Nebraska’s Climate Scientists Afraid Of The Truth
By Paul Homewood
The above report is from a Nebraska news outlet, Omaha.com. Quite reasonably, the state government want to know what their climate might do as a result of natural and cyclical factors. Whether AGW makes any difference is neither here nor there; the underlying cyclical factors will still continue to have an effect.
It is therefore disgraceful that local scientists, no doubt public funded, refuse to cooperate.
University of Nebraska-Lincoln scientists at the meeting said they wouldn’t participate in the climate study if it excludes the influence of humans. Some said they wouldn’t be willing to ask others to consider doing the study, either.
Mark Svoboda, a climatologist with the university’s acclaimed National Drought Mitigation Center, said he would not be comfortable circulating a study proposal to his peers if it excluded the role of humans.
“Personally, I would not send it out,” Svoboda said.
Similarly, Martha Shulski, climatologist and director of the High Plains Regional Climate Center, told the committee that the study’s scope will determine her staff’s potential involvement.
“If it’s only natural (causes), but not human, we would not be interested,” she said.
Both centers are housed at UNL.
As the study of natural climate cycles seems to be beneath these “scientists”, perhaps I might offer my services. All the data is readily available from NOAA, so let’s start with precipitation.
Precipitation
- The worst droughts occurred during the 1930’s and 50’s.
- The trend line shows wetter than normal periods between 1900 and 1930, and later between 1960 through 2000.
- The driest year was 1934, and the wettest 1914. (These are hydrological years, ending September).
- There is no evidence that recent years have been more extreme or variable than in the past.
The above plot suggests cycles of about 30 years in length, and this cycle, and its effects, are well known amongst scientists – the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or AMO.
NOAA have this to say about the AMO.
Recent research suggests that the AMO is related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the Midwest and the Southwest. When the AMO is in its warm phase, these droughts tend to be more frequent and/or severe (prolonged?). Vice-versa for negative AMO. Two of the most severe droughts of the 20th century occurred during the positive AMO between 1925 and 1965: The Dustbowl of the 1930s and the 1950s drought. Florida and the Pacific Northwest tend to be the opposite – warm AMO, more rainfall.
And, as the graph below shows, we have been in the warm phase since the mid 1990’s.
It is likely that we will remain in the warm phase until the mid 2020’s.
Temperatures
- Both annual and summer temperature trends show a similar cyclical pattern to precipitation, and are also affected by the AMO.
- The summers of 1934 and 1936 were much hotter than in 2012.
- It is worth pointing out that, although the summer in 1936 was the hottest on record, the winter that year was the second coldest, thus bringing the average down. In terms of “extreme weather”, 1936 must rank as by far the most extreme on record.
- The State record high temperature of 118F was set at three sites – Geneva, Hartington and Minden – one in 1934, and two on separate days in 1936. This was two degrees higher than the highest set in 2012.
- At most stations, the top temperatures set in 1936 were about ten degrees higher than the highest in 2012.
Spring temperatures
It is worth taking a separate look at Spring temperatures, as it was the unusually mild Spring that was mainly responsible for the record annual temperature in 2012. ( Autumn and Winter temperature trends are similar to annual trends).
As the graph illustrates, there is absolutely no evidence at all of any trend to warmer Springs. Indeed Spring this year was colder than average, and the trend since the 1980’s suggests cooler Springs if anything.
This advice may be relevant for agricultural planning purposes.
Summary
1) We can expect to see more drier than normal years, and less wetter, until the AMO turns cold, probably in the mid 2020’s.
2) Similarly we can expect to see more warmer than normal years till then.
3) The underlying trend in the last century suggests little in the way of long term changes in either temperature or precipitation.
4) From the available evidence, there must be a very low probability of a return to the extreme heat and drought of the 1930’s in the foreseeable future.
It is easy to see why Nebraska’s climatologists are so afraid to publish this sort of analysis, as it totally undermines their warnings of armageddon, at least on a local scale.
References
All data from NOAA
Cheques Payable To “Paul Homewood”.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Paul – don’t forget to send the State of Nebraska a bill. This is a far more cogent summary than they are likely to get from the climate scientists – that’s if they come off their high horse.
Send this to Governor Dave Heineman with a bill for the $44,000 payable by December 1st.. Also send a copy to the article’s author: Nancy Gaarder.
I’ve emailed Nancy.
Paul, is this NOAA data before or after data tampering, NOAA’s cooling high temperatures from the MWP forward? Thanks for sending it to Nancy Gaardner. I join with others and urge you to send it to Gov. Dave, whatever state congressional committee members are delegated to consider the economics of climate cycles, and the main university fools, formerly called scientists, who refuse to be awake to and helpful with Reality. I apologize for delegating to you this responsibility because it actually belongs with all of us. You have done the work! Thanks.
I wish I had more money available to be able to support people like you.
Ian