lists an obsolete but “a preacher who makes many mistakes”
But who, or what people could we apply it to (apart from the BBC)?
Courtesy of my local paper (The Australian) which defines
Martext – An ignorant preacher
merriam-webster claims it means “a blundering preacher”
Collins lists an obsolete but “a preacher who makes many mistakes”
Unfortunately my Oxford (Compact) Dictionary doesn’t list it.
But who, or what people could we apply it to (apart from the BBC)?
Probably the busiest bird migration route to the UK from mainland Europe to the UK runs over the shortest sea route with easy landing over the Romney Marsh particularly Dungeness in Kent. Obviously nobody in their right mid would even suggest putting a wind farm there…surely?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Cheyne_Court_Wind_Farm
The total lack of curiosity about actual causes is very depressing. Perhaps numbers are down because poor breeding seasons because of cold weather. Perhaps because of avian flu as others have suggested, perhaps fluctuations in the Earth’s magnetic field has made migration harder. Who knows, because it’s just always “climate change”.
‘Climate change’ is a cultist mantra. It has no actual meaning the way the BBC uses it. It is totalist language.